Military Strengths-2 and More!

[Corvo the Crow]

On 1/7/2019 at 7:31 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

For the record, I lost access to my original forum name... 

I’m sorry if you thought that I meant you were banned or something. I mentioned your nick because you said I am reaching my conclusions from an ideological point, when your nick was Free Northman, not once but twice and your thoughts on the north and the northerners are well known as well. 

On 1/7/2019 at 7:31 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

Anyway, back to your point which is not a point. The layout of the tents is immaterial. We only get a partial picture of the Twins and its environment. The 7000 or so horses Robb brought with him will be camped whereever there is space for them. Obviously not amongst the tents. And the men will mingle freely, drinking and feasting. It is not intended to provide an exhaustive description of where every part of the army is camped.

So this in itself invalidates the non-point you try to make about the portion of the men Arya witnessed and who is in which tent. Other than the Karstarks you don’t know which men were with Robb and which with Roose.

Roose was already camped, Freys have been there even before Roose. Freys tell him they have thrown three feast tents and he can camp his host beside theirs.

Arya and Sandor “crested a rise and castle, rivers and camps all appeared at once” they are on a higher vantage point and see it all.

 

Also no on just knowing Karstarks. I have given quotes proving exactly which men couldn’t have come with Robb; Mountain clansmen as they are nor cavalry men, any noblemen who were not in Riverrun as we are told of each and every northman there not once but twice, in couincil and in the grove.

On 1/8/2019 at 3:05 PM, direpupy said:

Hang on there, the feasttents are not they only tents, in your own quote they speak of tents washed away by the water of the Green Fork because they where to close to the water. 

A few washed away tents, that’s all. As said above, Arya and Sandor are on a high vantage point. And as also said above, Roose brought others besides Karstarks, Clansmen, Lockes and Widow’s watch Flints at the very least.

 

On 1/8/2019 at 3:05 PM, direpupy said:

next its nowhere stated how many people each tents seats

No we are told. Barracks tents for two score footmen, feast tents able to seat hundreds. Also silk pavilions, for lords I guess and two dozen canvas ones for every silk one, likely for knights/lancers or maybe even smaller lords.

 

On 1/8/2019 at 5:40 PM, direpupy said:

If he does not want to see it then you are never going to convince him

You do realize this goes both ways, right?

 

Also if you two haven’t noticed, Ran has not answered my questions. Now he doesn’t have any obligation to do so but as I’m sure you are aware, he is well into the numbers wouldn’t he have answered with a detailed post and just be done with it, closing this thing once and for all if he could have? 

This is fiction, not fact, mistakes are bound to happen and Mr. Martin seems to have blundered with numbers, especially northmen in and after RW or else why would he want people not to delve into the numbers so much? Not just the army numbers either but the distances and time and perhaps even money as well.

Or do you think GRRM has laid it out all before, with specific numbers and then wrote based on those? Do you think men appearing out of the blue like clansmen with Stannis when there were already clansmen with Robb or disappearing into thin air like the 50000 Dornishmen are too consistent and are part of a plan? He doesn’t plan it all ahead but add and remove on the go, mistakes are bound to happen and indeed do happen. 

What I’m doing here is pointing out to those and saying “this can’t be, because of this and that” and saying “but if we bend it this way or that, then yeah, perhaps”.  I am well aware GRRM likely wanted Boltons to be well above %50,  he may even have said all those returning are Boltons because you know what? These men are just ink drops on paper and not flesh and blood, they can appear and disappear on the paper at the whim of GRRM unlike real beings in a real world. But when it happens, it fills the books with inconsistancies.

 

Now, we are still a good few pages away from getting a thread lock, I don’t want the thread to get shut down too soon with this discussion as an excuse.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I’m sorry if you thought that I meant you were banned or something. I mentioned your nick because you said I am reaching my conclusions from an ideological point, when your nick was Free Northman, not once but twice and your thoughts on the north and the northerners are well known as well. 

Roose was already camped, Freys have been there even before Roose. Freys tell him they have thrown three feast tents and he can camp his host beside theirs.

Arya and Sandor “crested a rise and castle, rivers and camps all appeared at once” they are on a higher vantage point and see it all.

 

Also no on just knowing Karstarks. I have given quotes proving exactly which men couldn’t have come with Robb; Mountain clansmen as they are nor cavalry men, any noblemen who were not in Riverrun as we are told of each and every northman there not once but twice, in couincil and in the grove.

A few washed away tents, that’s all. As said above, Arya and Sandor are on a high vantage point. And as also said above, Roose brought others besides Karstarks, Clansmen, Lockes and Widow’s watch Flints at the very least.

 

No we are told. Barracks tents for two score footmen, feast tents able to seat hundreds. Also silk pavilions, for lords I guess and two dozen canvas ones for every silk one, likely for knights/lancers or maybe even smaller lords.

 

You do realize this goes both ways, right?

 

Also if you two haven’t noticed, Ran has not answered my questions. Now he doesn’t have any obligation to do so but as I’m sure you are aware, he is well into the numbers wouldn’t he have answered with a detailed post and just be done with it, closing this thing once and for all if he could have? 

This is fiction, not fact, mistakes are bound to happen and Mr. Martin seems to have blundered with numbers, especially northmen in and after RW or else why would he want people not to delve into the numbers so much? Not just the army numbers either but the distances and time and perhaps even money as well.

Or do you think GRRM has laid it out all before, with specific numbers and then wrote based on those? Do you think men appearing out of the blue like clansmen with Stannis when there were already clansmen with Robb or disappearing into thin air like the 50000 Dornishmen are too consistent and are part of a plan? He doesn’t plan it all ahead but add and remove on the go, mistakes are bound to happen and indeed do happen. 

What I’m doing here is pointing out to those and saying “this can’t be, because of this and that” and saying “but if we bend it this way or that, then yeah, perhaps”.  I am well aware GRRM likely wanted Boltons to be well above %50,  he may even have said all those returning are Boltons because you know what? These men are just ink drops on paper and not flesh and blood, they can appear and disappear on the paper at the whim of GRRM unlike real beings in a real world. But when it happens, it fills the books with inconsistancies.

 

Now, we are still a good few pages away from getting a thread lock, I don’t want the thread to get shut down too soon with this discussion as an excuse.

 

A few comments.

1. I did not interpret it as you suggesting I was banned (that would not be a cause for insult to me, actually). I interpreted it as you suggesting that the fact that I had two similar looking usernames was somehow an indication of wanting to double emphasize the idea behind the username, or some such implication. Else why bother referring to the second name being similar to the first. Anyway, no big deal.

2. Regarding the numbers. Here's the thing. There is not a single quote that invalidates unequivocally Theon and Roose's statements about the majority of remaining Northmen being Boltons. Instead, there are vague descriptions of camps, orders of arrival at the Twins etc. which can be twisted to try and mean something, but can equally accommodate the state of affairs as portrayed by Roose and Theon. 

Given that the supporting evidence is far from a slam dunk, surely in the name of all that is holy one would just go with the most obvious answer, which is to believe what these two sources tell us.

Here is a random example. You didn't see the men that arrived with Roose, and the men that arrived with Robb and then tracked them for every moment from arrival to the point of the Red Wedding. So you don't actually know if men from the two hosts left their original groups and re-mingled with some of their friends from  the other host. Whether 0% of them did this, 10%, 50% or 80%.

So your evidence is absolutely based on pretty much one or two pieces of a 1000 piece puzzle, which you then attempt to use to justify your preconceived perspective. Whereas I just go with Roose and Theon's direct words that Dreadfort men make the up the majority of the puzzle pieces, to use a blunt analogy.

I don't need to prove it anymore than I need to prove the number of Freys marching with Roose, or the number of Freys in Robb's original army. Because it was stated by an onscreen source. Without a single contradictory quote. Just various incomplete hints of camps and horse herds and whatnot, that cannot prove the contrary.

[direpupy]

6 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

No we are told. Barracks tents for two score footmen, feast tents able to seat hundreds. Also silk pavilions, for lords I guess and two dozen canvas ones for every silk one, likely for knights/lancers or maybe even smaller lords.

I do not remember that, nor did i see it in the quote you provided, not that i do not believe you but could you quote where we are told this.

6 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

You do realize this goes both ways, right?

I do and it was meant as both ways thing.

6 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

A few washed away tents, that’s all. As said above, Arya and Sandor are on a high vantage point. And as also said above, Roose brought others besides Karstarks, Clansmen, Lockes and Widow’s watch Flints at the very least.

Those few tents still prove there where other tents so my point still stands.

6 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Also if you two haven’t noticed, Ran has not answered my questions. Now he doesn’t have any obligation to do so but as I’m sure you are aware, he is well into the numbers wouldn’t he have answered with a detailed post and just be done with it, closing this thing once and for all if he could have? 

This is fiction, not fact, mistakes are bound to happen and Mr. Martin seems to have blundered with numbers, especially northmen in and after RW or else why would he want people not to delve into the numbers so much? Not just the army numbers either but the distances and time and perhaps even money as well.

GRRM has regularly admitted that numbers are not his strong point so thats nothing new.

And as to Ran he has admitted that he does not know they exact numbers himself because GRRM never gave them to him so i am not surprised he gave no answer.

6 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

What I’m doing here is pointing out to those and saying “this can’t be, because of this and that” and saying “but if we bend it this way or that, then yeah, perhaps”.  I am well aware GRRM likely wanted Boltons to be well above %50,  he may even have said all those returning are Boltons because you know what? These men are just ink drops on paper and not flesh and blood, they can appear and disappear on the paper at the whim of GRRM unlike real beings in a real world. But when it happens, it fills the books with inconsistancies.

If you are aware of this then why are you fighting us on this you have basically just admitted we are right, and i am not a fan of bending the texts of the books just to make something fit a headcanon.

[Corvo the Crow]

On 1/13/2019 at 11:52 AM, Free Northman Reborn said:

Regarding the numbers. Here's the thing. There is not a single quote that invalidates unequivocally Theon and Roose's statements about the majority of remaining Northmen being Boltons.

I may not have been clear this last time, nor was I in the first time we made this discussion, so to clarify, , as I have before months ago, I am not saying Boltons are not above %50 nor am I saying returning Northmen don’t number ~4000 I am just saying, with the evidence we see, that these two can’t be at the same time, even one is not too likely but possiblw with the right circumatances.

 

On 1/13/2019 at 11:52 AM, Free Northman Reborn said:

Here is a random example. You didn't see the men that arrived with Roose,

No but I know Robb had almost no Karstarks left with him(wounded and some serving men were left behind) Locke and Flint who would at least have some small retinue were obviously with Roose since they were not with Robb in RR, mountain clansmen as well since they travel on horses but do not fight on horse, at least not in large numbers. So beside Karstarks Roose had a smattering of men from other houses, individually powerless but put together would number in hundreds.

 

On 1/13/2019 at 5:33 PM, direpupy said:

If you are aware of this then why are you fighting us on this you have basically just admitted we are right, and i am not a fan of bending the texts of the books just to make something fit a headcanon.

Have you been reading what I say? I am saying this was what Grrm likely intended but the evidence is against it. Arya sees the CAMPS, plural, not a camp, and there are thousands of men and hundreds of horse when in fact, for Robb’s host, horses should outnumber the troops(every men with two horse, see Karstarks) here is another army, much bigger

Quote

Half a league from the crossroads, a barricade of sharpened stakes had been erected, manned by pikemen and archers. Behind the line, the camp spread out to the far distance. Thin fingers of smoke rose from hundreds of cookfires, mailed men sat under trees and honed their blades, and familiar banners fluttered from staffs thrust into the muddy ground.

This is just the one camp.

So she either sees (from inside) Roose’s camp which has hundreds of men from Umber, Karstark and clansmen alone, not counting other houses(Flint, Locke and more) which would further reduce his Bolton numbers or worse, she sees all the camps and yet there are far fewer horses than men.

Also mind that Tyrion sees a camp sprawling across the Horizon, while Arya sees the camps from a higher point and doen’t describes them spreading as far as the horizon or going behind some hills etc.

Again, to be the majority, Roose doesn’t need more than half the men, if he has, say 1500 and the next big contingent, Karstarks just number 500 with the rest being from dozens of houses big and small, each having a few dozen men at best, then Boltons would still be the majority.

If Boltons are more than half, than Roose just can’t have 4000 men returning as his 3500 men had hundreds of men from Karstarks, Umber and Clansmen alone with untold numbers from many others.

Also the Freys with 1 ton3 ratio is not noted to be most afoot while Northmen are told to be so, meaning even if there were Bolton men with Robb, which may or may not be, they do not number enough to make the returning northmen 1:3, which would be 1000 mounted men for 4000. And by mounted men, I am being loose here, counting not just cavalry but the likes of Steelshanks’ men or clansmen; mounted infantry(mounted crossbowmen of Steelshanks)

[Corvo the Crow]

Something small; 

Rodrik gathered men from nearest holdfasts, not the nearest towns or villages. 

Ramsay says his men are garrison troops but we know many of them just can’t be from Dreadfort garrison as he has been “massing” troops. 

Both Rodrik’s men and Ramsay’s must probably have been troops garrisoned at holdfasts or may be even smaller lords’ keeps.

[Lord of Brewtown]

So, looking for thoughts/opinions:  who would you view as generally the strongest/most powerful/influential of these Northern Houses:  

Ryswell, Flint of Widow's Watch, Hornwood, Cerwyn.  

 

I view them as generally being a step below the Manderlys, Boltons, Dustins, Umbers and Karstarks. Maybe others have different opinions; but I'd be interested on if anyone thinks 1 of those 4 belongs on another tier, or if they are about equal.  

Hornwood/Cerwyn don't have as much documented history/may be younger; but, seem to be pretty prominently mentioned in infantry counts/battles - though that may just be because their Lords were younger/in their primes so more apt to be willing to fight and stationed closer to Winterfell so more easily able to marshall levies.  

Ryswells have a couple of fairly recent favorable marriage ties (Bolton, Dustin).  Flint past marriages to Stark (assuming from this branch of Flint).  

 

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

On 1/27/2019 at 7:02 AM, Lord of Brewtown said:

So, looking for thoughts/opinions:  who would you view as generally the strongest/most powerful/influential of these Northern Houses:  

Ryswell, Flint of Widow's Watch, Hornwood, Cerwyn.  

 

I view them as generally being a step below the Manderlys, Boltons, Dustins, Umbers and Karstarks. Maybe others have different opinions; but I'd be interested on if anyone thinks 1 of those 4 belongs on another tier, or if they are about equal.  

Hornwood/Cerwyn don't have as much documented history/may be younger; but, seem to be pretty prominently mentioned in infantry counts/battles - though that may just be because their Lords were younger/in their primes so more apt to be willing to fight and stationed closer to Winterfell so more easily able to marshall levies.  

Ryswells have a couple of fairly recent favorable marriage ties (Bolton, Dustin).  Flint past marriages to Stark (assuming from this branch of Flint).  

 

 

I rank them as follows:

1. Ryswell

2. Flint of Widow’s Watch

3. Hornwood/Cerwyn probably about equal.

If I had to guess some numbers for each:

Ryswell - 3000

Flint of Widow’s Watch - 2000

Hornwood/Cerwyn - 1500 each.

Have some reasoning to support that at least somewhat plausibly. But maybe more on that later, if anyone is interested.

[Lord of Brewtown]

13 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I rank them as follows:

1. Ryswell

2. Flint of Widow’s Watch

3. Hornwood/Cerwyn probably about equal.

If I had to guess some numbers for each:

Ryswell - 3000

Flint of Widow’s Watch - 2000

Hornwood/Cerwyn - 1500 each.

Have some reasoning to support that at least somewhat plausibly. But maybe more on that later, if anyone is interested.

Thanks.  I'd be interested in hearing more.  Specifically - that seems like a lot of manpower for House Ryswell.  Would you put them more on the level of the Karstarks/Umbers or even Dustins?   And when I talk about power/tiers - I'm not specifically isolating that to manpower/military strength as of ASOIAF.  I'm looking for general trends since Aegon's Conquest of slightly before.  What 'level' of power do they generally have?  Even if they don't quite have the military manpower/resources, do they generally seem to have more influence, better marriage pacts, high level positions (military commands, Kingsguard appointments, legendary deeds, etc).  

Also - you may have listed previously, but where would you put Glover and Tallhart in relation?   And who controls/has rights to the Stony Shore?  Is it the Tallharts (seems far away from a map perspective; but, they get sent to investigate Ironborn invasion).  

[Free Northman Reborn]

9 hours ago, Lord of Brewtown said:

Thanks.  I'd be interested in hearing more.  Specifically - that seems like a lot of manpower for House Ryswell.  Would you put them more on the level of the Karstarks/Umbers or even Dustins?   And when I talk about power/tiers - I'm not specifically isolating that to manpower/military strength as of ASOIAF.  I'm looking for general trends since Aegon's Conquest of slightly before.  What 'level' of power do they generally have?  Even if they don't quite have the military manpower/resources, do they generally seem to have more influence, better marriage pacts, high level positions (military commands, Kingsguard appointments, legendary deeds, etc).  

Also - you may have listed previously, but where would you put Glover and Tallhart in relation?   And who controls/has rights to the Stony Shore?  Is it the Tallharts (seems far away from a map perspective; but, they get sent to investigate Ironborn invasion).  

Well, I can make a plausible argument to support those numbers. But similarly someone could make a (in my view less plausible but still quite feasible) argument against it. My view is as follows.

1. I take the lower bound of Stark primary bannerman strength as 1000, based on Jeor Mormont’s comment saying any of Eddard’s Lords bannermen can raise more swords than the entire Watch. Some debate this, but that is my view.

2. I take the weakest Stark Bannermen to be the likes of the Mormonts on their island in the far North, just next to the Frozen Shore. 

3. I think the Hornwood and Cerwyn lands are better than that of the Mormonts being in the heart of the North in a warmer climate. They are also closer to the White Knife trading artery and therefore richer than the poor Mormonts.

4. So if the Mormonts are at 1000, I place the Cerwyns at around 1500. Very roughly speaking. I also note they raised 300 men fairly easily from their reserves after already contributing presumably heavily to Robb’s host, being so close to Winterfell and very loyal to the Starks. No mention of old men or boys in their reserve force either. In short, 1500 seems plausible for them.

5. I can’t see any obvious reason why the Hornwood lands would be any smaller, poorer or less fertile than that of the Cerwyns. In fact, the Hornwood lands seem pretty well located. The only thing holding them down is the relative ease with which Ramsay overcame them, but we don’t know how much the lack of leadership cost them there. Again, I think they have better lands than the Mormonts, so if the Mormonts have at least 1000 I reckon 1500 is a safe bet for the Hornwoods.

6. The Flints of Widow’s Watch seem to have a prime location on the warmer east coast, relatively far south by Northern standards and hinted to be the most powerful branch of the ancient House Flint. If they rule the entire widow’s Watch peninsula as I suspect, then I think they have good lands, are in trading range with the Free Cities, and in quite a secure and sought after location.  All things considered I believe they are in the 2000 range, therefore. More prestigious and more powerful than the Hornwoods or Cerwyns.

7. As for the Ryswells. Their lands are close to the size of that of the Karstarks, but about 1000 miles further south. The Rills sound fertile and are known for breeding great horses, as signified by their coat of arms. If the Karstarks can raise 3000 men in the distant North then I think 3000 should be achievable for the Ryswells too. I think they suffer from the same lack of early detail as the Dustins, with Martin only fleshing their back stories out later in the series, and retrospectively coming up with a plausible reason for their lack of prominence in the early books. In this case, because they are supposedly divided between 3 or 4 quarreling factions of the family. All things considered, I think they are one of the most powerful Northern Houses, on a par with House Karstark, and just below Houses Dustin and Bolton.

[Corvo the Crow]

@Lord of Brewtown

 

Judging from what we have on them(summary below) so far, I'd put Hornwood and Cerwyn above  at least one of those two houses; Ryswells and Flints of Widow's Watch, perhaps both.

 

When Cat arrives, with Manderly soldiers at her back, Robb says he has 18000 and must leave now that Manderlies have arrived. This is interpreted in two ways, that Robb has 18000 including the Manderlies and that it is the number before Manderlies, the one that is generally agreed upon, is the first one, which is also supported by the "twenty thousand men" remarks made several times about Robb's army; when Robb is said to have five times Walder's men, when Renly talks with Cat and when Theon thinks upon seeing the returning men that twenty thousand men went South.

Robb had "12000 men or near enough as to make no matter" at Winterfell, so before Manderlies there must have been more or less 6000 men from houses that joined on the road or went straight to MC. 

Major houses, or houses of at least some import that they get a mention even if we don't see them, from the southern portions of the North are; Flints from Flint's Finger and Widow's Watch, Ryswells, Dustins, Reeds, Manderlys, Lockes and Slates

Since Manderlies are not in the 6000 men, and Crannogmen are assumed to be not present at all, 6000 men came from at least 6 primary houses, with an average of 1000 per house. Seeing as how Slates were only mentioned four books later, there may be more we'll get to see/learn of later. 

Now, an average of 1000 does not necessarily mean everyone contributed the same, Flint's of Widow Watch for example get plenty of mention and we even see their heir, in Twins whereas the other branch gets no mention at all(I mean in current events) so it can be assumed they contributed more men or more important than the other one in some other way.

 

Now for Cerwny and Hornwood,they are everywhere;

 

Greenfork: Tyrion sees the Cerwyn and Hornwood banners, along with Karstark, Glover and Frey ones. Karstarks had near 2000 infantry, Freys would have 2500(since they had near 3000 and left 400 back) He sees, along with the banners of the two houses that have 2000 or more men, the banners of Hornwood, Cerwyn and Glover. He doesn't even see the Manderly's banners, which we know had ~1250 infantry.

 

Duskendale: Long after Roose's host of 15000 or so, excluding the Freys, was reduced to 10000, again, excluding the Freys, and after so many Karstarks have deserted that army that Roose says "a thousand Karstarks" are searching for Jaime, Roose sends out Hornwoods, Karstarks and Cerwyns to Duskendale, supported with 400 men from Twins under Tallhart's command and  this costs Robb "a third of his infantry" and leaves Roose with around 6500 men, even then this number includes Hornwood, Cerwyn and Karstarks.

 

With Rodrik: Cerwyns gather 300 men in a very short span of time, for comparison, we know in that same span of time Rodrik gathers more than 400 men just from the nearest holdfasts (600 men in total but it includes near 200 men from garrison). Hornwoods have some men with Rodrik as well, though few in numbers. 

 

After WotK: There are Hornwood men with Ramsay and some of those from Rodrik's army are now with Stannis. 

All in all, Hornwood and Cerwyn appear to be very powerful, even more so than many older houses, despite seemingly lacking history and a prestigious name.

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

11 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

@Lord of Brewtown

Judging from what we have on them(summary below) so far, I'd put Hornwood and Cerwyn above  at least one of those two houses; Ryswells and Flints of Widow's Watch, perhaps both.

WRT to the Ryswells, I am fairly certain they were retconned to be stronger. They aren't listed as a principal bannerman of the starks but then they are a primary force in the north and an important ally of Roose. We never see any actual Ryswells south of the Neck on Robb's campaign, and they really aren't mentioned till ASOS (spearmen at that). Yet we see there are four Ryswells that essentially rule the Rills and they are named and prominently mentioned in AFFC and ADWD.  They rule an area the size of the Karstark and Umber lands.

Much like lady Dustin, I'd imagine they kept most of the strength back otherwise people would not be feting lady Dustin, herself a Ryswell, as a rival for power to Roose. Roose has the majority of the strength at WF, so the two families combined have to be able to raise a similar or larger amount to fight him off.

[Corvo the Crow]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

WRT to the Ryswells, I am fairly certain they were retconned to be stronger. They aren't listed as a principal bannerman of the starks but then they are a primary force in the north and an important ally of Roose. We never see any actual Ryswells south of the Neck on Robb's campaign, and they really aren't mentioned till ASOS (spearmen at that). Yet we see there are four Ryswells that essentially rule the Rills and they are named and prominently mentioned in AFFC and ADWD.  They rule an area the size of the Karstark and Umber lands.

Much like lady Dustin, I'd imagine they kept most of the strength back otherwise people would not be feting lady Dustin, herself a Ryswell, as a rival for power to Roose. Roose has the majority of the strength at WF, so the two families combined have to be able to raise a similar or larger amount to fight him off.

Early in the series Rills wasn’t even it’s seperate region, you can see the maps and Lord Ryswell who sent his oathbreaking son was in Barrowlands, so yeah.

 

As for current Ryswells, Stonyshore folk go to masterly Tallharts and not to the Lordly Ryswells living in the seemingly closer Rills, though it could be due to geographical reasons(Rills not suitable to cross) but they aren’t able to handle Ironborn either, burning a few ships really isn’t much of a feat, even Mormonts were able to pull that.  But yeah, I think Rills, as a region, could be powerful but lack cohesion, four heads quarreling really doesn’t imply strong leadership and that could be their problem and Ryswell cousins we read of are possibly landed as they seem to have some power of their own, affixing their own seals in the letter Jon reads.

[Corvo the Crow]

I was thinking on making a post on how/from where the armies are gathered; how the levy system works; whether if the soldiers are from garrisons, smallfolk with training and equipment, or just villagers with pointy sticks, but I don’t have much time for the next few months, so if anyone is willing to quote hunt, it’d be much appreciated.

I am looking for things such as Donella saying Ramsay’s been massing men and Ramsay saying the troops he brought are not fieldhands but garrison troops, Bran saying Rodrik gathered men from the nearest holdfasts(notice, not villages), Tyrion saying his flank is lannisport boys with no proper arms and armor and such.

[Free Northman Reborn]

On 1/31/2019 at 3:43 PM, Corvo the Crow said:

Early in the series Rills wasn’t even it’s seperate region, you can see the maps and Lord Ryswell who sent his oathbreaking son was in Barrowlands, so yeah.

 

As for current Ryswells, Stonyshore folk go to masterly Tallharts and not to the Lordly Ryswells living in the seemingly closer Rills, though it could be due to geographical reasons(Rills not suitable to cross) but they aren’t able to handle Ironborn either, burning a few ships really isn’t much of a feat, even Mormonts were able to pull that.  But yeah, I think Rills, as a region, could be powerful but lack cohesion, four heads quarreling really doesn’t imply strong leadership and that could be their problem and Ryswell cousins we read of are possibly landed as they seem to have some power of their own, affixing their own seals in the letter Jon reads.

Ryswells seem very capable of dealing with Ironborn. The Ironborn left their more fertile, southerly and closer lands strictly alone and instead attacked the much poorer Stony Shore, signifying the Ryswells as a stronger threat. And when they acted it ended in victory, with Ironborn ships burnt and Ironborn warriors dead. 

I’m not aware of a single Rills holdfast falling to the Ironborn invasion, in fact. Are you?

[Corvo the Crow]

11 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I’m not aware of a single Rills holdfast falling to the Ironborn invasion, in fact. Are you?

Perhaps what you say is true and as I said Ryswell “branches” seem to have some power of their own, but whether they held on to their castles or not is irrelevant; Mormonts are likely the weakest principle bannermen, an opinion I know you share as well, and Bear Island was under Ironborn rule for a long time in the past, meaning if it was taken, it’d be easier to hold on to with North having no proper fleet at all and yet they are holding their seat while MC is taken and Tallharts and even the much more powerful Glovers lost their seats, so really doesn’t mean much.

 

If you are going to say Glovers are not so powerful, remember;

the banners Tyrion see or at least notice include Glover ones among others while he doesn’t see banners of Mormont, Slate, Flints from either Lordly branch, Locke, Manderly, Ryswell, Umber or even Dustin and even after Roose lost a third or whatever of Northern infantry, there are still enough Glover men to form an army of 4000 or so with the remaining Cerwyn and Hornwood and what few Karstark men have remained after greenfork losses and “a thousand” have left to search Jaime.

Also Remember that Stannis has in his army a good number of wood clansmen, Taking mountain clansmen as 2000 and ignoring remants of Rodrik’s host, fishers, etc, they may number up to 2000 men, Over 1000 with Stannis surely is possible.

 

[Lord Varys]

@Corvo the Crow

This strikes me as a futile enterprise. You would have to propose that the author actually intended to paint a coherent picture with such small tidbits. And that only after you have subtracted all the intentional deception and errors of the (POV) characters providing us with such information.

George is very inconsistent with the quality and identity of the men in the various armies with Renly's disappearing horse at Storm's End being the most important examples.

And speculation is not getting us all that far. Ramsay massing men at the Dreadfort is a report - how reliable was it? We don't know. The same goes for Ramsay's own claim the men he took to Winterfell were exclusively Roose's garrison - a certain number certainly would be the garrison, but not necessarily all of them. Even if they all were Dreadfort garrison - where are our sources to properly assess the quality of the Bolton garrison men?

We have none. And so forth.

[Free Northman Reborn]

2 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Perhaps what you say is true and as I said Ryswell “branches” seem to have some power of their own, but whether they held on to their castles or not is irrelevant; Mormonts are likely the weakest principle bannermen, an opinion I know you share as well, and Bear Island was under Ironborn rule for a long time in the past, meaning if it was taken, it’d be easier to hold on to with North having no proper fleet at all and yet they are holding their seat while MC is taken and Tallharts and even the much more powerful Glovers lost their seats, so really doesn’t mean much.

 

If you are going to say Glovers are not so powerful, remember;

the banners Tyrion see or at least notice include Glover ones among others while he doesn’t see banners of Mormont, Slate, Flints from either Lordly branch, Locke, Manderly, Ryswell, Umber or even Dustin and even after Roose lost a third or whatever of Northern infantry, there are still enough Glover men to form an army of 4000 or so with the remaining Cerwyn and Hornwood and what few Karstark men have remained after greenfork losses and “a thousand” have left to search Jaime.

Also Remember that Stannis has in his army a good number of wood clansmen, Taking mountain clansmen as 2000 and ignoring remants of Rodrik’s host, fishers, etc, they may number up to 2000 men, Over 1000 with Stannis surely is possible.

 

I don’t know who is more powerful between the Glovers or Tallharts. They may well be more or less similar in strength, or the Tallharts may even be stronger. They certainly have a much stronger and more expensive castle than  the Glovers’ motte and baily keep with its wooden walls.

But I place the Ryswells well above both those houses. If the 4 quarreling branches  are united under their father’s leadership that is.

[Corvo the Crow]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

@Corvo the Crow

This strikes me as a futile enterprise. You would have to propose that the author actually intended to paint a coherent picture with such small tidbits. And that only after you have subtracted all the intentional deception and errors of the (POV) characters providing us with such information.

George is very inconsistent with the quality and identity of the men in the various armies with Renly's disappearing horse at Storm's End being the most important examples.

And speculation is not getting us all that far. Ramsay massing men at the Dreadfort is a report - how reliable was it? We don't know. The same goes for Ramsay's own claim the men he took to Winterfell were exclusively Roose's garrison - a certain number certainly would be the garrison, but not necessarily all of them. Even if they all were Dreadfort garrison - where are our sources to properly assess the quality of the Bolton garrison men?

We have none. And so forth.

Perhaps, but we are given some knowledge and I’d like to bring it all together.

As for inconsistencies, yes, there are many of them, even my last post before that was on one such; thousands of men and horse being missing just before RW.

 

Ramsay’s a liar, I don’t know why people take his word for true and he may or may not have brought garrison men, but it certainly is possible an if so, it wasn’t just Dreadfort men alone, he has been gathering men, remember Rodrik’s host; we are not told Rodrik gathers men from the nearest villages, but the nearest holdfasts, implying garrisons. As for the quality, these men, Rodrik’s and Ramsay’s both may just be men that were recently taken as guards or even if they weren’t they could be old or crippled; I think we are given a clear picture on this at least; garrison duty is usually left for the boys, old and the wounded or crippled.

[Corvo the Crow]

6 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I don’t know who is more powerful between the Glovers or Tallharts. They may well be more or less similar in strength, or the Tallharts may even be stronger. They certainly have a much stronger and more expensive castle than  the Glovers’ motte and baily keep with its wooden walls.

But I place the Ryswells well above both those houses. If the 4 quarreling branches  are united under their father’s leadership that is.

Castles don’t tell much and you know it. We know Blackwoods are more powerful than Tullys and their castle really isn’t impressive compared to theirs.

Also it took Asha a month to take it with a thousand men, Theon had at most 250, before sending his uncle of with most of his ships, how much did it take for Dagmer to take Torrhen’s Square with much fewer men? Really a non existing point.

From all we know, and don’t know as well, Tallharts are possibly a very recent house by Westerosi standarts so when they built their castle, they built a good one. Since it’s around the would be border with Barrowlands, it may even be the Starks built it when Barrow Kings still existed and gave it to Tallharts much later.

But yes, 4 Branches together could be more powerful, but then again, it may not be so since we dont see that many Ryswell men. Again; House, Glover, which may have as many as “near 2000” men with Stannis and likely has around 1000 men with him and has it’s banner’s seen along with Karstarks who has near 2000 with and Freys who have more than 2000 while Ryswell banner is nowhere to be seen likely had more men in Robb’s army, and more people capable of fighting left behind at home, regardless of your feelings which house is more powerful and which is not.

[Free Northman Reborn]

12 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Castles don’t tell much and you know it. We know Blackwoods are more powerful than Tullys and their castle really isn’t impressive compared to theirs.

Also it took Asha a month to take it with a thousand men, Theon had at most 250, before sending his uncle of with most of his ships, how much did it take for Dagmer to take Torrhen’s Square with much fewer men? Really a non existing point.

From all we know, and don’t know as well, Tallharts are possibly a very recent house by Westerosi standarts so when they built their castle, they built a good one. Since it’s around the would be border with Barrowlands, it may even be the Starks built it when Barrow Kings still existed and gave it to Tallharts much later.

But yes, 4 Branches together could be more powerful, but then again, it may not be so since we dont see that many Ryswell men. Again; House, Glover, which may have as many as “near 2000” men with Stannis and likely has around 1000 men with him and has it’s banner’s seen along with Karstarks who has near 2000 with and Freys who have more than 2000 while Ryswell banner is nowhere to be seen likely had more men in Robb’s army, and more people capable of fighting left behind at home, regardless of your feelings which house is more powerful and which is not.

Just to address your other point directly, we have zero evidence how many men the Glovers had in Robb’s host. Seeing banners is meaningless for purpose of counting number of men. That entire line of argument is baseless.

All we know is that the Glovers - like the Tallharts and any other Northern lord - can raise at least 1000 men.

And that - like the Tallharts - they are a Masterly House, not lords.

And  lastly, that they appear to have a relatively unimpressive castle compared to many other Stark bannermen. But whether they can raise 1000 or 2000 men, I honestly don’t know.

If I had to guess - and that really is all we can do at this point - I would estimate around 1500, as I don’t think they are at the very bottom of the Stark bannermen strength, which is 1000. But I also don’t think they are particularly powerful.

1500-2000 as their full strength feels about right. But as I admitted above, it is based on very flimsy evidence.