UK Politics: Austerity has ended - More cuts to come.

[Werthead]

 

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It could be a very weird election campaign if Theresa May was still the Tory leader and put her deal in their manifesto because there would be dozens of her MPs openly opposed to their party's manifesto. I think there's a lot of danger for the Tories in that scenario because they'd be fighting amongst themselves as much as they were fighting the opposition. Labour aren't immune to those problems either. 

 

 

This could shatter the Conservative Party altogether, snapping their spine, splitting the party and making any successor party unelectable for generations to come.

I see no downside in this.

 

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Deal agreed. Now for the real work to start, herding the conservative cats. 

 

 

I can't see it happening, at least in the first round. The hard Brexiteers and DUP will be making the EU's acceptance of the deal a negative and a reason to vote against it.

[williamjm]

8 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

To go back on that point a bit.

I'd reverse the argument, what else are they supposed to campaign on? That's a serious question.

I mean, they can hardly go out campaign on, Vote for us, and within a forthnight we will deliver the deal, we couldn't get in the past 2 years.  (well they can try, but I'll leave it for you to judge how credible that is).

That leaves campaigning for remain, also not very plausible, esp. since this entire excercise in national diminishment was aimed to get conservative voters back from UKIP.

They can also campaign on a no-deal Brexit. Which no sane person would ever sign up to. Ok, this entire enterprise was never about sanity, but that's pushing it.

If you rule those 3 options more or less out, you end up with May's deal, no matter how toxic, but that's really the only way left to go.

I think you have a higher opinion of the sanity or strategic thinking of some of the ERG Tories than I do. Some of them will probably reluctantly come around and back May's deal for the reasons you describe (the collapse of the attempt to unseat May could be a sign some of them aren't all that committed to the cause), but I suspect some will be more stubborn. It's the same "logic" that lead to the likes of Raab and McVey resigning from cabinet despite them having no plausible alternative plan.

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

This could shatter the Conservative Party altogether, snapping their spine, splitting the party and making any successor party unelectable for generations to come.

I see no downside in this.

Ironically, the fear of this happening could be the one thing that might keep them in line. If they realise that if they rebel too much then they could be handing the keys to number 10 to Jeremy Corbyn, which is probably their worst-case scenario. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

3 hours ago, williamjm said:

I think you have a higher opinion of the sanity or strategic thinking of some of the ERG Tories than I do. Some of them will probably reluctantly come around and back May's deal for the reasons you describe (the collapse of the attempt to unseat May could be a sign some of them aren't all that committed to the cause), but I suspect some will be more stubborn. It's the same "logic" that lead to the likes of Raab and McVey resigning from cabinet despite them having no plausible alternative plan.

Maybe, but those resignations is for more about positioning for the post-May era, let's be honest, she will be gone once Brexit is concluded, one way or another. That's also te big story behind those half-arsed, I don't like where the negoitiations are going/went, but I don't want the PM to resign. And putting some distance between them and that toxic deal is part of the whole "Who wants to be a Tory Leader" gig. Yes, the ERG are loony enough for a no-deal crash. But I don't think their fanatic core is as numerous as they'd like to make everybody believe. But for the less crazy Tories, they are in that uncomfortable position, that supporting May's deal is more or less their only more or less credible option (bar another referendum). And you kinda avoided the question, how else are they supposed to positon themselves?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Look who's being helpful as always:

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Donald Trump has delivered a weighty blow to Theresa May’s hopes of steering her Brexit deal through parliament, saying it sounded like a “great deal for the EU” that would stop the UK trading with the US.

Trump was speaking to reporters outside the White House when he was asked about the deal May struck with the EU’s other 27 heads of state and government on Sunday.

“Sounds like a great deal for the EU,” the president said. “I think we have to take a look at, seriously, whether or not the UK is allowed to trade. Because, you know, right now, if you look at the deal, they may not be able to trade with us … I don’t think that the prime minister meant that. And, hopefully, she’ll be able to do something about that.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/26/trump-brexit-deal-theresa-may-great-deal-for-eu

[williamjm]

Apparently, parts of Boris' speech to the DUP in Belfast seems to have gotten a bit weird, even by his standards:

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We have more Nobel prizes from one Cambridge college than from Russia and china combined. By far the most dynamic creative culture and media industries. Which was the biggest grossing movie last year? Star Wars and where does George Lucas propose to make a follow up about Obi-Wan Kenobi? Northern Ireland.

But what is the name of the weapon wielded by Obi-Wan. The glowing throbbing rod with its enigmatic hum. A light sabre – and where did they make the first light sabre?

Yes, it was in my own constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

I'm beginning to think Boris might be the only person who thought there wasn't enough discussion of trade policies in The Phantom Menace.

I'm also thinking of starting a petition to ban Boris from ever using the phrase 'glowing throbbing rod' again.

[Nevarfeather]

Wow, did Boris really say that!
Everytime another little thing is revealed about him and his thinking (or lack of it) the more he seems like a dangerous psychopath
I enjoyed the ‘Inside the Foreign Office’ programme on BBC this week. Watching Boris bumble and bluster and bull his way through sensitive diplomatic missions was both hilarious and terrifying.
Watching his aides and advisors compose their features as Boris made error after error really made me feel for them. Especially Caroline, goodness that woman deserved a medal for putting up with Boris and not smacking him like a child. How low such men have brought the UK. Such a tragedy.

[BigFatCoward]

Well that's reassuring. Either quite a bit worse off or royaly fucked. 

[Which Tyler]

So a No Deal Brexit will cost this country £240B a year - let's spend that on the NHS instead.
May's deal will cost a "mere" £100Bn a year.

For comparison, the NHS costs £125B a year
Our EU contribution was £8.6B

Jebus, she really just said (PMQs) that finding out the current will of the people is to ignore the will of the people.
Corbyn really is terrible at holding her to account on this (yes, I know, but this is by far the biggest political issue ofmour time).

She followed that up by claiming that the analysis doesn't show that we'll be poorer, despite the analysis saying the precise opposite.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

57 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

She followed that up by claiming that the analysis doesn't show that we'll be poorer, despite the analysis saying the precise opposite.

Wealth is more a feeling. I mean if Trump feels/believes he is a bilionaire and business genius, so the UK can feel richer as a result of Brexit.

 

Either way, I must give her some credit for another political move however. Issuing that challenge to Corbyn for a TV debate on Brexit was really brilliant. As that would force to clarify actually take a position on Brexit. This isn't gonna end well for him. So of course he wants this debate to be on a broader level than just Brexit, oh, and also no Remainers must apply.

For the record, dear BBC bosses, if you read this. Don't you freaking dare to postpone the Doctor Who series finale for those two clowns agreeing with each other on Brexit.

 

[mormont]

2 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

She followed that up by claiming that the analysis doesn't show that we'll be poorer, despite the analysis saying the precise opposite.

I mean, we'll be poor in cash terms, yes, but rich in the things that money just can't buy: like nobody on the train speaking Polish, or the ability to smugly demand to know 'who won the bloody war?'

And we'll all have blue passports! 

[Derfel Cadarn]

4 minutes ago, mormont said:

I mean, we'll be poor in cash terms, yes, but rich in the things that money just can't buy: like nobody on the train speaking Polish, or the ability to smugly demand to know 'who won the bloody war?'

And we'll all have blue passports! 

Blue passports made in France, unlike the unpatriotic red EU passports currently made in the UK.

[Which Tyler]

3 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Wealth is more a feeling. I mean if Trump feels/believes he is a bilionaire and business genius, so the UK can feel richer as a result of Brexit.

 

Either way, I must give her some credit for another political move however. Issuing that challenge to Corbyn for a TV debate on Brexit was really brilliant. As that would force to clarify actually take a position on Brexit. This isn't gonna end well for him. So of course he wants this debate to be on a broader level than just Brexit, oh, and also no Remainers must apply.

For the record, dear BBC bosses, if you read this. Don't you freaking dare to postpone the Doctor Who series finale for those two clowns agreeing with each other on Brexit.

 

Much as I dislike Corbyn; he could walk on set with no notes, and no prep time; and wipe the floor with May, even she had 6 weeks prep and 3 advisors on hand.

 

Of course, he may also sound the death knell for his party whilst he's at it; but he'd win the "debate" comfortably.

[williamjm]

9 hours ago, Nevarfeather said:

Wow, did Boris really say that!

It was definitely one of those stories where I was initially slightly unsure when it was from a satirical news site, but I think some quotes as just too weird to make up.

Everytime another little thing is revealed about him and his thinking (or lack of it) the more he seems like a dangerous psychopath

I enjoyed the ‘Inside the Foreign Office’ programme on BBC this week. Watching Boris bumble and bluster and bull his way through sensitive diplomatic missions was both hilarious and terrifying.
Watching his aides and advisors compose their features as Boris made error after error really made me feel for them. Especially Caroline, goodness that woman deserved a medal for putting up with Boris and not smacking him like a child. How low such men have brought the UK. Such a tragedy

He does seem to become ever more Trump-like as time goes on.

6 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Either way, I must give her some credit for another political move however. Issuing that challenge to Corbyn for a TV debate on Brexit was really brilliant. As that would force to clarify actually take a position on Brexit. This isn't gonna end well for him. So of course he wants this debate to be on a broader level than just Brexit, oh, and also no Remainers must apply.

In some ways it might benefit May to let Corbyn talk at length about his economic policies, since she could remind her party about what could happen if they brought her down and let Corbyn become PM. Said policies will often be popular with the country as a whole, but Tory MPs aren't going to like them.

[The Anti-Targ]

So any Brexit will mean Britain will be poorer, but by some sort to measure freer. The harder the exit the poorer, but freer Britain will be.

Was that the bill of goods upon which the Brexit YES campaign fought? I recall (though memory may be faulty) that there were at least unspecified /  vague assurances of economic benefits as well as freer freedom.

[The guy from the Vale]

I'd argue that the Brexit deal on the table leaves the UK both poorer and less free, while a hard Breit will make the country far poorer than that with the only uside of maybe giving some additional freedom (and considering the UK needs allies and is relatively isolated at this point, I rather fear the result will rather be less freedom rather than more)

[mormont]

5 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

So any Brexit will mean Britain will be poorer, but by some sort to measure freer. The harder the exit the poorer, but freer Britain will be.

Was that the bill of goods upon which the Brexit YES campaign fought? I recall (though memory may be faulty) that there were at least unspecified /  vague assurances of economic benefits as well as freer freedom.

There were, and still are, emphatic, repeated, and utterly evidence-free assertions from Brexiteers that Brexit will lead to incalculable economic benefits. From not having to pay to the EU (for stuff we get back) to the incredible trade deals that China and other countries are just begging to give us (although they seem curiously not to be rushing to the table). 

We'll be freer, in the way that I would be freer if I quit my job tomorrow. I could lie in bed all day but with no money there'd be little I could actually do with all that freedom. 

[Heartofice]

1 hour ago, The guy from the Vale said:

I'd argue that the Brexit deal on the table leaves the UK both poorer and less free, while a hard Breit will make the country far poorer than that with the only uside of maybe giving some additional freedom (and considering the UK needs allies and is relatively isolated at this point, I rather fear the result will rather be less freedom rather than more)

The idea that any country can be truly independent and free is probably outdated these days. All countries have to adapt and share sovereignty and give and take when doing deals with each other.

That concept is lost of most Brexiteers. However, that isn't to say that the EU doesn't over-stretch, and there is a legitimate fear of ever close union creating a European superstate (possibly the only real solution to the Euro crisis a number of economists have concluded)

I'd say it's definitely possible that the UK could end up being better off outside the EU, but the time frame for that to happen is so large as to not be worth thinking about, I mean it could take years.. decades to really see the benefits. Even then this is only a potential benefit, by being inside the EU you know what you are getting, good and bad.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

16 hours ago, williamjm said:

In some ways it might benefit May to let Corbyn talk at length about his economic policies, since she could remind her party about what could happen if they brought her down and let Corbyn become PM. Said policies will often be popular with the country as a whole, but Tory MPs aren't going to like them.

 

Talking about his economic policies, or his broader ideas for the future, that would indeed help him. However, if the  discussion was restricted to Brexit, that would be outright disastrous for him.

Of course, when he wants to slip his ideas in in relations to Brexit, May can call him out on some fantasies, like state aid (not gonna happen, level playing field rules), his a customs union in contrast to the customs union nonsense (will be rejected for the very same reasons her chequers nonsense was and will be shot down).

Of course he can try to continue to sell his red unicorns during that debate, but I don't think it will help him all that much. But then again, the British public at large still seems to like Boris for whatever reason.

[The Anti-Targ]

11 hours ago, Heartofice said:

The idea that any country can be truly independent and free is probably outdated these days. All countries have to adapt and share sovereignty and give and take when doing deals with each other.

That concept is lost of most Brexiteers. However, that isn't to say that the EU doesn't over-stretch, and there is a legitimate fear of ever close union creating a European superstate (possibly the only real solution to the Euro crisis a number of economists have concluded)

I'd say it's definitely possible that the UK could end up being better off outside the EU, but the time frame for that to happen is so large as to not be worth thinking about, I mean it could take years.. decades to really see the benefits. Even then this is only a potential benefit, by being inside the EU you know what you are getting, good and bad.

It's not exactly a great example right now, but the USA is basically that, a superstate. I guess the overall course of US history suggests that on balance the states that form this superstate are better off in both economy and freedom for having been in it. And the Southern slaves certainly ended up being better off for having their slave owners be part of a super state which deemed slavery to be illegal sooner than what would have been the case if each of those slave owning states was an independent, sovereign nation.

A big cultural difference is that pretty early on in the piece the vast majority of US citizens' self identity was "American". Of course it helped that there was an external enemy (the British) that could be used to create that nationalistic cohesion. Hardly anyone in Europe calls them selves European. Almost everyone is still French, Greman, Polish as their primary national identifier. Part of the reason there's a Brexit is because the view that Polish/Spanish/Portuguese workers were coming to Britain to steal jobs. No one in the USA complains about people from X state coming to steal jobs in Y state, or at least they don't complain openly like it's a virtuous thing to be opposed to people from different states being able to freely migrate for purely economic reasons. So there isn't a strong supra-national self-identity around which a superstate can culturally coalesce.

[Nevarfeather]

On 11/29/2018 at 9:40 AM, Heartofice said:

The idea that any country can be truly independent and free is probably outdated these days. All countries have to adapt and share sovereignty and give and take when doing deals with each other.

That concept is lost of most Brexiteers. However, that isn't to say that the EU doesn't over-stretch, and there is a legitimate fear of ever close union creating a European superstate (possibly the only real solution to the Euro crisis a number of economists have concluded)

I'd say it's definitely possible that the UK could end up being better off outside the EU, but the time frame for that to happen is so large as to not be worth thinking about, I mean it could take years.. decades to really see the benefits. Even then this is only a potential benefit, by being inside the EU you know what you are getting, good and bad.

that is key for me, I work in planning for big infrastructure projects, things like nuclear power plants and tidal lagoons. 

They take decades to get through the planning system, appeals, inquiries, tendering, construction, testing and finallly operation. Brexit benefits are like that for me. To prepare properly you'd need, say 30 years. To plan for, fund, build, set up and staff all the replacement regulatory bodies, the new customs infrastructures, the magical 'tech solution' for the Northern Irish border...etc. In that time you also need to be re-negotiating all the trade deals you can't be part of as an EU member anymore which would also take about 30 years if each one takes average 5 years to renegotiate (optimistic!).

So if your economy can weather 30 years of bullsh*tting around, your agriculture, business, manufacturing and services industries don't mind operating in an uncertain ever changing rules environment during that time -  then sure - go for it.
If not. Sit the hell down, shut up and get real.