Whose nameday falls first - Jon's or Robb's?

[SFDanny]

There is another thread about the Fisherman's Daughter in which timeline questions have come up relative to Jon and Robb's respective namedays. Do we know which one comes before the other? I think we do. Or to be more exact, I think we know which day is celebrated before the other. It is possible that Jon's birth wasn't actually on the nameday Ned tells everyone, but that is another story. Instead of derailing that thread with long discussions on basic timeline debates I'm starting this one for that purpose. This then is meant to reply to @wia post and to others belief that Jon is older than Robb, and known to be older in the story.

20 hours ago, wia said:

Actually no, we don't know that. I went and looked it up. We only know that Bran's nameday is earlier than Robb's: https://i.imgur.com/A1c1h5b.png

Actually yes, because that's not the only way to figure these things out.

Two quotes from Catelyn and Ned, already quoted in the previous thread,  should lay this to rest for most people. Let's look at them again.

Quote

"Many men fathered bastards. Catelyn had grown up with that knowledge. It came as no surprise to her, in the first year of her marriage, to learn that Ned had fathered a child on some girl chance met on campaign. He had a man's needs, after all, and they had spent that year apart, Ned off at war in the south while she remains safe in her father's castle at Riverrun. Her thoughts were more of Robb, the infant at her breast, than of the husband she scarcely knew. And if his seed quickened, she expected he would see to the child's needs." (AGoT 54-56) bold emphasis added

And then we have Ned's remarks to Robert among the barrows of the First Men.

Quote

"You were never the boy you were," Robert grumbled. "More's the pity. And yet there was that one time ... what was her name, that common girl of yours? Becca? No, she was one of mine, gods love her, black hair and these sweet big eyes, you could drown in them. Yours was ... Aleena? No. You told me once. Was it Merryl? You know the one I mean, your bastard's mother?"

"Her name was Wylla," Ned replied with cool courtesy, "and I would sooner not speak of her." 

"Wylla. Yes." The king grinned. "She must have been a rare wench if she could make Lord Eddard Stark forget his honor, even for an hour. You never told me what she looked like ..."

Ned's mouth tightened in anger. "Nor will I. Leave it be Robert, for the love you say you bear me. I dishonored myself and I dishonored Catelyn, in the sight of gods and men."

"Gods have mercy, you scarcely knew Catelyn."

"I had to wife. She was carrying my child."

"You are too hard on yourself, Ned. You always were. Damn it , no woman wants Baelor the Blessed in her bed." He slapped a hand on his knee. "Well , I'll not press you if you feel so strong about it, though I swear, at times you're so prickly you ought to take the hedgehog as your sigil." (AGoT 92) bold emphasis added

Just these two quotes include an incredible amount of information to the readers. First, it is important to note that Catelyn's is her own internal thoughts. Meaning either she is delusional about this or she is telling herself the truth, or at least what she believes to be the truth. That Ned's spoken remarks to Robert verify this timeline tells us that both of them are operating on the same set of facts and beliefs, although Ned knows some things - such as Wylla's name - that Catelyn doesn't know. Not surprising as much of this depends on Ned's story to Catelyn, such as it was, explaining Jon was his bastard son.

What both have in common is sequence. Catelyn and Ned marry in Riverrun (after the Battle of the Bells as I explained previously) and Ned spends a short honeymoon with his new bride, leaving her pregnant with Robb. It is only after that, when Ned leaves to continue the rebellion that at some point during the next year, Ned fathers Jon Snow with a woman he names Wylla to Robert. Whether or not Ned has made up a lie that Catelyn believes is true, their lives must reflect these agreed upon facts. That includes the timing of the respective namedays of Robb and Jon. 

Now, it is true, obviously, that not all pregnancies last the same time - even in Martin's fictional world. But we know how long Catelyn's did while carrying Robb.

Quote

Brandon Stark had bid her wait as well. "I shall not be long, my lady," he had vowed. "We will be wed on my return." Yet when the day came at last, it was his brother Eddard who stood beside her in the sept.

Ned had lingered scarcely a fortnight with his new bride before he too had ridden off to war with promises on his lips. Nine moons had waxed and waned, and Robb had been born in Riverrun while his father still warred in the south. She had brought him forth in blood and pain, not knowing whether Ned would ever see him. Her son. He had been so small ... (AGoT 581) bold emphasis added

By which we know Robb was a baby born at full term. 

We also know that Catelyn believes Robb was conceived on her wedding night.

Quote

She remembered her own childish disappointment, the first time she had laid eyes on Eddard Stark. She had pictured him as a younger version of his brother Brandon, but that was wrong. Ned was shorter and plainer of face, and so somber. He spoke courteously enough, but beneath the words she sensed a coolness that was all at odds with Brandon, whose mirths had been as wild as his rages. Even when he took her maidenhood, their love had more of duty to it than of passion. We made Robb that night, though; we made a king together. And after the war, at Winterfell, I had love enough for any woman, once I found the good sweet heart beneath Ned's solemn face. (ASoS 517) bold emphasis added

What does this mean? It means for this narrative laid out by both Ned and Catelyn to work AND Jon to be born before Robb that Catelyn's pregnancy has to be significantly longer than Jon's mother's was with him. Knowing the Robb is conceived on Ned and Catelyn's wedding night, and that Ned stays at Riverrun for a fortnight before he leaves her there to continue the war and that both Ned and Catelyn think Jon was conceived after he left gives us a vary small timeline in which Jon could be conceived and to have any chance of being born before Robb. How small? A matter of not the year Catelyn speaks of, but of weeks after Ned leaves her. Besides giving new meaning to the phrase "a man's needs" this makes us wonder why would Catelyn believe Ned's story if he comes home with his bastard son and tells her he cheated on her after he left during the rebellion and yet Jon is born first? It strains the credulity of Ned's story to the breaking point and beyond.

In this scenario we have to entertain things like a premature birth for Jon. Yet we know that in Martin's world a premature birth of a turn of the moon or more is almost certain death for the child. The best example of this is Elia Martell's own birth.

Quote

"I was the oldest," the prince said, "and yet I am the last. After Mors and Olyvar died in their cradles, I gave up the hope of brother. I was nine when Elia came, a squire in service at Salt Shore. When the raven arrived with word that my mother had been brought to bed a month too soon, I was old enough to understand that meant the child would not live. Even when Lord Gargalen told me that I had a sister, I assured him that she must shortly die. Yet she lived by the Mother's mercy. And a year later Oberyn arrived, squalling and kicking. (AFfC 35-36) bold emphasis added.

This is then the expected norm of a premature child born under the best care available in Westeros. It is only through "divine intervention" that Elia lives. Yet, if Jon is a premature birth, then he is born under conditions of the poorest of the poor. A woman of the small folk chance met during the rebellion who would have none of the advantages in care the Princess of Dorne could expect. Another reason to doubt this scenario.

I can and will go on about what we know about Jon and Robb's namedays and why I believe it is clear Robb's is celebrated before Jon's but let's start this discussion with this as the frame. It is highly unlikely that Jon's story is that of a child conceived within weeks of Ned's departure from Riverrun. It doesn't fit the story as both Catelyn and Ned tell it, and it runs counter to the world Martin has created. 

[wia]

4 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Two quotes from Catelyn and Ned, already quoted in the previous thread,  should lay this to rest for most people. Let's look at them again.

Cathelyn doesn't know when Jon was born. She has no way to know, she wasn't present. And according to RLJ that you was arguing for in that thread (I'm assuming that "That in and of itself isn't unusual, but if Ned is trying to hide Jon's real story he has to provide a cover story for how and when he and Wylla met." is about RLJ at least), Ned was lying to Robert in that quote. I don't really get how can you go "Ned is lying about Ned+Wylla=Jon when I'm arguing RLJ, but he's totally telling the truth when I'm arguing who's older between Jon and Robb". Pick one.

So how would one use a guess of someone who has no reliable way to know something and a supposed lie to calculate Jon's age is beyond my understanding.

Now, the main point here is, which one are you arguing, with RLJ in mind, the date when Jon was born or the date when Ned said Jon was born?

20 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

I can and will go on about what we know about Jon and Robb's namedays and why I believe it is clear Robb's is celebrated before Jon's but let's start this discussion with this as the frame.

I suggest you go on and quote from the book on their namedays celebrations, then. 'Cause I couldn't find it.

Chronologically Jon turning 15 is mentioned several chapters before Robb in GOT. That doesn't mean anything though. just as what Cathelyn thinks or whether what Ned said was the truth or not. At least I couldn't find any clear and definitive proofs about who is older.

[Rufus Snow]

43 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

It is highly unlikely that Jon's story is that of a child conceived within weeks of Ned's departure from Riverrun. It doesn't fit the story as both Catelyn and Ned tell it, and it runs counter to the world Martin has created. 

If I'm following you here, you're taking the view Ned is not Jon's real father? And from @wia's post you take a R+L=J standpoint. If so, I agree with you so far. But having said that, those two conversations above - Cat/Ned and Ned/Robert - actually tell us nothing about Jon's actual age, because in both conversations one party is ignorant of the truth, and the other is clearly lying. All we can deduce is what 'cover story' Ned is trying to establish, whether it's credible or not. And I think it's safest for him if he establishes that Jon is 'officially' younger than Robb as that ensures his firstborn remains his firstborn in the eyes of the world. Telling the world that he has fathered a bastard after marrying Cat is quite enough to cause Ned to feel he has dihonoured both Cat and himself - almost as dishonourable as if it had been true.

For my money, Ned needed Jon to be younger than Robb, whatever the truth. I think this is your drift, too, but do correct me if I have mistaken you....

[wia]

Just now, Rufus Snow said:

those two conversations above - Cat/Ned and Ned/Robert - actually tell us nothing about Jon's actual age, because in both conversations one party is ignorant of the truth, and the other is clearly lying. All we can deduce is what 'cover story' Ned is trying to establish, whether it's credible or not. And I think it's safest for him if he establishes that Jon is 'officially' younger than Robb as that ensures his firstborn remains his firstborn in the eyes of the world. Telling the world that he has fathered a bastard after marrying Cat is quite enough to cause Ned to feel he has dihonoured both Cat and himself - almost as dishonourable as if it had been true.

For my money, Ned needed Jon to be younger than Robb, whatever the truth. I think this is your drift, too, but o correct me if I have mistaken you....

I don't disagree with that btw. I just think that that would be a theory, and not a clear and definitive statement in the book.

[SFDanny]

I'm on the run, so let me just respond quickly. This is not about whether or not Jon's nameday has been changed from what it really was. As I've tried to make clear that is possible - whether or not he was actually born before Robb. That is an issue better debated in the R+L=J threads because the reason for such a secret change is tied to why Ned would do such a thing? I believe he had a powerful motive to move the date in that he doesn't want anyone to tie it to Lyanna's death or Ned's time at the tower of joy. But again, that discussion is not for this thread. What is the topic of this thread is whether or not we can be sure of when the celebrated namedays of Robb and Jon take place relative to one another. I've created a frame for that discussion with quotes that show how unlikely it is that Jon's nameday is celebrated before Robb's. If you disagree with that frame and think you can show why it is wrong, please post your thoughts here. More later.

[867-5309]

Jon is older than Robb.  That is why the maester had to invent some bull about bastard boys growing up faster than legitimate boys.  It was cover up to hide the fact that Jon is older.  Lyanna was likely already pregnant when she disappeared.  

[Weirwood Ghost]

Is there a direction going on here? I know knowing their name-day adds weight to Ned's lie depending how he portrayed it to Cat, but is there any point to this?

[Faera]

I honestly don't think we can fairly guess which of the two boys was born first simply because we can't even really on the chapters in the book mentioning the characters' ages seeing as, from my understanding the chapters aren't chronological necessarily. Jon and Robb both turned fifteen in AGoT but we have never had another birthday officially mentioned for Jon thereafter. Obviously, he's turned sixteen now but he hasn't thought about it or remarked on it. Together with the fact that Robb and Jon's stories do not overlap at any point but are, in fact, very removed from one another we cannot stick either's events on a concrete timeline to determine which of them is older.

Besides, it doesn't really matter. I have personally always seen Jon as being slightly younger than Robb but it makes no difference really; who cares if Jon is older? It changes nothing.

[The Map Guy]

50 minutes ago, Weirwood Ghost said:

Is there a direction going on here? I know knowing their name-day adds weight to Ned's lie depending how he portrayed it to Cat, but is there any point to this?

 

43 minutes ago, Faera said:

Besides, it doesn't really matter. I have personally always seen Jon as being slightly younger than Robb but it makes no difference really; who cares if Jon is older? It changes nothing.

I agree, it doesn't change anything if one is older than the other. The only time it would matter is if Jon is really Ned's son...but with R+L=J, Jon is not Ned's son.

 

This whole debate originated from the Fisherman's Daughter gossip, which is Ned+FD=Jon.......but its not true to begin with because R+L=Jon.

The FD gossip suggested that Jon is older than Robb.

This debate was trying to determine if at least that part of the FD gossip was true........even though as whole, the FD gossip doesn't matter.

[The Ned's Little Girl]

1 hour ago, Faera said:

I have personally always seen Jon as being slightly younger than Robb but it makes no difference really; who cares if Jon is older? It changes nothing.

I think Catelyn would care if Jon was older. It would mean that Ned didn't cheat on her, which was definitely a source of pain for her. (Not as deep as the pain of having her husband's bastard raised in her home alongside their legitimate children, but still.)

I think Ned would care if Jon was older. He's pretty guilt-ridden at causing such pain to his wife. It surely would have been easier on both of them if Ned could have explained Jon away as the result of a quickie while Ned was still unmarried.

It's telling, to me, that Ned wasn't able to take that easier route. That makes it pretty clear that Jon was clearly and visibly younger than Robb.

 

[Here's Looking At You, Kid]

That Jon being younger is the lie that Eddard was trying to spread.  Maester Leuwin helped him along when he declared that bastard children grow up faster to help explain Jon's more advanced physical maturity.  Jon is more mature because he is older than Robb.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

4 hours ago, The Ned's Little Girl said:

I think Catelyn would care if Jon was older. It would mean that Ned didn't cheat on her, which was definitely a source of pain for her. (Not as deep as the pain of having her husband's bastard raised in her home alongside their legitimate children, but still.)

I think Ned would care if Jon was older. He's pretty guilt-ridden at causing such pain to his wife. It surely would have been easier on both of them if Ned could have explained Jon away as the result of a quickie while Ned was still unmarried.

It's telling, to me, that Ned wasn't able to take that easier route. That makes it pretty clear that Jon was clearly and visibly younger than Robb.

 

Jon being older would terrify Catelyn , an older Jon's children could contend with her Robb's for Winterfell .

[The Ned's Little Girl]

1 hour ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

That Jon being younger is the lie that Eddard was trying to spread.  Maester Leuwin helped him along when he declared that bastard children grow up faster to help explain Jon's more advanced physical maturity.  Jon is more mature because he is older than Robb.

Seriously, this is not a thing. There is no possible way that the marital status of the parents can have any effect whatsoever on the physical developmental progress of a child. That's not how this works.

 

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

Jon's name day falls first. We must assume that Ned named Jon after Jon Arryn, and unless Ned made Catelyn promise ,I seriously doubt that she would name her son Robb . I could see her naming her son after some Stark lord or after Hoster Tully ,but Robb? Catelyn did not have that type of relationship with Robert Baratheon.

The timelines are all screwed up and the only thing we know is they are basically the same age .

[Darion Storm]

If the Fisherman’s Daughter theory is true Jon must be older as this would be at least a few months before the wedding, considering how long it would take to assemble the Northern army and travel through the Neck to Stoney Sept.

If R+L=J it could go either way as they were together for nearly a year before Ned and Cat’s wedding, but still could’ve conceived him just before Rhaegar left to fight.

If N+A=J Jon should surely be older as the only opportunity to conceive him would be at Harrenhal, he seems to go back to the Eyrie afterwards and doesn’t go to Dorne until the end of the war.

If Ned fathered Jon on a camp follower or other during the war, Jon is most likely younger unless it happened at Stoney Sept or on the way there.

It may not have been where you were going, but it’s worth noting that a legitimised bastard as a general rule comes after any legitimate children - in this case he would be after Rickon, maybe even after Arya.

[Lady Barbrey]

11 hours ago, 867-5309 said:

Jon is older than Robb.  That is why the maester had to invent some bull about bastard boys growing up faster than legitimate boys.  It was cover up to hide the fact that Jon is older.  Lyanna was likely already pregnant when she disappeared.  

That's a phrase that has nothing to do with physical development.  He doesn't say bastards grow faster, he says they grow up faster.  I've seen this phrase applied to cripples and orphans too.  Their lives are harder so they mature and toughen up emotionally sooner.

[Lady Barbrey]

14 hours ago, SFDanny said:

There is another thread about the Fisherman's Daughter in which timeline questions have come up relative to Jon and Robb's respective namedays. Do we know which one comes before the other? I think we do. Or to be more exact, I think we know which day is celebrated before the other. It is possible that Jon's birth wasn't actually on the nameday Ned tells everyone, but that is another story. Instead of derailing that thread with long discussions on basic timeline debates I'm starting this one for that purpose. This then is meant to reply to @wia post and to others belief that Jon is older than Robb, and known to be older in the story.

Actually yes, because that's not the only way to figure these things out.

Two quotes from Catelyn and Ned, already quoted in the previous thread,  should lay this to rest for most people. Let's look at them again.

And then we have Ned's remarks to Robert among the barrows of the First Men.

Just these two quotes include an incredible amount of information to the readers. First, it is important to note that Catelyn's is her own internal thoughts. Meaning either she is delusional about this or she is telling herself the truth, or at least what she believes to be the truth. That Ned's spoken remarks to Robert verify this timeline tells us that both of them are operating on the same set of facts and beliefs, although Ned knows some things - such as Wylla's name - that Catelyn doesn't know. Not surprising as much of this depends on Ned's story to Catelyn, such as it was, explaining Jon was his bastard son.

What both have in common is sequence. Catelyn and Ned marry in Riverrun (after the Battle of the Bells as I explained previously) and Ned spends a short honeymoon with his new bride, leaving her pregnant with Robb. It is only after that, when Ned leaves to continue the rebellion that at some point during the next year, Ned fathers Jon Snow with a woman he names Wylla to Robert. Whether or not Ned has made up a lie that Catelyn believes is true, their lives must reflect these agreed upon facts. That includes the timing of the respective namedays of Robb and Jon. 

Now, it is true, obviously, that not all pregnancies last the same time - even in Martin's fictional world. But we know how long Catelyn's did while carrying Robb.

By which we know Robb was a baby born at full term. 

We also know that Catelyn believes Robb was conceived on her wedding night.

What does this mean? It means for this narrative laid out by both Ned and Catelyn to work AND Jon to be born before Robb that Catelyn's pregnancy has to be significantly longer than Jon's mother's was with him. Knowing the Robb is conceived on Ned and Catelyn's wedding night, and that Ned stays at Riverrun for a fortnight before he leaves her there to continue the war and that both Ned and Catelyn think Jon was conceived after he left gives us a vary small timeline in which Jon could be conceived and to have any chance of being born before Robb. How small? A matter of not the year Catelyn speaks of, but of weeks after Ned leaves her. Besides giving new meaning to the phrase "a man's needs" this makes us wonder why would Catelyn believe Ned's story if he comes home with his bastard son and tells her he cheated on her after he left during the rebellion and yet Jon is born first? It strains the credulity of Ned's story to the breaking point and beyond.

In this scenario we have to entertain things like a premature birth for Jon. Yet we know that in Martin's world a premature birth of a turn of the moon or more is almost certain death for the child. The best example of this is Elia Martell's own birth.

This is then the expected norm of a premature child born under the best care available in Westeros. It is only through "divine intervention" that Elia lives. Yet, if Jon is a premature birth, then he is born under conditions of the poorest of the poor. A woman of the small folk chance met during the rebellion who would have none of the advantages in care the Princess of Dorne could expect. Another reason to doubt this scenario.

I can and will go on about what we know about Jon and Robb's namedays and why I believe it is clear Robb's is celebrated before Jon's but let's start this discussion with this as the frame. It is highly unlikely that Jon's story is that of a child conceived within weeks of Ned's departure from Riverrun. It doesn't fit the story as both Catelyn and Ned tell it, and it runs counter to the world Martin has created. 

If Ned finds Lyanna after she just gives birth, Jon is younger than Robb anyway. I was just looking at Robert's Rebellion on the wiki, and though there are no definite dates, you can tell something about them anyway.  

The Rebellion, which "strictly" lasts from Arryn raising his banners to the taking of King's Landing, lasted "close on a year".  

However, the siege of Storms End, which began after the Gulls Town Siege and two short battles, and right before the Battle of the Bells, went on after Kings Landing was taken, and the siege too supposedly lasted "close on a year" (I have to smile).  

Arryn Calls Banners ........BofBells.........................King's Landing

                                           Storms End Siege Begins..................................Siege Lifted

So all we have to do is deduct the time we think it took Ned after KL to travel to Storm's End and lift the siege - no more than two months likely - and deduct that time from the beginning of the Rebellion proper, and we can say the Battle of the Bells, when Robb was conceived, happened very near the beginning of the Rebellion, only a few months into it, so Robb was probably born 9 months later about the time of the taking of Kings Landing.  And Jon was born likely about two months later than that - at any rate, the amount of time it would take to ride to Storm's End from Kings Landing, lift a siege, then ride to the Tower of Joy.

No need to make anything up, Jon's nameday is his own, a few months after Robb's.

I feel very smart after that, though just waiting for anyone with a math brain to take me down.  But honestly if all we've got are two durations of "close on a year" for the Rebellion Proper, and the Storms End Siege, then this makes sense to me, though it is hard to explain in words so you'll have to go to the wiki and see for yourself.

 

[Megorova]

Let's forget whether Jon is Ned's son or Rhaegar's. Let's forget who is Jon's real mother (whether that's Lyanna, Ashara Dayne, or some fisherman's daughter). Let's forget when in the books whose nameday (Jon's or Robb's) is celebrated earlier.

Let's instead remember what about it said GRRM:

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1040/

Quote

All of which is a long winded way of saying, no, Jon was not born "more than 1 year" before Dany... probably closer to eight or nine months or thereabouts.

This is the only reliable information about Jon's origin, that we can trust. GRRM said, that Jon is 8-9 months older than Dany, thus this is our starting point. Let's forget about Robb. His data is totally unneeded to figure out when Jon was actually born.

AGOT, chapter 3:

Quote

Yet sometimes Dany would picture the way it had been, so often had her brother told her the stories. 1. The midnight flight to Dragonstone, moonlight shimmering on the ship's black sails. Her brother 2. Rhaegar battling the Usurper in the bloody waters of the Trident and dying for the woman he loved. 3. The sack of King's Landing by the ones Viserys called the Usurper's dogs, the lords Lannister and Stark. Princess Elia of Dorne pleading for mercy as Rhaegar's heir was ripped from her breast and murdered before her eyes. The polished skulls of the last dragons staring down sightlessly from the walls of the throne room while the Kingslayer opened Father's throat with a golden sword.

4. She had been born on Dragonstone nine moons after their flight, while a raging summer storm threatened to rip the island fastness apart.

Dany was born 9 months after Rhaella went to Dragonstone. Pregnancy lasts 40 weeks, that's a bit over 9 month (9 month and 10 more days).

Jon was born 8-9 months before Dany. So either Jon was born at the time when KL was sacked (that's if he is 9 months older than Dany), or he was born after the Sack of KL (if he is less than 9 months older than Dany). It is known, that after events at KL, Ned Stark first went to Storm's End, and from there to the Tower of Joy, where he witnessed Lyanna's final moments in the bed of blood. One month is enough to travel from KL to Storm' End and to the Tower.

We also know, that when Dany found out about her pregnancy, it was the day of her 14th birthday. Sometime after this, the same information was revealed to Ned and Robert at KL. At this time Robb is still 14. And we know how much time approximately has passed between Ned finding out about Dany's pregnancy, Ned's execution, and Robb gathering his bannermen at Winterfell, when he turned 15. Go thru that info, and it becomes obvious, that Jon's birthday is earlier than Robb's.

[The Ned's Little Girl]

8 hours ago, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

Jon being older would terrify Catelyn , an older Jon's children could contend with her Robb's for Winterfell .

Catelyn's anxiety on this issue has more to do with the actual fact of Jon's existence in the first place, than to do with the relative ages of the two boys.

 

[ravenous reader]

Jon is older than Robb, as we should suspect after a big deal was made by the author of his wolf's eyes having opened first.  Ghost is the alpha wolf.