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UK Politics: Austerity has ended - More cuts to come.

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Just now, The BlackBear said:

But apparently Graham Brady has gone home, so we won't know until Monday.

They can always e-mail him.

This seems like a pretty inept coup.

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2 minutes ago, SeanF said:

They can always e-mail him.

This seems like a pretty inept coup.

This is the Conservative party, they probably need to be written on Vellum.

And as much as I dislike JRM, he was technically right about this not being a coup.

Speculation: if she can't get a Brexiteer to sign up as Brexit Sec (I can;t see many backing this deal,) she'll have to appoint a Remainer, and that'll really piss them off.

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3 hours ago, SeanF said:

TBH, it's not a bad deal.  It would certainly be voted down now by the Commons, but when they're staring down the barrel of a gun?  Who knows?

Like I said above somewhere, I'd take that deal, as it more or less contains regulatory alignment, which prevents the UK from drifting too far away from the EU (remainers perspective), and makes rejoining fully easier down the road. So from that angle, it's not a horrible deal May has come home with. And it's atm rather the case, that some EU members are not entirely happy with it either (namely Spain with regards to Gibraltar, and the fishery nations). None of them are likely to derail the deal though. However, from the UK's perspective it's not a good deal. Compared with EU membership it's now having to adopt EU regulations, wtihout having a say in it. So that is indeed less appealing than membership and tough to sell on a political level (remember this whole taking back control BS that got Brexiteers harder than those [red white and] blue pills). And the UK will be stuck in that position for the foreseeable future (as in, GL finding a solution to the Irish Border). And the UK will be on the hook to pay into the budget for their SM access.  There's no way to sugar coat this, that is not in line with the nonsense Leavers promised. Oh, and no new trade deals for the UK, and ofc the ECJ will be playing a role. That puts pretty much all of the Lancaster nonsense to rest.

Now, about the minus side for the remainers. As I mentioned no new FTA to be negotiated by the UK, but that's not the kicker. The real kicker comes now, while the EU will continue to strike FTA with other nations likesay China (unlikely to be done anytime soon, but for the sake of the argument), what would that mean for the UK, it has to open it's markets to Chinese goods, but not vice versa - I'd argue the same goes for already existing FTA the EU has (Art 50 paragraph 3 All treaties shall cease to apply). If the UK wants to export to China in our example like the rest of the EU, they would need to negotiate that seperately. This is a competitive disadvante, when products made in the UK can get into the Chinese market tax free, while products made in France or Germany can. Agricultural goods need to go thru a lot bureaucratic hoops (no longer part of the common EU policy) and inudstrial goods will face the same problem of sort, UK can no longer self certify its goods for the EU market, as its not EU member. Don't underestimate this, this is a bad for realz. Courtesy to Ian Dunt, where I got this from.

4 hours ago, SeanF said:

It all depends how many Leave MPs are prepared to grudgingly accept as better than Remain, and how many Remain MPs are willing to see it as better than crashing out without a deal.

No, I think this will more depend on how many Labour MPs are petrified enough (and rightly so) of a no-deal shit Tsunami and are not willing to play chicken in order to get Corbyn is GE before the UK crashes out.

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It should be noted that May did say that there are now three options: Chequers, No Deal or No Brexit. Some have taken that as a hint that she might be willing to consider cancelling or delaying Article 50, or even invoking a second referendum if all other options fail (since No Deal also has to get through Parliament - unless we just run out of time - and very few will vote for that). The general feeling seems to be that the "No Brexit" idea was pretty toothless though.

Using the handy vote tabulator linked earlied, I tried to see what it would take to get a second referendum through.

The Brexit Ultras (68), DUP (10) and Veteran Labour Brexiters (6) would vote against it even if the alternative was Britain catching fire and sinking into the sea.

The Wavering Brexiters (65), Brexit Delivery Group (150), Tricky Labour Leave Constituencies (13) and Norway for Now (8) are all pro-Brexit but not Brexit at any cost, and may break in favour of a referendum (particularly Tricky Labour). Obviously, if May decides to go down this road then most of the Delivery Group and some of the Waverers would follow.

Tories for a People's Vote (6), Nervous Tory Remainers (21), Labour for a People's Vote (60), the Lib Dems (12), Greens (1), Plaid Cymru (4) and SNP (35) would vote strongly for a second referendum right now. 

So a key group is the Labour Frontbench (180), most of whom would back a second referendum ahead of No Deal if a general election was off the table.

So the numbers in Parliament are there for a second referendum, but there would have to be a firm rejection of the deal and the reduction of the options to Remain or No Deal, which is also important for democratic reasons (it's a different choice to 2016) and to carry the Labour front benchers and the Tory prefer-Brexit-but-not-at-the-cost-of-No-Deal group.

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Yay Amber Rudd is back.    She's not been out for that long.  May is finding it really hard to find people to fill her cabinet.

 

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1 hour ago, Pebble said:

Yay Amber Rudd is back.    She's not been out for that long.  May is finding it really hard to find people to fill her cabinet.

 

The current status of talent in the Conservative Party means they've gone right through the bottom of the barrel and are now scraping lichen off rocks 200 feet below the barrel.

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I see a new group of old faces are trying to renegotiate an acceptable Brexit deal... with themselves, as opposed to Parliament, or the EU...

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CANCEL BREXIT IMMEDIATELY. This cannot stand.

 

Quote

 

I see a new group of old faces are trying to renegotiate an acceptable Brexit deal... with themselves, as opposed to Parliament, or the EU...

 

 

Indeed. You have stumbled across the primary reason we're even in this mess, in that this was never really about sovereignty, or people's rights, or immigration, this was always primarily about trying to handle the egotism and self-destructive tendencies of the Conservative Party.

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wow,  it almost reads like Gove is our the only thing potentially saving us from utter disaster and complete chaos.  We are so screwed.

 

*adds Mars bars to brexit stockplie*

 

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Any fellow fans of the writings of Marina Hyde?

This one is an absolute beaut

Quote

I cannot self-terminate,” Arnold Schwarzenegger’s T-800 says to Sarah Connor at the end of Terminator 2: Judgment Day. “You must lower me into the steel.” The same appears to be true of Theresa May. No matter how judgmental all this week’s judgment days seem to be for the prime minister, the unit is incapable of overriding its programming. So who’s going to press the button, staring mournfully into its eyes as the molten metal claims it, because this is the only way it can end?

There's a couple of GoT references in the article too.

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3 hours ago, Pebble said:

*adds Mars bars to brexit stockplie*

Too sweet for my liking, I am more on the Snickers side of things.

Maybe you should add that to a wishing list for the secret santa stuff though. Anybody who was drawn a Briton: Send FOOD!

But damn things must be dire, when the squinting toilette brush Gove is starting to look like a proper candidate for PM.

I wonder if Brexiters would dismiss one of hteir own as project fear, too - if he were to come forward in public what a no-deal WTO exit would actually look like.

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3 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/smooth-brexit-could-cost-10bn-extra

Does anyone know why it would cost £10bn to delay Brexit? Is that based on anything or is it just a bit of blackmail money?

Simply put. Longer transition, means longer enjoying the full benefits. You get what you pay for, no blackmail just basic common sense. Very much simplified.

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Andrew Marr losing his rag this morning at the merest hint that his journalistic integrity is in question was deeply comical, since it suggest that he had any left to start with. The Banks fiasco was really the last straw.

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15 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Andrew Marr losing his rag this morning at the merest hint that his journalistic integrity is in question was deeply comical, since it suggest that he had any left to start with. The Banks fiasco was really the last straw.

I didn't see the whole show, but his response seemed way over the top from the clips I've seen.

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Well ...

Three outcomes to this 1) May deal, 2) No deal, 3) 2nd referendum. I have to say, all of them seem unlikely but one has to happen. If I had to come down one way or the other, in terms of predictions, I think 1) will happen. Like Boycott, Theresa will get the runs in in the end.

I also don't think the withdrawal deal is that terrible, she hasn't done a bad job with the hand she was dealt. The ERG's opposition is only raising the (pretty slender) chances of a second referendum and a remain vote. I've always been pretty torn on the Brexit question, strongly sympathising with some Leaver concerns but not convinced quitting the EU was the best response. 

Labour Remainers must be getting very concerned with the leadership right now. If Corbyn and McDonnell think they can renegotiate following a GE they are deluded. The EU might still go along with a second vote, or a cancellation of Brexit, but not a new exit treaty. Corbyn's interview today was shambolic and confused. Surprised there isn't more anger felt towards him on this board. 

Edited by Chaircat Meow

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40 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Three outcomes to this 1) May deal, 2) No deal, 3) 2nd referendum. I have to say, all of them seem unlikely but one has to happen. If I had to come down one way or the other, in terms of predictions, I think 1) will happen. Like Boycott, Theresa will get the runs in in the end.

That would be my pick, too. However I fail to see the where she would get the votes for that now. The DUP is never in a milion milion years gonna sign up to that. Neither is a not so insignificant part of her own party. From the opposition parties, well, nobody wants to get anything near that thing, just go get beaten with the "you sold out Britain" stick during the next GE.

43 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Labour Remainers must be getting very concerned with the leadership right now. If Corbyn and McDonnell think they can renegotiate following a GE they are deluded. The EU might still go along with a second vote, or a cancellation of Brexit, but not a new exit treaty. Corbyn's interview today was shambolic and confused. Surprised there isn't more anger felt towards him on this board. 

I think they (the Labour Remainers) are, and they have been for a while. And that's the very reason Labour is not leading in the polls, but is rather more or less on par with that clown car of a UK goverment. Again, yes, they (in htis case Corbyn and McDonnel being deluded) are. however, may I point you to Gove, Davis, Raab and all those other Torie clowns, who want to force May to go back to negotiation table to get a better deal? The same shit, different a... That goes back to the point, as in why nobody wants to touch May'S deal in parliament with a stick. Neither of the big parties has the spine to tell the electorate, there's no happy ending to this, and this is as good a deal as it gets (with the exception of Soubry). Yes, that is also surprising to me. But again, he can bluster all he wants from the opposition benches, the main act in town is the comedy drama known as the Torie goverment. So his nonsense (in contrast to the Tories') has the advantage, that it does not have to clash with an objective reality.

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