How did the rumor that Jon Snow’s mother was a fisherman’s daughter start?

[LindsayLohan]

Teenage Ned Stark was slinging D all over Westeros.  Mad respect, homie.

[The Map Guy]

I think the story that Lord Borrell tells Davos that his father told him is actually two stories:

• Ned smuggling himself into the North from the Vale, before the Rebellion
• Ned smuggling baby Jon, Wylla the wetnurse, and Lyanna's body from Starfall, after the rebellion

The two stories told as one has a major conflict: Jon's conception does not fit his age 

 

Same thing when Ned Dayne gives two stories that conflict as one:

• Wylla is Jon's Mother
• Ned & Ashara fell in love

So which is true? Because both stories conflict each other. Is it Ned+Wylla? Or is it Ned+Ashara? With R+L=J, its neither. But there are some truths to the pieces of Wylla's story and pieces of Ashara's story.

 

Anyways back to Sisterton, we have some minor questions too: Where was the fisherman's daughter from? Where was she during the rebellion? At what point did Ned pick up the baby? What was her fate after Ned picked up the baby?

IMO, after Ned determined that The Sisters is a safe docking point for smuggling before the Rebellion, he uses it again after the Rebellion. But this time, the town folks see Ned Stark, a baby, a woman nursing the baby, and a mysterious body bag (Lyanna's corpse). The town folks made up a story to what they saw: the body bag was the fisherman and the living woman was his daughter, the baby is Ned's bastard that is named after Jon Arryn.

In regards to the storm, it may have happened in either the 1st visit or 2nd visit...or it may have never happened at all.

In regards to the bastard in the belly and paying her off, Wylla had to been pregnant at some point to produce milk, and perhaps Wylla was paid off for her services from Starfall to Winterfell.

The entirety of the story with the fisherman's daughter is false, but there are some truths to it. The main truth is that Ned smuggled baby Jon to the North by taking a ship from Starfall, to Sisterton, to White Harbor and then Winterfell. Maybe Ned stopped by King's Landing or near Greywater Watch, maybe he didn't, but those parts do not matter to the story. 

Travelling by sea instead of land is much faster, and you can hide baby Jon from a lot of public eyes. When baby Jon is finally seen by public eyes in Sisterton, a gossip story was created. Imagine if Ned did travel by land from Starfall to Winterfell and how many versions of gossip from each town there would be...for Ned Stark, a woman, a baby and a body bag.

Anyways, GRRM main purpose of the story to identify the route Ned took after the Tower of Joy. Even in a SSM, GRRM reminds us that there are ships in Starfall. If we never heard this story, a lot of us will still debate the how Ned ended up in Winterfell with baby Jon and a wetnurse, even before Catelyn got there with baby Robb. 

 

 

[wia]

5 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

The two stories told as one has a major conflict: Jon's conception does not fit his age

It's actually the only story with Ned as the father that definitely fits the age. We do not have a confirmed meeting between Ned and both Wylla and Ashara for Jon's conception.

5 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

Where was the fisherman's daughter from?

Well I'd assume that she's from the Fingers, since it's where they sailed from. 

8 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

IMO, after Ned determined that The Sisters is a safe docking point for smuggling before the Rebellion, he uses it again after the Rebellion.

We don't know if he determined that or not. He was going to White Harbor, but got caught in storm and just barely made it on a boat that drowned. What we know is that he docked there out of necessity. Whether it was safe or not in his opinion is hard to say. The Sistermen bent the knee to the Eyrie just to expel the northmen, so one would think that they're not the North's best friends.

12 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

In regards to the storm, it may have happened in either the 1st visit or 2nd visit...or it may have never happened at all.

There's no reason for Ned to be smuggled from the Fingers to the White Harbor on a fisherman's boat after the war.  So that'd be the first visit.

18 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

Travelling by sea instead of land is much faster, and you can hide baby Jon from a lot of public eyes.

Why does he need to hide Jon on the journey when he doesn't hide Jon when he arrives to Winterfell?

[The Map Guy]

8 minutes ago, wia said:

It's actually the only story with Ned as the father that definitely fits the age. We do not have a confirmed meeting between Ned and both Wylla and Ashara for Jon's conception.

Well I'd assume that she's from the Fingers, since it's where they sailed from. 

We don't know if he determined that or not. He was going to White Harbor, but got caught in storm and just barely made it on a boat that drowned. What we know is that he docked there out of necessity. Whether it was safe or not in his opinion is hard to say. The Sistermen bent the knee to the Eyrie just to expel the northmen, so one would think that they're not the North's best friends.

There's no reason for Ned to be smuggled from the Fingers to the White Harbor on a fisherman's boat after the war.  So that'd be the first visit.

Why does he need to hide Jon on the journey when he doesn't hide Jon when he arrives to Winterfell?

Jon should be younger than Robb. The fisherman story would imply that Jon is older. The general gossip is that Ned dishonored Catelyn, implying Ned conceived Jon after Ned & Catelyn's marriage, and not before.

 

The "fisherman's daughter" could be from the Fingers, or perhaps she was from Starfall and Ned lied to cover his tracks.

 

Ned is trying to smuggle Jon to Winterfell from Starfall with maximum speed and minimal human contact. Jon will be safe once he is in Winterfell. Anyone Ned encounters on land with a suspicious baby and Lyanna's dead body may spell trouble.

 

 

[wia]

1 hour ago, The Map Guy said:

Jon should be younger than Robb. The fisherman story would imply that Jon is older. The general gossip is that Ned dishonored Catelyn, implying Ned conceived Jon after Ned & Catelyn's marriage, and not before.

Well Robb was born 9 months after Battle of the Bells and Jon was born around Battle of the Trident and the Sack of King's Landing. So Trident-Sack would have to happen more than 9 months after the Battle of the Bells for Robb to be older than Jon. That would mean that the Taking of Gulltown, the Battles at Summerhall and the Battle of Ashford prior to the Battle of the Bells would all need to happen within 1-2 months for the war to last 'close to a year'Yet the siege of Storm's End that started after the Battle of Ashford but before the Battle of the Bells and ended after the Sack lasted 'for the better part of a year'. The RR's timeline would be:
Month 1: Taking of Gulltown, the Battles at Summerhall and the Battle of Ashford, start of the siege of Storm's End
Month 2: Battle of the Bells, Robb's conception
Month 3: Jon's conception
Month 4 / Month 5 / Month 6 / Month 7 / Month 8 / Month 9 / Month 10 - Nothing really
Month 11 - Robb's birth
Month 12 - Battle of the Trident and the Sack of King's Landing, Jon's birth
Year 2 Month 1: end of the siege of Storm's End
That would make the war last the whole year and the siege of Storm's End last more than a year. Unless I'm missing something here, it doesn't work.

1 hour ago, The Map Guy said:

The "fisherman's daughter" could be from the Fingers, or perhaps she was from Starfall and Ned lied to cover his tracks.

So someone from Starfall happened to be on the Fingers around the start of a war and smuggled Ned to the Sisters? 
Because I'm not sure how dornish Wylla (or any other dornish women) coming with Ned on a ship after the war could transform into 'a fisherman and his daughter smuggling Ned on a drowning boat at the start of the war'. I get the concept of story changing and taking different shapes, but that's a long reach.

1 hour ago, The Map Guy said:

Ned is trying to smuggle Jon to Winterfell from Starfall with maximum speed and minimal human contact. Jon will be safe once he is in Winterfell. Anyone Ned encounters on land with a suspicious baby and Lyanna's dead body may spell trouble.

Why would he be in trouble though? What was supposed to happen if he encounters people?
Everybody knows that he came back from the south with Lyanna's body and Jon and nobody seems to cause him any trouble because of that. Infact most people assume he brought Jon from Dorne.
---
Now I'm not saying that I'm sold on fisherman's daughter being Jon's mother. If we go by stories changing with rumors, I'd guess Ned was smuggled indeed, but that was it. Maybe that fisherman's daughter got pregnant later or was already pregnant before smuggling him by some other man, maybe she wasn't at all, who knows.

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, The Map Guy said:

The fisherman story would imply that Jon is older. The general gossip is that Ned dishonored Catelyn, implying Ned conceived Jon after Ned & Catelyn's marriage, and not before

I don't think that's true, the gossip seems to be that Ned conceived Jon prior to his marriage with Cat, When Brandon and Cat were still betrothed, this is what Harwin tells Arya:

Quote

"Aye, he told me.  Lady Ashara Dayne.  It's an old tale, that one.  I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now."  He took hold of her bridle firmly and turned her horse around.  "I doubt there's any truth to it.  But if there is, what of it?  When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor.  Therre's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say?  Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that?  Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged."

The only other time the story is told, it's through Cat's POV:

Quote

Ned would not speak of the mother, not so much a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband's soldiers.  They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys' Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat.  And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. 

Cat's version of the story doesn't exactly give a timeline when a conception would have occurred. 

Now at another point without specifically naming Ashara Cat seems to assume that Ned conceived Jon during the war:

Quote

Many men fathered bastards.  Catelyn had grown up with that knowledge.  It came as no surprise to her, in the first year of her marriage, to learn that Ned had fathered a child on some girl chance met on campaign.  He had a man's needs, after all, and they had spent that year apart, Ned off at war in the south while she remained safe in her father's castle at Riverrun.

Of course for Cat, it benefits her to have everyone assume that Jon is younger than Robb, because she appears very worried about Jon or Jon's descendants challenging her children's claim to Winterfell.  So Jon being both a bastard and younger than Robb is to her benefit.

ETA: it's not general gossip that Eddard dishonored Cat by conceiving Jon, it's Eddard who thinks that he dishonored Cat. 

Quote

Ned's mouth tightened in anger.  "Nor will I.  Leave it be, Robert, for the love you say you bear me.  I dishonored myself and I dishonored Catelyn, in the sight of gods and men."

"Gods have mercy, you scarcely knew Catelyn."

"I had taken her to wife.  She was carrying my child."

Now if Jon is not Ned's son, then Ned is probably not really meaning that it was Jon's conception dishonoring Cat.

[The Map Guy]

47 minutes ago, wia said:

Well Robb was born 9 months after Battle of the Bells and Jon was born around Battle of the Trident and the Sack of King's Landing. So Trident-Sack would have to happen more than 9 months after the Battle of the Bells for Robb to be older than Jon. That would mean that the Taking of Gulltown, the Battles at Summerhall and the Battle of Ashford prior to the Battle of the Bells would all need to happen within 1-2 months for the war to last 'close to a year'Yet the siege of Storm's End that started after the Battle of Ashford but before the Battle of the Bells and ended after the Sack lasted 'for the better part of a year'. The RR's timeline would be:
Month 1: Taking of Gulltown, the Battles at Summerhall and the Battle of Ashford, start of the siege of Storm's End
Month 2: Battle of the Bells, Robb's conception
Month 3: Jon's conception
Month 4 / Month 5 / Month 6 / Month 7 / Month 8 / Month 9 / Month 10 - Nothing really
Month 11 - Robb's birth
Month 12 - Battle of the Trident and the Sack of King's Landing, Jon's birth
Year 2 Month 1: end of the siege of Storm's End
That would make the war last the whole year and the siege of Storm's End last more than a year. Unless I'm missing something here, it doesn't work.

So someone from Starfall happened to be on the Fingers around the start of a war and smuggled Ned to the Sisters? 
Because I'm not sure how dornish Wylla (or any other dornish women) coming with Ned on a ship after the war could transform into 'a fisherman and his daughter smuggling Ned on a drowning boat at the start of the war'. I get the concept of story changing and taking different shapes, but that's a long reach.

Why would he be in trouble though? What was supposed to happen if he encounters people?
Everybody knows that he came back from the south with Lyanna's body and Jon and nobody seems to cause him any trouble because of that. Infact most people assume he brought Jon from Dorne.
---
Now I'm not saying that I'm sold on fisherman's daughter being Jon's mother. If we go by stories changing with rumors, I'd guess Ned was smuggled indeed, but that was it. Maybe that fisherman's daughter got pregnant later or was already pregnant before smuggling him by some other man, maybe she wasn't at all, who knows.

I was saying it is two separate stories mistakenly or gossiply combined into one.

Jon & Robb's age debate is a long debate. No one has the concrete answer. But for everyone to think Ned cheated on Catelyn, it would mean that Jon is little bit younger than Robb.

Ned traveling on sea is still safer from public and faster than land. Why take the risk for a slower option? Perhaps if he was asked to reveal Lyanna's dead body to someone he comes across on land, they will see that she was pregnant. Now everyone would ask, where is Lyanna's baby? Is it the one Ned is carrying?

[The Map Guy]

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I don't think that's true, the gossip seems to be that Ned conceived Jon prior to his marriage with Cat, When Brandon and Cat were still betrothed, this is what Harwin tells Arya:

The only other time the story is told, it's through Cat's POV:

Cat's version of the story doesn't exactly give a timeline when a conception would have occurred. 

Now at another point without specifically naming Ashara Cat seems to assume that Ned conceived Jon during the war:

Of course for Cat, it benefits her to have everyone assume that Jon is younger than Robb, because she appears very worried about Jon or Jon's descendants challenging her children's claim to Winterfell.  So Jon being both a bastard and younger than Robb is to her benefit.

IMO, what GRRM wrote there was a misdirection...that Ned and Ashara were in love. Re-read that passage with Harwin & Arya assuming Brandon and Ashara were actually the ones in love, not Ned. The story changes significantly...and its a good story about how Brandon is secretly dishonorable

[wia]

12 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

I was saying it is two separate stories mistakenly or gossiply combined into one.

Jon & Robb's age debate is a long debate. No one has the concrete answer. But for everyone to think Ned cheated on Catelyn, it would mean that Jon is little bit younger than Robb.

Ned traveling on sea is still safer from public and faster than land. Why take the risk for a slower option? Perhaps if he was asked to reveal Lyanna's dead body to someone he comes across on land, they will see that she was pregnant. Now everyone would ask, where is Lyanna's baby? Is it the one Ned is carrying?

As Frey family reunion pointed out above, not everyone thinks that Ned cheated on Cathelyn. Jon being younger than Robb is not consistent with confirmed events that are not a matter of lies and rumours and character's guesses.

I never said he didn't travel by sea back to Winterfell. He could've travelled either way.

Now who would demand to see the dead body of the sister of the Lord of Winterfell and examine it to be able to tell whether she was pregnant or not?! - That's a riot.

Robert seems to be sure Rhaegar raped Lyanna half a hundred times which makes it likely for her to get pregnant and everyone knows Ned came back with Lyanna's body and a baby yet nobody is asking whether it's her baby. Not a single person. You'd think somebody would put 2 and 2 together, but nope.

[SFDanny]

There are a couple of things of note about the "Fisherman's Daughter" tale Davos hears, but let me say straight up that I think this story is a cover story invented to explain Wylla the wet-nurse's origins. Many of the small folk of Westeros take names that honor the lords and ladies of their regions, and Wylla is a name that is certainly used in the area of the Bite/White Harbor/The Sisters (e.g. Wylla Manderly.) While not exclusively used there, it could well be a hint that this is where Wylla the wet-nurse comes from.

But what interests me most here is that Stannis seems to have heard this rumor.

Quote

Stannis rubbed the back of his neck. "You haggle like a crone with a codfish, Lord Snow. Did Ned Stark father you on some fishwife? (ADwD 229) bold emphasis added

This is just too spot on of a remark to be a coincidence. Stannis knows something. It is possible that Stannis has been to Sisteron to hear this tale before Davos.

Quote

"As for your King Stannis, when he was Robert's master of ships he sent a fleet into my port without my leave and made me hang a dozen fine friends. Men like you. He went so far as to threaten to hang me if it should happen that some ship went aground because the Night Lamp had gone black. I had to eat his arrogance." (ADwD 131) bold emphasis added.

 Whether or not Stannis delivers that threat personally, it is clear that Stannis has at least dealt with Lord Godric before through his own agents. From his own men, from Lord Godric himself, or from a Varys report to the small council, I think this then is the origin of Stannis's remark to Jon, and it shows he likely knows the tale of the Fisherman's Daughter - whether he believes it or not.

Like Cersei's jibe about a Dornish peasant raped by Ned being a possible mother of Jon Snow, along with mentioning Ashara Dayne, we have hints that those in power after the rebellion have had reports of Jon's origins. I think it means someone - Varys at least - has investigated Ned's tale of Wylla being Jon's mother and reported the results back to the small council or kept the information to themselves for their own purposes.

That in and of itself isn't unusual, but if Ned is trying to hide Jon's real story he has to provide a cover story for how and when he and Wylla met. We know Wylla is more than willing to claim Jon as her son, as little Lord Ned's remarks to Arya confirm. She is, however, safely ensconced in the Dayne household and safe from pointed interrogation/torture. The next best thing for one looking into Wylla's claim is to backtrack her own history and see how Ned and she could have come together. One thing we know is that, while it is always possible Ned and Wylla could have had an affair sometime during the war during the time Jon was conceived, it is not possible that she hung around Ned and his armies as she grew pregnant with Ned's child. The rumors brought home by the soldiers of the North relate to Lady Ashara Dayne, not some wet-nurse name Wylla. It works much better if Ned and Wylla meet outside the watchful eyes of Ned's army. The ideal story then is to have met when Ned travelled North, alone, to muster his Northmen to rebellion. Truth or not, this works.

But what about the timeline? If one accepts all the details of Godric's tale, then it doesn't work, but details of such stories are often wrong, and the critical part is likely true. Ned did travel north by himself to get to his bannermen. He could well have travelled by small ship across the Bite to do so. If the Fisherman's daughter who took him to the Sisters wasn't really pregnant when Ned left, it is always possible for her to have followed her lover south as he brings his northmen to war. Ned is not going to provide any details that disprove this story.

To the contrary, Ned has an interest in only providing clues that support Wylla's claim, especially if Robert decides to have others look into his tale that she is Jon's mother. If this really is, as I strongly suspect, a false tale, it only works if Wylla is really from the areas of the Sisters and Lord Godric is willing to tell the story to anyone who comes looking. Why would he? Likely a combination of reasons. Money from Ned as he travels back North after the rebellion might suffice, but it I think we also get a clue from Godric when he tells us of his his father's political sympathies. Sworn to the Arryns but not willing to openly flout the Targaryens he sends Ned on his way as a hedge against the uncertainties of war. Contemptuous of the Freys, particularly the one who uses the name of Rhaegar, Lord Godric is independent but with a respect for Targaryen rule. Would he tell a false tale that hid the particulars of Ned's flight north so long ago? I think he might.

[SFDanny]

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I don't think that's true, the gossip seems to be that Ned conceived Jon prior to his marriage with Cat, When Brandon and Cat were still betrothed, this is what Harwin tells Arya:

The only other time the story is told, it's through Cat's POV:

Cat's version of the story doesn't exactly give a timeline when a conception would have occurred. 

Now at another point without specifically naming Ashara Cat seems to assume that Ned conceived Jon during the war:

Of course for Cat, it benefits her to have everyone assume that Jon is younger than Robb, because she appears very worried about Jon or Jon's descendants challenging her children's claim to Winterfell.  So Jon being both a bastard and younger than Robb is to her benefit.

ETA: it's not general gossip that Eddard dishonored Cat by conceiving Jon, it's Eddard who thinks that he dishonored Cat. 

Now if Jon is not Ned's son, then Ned is probably not really meaning that it was Jon's conception dishonoring Cat.

Both Ned and Catelyn agree that Jon is younger than Robb because he was conceived after Ned left Catelyn pregnant with Robb. What the general gossip is really doesn't matter concerning the timeline. If Ned is lying about this, and I think he is, then there might be a possibility that Jon is really older, but then one has to ask why Ned would lie to his wife about his cheating on her after their marriage.

What we can be sure of is that Jon's nameday, true or false, is celebrated after Robb's, and that supports the story Catelyn believes and what Ned tells Robert. Either way there is a tremendous difference in Jon being born in reality perhaps weeks to a few months before Robb and Ned changing the date of his nameday to hide who he is and Jon being born a year before Robb (the Fisherman's Daughter tale) or about a year and a half before Robb (Jon conceived at Harrenhal.) The first is possible, but the other two are totally unbelievable. One has to accept the author knows nothing about infants and has his characters equally oblivious to accept such nonsense.

[cpg2016]

25 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

What we can be sure of is that Jon's nameday, true or false, is celebrated after Robb's, and that supports the story Catelyn believes and what Ned tells Robert. Either way there is a tremendous difference in Jon being born in reality perhaps weeks to a few months before Robb and Ned changing the date of his nameday to hide who he is and Jon being born a year before Robb (the Fisherman's Daughter tale) or about a year and a half before Robb (Jon conceived at Harrenhal.) The first is possible, but the other two are totally unbelievable. One has to accept the author knows nothing about infants and has his characters equally oblivious to accept such nonsense.

It's almost certainly false.  Jon is, almost without question, older than Robb.

We know Robb is conceived just before the Battle of the Bells; like... weeks before, at most.  Given what we know of the timeline, this almost guarantees he's younger than Robb.  It's nearly inconceivable that more than a few months elapse between the Battle of the Bells and the Tower of Joy.  We know Ned Stark "hurries" south to Kings Landing, and then almost immediately thereafter leaves again for Dorne, since he quarrels with Robert and leaves in a huff.  Since Jon has to be conceived at least approximately 9 months before the ToJ, this should be pretty final.  Also consider that Rhaegar has to impregnate Lyanna prior to leaving, which means he has time to get to Kings Landing, finish taking command of the army, and march to the Trident.  Just eyeballing a map and assuming relatively equal speed of movement, it's a further march from Kings Landing to the Ruby Ford than it is from Stoney Sept.  Adding in all of Rhaegar's other timeline issues, it basically guarantees Jon as the technical elder "sibling"

And it's not crazy that no one notices.  There aren't any birth certificates, and a couple of babies/kids no more than a few months apart in age are probably indistinguishable and any differences can be chalked up to different people growing and maturing at different rates.

But Ned has a bunch of reasons to encourage both the belief in the fisherman's daughter's tale, and in Jon being younger.  First off, if Jon is acknowledged to be older than Robb, it creates a huge potential shitstorm in terms of inheritance of Winterfell and would really alienate Catelyn, who at this point isn't quite as secure in her position in Winterfell as she is by A Game of Thrones.  And by allowing the rumors of Jon being the fisherman's daughter's child to spread, or Wylla's, he advances a plausible theory of paternity and deflects more pointed questions about Jon.

[corbon]

4 hours ago, wia said:

Well Robb was born 9 months after Battle of the Bells and Jon was born around Battle of the Trident and the Sack of King's Landing. So Trident-Sack would have to happen more than 9 months after the Battle of the Bells for Robb to be older than Jon. That would mean that the Taking of Gulltown, the Battles at Summerhall and the Battle of Ashford prior to the Battle of the Bells would all need to happen within 1-2 months for the war to last 'close to a year'Yet the siege of Storm's End that started after the Battle of Ashford but before the Battle of the Bells and ended after the Sack lasted 'for the better part of a year'. The RR's timeline would be:
Month 1: Taking of Gulltown, the Battles at Summerhall and the Battle of Ashford, start of the siege of Storm's End
Month 2: Battle of the Bells, Robb's conception
Month 3: Jon's conception
Month 4 / Month 5 / Month 6 / Month 7 / Month 8 / Month 9 / Month 10 - Nothing really
Month 11 - Robb's birth
Month 12 - Battle of the Trident and the Sack of King's Landing, Jon's birth
Year 2 Month 1: end of the siege of Storm's End
That would make the war last the whole year and the siege of Storm's End last more than a year. Unless I'm missing something here, it doesn't work.

What doesn't work about that? More or less at least, I'd move Battle of Bells and Robb's conception to Month 3-4, and thus Robb's birth to months 12-13 matching Jon's Birth.

Gulltown, Summerhall and Ashton are all in a bit of a rush right at the start. Gulltown is literally the start, and from there Robert races home to call his banners - a relatively short trip by sea.
Summerhall is in the first few weeks of Robert gathering his banners - 3 of the Lords he is calling decide for the Targaryens instead, he beats them and wins them over.
Ashton is also relatively quickly, maybe month 2. Robert races south(west) with the forces he has and meets the Reach forces, or at least their vanguard, near the border.
Having lost that he retreats north to link up with his allies, but doesn't quite manage it before Connington catches him at Stormy Sept. Meanwhile Ned and Jon have had the best part of 3 months to gather forces and march to join Hoster Tulley. The marriages and Rob's conception happen around the same time as the Battle of the Bells, around 3-4 months since Gulltown.

At that point there is a significant halt (probably some minor skirmishes and small sieges etc as the allied lords 'clean up' their own areas of their bannermen who supported the Targs). The Targaryens have lost their field army and need to rebuild it. The Allies probably only have the portions of their forces they could gather quickly - the first draft so to speak, and not enough forces, nor reliable logistics (see those Targ holdouts in their own territories again) to march on King's Landing. They need their full forces and secure rears to do that, There is probably also diplomacy going on regarding the Lannisters and maybe the Greyjoys and Dornish.
 

After 11-12 months Rhaegar and his cohorts have their rebuilt army together and march on the allies. The Trident and then the Sack happen, then Ned relieves the Siege of Storms End, all around the 11/12/13 mark. Storms End doesn't really need to go a full 12 months to be referenced as 'a year' in casual speaking, 11 months or so (say 2-13) would be enough for that.

Jon and Robb being within a month or so of each other's age is exactly right for all textual evidence we have, both timeline and other.

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I don't think that's true, the gossip seems to be that Ned conceived Jon prior to his marriage with Cat, When Brandon and Cat were still betrothed, this is what Harwin tells Arya:

You appear to be confusing two things. Harwin is not talking about Jon's conception. He's talking about a possible Ned affair with Ashara starting at Harrenhal, perhaps. Not only is Harrenhal Tourney is waaaaay out of the possible timeline for Jon's conception - by a factor of a year or more, but Harwin is discussing Ned Dayne's story with Arya - that Ned Stark loved Ashara (but that Wylla was Jon's Baby-momma), not that Ashara was Jon's Mum.

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

ETA: it's not general gossip that Eddard dishonored Cat by conceiving Jon, it's Eddard who thinks that he dishonored Cat. 

Now if Jon is not Ned's son, then Ned is probably not really meaning that it was Jon's conception dishonoring Cat.

He is, but indirectly. Ned knows he didn't actually conceive Jon, or dishonour his and Cat's marriage bed. But by claiming Jon as his bastard when Jon is assumed to be, and treated as, younger than Rob, he is dishonoring her by telling the world he did this thing, even though he didn't.

21 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

It's almost certainly false.  Jon is, almost without question, older than Robb.

We know Robb is conceived just before the Battle of the Bells; like... weeks before, at most.  Given what we know of the timeline, this almost guarantees he's younger than Robb.  It's nearly inconceivable that more than a few months elapse between the Battle of the Bells and the Tower of Joy.  We know Ned Stark "hurries" south to Kings Landing, and then almost immediately thereafter leaves again for Dorne, since he quarrels with Robert and leaves in a huff.  Since Jon has to be conceived at least approximately 9 months before the ToJ, this should be pretty final.  Also consider that Rhaegar has to impregnate Lyanna prior to leaving, which means he has time to get to Kings Landing, finish taking command of the army, and march to the Trident.  Just eyeballing a map and assuming relatively equal speed of movement, it's a further march from Kings Landing to the Ruby Ford than it is from Stoney Sept.  Adding in all of Rhaegar's other timeline issues, it basically guarantees Jon as the technical elder "sibling"

Not so. Your timeline is flawed. It is in fact quite clear, and entirely reasonable, that there is quite a long time between the Battle of the Bells and the Trident, (Ned hurried south after the Trident, not the Bells) let alone the Sack, the raising of the Siege and the ToJ. 8-9 months between Bells and Siege, more to ToJ.

Jon may be older than Rob, but by a matter of weeks at best.
Everyone accepts that Rob is the older - his name day comes first. Cat is certain of it (of course, Jon's name day is probably not the correct one, so she's possibly wrong, just not by much). 
It is not possible for Jon to be more than a few months older than Rob, not likely more than a month or so at best. Cat could not hold the belief that he was younger than Robb unless they were close enough age to be comparable when they were first together at less than a year old - and anyone who has had kids knows that there are huge milestones coming thick and fast during that first year, and they don't vary anywhere near as much as later milestones do. With her interest in Jon's origins she would be all over any signs he is older than Robb in that first year. 

21 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

And it's not crazy that no one notices.  There aren't any birth certificates, and a couple of babies/kids no more than a few months apart in age are probably indistinguishable and any differences can be chalked up to different people growing and maturing at different rates.

No, its easy to tell babies more than a month or so apart during the first 6-12 months. Major milestones during the first year or so are a lot more consistent than later milestones.

 

 

To speak to the original post, I think its clear that the story is flawed, but has elements of truth - just not the bastard part. Its a typical "answer a mystery in a local way" connection.

[SFDanny]

36 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

It's almost certainly false.  Jon is, almost without question, older than Robb.

Oh, really? Ok, I'm willing to be educated. Tell me how you reach this conclusion?

38 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

We know Robb is conceived just before the Battle of the Bells; like... weeks before, at most. 

No, Robb is conceived AFTER the Battle of the Bells. How do we know this for sure?

Quote

"... Lysa's match with Lord Arryn had been hastily arranged, and Jon was an old man even then, older than their father. An old man without an heir. HIs first two wives had left him childless, his brother's son had been murdered with Brandon Stark in King's Landing, his gallant cousin had died in the Battle of the Bells. He needed a young wife if House Arryn was to continue ... a young wife known to be fertile. (ASoS 32) bold emphasis added.

These are Cat's own private thoughts. She has no reason to lie about any of this. Ser Denys Arryn died at Stony Sept during the Battle of the Bells.

Quote

"Connington wounded your grandfather Tully sore, thought, and killed Ser Denys Arryn, the darling of the Vale. But when he saw the day was lost, he flew off as fast as the griffins on his shield. The Battle of the Bells , the called it later. (ASoS 327) bold emphasis added

 So, first we have the Battle of the Bells where Jon Arryn's heir dies by the hand of Lord Jon Connington, then we have the dual wedding with Cat marrying Ned and Lysa marrying Jon Arryn, then we have a short honeymoon in which we have Robb conceived, and then we have Ned going off to war again, leaving Catelyn pregnant with Robb. Only then is it that Ned is supposed to have cheated on his new bride and soon to be mother of his first born child. This is the timing that is confirmed in the days Robb and Jon celebrate their namedays. It is confirmed by both Catelyn's private thoughts and in Ned's declaration of his shaming of Catelyn by cheating on his pregnant wife.

@cpg2016 this stuff is basic timeline 101. I see where @corbon is also trying to help you, so instead of going over and over already firmly established ground, let me leave it here for now. Perhaps we need to post a sticky thread on some of this as a resource to newer posters, but some of this is dealt with in the Citadel. I would recommend it.

[wia]

1 hour ago, corbon said:

What doesn't work about that? More or less at least, I'd move Battle of Bells and Robb's conception to Month 3-4, and thus Robb's birth to months 12-13 matching Jon's Birth.

How do you get months 12 and 13 in a war that lasted less than a year? - You get a maximum of 11 months, that's what doesn't work. The latest Jon could've been born, would be month 11. That would make his conception in month 2. Battle of the bells would have to be prior to that for Robb to be older.

 

2 hours ago, SFDanny said:

What we can be sure of is that Jon's nameday, true or false, is celebrated after Robb's, and that supports the story Catelyn believes and what Ned tells Robert.

Actually no, we don't know that. I went and looked it up. We only know that Bran's nameday is earlier than Robb's: https://i.imgur.com/A1c1h5b.png

 

36 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Only then is it that Ned is supposed to have cheated on his new bride and soon to be mother of his first born child. This is the timing that is confirmed in the days Robb and Jon celebrate their namedays. It is confirmed by both Catelyn's private thoughts and in Ned's declaration of his shaming of Catelyn by cheating on his pregnant wife.

But your theory is RLJ. In that theory Ned didn't cheat on Cathelyn and in that declaration Ned lied. So how are these arguments valid then?

[Frey family reunion]

19 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Both Ned and Catelyn agree that Jon is younger than Robb because he was conceived after Ned left Catelyn pregnant with Robb. What the general gossip is really doesn't matter concerning the timeline. If Ned is lying about this, and I think he is, then there might be a possibility that Jon is really older, but then one has to ask why Ned would lie to his wife about his cheating on her after their marriage.

I'm unsure that Ned ever told Cat anything about Jon's conception, or whether he conceived Jon before or after their marriage.

Quote

“That cut deep. Ned would not speak of the mother, not so much as a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband’s soldiers.”

Quote

“She found herself thinking of Jon’s mother, that shadowy secret love her husband would never speak of.”

Based on this, I don't think that we can assume that Ned even told Cat when Jon was conceived.

Now Ned does seem to say to Robert that he conceived Jon with Wylla after his marriage to Cat.  But the story that Ned tells Robert about Wylla is probably not a story that Cat has ever heard.  

Outside of Ashara, Cat is unaware of the identity of any other possible mothers of Jon.

Quote

They were uncomfortable thoughts, and futile. If Jon had been born of Ashara Dayne of Starfall, as some whispered, the lady was long dead; if not, Catelyn had no clue who or where his mother might be.

So it seems very possible that Ned never told Cat that he dishonored her after he married her and she became pregnant with Rob.  I think that Cat assumes that Jon was conceived sometime during the war:

Quote

“Many men fathered bastards. Catelyn had grown up with that knowledge. It came as no surprise to her, in the first year of her marriage, to learn that Ned had fathered a child on some girl chance met on campaign. He had a man’s needs, after all, and they had spent that year apart, Ned off at war in the south while she remained safe in her father’s castle at Riverrun”

Now this quotes seems to imply that Cat thinks Ned fathered Jon after their marriage.  But if you read it really closely, I'm not sure the passage even establishes that.  Cat doesn't say that Ned conceived Jon after their marriage.  She says that she first learned of Eddard fathering Jon in the first year of her marriage.   

Now she does seem to assume that it had happened when Ned was fighting the war in the south, while she was in Riverrun, which probably means that she is assuming it took place after their marriage as opposed to before.  But we really aren't aware of the basis for this assumption.  It could just as easily have come from the same rumors swirling in Winterfell, that Ashara was Jon's mother.  In other words, Jon was a child brought back to Winterfell from the south, as opposed to Jon being a child being born to a woman up North, conceived when Eddard returned to Winterfell to gather the troops. 

Of course it is to Cat's benefit to believe (and to have everyone else believe) that Jon is younger than Robb because she seems worried about Jon having a claim to Winterfell against her family, including Robb.

Quote

“Precedent,” she said bitterly. “Yes, Aegon the Fourth legitimized all his bastards on his deathbed. And how much pain, grief, war, and murder grew from that? I know you trust Jon. But can you trust his sons? Or their sons? The Blackfyre pretenders troubled the Targaryens for five generations, until Barristan the Bold slew the last of them on the Stepstones. If you make Jon legitimate, there is no way to turn him bastard again. Should he wed and breed, any sons you may have by Jeyne will never be safe.”

 

[Frey family reunion]

18 hours ago, corbon said:

You appear to be confusing two things. Harwin is not talking about Jon's conception. He's talking about a possible Ned affair with Ashara starting at Harrenhal, perhaps. Not only is Harrenhal Tourney is waaaaay out of the possible timeline for Jon's conception - by a factor of a year or more, but Harwin is discussing Ned Dayne's story with Arya - that Ned Stark loved Ashara (but that Wylla was Jon's Baby-momma), not that Ashara was Jon's Mum.

Except that it doesn't appear that the Eddard fathering a child by Wylla was a rumor that was being spoken around Winterfell.  At the very least, it somehow didn't make it to Cat's ears, yet the story of Ned having conceived a child with Ashara did.  So it's fairly easy here to put two and two together.  Catelyn hears a rumor around Winterfell that Ashara is Jon's mother.  Around the same time period Harwyn hears a rumor that Eddard's affair with Ashara happened during the Harrenhal tourney.  So it's fairly easy to conclude that the rumor around Winterfell was that Eddard conceived Jon with Ashara and the conception happened before Ned was betrothed to Cat.

 

18 hours ago, corbon said:

He is, but indirectly. Ned knows he didn't actually conceive Jon, or dishonour his and Cat's marriage bed. But by claiming Jon as his bastard when Jon is assumed to be, and treated as, younger than Rob, he is dishonoring her by telling the world he did this thing, even though he didn't.

That's an interesting take on that exchange, I never thought of that as the double meaning, but it does work.  But my original point is that we don't know that Ned told Cat that he cheated on her after the marriage.  We just know that he told Robert that.  And we also know that the story that he told Robert is not a story that Cat is aware of.  It does not appear that she ever heard the name Wylla before.

ETA:  my one issue with your interpretation of Ned's hidden meaning (even though I do quite like it) is that it seems to ignore the temporal element of Ned's story.  Ned seems to indicate that the dishonor occured while (presumably Catelyn) was pregnant with his child.

Quote

“Ned’s mouth tightened in anger. “Nor will I. Leave it be, Robert, for the love you say you bear me. I dishonored myself and I dishonored Catelyn, in the sight of gods and men.”
“Gods have mercy, you scarcely knew Catelyn.”
“I had taken her to wife. She was carrying my child.”

But Ned's acknowledgment of Jon as his son, for all to know probably occurs after Robb's birth.  So if this was Ned's hidden meaning, he's still not really being truthful or accurate.  

ETA again:  In retrospect, I really can't assume that can I?  In fact in a way, your interpretation may be additional evidence that Jon is older than Robb.  Jon was born and acknowledged as Eddard's child while Catelyn was still pregnant with Robb. 

ETA again + 1:  Crap that pretty much answers it.  The dishonor that Ned speaks of to Robert is not an affair, it's the false acknowledgment of Jon (in the sight of gods and men) which occured while Catelyn was still carrying Robb.

[SFDanny]

20 hours ago, wia said:

Actually no, we don't know that. I went and looked it up. We only know that Bran's nameday is earlier than Robb's: https://i.imgur.com/A1c1h5b.png

Actually yes, because that's not the only way to figure these things out. But let's not derail this thread. I started a new one here.

@Frey family reunion can we take this discussion to the new thread I started? I'm happy to respond over there.

[SFDanny]

11 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

But Ned's acknowledgment of Jon as his son, for all to know probably occurs after Robb's birth.  So if this was Ned's hidden meaning, he's still not really being truthful or accurate.  

ETA again:  In retrospect, I really can't assume that can I?  In fact in a way, your interpretation may be additional evidence that Jon is older than Robb.  Jon was born and acknowledged as Eddard's child while Catelyn was still pregnant with Robb. 

ETA again + 1:  Crap that pretty much answers it.  The dishonor that Ned speaks of to Robert is not an affair, it's the false acknowledgment of Jon (in the sight of gods and men) which occured while Catelyn was still carrying Robb.

Let me help you out here because you seem to be tying yourself in knots. The main argument that suggests Jon may be born before Robb rests on Martin's oft quoted remarks about the age difference between Jon and Dany. Dany being born nine moons after the flight to Dragonstone just before the sack, he says that the difference between the two is "eight or nine months or thereabouts." Which suggest that Jon is born about the time Dany is conceived or about a month to a month and a half later. It appears that Robb is born in October or mid-September at the earliest if you want of play with the timing and that would allow for Jon to be older. It also provides a damn good reason for Ned to lie about it if Jon's mother is Lyanna and his father is Rhaegar. If Jon's mother is Wylla and Ned is really Jon's father it doesn't matter a damn if he was born before or after Robb, and Ned has no reason to lie to Catelyn if he was conceived before the marriage. He fathered a bastard before they married? How is that a dishonoring of his marriage vows or a threat to Catelyn's children? It is not. It is a non-issue that a lie makes into a great issue. And lie he does if Jon is born before Robb. 

The idea that Jon is acknowledged before Robb is born is just nonsense.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

On ‎10‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 10:51 AM, Angel Eyes said:

So two of the rumors regarding Jon Snow’s mother came out of Dorne, with Ashara Dayne and Wylla, a servant at Starfall. But this third is from Lord Borrell. How did this particular rumor arise? And when did Ned have the time to go and pick up Jon from wherever the fisherman’s daughter called home? It sounds like after Ned left Starfall, he took only one stop at King’s Landing where he and Robert reconciled. After returning to Winterfell, he didn’t go south of the Neck except for Greyjoy’s Rebellion.

By Ned himself , travelling with the lovely Ashara  Dayne .