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UK Politics: Austerity has ended - More cuts to come.


Pebble thats Stubby

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So she genuinely thinks the deal is palatable enough to ever pass a vote? That's what I find the most surprising. I assumed she must know it was awful and had some future plan up her sleeve.. nope of course I was giving her too much credit. Not that I should be surprised by that, she has been entirely awful every step of the way.

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The plan to get the deal passed was always to hustle MPs into it: leave the vote to the last minute and then say 'it's this or nothing'. That, plus, as noted, hope like hell for a slice of luck. 

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Would this delay of the vote - so that she can change... nothing at all, as it's already been negotiated and passed by the other party... could this open her up for another "contempt of parliament" vote?
How many of those can she possibly lose before having to resign or face a vote of no confidence?
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I really think we might see another referendum after today, what a joke, May really needs to be replaced as leader, the trouble is by who, there are no sensible alternatives on either the Tory or Labour front benches.

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27 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:
Would this delay of the vote - so that she can change... nothing at all, as it's already been negotiated and passed by the other party... could this open her up for another "contempt of parliament" vote?
How many of those can she possibly lose before having to resign or face a vote of no confidence?

The EU clearly have said fuck this. They've called an emergency meeting on Thursday to clarify their position, which is going to be that the current deal is the only one on the table and all they will give is additional reassurances that the backstop "probably" won't be used.

This is May having finally, irrevocably run out of room to manoeuvre and is trying to kick it six weeks down the road to try to buy some more time so she can try to frame the deal as pass it or crash out without a deal.

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Just now, Werthead said:

This is May having finally, irrevocably run out of room to manoeuvre and is trying to kick it six weeks down the road to try to buy some more time so she can try to frame the deal as pass it or crash out without a deal.

Do you think she has that long before she gets ousted?

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Has she ever seen a can she hasn't kicked down the road? it may be a 10l can of gloss paint - but kick it down the road she will; even at the cost of several broken metatarsals.

In other news; and news that I'm sure will shock absolutely nobody. The markets don't seem too fond of this latest demonstration of Strong and Stable Leadership; and the pound has dropped further: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46510636

2 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Do you think she has that long before she gets ousted?

Yup - for as long as she fails to comit to anything; it's far too toxic for anyone else to want to handle - except Corbyn anyway.

She's pissing away the country for the sake of another 6 weeks with her grubby mittens on the leavers of power - leavers that she can't use anyway!

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Just now, Which Tyler said:

She's pissing away the country for the sake of another 6 weeks with her grubby mittens on the leavers of power - leavers that she can't use anyway!

I didn't have the ERG clown car in mind to deliver the final letters. I think this might piss off the wing of party around Soubry enough to force their hand.

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16 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I guess she wants one more Christmas at No. 10.

If there is another referendum, how do you think it will go? WIll it be the same question as last time? How confident are you of the result?

Only a fool would be confident of the result.

However, I think, if the question was:

May's deal vs Remain then Remain would be the favourite. However, the downside is that the referendum would be seen as illegitimate by perhaps a majority of Leave voters who might boycott it. 

If the question was:

Remain vs no-deal it is much harder to call, although Remain might still pip it. This would be a very nasty high stakes referendum though and Remainers would have a lot to lose, they'd be giving up the softer landing of the May deal to play roulette with Johnson, Mogg and Farage. 

If we went for some kind of two part question, such as first round is Remain vs Leave and second is Deal vs no-deal contingent on Leave winning round one then no-deal is unlikely to win, but May's deal might be viable vs Remain.

I think whatever happens this is not over, the first referendum has caused the split between anti-EU and pro-EU people to metastasize and the UK is heading for very turbulent waters domestically. 

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This is an absolute shitshow now.

Her plan all along seems to have been to try and scare everyone into going for her crappy negotiated deal, hoping MPS would not be willing to be seem as the ones putting us towards a no deal Brexit. Yesterday it looked like it was going to be rejected anyway as most people saw it as bad (remainers hate any leave deal, leavers think its not what they voted for).
Then the EUC says we can just call it off anyway which pretty much sealed the fate of her pile of shite agreement and it was definitely not going to pass.

So she decides to pick up all the toys and run off home, stopping anyone from having a say. Just because she will loose now she thinks she can just pull the rug out and go back to the usual "will of the people" bullshit she's been peddling for months.

I don't know what the hell is wrong with this country but the sooner we get this bunch of clowns out of power the better. Even the opposition is useless thanks to Jeremy "i have no spine" Corbyn being unwilling to put aside his views on Brexit for one second to actually try and act like oposition and stop this madness.

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2 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Do you think she has that long before she gets ousted?

No. It sounds like MPs may be willing to give her until Christmas, but no longer than that, certainly not her date of 21 January which is ridiculous (2 months before B-day).

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I don’t think my stomach could handle a second referendum. I’d love to think we’d learnt something and moved on since 2016, but have we? I suspect Leave would still double down on the same basic talking points, Remain would still fail to come with a positive argument for remaining, Boris would convince everyone he could do better at the negotiating table. 

Maybe we’re better out, maybe we’re better in, but it’s starting to look like we just can’t leave. The Leave camp is too fractured to unite behind any one vision so it just can’t happen.

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Strong part of the PM's speech today:

"Many of the most controversial aspects of this deal, including the backstop, are simply inescapable facts of having a negotiated Brexit. Those Members who continue to disagree need to shoulder the responsibility of advocating an alternative solution that can be delivered, and do so without ducking its implications. So if you want a second referendum to overturn the result of the first, be honest that this risks dividing the country again, when as a House we should be striving to bring it back together. If you want to remain part of the single market and the customs union, be open that this would require free movement, rule taking across the economy and ongoing financial contributions—none of which are in my view compatible with the result of the referendum. If you want to leave without a deal, be up front that in the short term, this would cause significant economic damage to parts of our country who can least afford to bear the burden. I do not believe that any of those courses of action command a majority in this House. But notwithstanding that fact, for as long as we fail to agree a deal, the risk of an accidental no deal increases. So the Government will step up their work in preparation for that potential outcome, and the Cabinet will hold further discussions on it this week."

 

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It really seems more and more by the day that you guys are screwed. I have not seen a single report in weeks that is both optimistic and realistic at the same time. The optimists are living in a fantasy land that does not exist while the realists are deeply pessimistic about the country's short term future. 

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