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Do you think Doran Martell actually has a master plan?

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No, I don't believe he has a master plan or that he ever did. On the contrary I think the majority of his actions up to a certain point is to keep the reins in Dorne and to keep Dorne out of the war against the efforts of his family. I am more inclined to believe that he says what he says more in an effort to gain compliance. 

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I'm a bit worried about Arianne because I don't have faith in Aegon's legitimacy (or eventual victory). I think she should probably stick to succeeding Doran , and not worry about the 7 kingdoms.

But I think a version of Doran's original plan may work out in spite of everything (thanks to Oberyn). I've become convinced that Daario is Oberyn's (unknown) son... I expect him to survive the battle and leave Meereen with Dany - and I'll be waiting to see his eyes compared to any of the sand snakes' eyes.. Areo tells us (more than once) that the colour doesn't matter , the girls all have Oberyn's eyes.

If anyone's interested in the details, here's my epic..;)

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/133447-daario-naharis-son-of-the-red-viper/

The very short version of it is - The Stormcrows are the sellsword company Oberyn formed - which Daario joined at a certain age and was expected to work his way to the top. I think he was being groomed to lead Viserys' army. 

I think Daario knows who he is, but can't say because Doran doesn't know (or doesn't know if he survives). I suspect some sort of documentation exists, hidden inside the hilt(s) of his weapons, "his girls" (Like Oberyn's girls are all living weapons). This is why he leaves them with Dany, (his beloved) for safekeeping. So I hope Missandei is taking good care of them.

I think he also has Blackfyre blood from his mother ( important female bloodlines again) ,and maybe even a smidge of Lannister.

Edited by bemused
typo

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1 hour ago, bemused said:

The very short version of it is - The Stormcrows are the sellsword company Oberyn formed - which Daario joined at a certain age and was expected to work his way to the top. I think he was being groomed to lead Viserys' army.

Ooooh, I like this. In fact it's the only "Daario's secret" suggestion I've read which doesn't make me either laugh or throw up... I'll have to check out the full thread :thumbsup:

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Oh he has a plan.  Whether it's succeed or not is what we will find out in the next volume.  He is trying to create the first ruling queen in Westeros.  He wants Arrianne on that throne.  Aegon is just his ticket to change the laws and apply Dornish law across the realm.  Which allows for female rule.  

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5 hours ago, Centurion Piso said:

Oh he has a plan.  Whether it's succeed or not is what we will find out in the next volume.  He is trying to create the first ruling queen in Westeros.  He wants Arrianne on that throne.  Aegon is just his ticket to change the laws and apply Dornish law across the realm.  Which allows for female rule.  

So who will rule Dorne if Arianne is queen and Quentyn is toast? Trystane, whose days are numbered? Doran didn’t think things through.

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1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

So who will rule Dorne if Arianne is queen and Quentyn is toast? Trystane, whose days are numbered? Doran didn’t think things through.

Though I know many people would hate it...;)... As per my post above (and if these young characters don't blow their chances) Arianne rules Dorne as it's Princess, Oberyn's son Daario becomes consort of (some sort of Uber- Queen) Dany.

Doran tried to think things through but the god of The Unexpected deprived him of his plotting partner Oberyn too soon.

Edited by bemused

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Doran doesn't have a master plan. He had one plan that ended when Viserys got himself crowned with molten gold. He has some marriage contract between Viserys and Arianne, but doesn't lift a finger to help Viserys out. He just waits around until Viserys has an army. 

Then we have the Dany/Quentyn match. Clearly, Doran and Oberyn found out about Dany's dragons before Oberyn set foot in King's Landing. I would think that the reasonable thing to do would have been to send Oberyn who spent a lot of time in Essos to go to Dany with the proposal and send Quentyn to King's Landing. But that's not what he does. Instead, he sends his newly knighted son, who never left Westeros on this quest with a handful of companions at his back. The heir of the most powerful vassal of House Martell is killed. Who knows how Anders Yronwood will react to that. (The Allyrion/Yronwood marriage is not something that should be disregarded).

Arianne who made one bone-headed move after the other in AFFC has been sent into a war zone. Who knows what she will do.

He told either a whole lie or half a lie about Gerold Dayne. I don't know what consequences that will have. The guy may or may not have hurt Myrcella. What we know for sure is that he did not kill Arys Oakheart.

The person who is in imminent danger is Nymeria, imo. They know about Aegon's landing in the Stormlands. Whether he's a fake or the real deal, Cersei, whom I am assuming will be back in power after Uncle Kev's death, can choose to believe what she wants. Nymeria is his Aegon's blood, she is headed to King's Landing to fill the Dornish seat. 

I think Doran is one hot mess. I think there's something very wrong in the way he is handling all of this and he is expecting that his vengeance against the Lannisters will come from him pulling the strings. I think he has taken the lessons from the Water Gardens a bit too far. 

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2 hours ago, bemused said:

Though I know many people would hate it...;)... As per my post above (and if these young characters don't blow their chances) Arianne rules Dorne as it's Princess, Oberyn's son Daario becomes consort of (some sort of Uber- Queen) Dany.

I caught up on your Daario thread, pity it's now archived - I like the case you made. And would just like to add that maybe Dany's repeated thought that Daario 'is not the stuff of kings' reflects that Dorne rejected the title of 'king' for 'prince' -  a prince is 'not the stuff of kings' ;)

But back on topic - even if Daario is Oberyn's son, would Doran know?

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Doran has plans, but no 'master plan'. No sane person in Westeros has a 'master plan'. Those people good at politics know what they want and work towards getting it, but they adapt their plans and take reality into account. They don't run five steps ahead or think they can manipulate/control everything.

Such people are stupid and/or read too many comics ;-).

The Viserys plan was in the making but depending on Viserys actually coming to Westeros. The Dany plan grew out of that one and was an adaptation to made when the dragons hatched. Without the dragons Doran would have sent no one to Dany.

Doran does want to avenge his sister and her children, and he wants to punish Tywin for his crimes and unmake everything he built, but those things are not his priorities. He wants to keep his people safe. That's why he is the best and most responsible ruler Westeros has at this point. The others are all selfish pricks.

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I believe that Shae was a Dornish Spy but other than that, I think Doran Martell is a Fool.  He banked on Viserys and Dany being his ticket to the Iron throne and revenge against the Lannisters but offered no aid, did nothing to comfort or protect them, even from intermediaries and to make it worse, never spoke to, confided in his true heir, Arianne, a single GD word or anything, no training etc. So, this girl turns practically into the most loose woman in Dorne because it is all she has to gain, in her eyes, any followers, influence etc, all because of her Dad being and idiot and ignoring her. I really dislike Doran for his neglect and general disrespect he had for his daughter, Arianne. 

Edited by A Ghost of Someone

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10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Doran does want to avenge his sister and her children, and he wants to punish Tywin for his crimes and unmake everything he built, but those things are not his priorities. He wants to keep his people safe. That's why he is the best and most responsible ruler Westeros has at this point. The others are all selfish pricks.

Largely true. Whether it’d be Daenerys,Robb, or Eddard, most rulers we see put their personal grievances ahead of the lives that would be lost for the quest for vengeance. Robb was so dead set on his vengeance he would drag down his family(even his beloved brother Jon) with him and continue his lost war that has cost so many lives  out of pure want for revenge.  Doran is really the only one who seems to care that if he goes about getting vengeance, thousands, hell tens of thousands of people would die and not just because it might inconvenience his plans. It’s kind of funny however Doran is despised by his people while his brother and nieces are beloved even though Doran clearly puts more stock in their wellbeing. 

Edited by Varysblackfyre321

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On 10/11/2018 at 7:19 PM, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Doran Martell has a wait-and-see attitude.  He makes up plans based on his opportunities.  He doesn't have reliable people.  He made it a family project and his children are not up to the task.  Oberyn was not up to the task.  He couldn't keep emotion out of it and got his head caved in.  Oberyn was on the way to victory when he got too close and Gregor got him.  Quentyn was getting close to winning the dragons over when one of his guys panicked and attacked the dragons.  That's two gone down.  It doesn't look good for Arrianne.  Alleras-Sarella may be his best operative out in the field.  Three failures and one success.  Al may succeed in destroying the Lannisters.

I agree completely. His family is largely made-up of hot-headed idiots. I honestly found him to be the only mildly interesting thing of the Dornish storyline. The sand snakes and Arriane  to come across as spoiled brats, with flights of fantasy, and no concept of honor yet ready to preach how honor demands revenge or whatever.

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1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Largely true. Whether it’d be Daenerys,Robb, or Eddard, most rulers we see put their personal grievances ahead of the lives that would be lost for the quest for vengeance. Robb was so dead set on his vengeance he would drag down his family(even his beloved brother Jon) with him and continue his lost war that has cost so many lives  out of pure want for revenge.  Doran is really the only one who seems to care that if he goes about getting vengeance, thousands, hell tens of thousands of people would die and not just because it might inconvenience his plans. It’s kind of funny however Doran is despised by his people while his brother and nieces are beloved even though Doran clearly puts more stock in their wellbeing. 

Basically, Doran is the only guy acting like a grown-up when a family member is killed. Everybody else acts like the adolescent teen they are.

Ellaria Sand is even more a grown-up, though. Doran still wants revenge, he is just cautious about it, whereas Ellaria actually can see beyond that desire.

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1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Largely true. Whether it’d be Daenerys,Robb, or Eddard, most rulers we see put their personal grievances ahead of the lives that would be lost for the quest for vengeance. Robb was so dead set on his vengeance he would drag down his family(even his beloved brother Jon) with him and continue his lost war that has cost so many lives  out of pure want for revenge.  Doran is really the only one who seems to care that if he goes about getting vengeance, thousands, hell tens of thousands of people would die and not just because it might inconvenience his plans. It’s kind of funny however Doran is despised by his people while his brother and nieces are beloved even though Doran clearly puts more stock in their wellbeing. 

I wouldn’t say betrothing Arianne to Viserys put stock into her wellbeing. 

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50 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

I wouldn’t say betrothing Arianne to Viserys put stock into her wellbeing. 

Considering he never married her to the man it is clear that his daughter was his priority, not the Beggar King.

Doran Martell intended to use Viserys and later Daenerys Targaryen to his own ends. To topple the Lannister-Baratheon regime and install a Targaryen pretender married to a Martell on the Iron Throne, to restore things the way they should have been with King Rhaegar and Queen Elia.

But he is not as stupid as to ship his daughter to a beggar living in exile - or harboring such a man in secret somewhere in his domains, risking an invasion of Dorne in the process.

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Personally, I doubt it. In some respects, Doran is one of the most emotionally mature rulers we meet, and probably the one I'd want to live under if I were Westerosi. He clearly cares more about the well-being of his people than politics, which has allowed Dorne to go unharmed throughout the War of the Five Kings. 

With Doran, I see him as a man who is heavily conflicted. He does want vengeance--he wouldn't have betrothed his daughter to Viserys and sent Quentyn to Meereen if he didn't. But while his heart may yearn for fire and blood, his head knows that to achieve these goals, he'll have to gamble with Dorne's peace and prosperity. So rather than committing to one or the another, he's in this state of limbo, reaching out to the Targaryens without really doing enough to actually ensure their success. And if I had to take a guess, this indecision is going to be what costs him the most in the long run.

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7 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Personally, I doubt it. In some respects, Doran is one of the most emotionally mature rulers we meet, and probably the one I'd want to live under if I were Westerosi. He clearly cares more about the well-being of his people than politics, which has allowed Dorne to go unharmed throughout the War of the Five Kings. 

With Doran, I see him as a man who is heavily conflicted. He does want vengeance--he wouldn't have betrothed his daughter to Viserys and sent Quentyn to Meereen if he didn't. But while his heart may yearn for fire and blood, his head knows that to achieve these goals, he'll have to gamble with Dorne's peace and prosperity. So rather than committing to one or the another, he's in this state of limbo, reaching out to the Targaryens without really doing enough to actually ensure their success. And if I had to take a guess, this indecision is going to be what costs him the most in the long run.

I don't believe the betrothal was his idea or that it was done with Doran's knowledge or approval. I am more inclined to think that it was something that Oberon conceived of his own accord and held over Doran's head. As such I think Doran spent more time managing Oberyn rather than working with him. 

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On 10/15/2018 at 7:44 AM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I agree completely. His family is largely made-up of hot-headed idiots. I honestly found him to be the only mildly interesting thing of the Dornish storyline. The sand snakes and Arriane  to come across as spoiled brats, with flights of fantasy, and no concept of honor yet ready to preach how honor demands revenge or whatever.

:)

 

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