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UK Politics: Austerity has ended - More cuts to come.

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Old thread locked so new one.

 

Next Saturday there is going to be a protest march in London for the people vote.  I personally find the idea of a 2nd referendum problematic to say the least.  However I also feel that Brexit is going to cause much suffering and Many deaths.  It will line the pockets of some very rich tax avoiding people cause massive de-regulation lowering safety, food and worker standards as well as tanking our economy and bringing an end to the NHS.  Some people may say "project fear"  Well I really really hope I'm wrong, but I genuinely believe this will be the result, and because of this I feel I have a moral and ethical obligation to do what I can to stop Brexit happening.  So yeah I will be going on that march.

 

So since you are all so much wittier than myself, what should I put on my protest sign?  At the moment I'm thinking of a Big red bus with either Tax Mog and fund out NHS       or Brexit = US style healthcare.

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21 minutes ago, Pebble said:

Old thread locked so new one.

 

Next Saturday there is going to be a protest march in London for the people vote.  I personally find the idea of a 2nd referendum problematic to say the least.  However I also feel that Brexit is going to cause much suffering and Many deaths.  It will line the pockets of some very rich tax avoiding people cause massive de-regulation lowering safety, food and worker standards as well as tanking our economy and bringing an end to the NHS.  Some people may say "project fear"  Well I really really hope I'm wrong, but I genuinely believe this will be the result, and because of this I feel I have a moral and ethical obligation to do what I can to stop Brexit happening.  So yeah I will be going on that march.

 

So since you are all so much wittier than myself, what should I put on my protest sign?  At the moment I'm thinking of a Big red bus with either Tax Mog and fund out NHS       or Brexit = US style healthcare.

"Woe, woe and Thrice Woe!"

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So in other underreported news (at least here it was not the talk of the day).

The negotiations between the UK and the EU have failed. The least surprising bit, it was teh backstop solution for Ireland that killed talks.

The EU's position: backstop as in, this thing will remain in place indefinately, unless there's another equally well working solution.

The UK's position: Backstop, as in, we agree to this until the end of the the whole Brexit process, and then we'll see, and talk again, maybe.

 

So, I stick with my earlier gloomy prediction of this thing heading towards a no-deal cliff-edge brexit.

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Well to be fair, May's position is now untenable. She can't get any of the options through Parliament without someone shooting them down (her own party, the opposition, the DUP), so unless she pulls something amazing out of the bag (which is unlikely), it's all over already. It's going to be Remain or No-Deal, and since neither position has a mandate from the British people, that makes either a second referendum or a general election more likely.

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2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Well to be fair, May's position is now untenable. She can't get any of the options through Parliament without someone shooting them down (her own party, the opposition, the DUP), so unless she pulls something amazing out of the bag (which is unlikely), it's all over already.

I thought we established that a good while ago. Last time in the previous UK politics thread.

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

It's going to be Remain or No-Deal, and since neither position has a mandate from the British people, that makes either a second referendum or a general election more likely.

That is somewhat questionable. She has no mandate to remain right now, that much we can agree on. She has a mandate (referendum result) to leave the EU, that's about it. We can talk all day long, how the referendum was flawed and should have never been held in the first place, but that's that.

Now then, I only see a second referendum as her get out of jail card. And that's only if remain wins this time around. Which is probable, but not certain.

With the new GE, I just really fail to see how it changes anything. As long as Corbyn is spouting his will of the people mantra and just campaigns on a we will deliver a good Brexit, there's just no point. And there's also the worst case scenario, that you get pretty much the same electoral map, you had the last time around.

Edited by A Horse Named Stranger

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2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Well to be fair, May's position is now untenable. She can't get any of the options through Parliament without someone shooting them down (her own party, the opposition, the DUP), so unless she pulls something amazing out of the bag (which is unlikely), it's all over already. It's going to be Remain or No-Deal, and since neither position has a mandate from the British people, that makes either a second referendum or a general election more likely.

Out of those two choices I'd heavily favour a second referendum, firstly because it would give a clear indication weather peoples views had changed, and secondly I think a Corbyn government could be equally as inept at negotiating a Brexit deal as Mays, and if May won it would give her a mandate for another 5 years of stupidity.

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I’m really not seeing how the border situation can be overcome and how it was overlooked in the campaign. It’s a bit heartbreaking tbh

 

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The way things are going actually does help the referendum cause. If May came back with a deal - any workable deal - then the choice in Commons would be between the deal or no-deal (Noel Edmonds can sub for Bercow on that day). However, if no-deal becomes "inevitable", that fundamentally shifts everything.

A second referendum could then be held on the question, "Shall the UK remain part of the European Union or leave with no deal and trade under World Trade Organisation rules?" That's what we were missing before when we were talking about 3 or 4 questions and the rightful response that would be far too messy and impractical.

The question becomes to what degree are the Remainer and Soft Brexit Conservatives prepared to put forward that idea? Holding a referendum may also be more practical than a General Election due to the fixed term limit rule. As I understand it, holding a referendum requires a straight majority in the Commons, whilst the fixed term rules require a 66% vote in favour which may be a bit trickier to achieve (depending on how many Tories would shoot it down out of fear of a Corbyn victory). Whether May would then survive the inevitable leadership challenge is another question, but as Parliament passes the referendum legislation, the new leader wouldn't then be able to cancel it.

The future of the issue, and the UK as it currently exists, may fall on Theresa May's integrity and sense of political honour.

Jesus Christ.

59 minutes ago, Deedles said:

I’m really not seeing how the border situation can be overcome and how it was overlooked in the campaign. It’s a bit heartbreaking tbh

It wasn't. It was raised as an issue and completely ignored by the Leave side.

More to the point, I think those people with skin in the game (my family is from Northern Ireland) completely underestimated how little of a shit a vast number of people in the UK give about Northern Ireland, don't really understand or know what the Troubles were about, and furthermore don't care because that was all in the past and a return to the bombings etc was just part of Project Fear.

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22 minutes ago, Werthead said:

More to the point, I think those people with skin in the game (my family is from Northern Ireland) completely underestimated how little of a shit a vast number of people in the UK give about Northern Ireland, don't really understand or know what the Troubles were about, and furthermore don't care because that was all in the past and a return to the bombings etc was just part of Project Fear.



I think a large part of the problem in general is that life in the UK has been getting essentially better for so long - don't get me wrong there have been some shit bits but ultimately the narrative at least is that we've been basically stepping up since the end of the war, and even Northern Ireland is part of that narrative in the end- that a lot of people just cannot get their heads around the idea that things might backslide and get really bad. Because while in that time things have been really bad for certain areas or for certain parts of society, it's not really been the case for the whole nation. And it's difficult to accept that that's possible.

It's a similar problem as with climate change, to go off on a completely different tangent that's been on my mind the last few days. Even most people with the best will in the world towards it can't really accept or get their heads around how bad it could be. Heck, it really only hit home for me recently which is why I'm kind of freaking out about it right now.

But everyone should be freaking out about it and everyone should be freaking out about the prospect of a No Deal or bad Brexit.

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1 minute ago, polishgenius said:

I think a large part of the problem in general is that life in the UK has been getting essentially better for so long - don't get me wrong there have been some shit bits but ultimately the narrative at least is that we've been basically stepping up since the end of the war, and even Northern Ireland is part of that narrative in the end- that a lot of people just cannot get their heads around the idea that things might backslide and get really bad. Because while in that time things have been really bad for certain areas or for certain parts of society, it's not really been the case for the whole nation. And it's difficult to accept that that's possible.

It's a similar problem as with climate change, to go off on a completely different tangent that's been on my mind the last few days. Even most people with the best will in the world towards it can't really accept or get their heads around how bad it could be. Heck, it really only hit home for me recently which is why I'm kind of freaking out about it right now.

But everyone should be freaking out about it and everyone should be freaking out about the prospect of a No Deal or bad Brexit.

Paradigm blindness. People are so used to things being a certain way, the idea they would not continue in that vain without working at it is completely unimaginable to them. It's a form of decadence, and always ends badly.

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41 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The question becomes to what degree are the Remainer and Soft Brexit Conservatives prepared to put forward that idea? Holding a referendum may also be more practical than a General Election due to the fixed term limit rule. As I understand it, holding a referendum requires a straight majority in the Commons, whilst the fixed term rules require a 66% vote in favour which may be a bit trickier to achieve (depending on how many Tories would shoot it down out of fear of a Corbyn victory). Whether May would then survive the inevitable leadership challenge is another question, but as Parliament passes the referendum legislation, the new leader wouldn't then be able to cancel it.

A vote of no confidence in the government can also cause an election under the act so they don't necessarily need the 66%. Alternatively, they could pass new legislation to replace the Fixed Terms rules, which would probably be more acceptable to any Tories backing the idea.

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7 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Paradigm blindness.



Thank you for that phrase. It's immediately very useful in parsing what's going on and I kind of needed it.

We're facing it in an awful lot of ways to be honest. I think we've briefly discussed this before round here but I feel the acceleration of certain technologies is going to take us by surprise and fundamentally restructure our society too.

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13 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

With the new GE, I just really fail to see how it changes anything. As long as Corbyn is spouting his will of the people mantra and just campaigns on a we will deliver a good Brexit, there's just no point. And there's also the worst case scenario, that you get pretty much the same electoral map, you had the last time around.

Current projections, in fact, are even worse:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

The Tories lose another dozen or so seats. Labour are static. The Lib Dems gain some and the SNP gain some. In theory a 'grand coalition' of SNP, Lib Dem, Labour and Plaid Cymru (plus the Greens) can take power but in practice the Labour party have already ruled this out because they won't work with the SNP and the numbers don't even come close to adding up without them. May can't even get a majority with the DUP. Basically, paralysis. 

But Labour believe the chance of them shifting the polls and winning an outright majority is good enough, and don't want a second referendum. 

11 hours ago, Werthead said:

More to the point, I think those people with skin in the game (my family is from Northern Ireland) completely underestimated how little of a shit a vast number of people in the UK give about Northern Ireland, don't really understand or know what the Troubles were about, and furthermore don't care because that was all in the past and a return to the bombings etc was just part of Project Fear.

Ref: http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/1319722-mays-precious-union-has-little-support-in-brexit-britain

 

Quote

Clear majorities of English Conservatives would support Scottish independence (79%) or the collapse of the NI Peace Process (75%) as the price of Brexit;
87% of overwhelmingly Unionist Leave voters in Northern Ireland see the collapse of the peace process as an acceptable price for Brexit and 86% say that of a Yes vote in IndyRef2;

Similarly, 84% of Welsh leave voters and 73% of Welsh Conservative voters indicated that jeopardising peace in Northern Ireland would be a price worth paying for Brexit.

 

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JFC those are some depressing numbers mormont. This is the slowest of slow motion trains running off a cliff ever, I can't believe that people are actually willing to pay this price to hurt themselves over a perceived slight when they were in fact getting favourable treatment.

11 hours ago, polishgenius said:

It's a similar problem as with climate change, to go off on a completely different tangent that's been on my mind the last few days. Even most people with the best will in the world towards it can't really accept or get their heads around how bad it could be. Heck, it really only hit home for me recently which is why I'm kind of freaking out about it right now.

But everyone should be freaking out about it and everyone should be freaking out about the prospect of a No Deal or bad Brexit.

Yeah I've accepted its an issue for as long as I can remember, but this latest round of the IPCC report has really had it strike home for me. That the way things are going I'm actually going to be alive to see the world go to shit and the majority of people that could do anything would rather build walls and weapons to keep the Other out than lift a finger to stop it.

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2 hours ago, mormont said:

Current projections, in fact, are even worse:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

The Tories lose another dozen or so seats. Labour are static. The Lib Dems gain some and the SNP gain some. In theory a 'grand coalition' of SNP, Lib Dem, Labour and Plaid Cymru (plus the Greens) can take power but in practice the Labour party have already ruled this out because they won't work with the SNP and the numbers don't even come close to adding up without them. May can't even get a majority with the DUP. Basically, paralysis. 

But Labour believe the chance of them shifting the polls and winning an outright majority is good enough, and don't want a second referendum. 

Ok, that's worse in theory. But not in practice, at least IMHO. You have a paralyzed parliament on Brexit in anything but name now, anyway.

But if Labour believes they can win an outright majority they are delusional. For that to happen, the SNP would have to implode completely and (close to) all their seats need to go to Labour for them to have a chance for that to happen. In practice, Labour might try to win over the SNP, but that would involve IndyRef II in the not so distant future.

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1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Ok, that's worse in theory. But not in practice, at least IMHO. You have a paralyzed parliament on Brexit in anything but name now, anyway.

But if Labour believes they can win an outright majority they are delusional. For that to happen, the SNP would have to implode completely and (close to) all their seats need to go to Labour for them to have a chance for that to happen. In practice, Labour might try to win over the SNP, but that would involve IndyRef II in the not so distant future.

That last is also not an option. For much the same reason senior Scottish Tories are threatening to resign if NI gets a special deal, the Scottish Labour leadership would undoubtedly resign if any second independence referendum were offered as a sweetener to get the SNP to sign up to a coalition (or even a confidence-and-supply arrangement) in the UK Parliament. 

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Just now, mormont said:

That last is also not an option. For much the same reason senior Scottish Tories are threatening to resign if NI gets a special deal, the Scottish Labour leadership would undoubtedly resign if any second independence referendum were offered as a sweetener to get the SNP to sign up to a coalition (or even a confidence-and-supply arrangement) in the UK Parliament. 

So you are really fucked then, I guess.

But isn't IndYRef II pretty much the only acceptable price for the SNP to support Jeezer's fun ride over the cliff? As in, "Ok, this is gonna be bad, but we have emergency ejection seat for Scotland installed."

 

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31 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Ok, that's worse in theory. But not in practice, at least IMHO. You have a paralyzed parliament on Brexit in anything but name now, anyway.

But if Labour believes they can win an outright majority they are delusional. For that to happen, the SNP would have to implode completely and (close to) all their seats need to go to Labour for them to have a chance for that to happen. In practice, Labour might try to win over the SNP, but that would involve IndyRef II in the not so distant future.

If a deal can be struck between the government and the EU, IMHO, it is likely to pass the Commons.  The ERG are a load of piss and wind (how many times have they threatened a leadership contest?) and a lot of Labour MPs seem prepared to abstain, if the alternative is No Deal.  Things may well get harder for the government after that, though, as disgruntled MPs vote against other pieces of legislation.

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14 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

But isn't IndYRef II pretty much the only acceptable price for the SNP to support Jeezer's fun ride over the cliff? As in, "Ok, this is gonna be bad, but we have emergency ejection seat for Scotland installed."

Pretty much, yes. But it doesn't matter. As I've noted before, non-Scots who talk about Labour/SNP coalitions tend not to really understand the absolutely visceral antipathy to the SNP among senior Scottish Labour figures. Plenty of them will be urging the Labour leadership to offer the SNP exactly nothing, instead challenging them to support the Labour agenda for free.

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