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UK Politics: Austerity has ended - More cuts to come.

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1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

Please don't invoke Trump - that's the very last thing we need

On that note, the plus side of getting sacked is that May won’t have to be berated by Trump on the phone anymore, though rest assured he will just mock her publicly.  

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1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Can't Parliament force another referendum?  Isn't that relatively likely, even if whoever takes over after May refuses to call one?  I would think that the majority of Parliament would be very concerned about driving off the cliff of hard Brexit when they are undoubtedly going to be blamed for the fallout.

They could, but Labour's current policy is that they would prefer a general election once Parliament votes down the withdrawal agreement, and will only support a second referendum if that doesn't happen.

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1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Can't Parliament force another referendum?  

Parliament can do whatever it wants, and I’m sure the EU would bite their hands off if offered the prospect of another referendum, but since we’re stuck with May and Corbyn there’s no leadership to get anything done.

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1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Can't Parliament force another referendum?  Isn't that relatively likely, even if whoever takes over after May refuses to call one?  I would think that the majority of Parliament would be very concerned about driving off the cliff of hard Brexit when they are undoubtedly going to be blamed for the fallout.


TBH we've ignored the wise advice of the immortal Kirk Lazarus and gone full regard now.

As of 7.30 this morning, absolutely nobody knows WTF happens next. Your magic 8 ball is probably more accurate now then any political commentator - though Theresa's seems to have been stuck on "ask again later" for the last 18 months, so don't use hers.

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Signed in to my morning news reviews and saw shit looks to be going cray cray over on ya'lls side of the pond.

My sympathies of course. Do I understand correctly that what most sober assessments predicted in this very thread came to pass? An untenable deal proposed by May causing mass resignations and realization that no clean deal seems to be possible?

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Someone wrote something yesterday that I think I overlooked. Can May just say bleep all this and cancel Brexit? And if so and she’s deposed, could her successor undo that or would you have to have another referendum to reinstate Brexit?

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May is dammed either way tbh.

The deal she got is terrible if you're a remain voter (or anyone who woke up in the last 2yrs despite voting contrary to that) because it's driving onward into the car crash despite clear warning signs the other passengers don't want to get hideously maimed or killed. Remain people are just horrified that despite the country seeming to come to its senses slightly in recent weeks, our idiot leader still blindly charges onward.

And if you're a leave voter than this deal is a shoddy damp squib of a deal and not what you voted for so again you'l be pissed at May.

So tbh she cannot win this situation now. Push through and she'll loose any election anyway because people will either A) hate the Conservative party for pushing us down this path or b) hate the current Conservatives for not be hard enough and delivering on a proper Brexit.

I'm actually surprised she survived the day tbh...

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OK, people not from the UK keep asking procedural constitutional questions and so it's time for an occasional reminder: notwithstanding remarks you may have read earlier, the UK doesn't have a written constitution and effectively doesn't really have much of a constitution at all. So the answer to most of these questions is 'who knows?'.

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So is there such a thing as a deal that could conceivably have been agreed with the EU that would’ve been amenable to MP’s, to the extent that May wouldn’t face a vote of no confidence? Does anyone believe that actually exists?

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13 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

So is there such a thing as a deal that could conceivably have been agreed with the EU that would’ve been amenable to MP’s, to the extent that May wouldn’t face a vote of no confidence? Does anyone believe that actually exists?

Never a realistic possibility.

It is just about possible that if she'd had a bullet-proof majority (probably 200+) she might have found a way to grant NIreland a special status with a border at the Irish sea - but such a majority would be pretty much unprecedented in modern British history. As it is, she ended up with a negative majority. I don't think anyone this side of the Great Depression / WWII would have had the power (or the will) to force it through

Edited by Which Tyler

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3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Someone wrote something yesterday that I think I overlooked. Can May just say bleep all this and cancel Brexit? And if so and she’s deposed, could her successor undo that or would you have to have another referendum to reinstate Brexit?

As Mormont says, there may not be an official answer to this but I seem to remember that invoking Article 50 required a Parliamentary vote, so it would make sense that revoking it should also require a Parliamentary vote. I think the EU also has to agree to it as well.

As far as I know there aren't any circumstances in which a referendum is required to change anything in the UK (Cameron's EU referendum was non-binding), although it would be easier for politicians to justify reversing the Brexit decision if there was another referendum.

25 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

So is there such a thing as a deal that could conceivably have been agreed with the EU that would’ve been amenable to MP’s, to the extent that May wouldn’t face a vote of no confidence? Does anyone believe that actually exists?

I'm not sure that it would have been possible as long as May was insisting on ending freedom of movement. It's possible a Norway-style deal involving staying in the single market might have been able to get a Parliamentary majority but that would never be acceptable to the majority of the Tory party.

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37 minutes ago, williamjm said:

I'm not sure that it would have been possible as long as May was insisting on ending freedom of movement. It's possible a Norway-style deal involving staying in the single market might have been able to get a Parliamentary majority but that would never be acceptable to the majority of the Tory party.

Good point, I'd managed to forget that ending freedom of movement was a self-inflicted (and only remaining) red-line, rather than an actual one.

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1 hour ago, williamjm said:

As Mormont says, there may not be an official answer to this but I seem to remember that invoking Article 50 required a Parliamentary vote, so it would make sense that revoking it should also require a Parliamentary vote. I think the EU also has to agree to it as well.

Yeah the Supreme court ruled that it needed a vote, so you'd think that would apply in reverse. I think the legal view is that Article 50 is legislation that can be revoked, especially given the EU would almost certainly play ball.

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1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

Good point, I'd managed to forget that ending freedom of movement was a self-inflicted (and only remaining) red-line, rather than an actual one.

The Guardian has a handy page where you can experiment with how different groups in Parliament could combine in a Brexit vote. It does illustrate how big a chasm May has to cross to get her plan approved. If I change the premise and try to work out who might be willing to go for something like a second referendum or staying in the single market then it's possible to get to within 10 of a majority by adding together Labour (minus their diehard Brexiters), Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Tory remainers. To actually get over the line might require persuading a few of the moderate Tories as well.

I looks like it's going to be challenging to get any sort of an agreement from this Parliament. Even another election wouldn't necessarily help since it's unclear whether it would change the balance of power significantly.

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It feels like the UK on this issue is hitting levels of polarisation similar to the US - that the split is sufficiently close and the opinions are held so strongly that neither can get a decisive victory nor compromise. But its not a broad split, just extremely divided over whether you should shoot yourself in the dick or not.

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Just saw the clip of the sign language interpreter on BBC during the clip on this Brexit shenanigans. Priceless!

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Have I got this process right (specifically for the Tories)?

JRM needs 48 letters expressing no confidence to force a vote in May.

IF he gets that, then he needs 150 votes to remove her - and that's just a vote for May or No May.

IF she loses, then she can't stand, and they need a volunteer to actually put their head above the parapet.

 

If I've got that right, I would expect him to get the 48 required; but not the 150 - which makes May safe from challenge for 12 months.

However, if she loses (or calls it quits) in the first round; I would love it if essentially nobody puts their hands up to take the top job (unlikely whilst BoJo and Gove still exist, but hey). What would happen then? presumably Parliament has fallen apart and either Corbyn is asked to form a minority government, or a general election is forced - without a Tory leader...

TBH, if nobody puts their hand up, I can see either Ken Clarke "taking one for the team" and stepping into the leadership role as the only candidate - revoking Art 50 and retiring. I can also see Johnson stepping up as the only candidate; crashing out with no deal; affirming his place in the history books, and brazening it out.

Edited by Which Tyler

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23 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I don't think she is hellbent on doing it, more like she has no other choice (if you take another referendum off the table).

She (or anybody else for that matter) is not going to get anything better out of the Withdrawal Agreement (WA). The WA has to pass parliament. Thus she had to put it forward. There's just no way around it.

I mean Mogg and the other knuckleheads can throw a tantrum all they want, about it not being what they promised their voters, because that was undevliverable. That May had pretended for so long (with the Lancaster House speech, and her silly red lines) that those things were anything else than a fantasies, that is her fault. Those fantasies were always going to clash with reality, and you can see that happening now.

I honestly don't think it makes any difference. The problem described above remains the same. This is as good a WA the UK could hope for, plain and simple. If that one gets shot down, it's back to square one in the negotiation process and the clock will inevitably run out. Whether it's PM Gove, Johnson, or May for that matter. May is also not interested in a second referendum. Your only chance for that to happen is for somebody like Soubry winning a Tory Leadership challenge. Which does not seem bloody likely.

I would put that option below Corbyn simply dropping dead. Anyway, you can still hope for some Labour MP or the SNP putting forward a vote on a second referendum and hope that Labour MPs in vast numbers tell Corbyn to f...off.

 

TBH, it's not a bad deal.  It would certainly be voted down now by the Commons, but when they're staring down the barrel of a gun?  Who knows?

It all depends how many Leave MPs are prepared to grudgingly accept as better than Remain, and how many Remain MPs are willing to see it as better than crashing out without a deal.

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54 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Have I got this process right (specifically for the Tories)?

JRM needs 48 letters expressing no confidence to force a vote in May.

IF he gets that, then he needs 150 votes to remove her - and that's just a vote for May or No May.

IF she loses, then she can't stand, and they need a volunteer to actually put their head above the parapet.

 

If I've got that right, I would expect him to get the 48 required; but not the 150 - which makes May safe from challenge for 12 months.

However, if she loses (or calls it quits) in the first round; I would love it if essentially nobody puts their hands up to take the top job (unlikely whilst BoJo and Gove still exist, but hey). What would happen then? presumably Parliament has fallen apart and either Corbyn is asked to form a minority government, or a general election is forced - without a Tory leader...

TBH, if nobody puts their hand up, I can see either Ken Clarke "taking one for the team" and stepping into the leadership role as the only candidate - revoking Art 50 and retiring. I can also see Johnson stepping up as the only candidate; crashing out with no deal; affirming his place in the history books, and brazening it out.

So far, 21 have confirmed that they have sent in letters to Graham Brady, although presumably there are others.

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