Is Jon to blame? #NotMyKing

[Bullrout]

18 hours ago, bemused said:

Should Jon be blamed by whom? The OP asks by us or the watch...  If the a combination of the efforts of Stannis, Jon, the GNC, etc. manage to wrest Winterfell away from the Boltons and expose their false claim, the North will not blame any them. Nor will this reader.  The North already blames the Boltons for what they've done so far. If Jon can get the castles along the wall manned, and food coming in by ship neither the watch nor the rest of the north will blame him (nor will Stannis if he survives). I rather think that no-one in the north is going to be too worried about retaliation by KL through the winter.. they'll  have other concerns to keep them occupied.

I'm pretty amazed at the level of blame some readers are already not just willing, but eager to hand out. We don't yet know the outcome of a number of cliffhangers we were left with.

Jon? Anyone who thinks it's for sure that Bowen's knife penetrated enough to do serious damage, is ignoring clues the author wrote in to suggest otherwise. I'm betting that we'll see the attack from someone else's POV in TWOW. That will clarify a lot. ...

Stannis?Anyone who's read the Theon TWoW chapter and doesn't think there's a good chance Stannis' plans will work out (or not quite work out the way he plans, but still for the best) is betting too soon, I'd say.

Mance? We should realise that the author has provided clues that would allow for Mance and the spearwives to pretty well all avoid immediate capture (and the possibility of suicide or a mercy killing exists for any of them, as well)...We should realise that there could be an uprising against Roose within WF as soon as Ramsay lights out after Jeyne and Theon. And he will. That's the one thing we probably can be sure of.... The Boltons have to have Jeyne, or "Roose's ruse" (pardon me) was for nothing... And Ramsay will be slavering to be on the hunt. He won't be hanging around waiting for a reply to a letter.

I could go on but, I'm not saying all of these situations will work out in the positive but some will and some may go in some completely different direction than any of us expect.

Way too soon to be heaping blame on Jon. Even among the watch, there are signs the dissidents are in the minority.

The Watch already blames Jon.  They were smart enough to take him out before he can make an even bigger mess of things.  Bowen Marsh did it for the watch and he clearly blames Jon for all the crap that went down.  Jon sent his wildlings to get Arya (who he thought was Arya).  He had no right to do that.  He got the watch involved in the politics of the north.  I blame him because that was a move that divided the defenders of the wall.  Jon was no good to the watch anymore.  He was going to take the wildlings away from the wall to attack the Boltons.  

[AlaskanSandman]

23 hours ago, bemused said:

Jon doesn't think Ned and Benjen would have been thinking of settling widlings on the gift. However, I don't think they would have been thinking of settling southron lords or knights as Stannis planned or southron younger sons etc. (as I think someone suggested upthread). This move would hardly have been more welcome to the northerners, and would be a tough transition for people used to a warmer climate. So I'm not so sure that Jon is right about the wildlings. Before Ned agrees to become Robert's hand, after hearing of Mance's rise north of the wall, he thinks that the time may come when he'd have to go north of the wall and "deal with this Mance Rayder". ... That can be read two ways.

Maybe N and BJ might have planned to canvasse some wildlings and some southroners to see if they could make a reasonable fit..?? 

I, too suspect Qorgyle of being Mance's father, but I have doubts that he could have been the black brother at Harrenhall. I'd think they'd send someone who had some developed southron connections already ... maybe familial, or he may have been someone like Yoren who made regular recruiting trips.

Sure, LC Qorgyle may have known Oberyn. At any rate, there were Qorgyles in Oberyn's entourage at KL. What I found interesting is that when Nymeria came to Dorne , the Qorgyles were allied with House Yronwood who styled themselves High Kings of Dorne (The head of the house still called "the Bloodroyal") I strongly suspect that there have been marriages between the two houses over the years (sons and daughters) so Qorgyle blood now carries Yronwood blood on the female side. (and in all that time, there may have been intermarriages with Martells as well)

So when Mance says "My birth is as low as a man's can get," in ASOS, Jon X .. he's very probably wrong. ... and when Jon tells Sam in AFFC, Sam I ... 

"Mance's blood is no more royal than mine own." ... he's probably right in what he says ... but very probably wrong in what he thinks , in that he doesn't know of his own royal blood, (or Mance's.)

I think those two statements combine to make the kind of red herring GRRM delights in. and "The Dornishman's Wife", mentioned so often .. is a hint to the reader that once again, a character's female bloodline may hold a few surprises.

I think you're a little off with Tormund and Alysanne. IMO, Maege is his bear woman and Alysanne is his daughter. Maege and Tormund are more or less the same generation.Tormund says his bear woman gave him such strong sons , We know one son, Torwynd, was not strong, died, and became a wight (not Maege's), Dormund (killed by Richard Horpe), Toregg and Dryn (all three possibly Maege's) I think Alysanne is simply following her mother's lead. (Won't marry to prevent Bear Island passing from Mormont hands?)...

Tormund implies he's never been south of the wall. When Jon lets him through he says ... "Time I had a look at what's on t'other side of all that ice." But Bear Islanders are sailors and fishermen, so I think Maege traveled north around the wall. It's my suspicion that Tormund raised any sons and Maege raised any daughters. It's curious that in the tale Tormund tells Jon, the result of his last meeting with the bear woman (who he wishes he could find again) was as follows ... "... and there on me floor was a she-bear's pelt. And soon enough the free folk were telling tales o' this bald bear seen in the woods, with the queerest pair o' cubs behind her" ...ASOS, Jon II ... and Tormund's Dryn and Lyanna Mormont appear to be about the same age.

"Maege is a hoary old snark, stubborn, short-tempered, and willful. Truth be told, I can hardly stand to be around the wretched woman, but that does not mean my love for her is any less than the love you bear your half sisters". - Jeor Mormont to Jon  

" ... a fine strong woman with the biggest pair of teats you ever saw. She had a temper on her, that one, but oh, she could be warm too," ... 

... "The woman had a terrible temper, and she put up quite the fight when I laid hands on her. ... ... Would that I could find her again.." -Tormund to Jon

Should Jon be blamed by whom? The OP asks by us or the watch...  If the a combination of the efforts of Stannis, Jon, the GNC, etc. manage to wrest Winterfell away from the Boltons and expose their false claim, the North will not blame any them. Nor will this reader.  The North already blames the Boltons for what they've done so far. If Jon can get the castles along the wall manned, and food coming in by ship neither the watch nor the rest of the north will blame him (nor will Stannis if he survives). I rather think that no-one in the north is going to be too worried about retaliation by KL through the winter.. they'll  have other concerns to keep them occupied.

I'm pretty amazed at the level of blame some readers are already not just willing, but eager to hand out. We don't yet know the outcome of a number of cliffhangers we were left with.

Jon? Anyone who thinks it's for sure that Bowen's knife penetrated enough to do serious damage, is ignoring clues the author wrote in to suggest otherwise. I'm betting that we'll see the attack from someone else's POV in TWOW. That will clarify a lot. ...

Stannis?Anyone who's read the Theon TWoW chapter and doesn't think there's a good chance Stannis' plans will work out (or not quite work out the way he plans, but still for the best) is betting too soon, I'd say.

Mance? We should realise that the author has provided clues that would allow for Mance and the spearwives to pretty well all avoid immediate capture (and the possibility of suicide or a mercy killing exists for any of them, as well)...We should realise that there could be an uprising against Roose within WF as soon as Ramsay lights out after Jeyne and Theon. And he will. That's the one thing we probably can be sure of.... The Boltons have to have Jeyne, or "Roose's ruse" (pardon me) was for nothing... And Ramsay will be slavering to be on the hunt. He won't be hanging around waiting for a reply to a letter.

I could go on but, I'm not saying all of these situations will work out in the positive but some will and some may go in some completely different direction than any of us expect.

Way too soon to be heaping blame on Jon. Even among the watch, there are signs the dissidents are in the minority.

Love this response and so much to touch on!! Both to the op thread and touching on some juicy stuff i've been building up and i love where you went with it. I considered Maege but wasn't sure about Tormunds age, but after looking at all of his kids and his snow white beard, i think you are right. 

That being said, the catch on daughters and son's is veryyy interesting when looking at all this. I love it. Have you seen any of my other threads and know where im going with this?  Think about what you threw in, mixed with my thoughts on Valyrian activity and blood North of the Wall at least, if not in Winterfell too. Also toss in Alysanne cheating on Jaehaerys with a Stark/Mormont (here's looking at Alleric's son). Then contemplating what Jorah (who should rightfully have Bear Island and Long Claw right now) was doing selling slaves. Benjen and Eddard talking about resettling the Gift. And im starting to get a clearer picture (not fully clear yet) of what is going on in the North. More and more at least seems to be lining into place a little more in this jigsaw puzzle

Would love to talk more, will have to chew on some of this and respond a lil more later  

[bemused]

5 hours ago, Bullrout said:

The Watch already blames Jon.  They were smart enough to take him out before he can make an even bigger mess of things.  Bowen Marsh did it for the watch and he clearly blames Jon for all the crap that went down.  Jon sent his wildlings to get Arya (who he thought was Arya).  He had no right to do that.  He got the watch involved in the politics of the north.  I blame him because that was a move that divided the defenders of the wall.  Jon was no good to the watch anymore.  He was going to take the wildlings away from the wall to attack the Boltons.  

 What you refer to as "the watch" is a handful of watchmen, that we know of.. Thorne, Bowen, Wick, Alf, Mully and my bet is, based on hints in the text, that it won't even include Yarwick and the rest of the builders. (But throw in Septon Cellador.)

What Jon allowed Mance and the spearwives to try, was to look for her escaping northward through the gift  ... that's all we know of Jon's intentions. 

Thorne, Bowen, & co. were against Jon since before he was even elected LC.

Jon was going to take the wildlings to ambush Ramsay and his men on their way to CB - just as his thoughts tell us he would have done against Styr's attack if he had had the manpower at the time.

Why do you think GRRM has Jon tell us how he would like to handle one attack from the south and then later, we see Jon threatened by another attack from the south ... but this time, he has the manpower.

Everyone in the north wants to attack the Boltons ... if Jon and the wildlings can contribute to the cause, the whole north will be pleased, and the south will be otherwise occupied.

Look , I know there's no point my arguing with those who have decided to blame Jon for everything and hold Marsh up to be somehow noble.. (very often with little to no supporting text) ... We simply don't see the books the same way, and that's OK,

We'll just have to read on (someday) and see how it all turns out.

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

8 hours ago, bemused said:

13 hours ago, Bullrout said:

 

 What you refer to as "the watch" is a handful of watchmen, that we know of.. Thorne, Bowen, Wick, Alf, Mully and my bet is, based on hints in the text, that it won't even include Yarwick and the rest of the builders. (But throw in Septon Cellador.)

I see no reason why the majority of men in the watch would have much  approval of Jon than the men you listed. Jon is allowing in the very people to which only a sort while ago were trying to kill them and are in fact responsible for the murder and torture of many of their brothers. In Jon’s defense he legitimately believes he’s doing will help lead to a better outcome. It seems readers to project the majority of readers feelings in regards to Jon onto the black  brothers-that there is a significant part who actually like approve of him and most of his radical ideas or even like Jon. He during his tenure as LC has given them no real reason to think his leadership adequate or convince any that his ideas are good. Like I think  it says something he fails to note anyone of his brothers showing any real approval of his plan to war with House Bolton. Literally all the people he listed having shown support for his venture were warriors from Tormund’s band. The only reaction he does cite any of them having  is Marsh and his followers leaving clearly dissatisfied with Jon’s proclamations.

8 hours ago, bemused said:

Jon was going to take the wildlings to ambush Ramsay and his men on their way to CB - just as his thoughts tell us he would have done against Styr's attack if he had had the manpower at the tim

Where does he say he plans to ambush the Bolton forces? This is logical assumption given actually going to winterfel would be far more suicidal but I don’t remember it being explicitly stated that is what he planned to do.

 

8 hours ago, bemused said:

Why do you think GRRM has Jon tell us how he would like to handle one attack from the south and then later, we see Jon threatened by another attack from the south ... but this time, he has the manpower.

I think you are severely overestimating the wildlings. Jon says flat-out to Ygritte that he believes Mance’s invasion is doomed, even though most of the skilled leadership is south and a lot of the fighting age males are to the south and had way more men than Tormund’s few.  Because the wildlings do not get displined drilled into them, they’re weapons generally are of low quality of anything made south. 

8 hours ago, bemused said:

Everyone in the north wants to attack the Boltons ... if Jon and the wildlings can contribute to the cause, the whole north will be pleased, and the south will be otherwise occupied.

Even if everyone desired to attack the Boltons, not everyone will actually go through with putting their neck on the line over it. Hell, Hother Whorsebane would be the undisputed leader of his house now and he’s shown alliegance House Bolton(the Umbers really don’t get enough credit for their craftyness), and likely would continue to give aid to House Bolton now and report the movements of the wildlings horde that Jon has. All the allies of Stannis would have little choice but to capitulate to the Boltons. And the north has largely viewed the wildlings unfavorably-understable since the wildlings come south to kidnapp and rape their women, murder them, and pillage their villages.  I’ll freely admit many would be satisfied with the fall with House Bolton, but I imagine the wildlings having been shown to do isn’t going to be seen as the best way it could have happened. If Jon somehow wins his radical policies would be a point of contention; like House Mormont has many of their women kidnapped and presumably raped to the point the women on Bear Island had to become fighters-the wildlings being allowed south of the wall. 

8 hours ago, bemused said:

What Jon allowed Mance and the spearwives to try, was to look for her escaping northward through the gift  ... that's all we know of Jon's intentions. 

And ship her far away to some place no king could their hands on her. Bad idea. She should be delivered to Stannis if Jon is going to allow Mance to keep his head-he could actually put the girl to good use, as a trophy and use bargaining chip or a reward to someone’s loyalty.  Jon wouldn’t be acting neutral but hey that shipped sailed away the first time he advised Stannis on how he should treat with men he wanted to recruit for his cause-to which I could forgive given anyone in the room who would hear him doing so would likely be dead should Stannis lose. Stannis is the only king to actually believe(and has been given any real reason to believe quite frankly), the threat of the others-it makes sense to give Stannis some advice with such little risk. 

 

[bemused]

22 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Where does he say he plans to ambush the Bolton forces? This is logical assumption given actually going to winterfel would be far more suicidal but I don’t remember it being explicitly stated that is what he planned to do.

I don't have time to address much, but... Of course like so much else that is important (e.g. R+L=J) it's not explicitly stated, but we're given ample information to figure it out...

Through his time ranging with Mormont and traveling with Mance we see Jon thinking about tactics.. we also see, through Ghost's eyes, that Mance has been teaching some discipline to the wildlings ( drills, attacking in formation, etc.) His efforts fall apart in Stannis' surprise attack. This could easily happen seasoned, disciplined forces as well. ... just keep that in mind...

Then, in ASOS, Jon VII, GRRM places Jon atop the wall, watching for Styr's attack from the south, musing as the defense preparations are going on below ... 

Quote

The thing to do would be to take the attack to them, he thought. With fifty rangers well mounted, we could cut them apart on the road. They did not have fifty rangers, though, nor half as many horses. The garrison had not returned, and there was no way to know just where they were, or even whether the riders that Noye had sent out had reached them.

We shouldn't forget this. We shouldn't assume he suddenly loses the knowledge of tactics he's shown he possesses.

Now we can see one of the reverse parallels that GRRM uses ... This time Jon has the wildlings, and 1. the battle won't be unexpected for them, but for Ramsay, instead... 2. They won't need to fight a pitched battle, but in a guerilla style that they're well used to, deployed by Jon (and they are used to being deployed by their leaders, Mance in particular, that we've seen) 3. Among his fighters, Jon will have Tormund's men, which include... 

Quote

 

The stream was no more than a trickle by the time Toregg emerged from the wood. With him rode a dozen mounted warriors armed with spears and swords. "My rear guard," Tormund said, with a gap-toothed smile. "You crows have rangers. So do we. Them I left in camp in case we were attacked before we all got out."

"Your best men."

"Or my worst. Every man o' them has killed a crow."

 

So he will have able scouts. He will have men used to fighting in winter conditions, among them, some former raiders who will have an idea of the lay of the land ... and we know Jon has said he will arm the free folk from his armory.

I don't think he has any intention of going all the way to WF. ... He has the example of Alys Karstark to inform him (notice that GRRM makes a point of reminding us (and Jon) of Cregan , before Jon recieves the PL or goes to the shieldhall) I believe Jon would expect Ramsay to be following after "his bride" just as Cregan tried to recapture Alys. He won't want to wait for someone else to pick her up first.

[Tagganaro]

On 10/15/2018 at 6:50 AM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I see no reason why the majority of men in the watch would have much  approval of Jon than the men you listed. Jon is allowing in the very people to which only a sort while ago were trying to kill them and are in fact responsible for the murder and torture of many of their brothers. In Jon’s defense he legitimately believes he’s doing will help lead to a better outcome. It seems readers to project the majority of readers feelings in regards to Jon onto the black  brothers-that there is a significant part who actually like approve of him and most of his radical ideas or even like Jon. He during his tenure as LC has given them no real reason to think his leadership adequate or convince any that his ideas are good. Like I think  it says something he fails to note anyone of his brothers showing any real approval of his plan to war with House Bolton. Literally all the people he listed having shown support for his venture were warriors from Tormund’s band. The only reaction he does cite any of them having  is Marsh and his followers leaving clearly dissatisfied with Jon’s proclamations.

We get a pretty good sense that the NW is pretty divided with rangers supporting Jon and stewards and builders not.  For your question of why the NW would approve of Jon allowing in the wildlings the answer is in Jon's answer, and Mormont's before him.  Any NW brother who saw the Others should agree with Jon.  There are not a lot but they are still around.  This is part of the reason why Jon and Bowen are at such an impasse- Bowen was left behind to defend Castle Black and took a wound fighting wildlings who he was already prejudiced towards to begin with- that further solidified his views.  IIRC it is unclear if Bowen ever even saw the Others and fought them- that goes for most of the stewards and builders.

And Jon specifically isn't looking for support from his NW brothers after reading the letter- he denounces their support in his thoughts as he doesn't want them breaking their vows if what he is doing is breaking his vows.

Quote

Where does he say he plans to ambush the Bolton forces? This is logical assumption given actually going to winterfel would be far more suicidal but I don’t remember it being explicitly stated that is what he planned to do.

I don't think he explicitly says that but as you said, it is certainly the more logical assumption.

Quote

I think you are severely overestimating the wildlings. Jon says flat-out to Ygritte that he believes Mance’s invasion is doomed, even though most of the skilled leadership is south and a lot of the fighting age males are to the south and had way more men than Tormund’s few.  Because the wildlings do not get displined drilled into them, they’re weapons generally are of low quality of anything made south. 

Jon was wrong in this assessment.  Without Stannis, Mance would destroy the NW- he could have if he really wanted to but as he himself says, he wasn't looking to bleed his people anymore due to the attacks of the Others.

 

[The Commentator]

Ramsay and the Warden of the North are already blaming Jon.  They've killed Stannis.  The blame is already on Jon.  More blame will come when word gets out that he was getting ready to march against Roose at the head of an army of barbarian wildlings.  

[Varysblackfyre321]

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

For your question of why the NW would approve of Jon allowing in the wildlings the answer is in Jon's answer, and Mormont's before him.  Any NW brother who saw the Others should agree with Jon.  There are not a lot but they are still around.

Jon himself thinks Mormont would not go for allowing the tens of thousands through the wall when Mance was threatening to bring the wall down with the horn. It’s not really an unfa assumption on Jon part truly.  It’s relatively common knowledge that Bear island has had plenty of its’ women kidnapped and raped  by the ironborn and wildlings to the point there women must take up swords.There are not a lot of rangers left who’ve seen wights. I don’t any character alive that we’ve been introduced has been for sure seen one of the others.  Jon himself has not actually seen an other. Only ei

wights. Stewards made up the majority before Mormont’s great ranging. Like I said there’s no reason to think the majority of Black brothers approve of lord Jon after radical policies-he does not convince or truly try to convince his brothers of the necessity of having an opening door policy. Which is a mistake because the second he dies or goes away his reforms and projects would likely be discontinued by his successor.  The Watch’s hierarchy have actually gazed upon the hand of a brother to which was still, hell Alister himself delivered the hand to KL and he clearly is not in support of Jon.

Jon may not have be expecting a lot  visible support after he reads the letter but any would likely stick out in his mind-instead the only reaction he really noted is Marsh and his followers walking away after listing the names of various wildling warriors applauding his declaration to war with House Bolton. If his leadership had produced a significant portion of the watch to like or respect him, one might think there would have been at least a few brothers to which would cheer on Jon’s decision.  

[Varysblackfyre321]

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Jon was wrong in this assessment.  Without Stannis, Mance would destroy the NW- he could have if he really wanted to but as he himself says, he wasn't looking to bleed his people anymore due to the attacks of the Others.

Jon was not wrong. A king beyond getting past the NW has happened before, when the NW watch had plenty more members and far more supplies, but whenever an invading force actually got into South of the powers of the feudal society of the north crushed them. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

11 hours ago, bemused said:

I don't have time to address much, but... Of course like so much else that is important (e.g. R+L=J) it's not explicitly stated, but we're given ample information to figure it out...

Through his time ranging with Mormont and traveling with Mance we see Jon thinking about tactics.. we also see, through Ghost's eyes, that Mance has been teaching some discipline to the wildlings ( drills, attacking in formation, etc.) His efforts fall apart in Stannis' surprise attack. This could easily happen seasoned, disciplined forces as well. ... just keep that in mind...

Then, in ASOS, Jon VII, GRRM places Jon atop the wall, watching for Styr's attack from the south, musing as the defense preparations are going on below ... 

We shouldn't forget this. We shouldn't assume he suddenly loses the knowledge of tactics he's shown he possesses.

Now we can see one of the reverse parallels that GRRM uses ... This time Jon has the wildlings, and 1. the battle won't be unexpected for them, but for Ramsay, instead... 2. They won't need to fight a pitched battle, but in a guerilla style that they're well used to, deployed by Jon (and they are used to being deployed by their leaders, Mance in particular, that we've seen) 3. Among his fighters, Jon will have Tormund's men, which include... 

So he will have able scouts. He will have men used to fighting in winter conditions, among them, some former raiders who will have an idea of the lay of the land ... and we know Jon has said he will arm the free folk from his armory.

I don't think he has any intention of going all the way to WF. ... He has the example of Alys Karstark to inform him (notice that GRRM makes a point of reminding us (and Jon) of Cregan , before Jon recieves the PL or goes to the shieldhall) I believe Jon would expect Ramsay to be following after "his bride" just as Cregan tried to recapture Alys. He won't want to wait for someone else to pick her up first.

I’ll wait until you’ve replied to the rest of my post before I respond. Not ignoring this but I feel I will needlessly repeat myself by mistake. I’ll just say I wasn’t being sarcastic in my question; I’ll admit to have missed The explicitly stated things in the text from time to time. 

[Aline de Gavrillac]

On 10/10/2018 at 11:05 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

Is Jon to blame by us or the Watch for allowing the Wildlings and sworn enemy to pass? When the decision comes from "King" Stannis. Does this conflict with their vows and staying out of southern affairs?

 

The Night's Watch takes no part in the affairs of the South, but what happens when a king or a queen comes to the Wall? What happens when they order the Wildlings through the wall and settled in the gift?

Well, what happens when a queen comes North and orders land handed over to the Watch as the New Gift? Or orders the Night's Watched closed and a new castle built? Or orders the Lords and Nights Watch to end first Night? What would have happened if Alysanne had ordered the Wildlings through the Wall and settled in the gift? 
 

Would the Lord Commander fight said King or Queen? Resist? To what end? What if violence is threatened against the Watch? Does the Lord Commander have the right? His castles don't defend against the southern lords. 

Should Jon defy Stannis and refuse? What then? Would Stannis give Jon to the flames? Would there be war? Is it in Jon's power to obey the King, and or defy the King? How so, when you cannot defend your self against any king inflicting his will?

 

Edit- Im personally greatly interested in how Benjen and Eddard planned to settle the gift

Edit, Edit- This post in no way is questioning the reason's Jon was stabbed, which were for leading a group to Winterfell to rescue his sister. 

Of course Dumb (Stannis) and Dumber (Jon) will get the blame.   Stannis could have done everything he could to make peace with Roose Bolton if his main interest was stopping the Others.  Jon would have forgotten Arya instead of picking a fight with the Boltons if he put stopping the Others as his main priority.  These two guys should get the blame.  

Stannis should not have any authority at the wall.  Put he and Jon together and they still do not have the right to open the gates to thousands of wildlings without first getting approval from King's Landing.  

[bemused]

12 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I’ll wait until you’ve replied to the rest of my post before I respond. Not ignoring this but I feel I will needlessly repeat myself by mistake. I’ll just say I wasn’t being sarcastic in my question; I’ll admit to have missed The explicitly stated things in the text from time to time.

Oh, I didn't think you were being sarcastic, and I wasn't either. Sometimes I worry that I may be guilty of over-stressing what I type – sometimes it's stressing what I think is important – and sometimes I'm just trying to express what my inflection would be, if I was speaking.

Once again I don't have time to respond to everything you posted, but I'll do what I can. I must say I'm largely in agreement with @Tagganaro,though....

On 10/15/2018 at 3:50 AM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

project the majority of readers feelings in regards to Jon onto the black  brothers-that there is a significant part who actually like approve of him and most of his radical ideas or even like Jon. He during his tenure as LC has given them no real reason to think his leadership adequate or convince any that his ideas are good. Like I think  it says something he fails to note anyone of his brothers showing any real approval of his plan to war with House Bolton. Literally all the people he listed having shown support for his venture were warriors from Tormund’s band. The only reaction he does cite any of them having  is Marsh and his followers leaving clearly dissatisfied with Jon’s proclamations.

They know he held the wall against Styr and Mance. They know that Bowen left CB very poorly defended while chasing after Mance's feints and managed to lose a hundred men. Bowen is always saying, the men won't like this or that.. yet when men (as a group) actually want to ask Jon something, it isn't Bowen who speaks for them... 

Quote

A small crowd of black brothers was waiting by the gate when Jon and his companions emerged south of the Wall. Ulmer of the Kingswood was amongst them, and it was the old archer who came forward to speak for the rest. "If it please m'lord, the lads were wondering. Will it be peace, m'lord? Or blood and iron?"..... ADWD, Jon XI

... they're only asking which is the result of his meeting with Tormund .. They don't seem too dismayed that it's to be peace.

17 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

We get a pretty good sense that the NW is pretty divided with rangers supporting Jon and stewards and builders not.

Yes, and I'll go even farther, I don't think Othell is in with the mutiny against Jon.. I think he will follow the pattern he set back at Jon's choosing.. At first he appeared to be swayed by Thorne and Marsh, then thought better of it at the last moment.

Alf is a builder and he blamed Jon for his (probable) lover's death... but we don't really know if he actually stabbed Jon,when it came to it (I don't think it's at all clear that four knives actually struck... but that's another story.) I think the stewards and builders will be at least a mixed bag.

In the shieldhall, wildlings outnumber the watch 5 - 1 and it's the wildlings whose reactions he's watching. They are the ones he's appealing to ... but of course he notices Marsh & co.. Marsh has been resisting and complaining and generally being unhelpful from square one.

On 10/15/2018 at 3:50 AM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Even if everyone desired to attack the Boltons, not everyone will actually go through with putting their neck on the line over it. Hell, Hother Whorsebane would be the undisputed leader of his house now and he’s shown alliegance House Bolton(the Umbers really don’t get enough credit for their craftyness), and likely would continue to give aid to House Bolton now and report the movements of the wildlings horde that Jon has. All the allies of Stannis would have little choice but to capitulate to the Boltons.

I think they all are putting their necks on the line already. All of the northmen inside WF except for Bolton's own men are against Roose, IMO. I believe the only real allies he had were the Karstarks and that was part of Arnolf's and Cregan's plan to seize rulership of their house (hoping that Harrion will be killed). ... but the regular men he took to Stannis can probably be turned easily.

Anyway.. we've been left on the verge of a battle outside WF, and I believe another within, and we don't know what the situation will be at the wall, but I suspect it won't be very happy for Bowen and his plotters.

[Varysblackfyre321]

21 hours ago, bemused said:

On 10/15/2018 at 3:50 AM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

 

They know he held the wall against Styr and Mance. They know that Bowen left CB very poorly defended chasing after Mance's feints and managed to lose a hundred men, Bowen is always saying, the men won't like this or that.. yet when men (as a group) actually want to ask Jon something, it isn't Bowen who speaks for them... 

They know Jon helped with defending Castle Black. Jon could have very well abandoned them knowing(as he did), the force Mance would be crushed or because he got into some fight a wildling.  He didn’t, but his story of Half-hand having Jon literally kill him does not really seem that more believeble story if you don’t know Jon that well. But even in the immediate aftermath of his securing Castle Black when Slynt came along to imprison talk of him being some wildling loving traitor was taking root. They witnessed Jon mercy kill a mance who murdered their brothers and whose followers tortured many of their brothers and friends-as if he deserves better.   They know Jon is allowing the very “savages” free entry into the realm. Even scum such as the Weeper who plucked the eyes out of 3 brothers took off their heads and displayed it all it for the brothers at the wall to see-Jon is really unlikely to have a significant portion of the watch doing what he’s doing without really trying to convince them of the necessity of his actions.

Marsh is made clear he does have the builders and stewards in his corner-hench them being described by Jon as brisling when he’s countered and made fun for suggesting hunters don’t hunt  north of the wall

Seriously, what do you think gives any hint there is or likely a significant portion of the watch who actually approved of Jon’s tenure as lord commander? That a lot them supported his “progressive” reign?

21 hours ago, bemused said:

I think they all are putting their necks on the line already. All of the northmen inside WF except for Bolton's own men are against Roose, IMO. I believe the only real allies he had were the Karstarks and that was part of Arnolf's and Cregan's plan to seize rulership of their house (hoping that Harrion will be killed). ... but the regular men he took to Stannis can probably be turned easily.

Ah let me rephrase-they will not hang themselves with the line to get back at House Bolton. I mean hatred for the Boltons and House Lannister was enough to get  lords who fought for Robb’s rebellion to stay united and continue the fight in the immediate aftermath of the RW-most lords were in fact scrambling  to bend the knee. The lords we see supporting Stannis, do so out of a calculated risk-he’s a proven battle-commander with a claim to the Iron throne as as his own army. Jon is a bastard oath-breaker whose barely 17 whose military experience they would not know with a horde of wildlings(men who’ve been pillaging and raping their people for years and who are viewed near subhuman), they fear the Boltons, they will comply until/if there is a time to rebel.

[Varysblackfyre321]

22 hours ago, bemused said:

Anyway.. we've been left on the verge of a battle outside WF, and I believe another within, and we don't know what the situation will be at the wall, but I suspect it won't be very happy for Bowen and his plotters.

Likely they will be all hanged or beheaded. Though I would hope we would see Jon trying to gage how his brothers talk of it in private, and see just how people received  Marsh’s coup. Marsh did his job adequately enough to where Jon had no complaints in that regard-hell Marsh even advised Jon to not to go south of the wall to the woods to induct some recruits fearing that the weeper would attack them(which isn’t exactly an unrealistic fear given we see him encounter 9 wildlings in the woods who luck would  have it weren’t warriors allighned with the weeper) it doesn’t seem right to boil down his helpfulness to simply bitching and moaning-he did complain(a lot) but he in general perform his tasks as lord Steward.  But it is clear from the beginning their(Jon and Marsh’s) views on the direction of the watch and how to best ensure its survival are opposed to each other. Marsh’s idea of not allowing all the wildlings in Jon’s eyes appears to be  cautious-to the point where it becomes dangerous(and he’s not wrong mostly) yes, it is a risk to allow tens of thousands of wildlings in, its a risk(Jon will admit this-he understands they could very well turn bad he does feel comfortable giving Stannis weapons and armor to give them) to send hunters north of the wall for food, it’s a risk to give some aid to Stannis but risks are sometimes necessary to take.

[Varysblackfyre321]

On 10/16/2018 at 2:02 AM, bemused said:

Now we can see one of the reverse parallels that GRRM uses ... This time Jon has the wildlings, and 1. the battle won't be unexpected for them, but for Ramsay, instead... 2. They won't need to fight a pitched battle, but in a guerilla style that they're well used to, deployed by Jon (and they are used to being deployed by their leaders, Mance in particular, that we've seen) 3. Among his fighters, Jon will have Tormund's men, which inc

Unlikely. Ramsey should be alerted to the fact Jon just left the wall with some wildling-like hasn’t really made his little venture to recruit Tormund a that big of a secret, the umbers could easily send message to house Bolton letting them know their movements in land. But even if the Umbers(being the opportunistic bastards they are), didn’t spill the beans it’d be no great feat to see Jon trying something like you know fighting this. And Mance’s camp was overrun easily because it consisted mostly of cripples, women, old men and literal children. They were simply not equipped to defend against Stannis’ force with the conditions they were in at that moment. They will fight like they usually fight-not really disciplined, and concerned with their own glory. 

The displined soldiers(to which the boltons have a monopoly of), would immediate crumble in the face of Tormund and his men coming out screaming-like guerila warfare typically relies quick attacks on small groups and quick retreats to some place safe-Tormund and Jon have no such refuge, they can’t  do guerrila warfare, they’re many to simply disappear, and the army they group they’re attacking is too big, for them to use such hit and run and tactics to be effective. 

[The Drunkard]

I mostly agree with everything Jon did in ADWD, but would argue that if you're a stickler for neutrality above all else, he clearly broke it. 

The initial decision to let the wildlings into the realm was made by Stannis, but Jon was clearly in favour of it and did everything he could to support it (like rewriting the agreement with Tormund in the wildlings' favour) without regard for how the Bolton or Lannister regimes would see it. It didn't stop there, either. He gave Stannis a castle, arms and armour, strategic advice, guides to reach the clansmen, warned him about the Karstark betrayal and helped him establish a loan with the Iron Bank. He hitched his wagon to Stannis in many ways, not just in terms of letting the wildlings through, because Stannis would be of greatest benefit to the Watch and the war against the Others (and, probably, because he wanted some vengeance against the Boltons). I would blame him for none of that, but a more diplomatic Lord Commander wouldn't be contorting himself to help one pretender over another. 

[Tagganaro]

6 hours ago, bemused said:

Yes, and I'll go even farther, I don't think Othell is in with the mutiny against Jon.. I think he will follow the pattern he set back at Jon's choosing.. At first he appeared to be swayed by Thorne and Marsh, then thought better of it at the last moment.

Alf is a builder and he blamed Jon for his (probable) lover's death... but we don't really know if he actually stabbed Jon,when it came to it (I don't think it's at all clear that four knives actually struck... but that's another story.) I think the stewards and builders will be at least a mixed bag.

I completely agree with this.  Assuming we have four different knives (although I agree it's not entirely clear we do), Bowen Marsh has 3 other people with him that Jon notes, one of which is Wick who we know was another conspirator.  I think for now it's a fair assumption that the 4 knives were Bowen, Wick, Left Hand Lew, and Alf of Runnymudd.  Othell is an idiot (his fear of the boar army Borroq is building up in his head cracks me up every time), but he's a relatively dutiful one.  I don't see him getting involved in something like this.

19 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Jon was not wrong. A king beyond getting past the NW has happened before, when the NW watch had plenty more members and far more supplies, but whenever an invading force actually got into South of the powers of the feudal society of the north crushed them. 

Well it's sort of unclear to what Jon is referring to and to what Mance's actual plans are past getting south of the Wall.  I think unquestionably if Stannis didn't show up Mance wins the Battle of the Wall and can get his people south of it.  But beyond that?  Yeah tough to say.  He'd have no chance against a united North but that is obviously not what is going on in ASOS/ADWD.  

20 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Jon himself thinks Mormont would not go for allowing the tens of thousands through the wall when Mance was threatening to bring the wall down with the horn. It’s not really an unfa assumption on Jon part truly.  It’s relatively common knowledge that Bear island has had plenty of its’ women kidnapped and raped  by the ironborn and wildlings to the point there women must take up swords.

We have Mormont's own thoughts on the matter after the Battle at the Fist of the First Men.  Mormont himself thinks the Wall wasn't built to keep the wildlings out and explicitly connects wildings to the realms of men the Night's Watch is supposed to protect (the same exact epiphany Jon comes to in ADWD before enacting his plan to let Tormund through).  Of course Jon does not know this as Mormont never makes it back.  

Again I don't doubt there is a lot of hatred for the wildlings.  What I doubt is that people who have actually seen the Others/wights and fought against them aren't capable of distinguishing between the kind of "evil" the wildlings bring to the table and the ones the Others do.  And with that in mind they are far more accepting of the wildlings, especially since leaving the wildlings to die North of the Wall simply makes the Others even stronger.

Quote

There are not a lot of rangers left who’ve seen wights. I don’t any character alive that we’ve been introduced has been for sure seen one of the others.  Jon himself has not actually seen an other. 

By Others I mean both the White Walkers and the wights.  Sorry if that was unclear.  I will simplify to say that people who know or suspect what is really waiting North of the Wall are far more inclined to allow wildlings through for the reasons I just set forth above.

Quote

 Stewards made up the majority before Mormont’s great ranging. Like I said there’s no reason to think the majority of Black brothers approve of lord Jon after radical policies-he does not convince or truly try to convince his brothers of the necessity of having an opening door policy. Which is a mistake because the second he dies or goes away his reforms and projects would likely be discontinued by his successor.  The Watch’s hierarchy have actually gazed upon the hand of a brother to which was still, hell Alister himself delivered the hand to KL and he clearly is not in support of Jon.

There is likewise no reason to think a majority of Black brothers don't approve of Jon's policies.  We see a ton of ordinary NW brothers generally very supportive of Jon (there's a reason he gets elected LC by winning 2/3 of his brothers votes while Bowen Marsh has like 10 votes total).  @bemused quoted Ulmer with his small group clearly supporting Jon (or at least not opposed to him), we know Jon has a ton of friends he made over the years who support him (Edd, Grenn, Pyp, etc.), we know most of the rangers support Jon, and we know many of the newer recruits look up to him (like the several recruits who go take their vows at the weirwood grove who are not Northmen.  We also know that the old clan Lords who live near the Wall and despise the wildlings are supportive of Jon once he explains that he has hostages from Tormund.  It really is just the bitter racists who everyone hates that we know are against Jon.  The ones like Marsh who is consistently described not in a kind way by everybody who knows and Janos/Alliser who everyone despises.  

Quote

Jon may not have be expecting a lot  visible support after he reads the letter but any would likely stick out in his mind-instead the only reaction he really noted is Marsh and his followers walking away after listing the names of various wildling warriors applauding his declaration to war with House Bolton. If his leadership had produced a significant portion of the watch to like or respect him, one might think there would have been at least a few brothers to which would cheer on Jon’s decision.  

Why?  Again Jon is explicitly thinking to himself that he doesn't want their support, why would he look for it then?  Why would the brothers cheer this scenario, which is like the worst possible thing that could happen to the NW?  There's a reason why Clydas is terrified by the Pink Letter.  Jon can have widespread support for most of his actions but not have it for something like this, which even Jon himself realizes is beyond the pale.

[Chris Mormont]

On 10/11/2018 at 2:15 AM, AlaskanSandman said:

Its not taking in Stannis that's the problem, its Jon allowing Stannis to force them to allow the enemy through the wall and settle in the gift. 

"Allowing Stannis to force them..."  You cannot allow someone to force you, they either force you or you fight, and in this case it would have been suicide to fight.   The choice was comply or die, after which the Wildings would have been allowed in by Stannis.

People keep trying to blame Jon, but even though he was open to the idea, he was in a no win situation. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

13 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

There is likewise no reason to think a majority of Black brothers don't approve of Jon's policies.

There really is; the wildlings who Jon would allow in were trying  just a few months ago trying to murder them and have been murdering them  (as well as torturing them), for centuries.  That is reason alone for most to  to  not approve  any arrangement to which allows them across the wall. The wounds are still fresh.Also  Marsh has been made clear the core of his support comes from the builders and stewards-people who make up the clear majority of the brotherhood seeing as Marsh’s viewed are very isolationist one can conclude that his views on how to deal with the wildlings is the predominant one. Mallister and Pyke make clear when Jon actually sends them wildlings males(although not in the best condition admitably), that their views are similar to Marsh in terms of the wildlings; They both make readily apparent they do not see the wildlings being warranted any monicum of trust, Pyke went as far as to declare them totally worthless (they weren’t there were plenty of tasks that could do), other than the fact he could perhaps hang them(which I could imagine him doing), just to send a message to the wildlings. Jon’s radical policies are not presented as though they are popular. 

That is to be expected the type of massive migration Jon wants often breeds outrage. 

13 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

We see a ton of ordinary NW brothers generally very supportive of Jon

Can you list the instances where we see Jon getting praised for his radical policies concerning the wildlings  by his brothers?    I do not mean point to instances to where they follow his ordered with no complaint.

13 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

there's a reason he gets elected LC by winning 2/3 of his brothers votes while Bowen Marsh has like 10 votes total).  

Yeah the reason is, Pyke and Mallister were being childish pricks. Each hated the prospect the other being lord Commander so much that would when Sam said Stannis would pick the other they threw their support behind Jon as a way to avoid such a (in their eyes) horrifying outcome. They do not do throw their lot(and by extension the men under their command at their castles) with Jon because they like Jon as a person or  his ideas or even because they they think Jon has done anything in his career as a black brother or his life to actually  earn the position. They throw their lot in with Jon to spite each other. Mallister may also  have been slightly also influenced to say yes to the idea of voting for Jon by his thoughts of only nobles having any business to be of the position of lord commander-I’m sure if it was up to him he’d literally have it so that blood and upbringing are things that make one even  eligible to try for the position. Jon though a bastard did grow apart of the higher caste and was sired by a respectable noble man(Ned) near the highest rank.  Sam makes perfectly clear Slynt was the only one who was the only one to gain votes as time passed, and one of the first things he did when arrived at the wall was arrest Jon and promise to see Jon executed. 

13 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Ulmer with his small group clearly supporting Jon (or at least not opposed to him), we know Jon has a ton of friends he made over the years who support him (Edd, Grenn, Pyp, etc.), we know most of the rangers support Jon,

The small group Ulmer spoke were not noted to show approval or disapproval at Jon decision-drawings conclusions of support for Jon seems wrong. The rangers who are in the clear minority obey Jon and dislike Marsh; where it’s really show they are in favor of what Jon is doing in terms of letting all  the wildlings in? Even scum such as the weeper?And a ton of friends? This is a stretch. He has at best been to be shown to haven gotten the obedience/friendship  of most the recruits he signed up with; most are dead and Pyp and Grenn have lost much of their adulation for Jon since he has become lord commander; in their eyes he’s showing no appreciation for having kept his neck out of the noose by helping to insure Jon got elected instead of Slynt.

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

15 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Jon, and we know many of the newer recruits look up to him (like the several recruits who go take their vows at the weirwood grove who are not Northmen.  

Where are you getting the majority of them look up to Jon? 

15 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

We also know that the old clan Lords who live near the Wall and despise the wildlings are supportive of Jon once he explains that he has hostages from Tormund.  It really is just the bitter racists who everyone hates that we know are against Jon. 

 They don’t really don’t show support of Jon. After his announcement they may be open to the idea of Jon having  some semblance of competence but they don’t pretend the issue of the wildlings renegading on their agreement is no longer a major thing to worry about.  They’d be fools to take complete comfort in that Jon has hostages from the wildlings. Especially when Jon plans on bring that psychopath Weeper over.  The Norrey cpoints to how the moutain clans had rebelled against WF after hostages were given and asks Jon(who he has the gaul to call boy), if he’d really execute the hostages when it came down to it-it’s clear he wasn’t won over to Jon’s idea being good or thought it likely to succeed with now having the knowledge of the hostages. It’s not just some bitter racists everyone hates that against Jon’s policies-again it’s likely the majority that are against Jon’s radical policies concerning the wildlingss, Mallister and Pyke show they are in alighnment with Marsh’s view bringing so many wildlings to be a bad idea-again Pyke seems to genuinely want to straight up execute the wildlings Jon sent over and Marsh has been noted as having the group that make up the majority of the watch as his core base, whenever Marsh is talked by a arrange Jon notes anger coming from the builders and stewards-his political views clearly are not rarity amongst the brotherhood. And everyone did not despise Janos-this is projecting the general sentiment felt by the fandom onto the character. Again Jon and his friends thought him the most likely candidate to actually win the position of LC before Sam fear-mongered to Mallister and Pyke. They do in fact despise Alliser.