Whose nameday falls first - Jon's or Robb's?

[Pontius Pilate]

16 hours ago, 867-5309 said:

Jon is older than Robb.  That is why the maester had to invent some bull about bastard boys growing up faster than legitimate boys.  It was cover up to hide the fact that Jon is older.  Lyanna was likely already pregnant when she disappeared.  

Jon is older.  

[Lady Fevre Dream]

12 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

That Jon being younger is the lie that Eddard was trying to spread.  Maester Leuwin helped him along when he declared that bastard children grow up faster to help explain Jon's more advanced physical maturity.  Jon is more mature because he is older than Robb.

 

10 hours ago, The Ned's Little Girl said:

Seriously, this is not a thing. There is no possible way that the marital status of the parents can have any effect whatsoever on the physical developmental progress of a child. That's not how this works.

 

I'd always thought that this comment of Luwin's referred to Jon having to mature mentally and emotionally because of the delicacy of the entire situation.  It was about the extra burden that was put on Jon, compared to his (half) siblings, it wasn't about physical maturation. 

[Faera]

17 hours ago, The Ned's Little Girl said:

I think Catelyn would care if Jon was older. It would mean that Ned didn't cheat on her, which was definitely a source of pain for her. (Not as deep as the pain of having her husband's bastard raised in her home alongside their legitimate children, but still.)

 I think Ned would care if Jon was older. He's pretty guilt-ridden at causing such pain to his wife. It surely would have been easier on both of them if Ned could have explained Jon away as the result of a quickie while Ned was still unmarried.

It's telling, to me, that Ned wasn't able to take that easier route. That makes it pretty clear that Jon was clearly and visibly younger than Robb.

 

Pretty much everything you said, I agree. My main point is that any impact Jon's age would have had are past issues that don't seem to have come up at any point. As you say, I had always imagined it would have been easier for Cat to process his presence if he had clearly been older than Robb. The fact she never did and, again as you say, Ned never profited off the notion that Jon was older indicates that Jon very likely was a visibly younger child that Robb.

17 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

This debate was trying to determine if at least that part of the FD gossip was true........even though as whole, the FD gossip doesn't matter.

I wouldn't trust that rumour as a means of working out Jon's possible age because by the time these stories and rumours got around I imagine both Jon and Robb would have already been born and old enough that people could not tell a difference, if there was ever much to big with.

 

3 hours ago, The Ned's Little Girl said:

Catelyn's anxiety on this issue has more to do with the actual fact of Jon's existence in the first place, than to do with the relative ages of the two boys.

True, Jon being there upset her because he represented a betrayal that she was forced to look at everyday. 

Besides, she always seemed more concerned about Jon growing up to get married and have true born children to contest with her potential grandchildren. The taint of bastardy doesn't outlast the bastard provided they marry and Jon is in a very good place to found his own house. She as good as thinks about how relieved she is that Jon is leaving for the Wall essentially because it means he will never have children, and is then upset at the idea on Robb naming Jon heir in his will because it is purposely to disinherit Sansa (and Arya through her being M;PD) and create that very risk for any child Robb may have in the future.

[Lady Barbrey]

5 hours ago, Megorova said:

Let's forget whether Jon is Ned's son or Rhaegar's. Let's forget who is Jon's real mother (whether that's Lyanna, Ashara Dayne, or some fisherman's daughter). Let's forget when in the books whose nameday (Jon's or Robb's) is celebrated earlier.

Let's instead remember what about it said GRRM:

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1040/

This is the only reliable information about Jon's origin, that we can trust. GRRM said, that Jon is 8-9 months older than Dany, thus this is our starting point. Let's forget about Robb. His data is totally unneeded to figure out when Jon was actually born.

AGOT, chapter 3:

Dany was born 9 months after Rhaella went to Dragonstone. Pregnancy lasts 40 weeks, that's a bit over 9 month (9 month and 10 more days).

Jon was born 8-9 months before Dany. So either Jon was born at the time when KL was sacked (that's if he is 9 months older than Dany), or he was born after the Sack of KL (if he is less than 9 months older than Dany). It is known, that after events at KL, Ned Stark first went to Storm's End, and from there to the Tower of Joy, where he witnessed Lyanna's final moments in the bed of blood. One month is enough to travel from KL to Storm' End and to the Tower.

We also know, that when Dany found out about her pregnancy, it was the day of her 14th birthday. Sometime after this, the same information was revealed to Ned and Robert at KL. At this time Robb is still 14. And we know how much time approximately has passed between Ned finding out about Dany's pregnancy, Ned's execution, and Robb gathering his bannermen at Winterfell, when he turned 15. Go thru that info, and it becomes obvious, that Jon's birthday is earlier than Robb's.

So are you saying Jon was born a month before Ned found him and Lyanna?

 

[The Ned's Little Girl]

38 minutes ago, Faera said:

Besides, she always seemed more concerned about Jon growing up to get married and have true born children to contest with her potential grandchildren.

Here's where it gets muddy. Assuming for the sake of argument that Jon is older and that he is Ned's son (both of which I think are untrue), Jon's bastardy would still present an impediment to his children contesting for rule of Winterfell.

Which would be the superior claim, one among grandchildren that derives from an older but bastard son, or one among grandchildren that derives from a younger but legitimate son?

Since even a legitimised bastard gets relegated to the end of the line behind legitimate heirs, regardless of said bastard's age, then the second scenario would be the more legally-correct one. Which likely would also make it the more enforceable claim.

4 hours ago, Centurion Piso said:

Jon is older.  

If so, can you explain why Ned chose to present Jon as younger and therefore as a betrayal of his marriage vows? Why would he take on that burden, as well as force Catelyn to do the same, unless he was obliged to by Jon's being noticeably younger?

Besides, doesn't it seem likely that Honorable Ned Stark would actually cause more gossip and speculation by acknowledging breaking his marriage vows, than if he had produced a bastard offspring who could plausibly be passed off as conceived while Ned was still a single man? Heads would hardly turn at all on that prospect.

 

[corbon]

5 hours ago, The Ned's Little Girl said:

Catelyn's anxiety on this issue has more to do with the actual fact of Jon's existence in the first place, than to do with the relative ages of the two boys.

True, but if she believed Jon was older her anxiety would be even greater. An older bastard, even though technically no different than a younger bastard, has a stronger claim if people want to usurp the 'rightful' way of things. And you never know what might happen in the future that causes people to want to usurp the way of things...

On 10/13/2018 at 11:51 AM, wia said:

How do you get months 12 and 13 in a war that lasted less than a year? - You get a maximum of 11 months, that's what doesn't work. The latest Jon could've been born, would be month 11. That would make his conception in month 2. Battle of the bells would have to be prior to that for Robb to be older.

Because we are extending beyond the end of the war (Sack of KL), past Ned riding south to End the Siege of Storms End, and on until Ned reaches the ToJ.

Jon wasn't born 'during the war', he was born at the ToJ some time (up to a month or two) after the war (officially at least) ended.
And Robb's birth isn't clearly related to the end of the war at all, only to the Battle of the Bells.

On 10/14/2018 at 4:41 AM, Frey family reunion said:

I'm unsure that Ned ever told Cat anything about Jon's conception, or whether he conceived Jon before or after their marriage.

Based on this, I don't think that we can assume that Ned even told Cat when Jon was conceived.

I agree. Ned never told Catelyn anything about Jon's conception, at least not directly.
But Jon has a name day celebrated (probably not on the real day) and its clear to everyone (Ned, Cat and Robert at least) that Jon is a dishonour to Cat, therefore conceived after her marriage.
You don't have to tell someone something explicitly for them to understand it implicitly from your other words and deeds, or other information.

On 10/14/2018 at 4:41 AM, Frey family reunion said:

Now Ned does seem to say to Robert that he conceived Jon with Wylla after his marriage to Cat.  But the story that Ned tells Robert about Wylla is probably not a story that Cat has ever heard.  

Ned doesn't tell Robert anything about Jon's conception, or about Wylla, just that the woman Robert is thinking of's name is Wylla. Robert names her Jon's mum, Ned merely leaves that statement to lie.
Ned does tell Robert that he dishonoured himself and Cat. I believe that is in reference to claiming Jon as his bastard (which he isn't), not of fathering him (which he didn't).

On 10/14/2018 at 4:41 AM, Frey family reunion said:

Now Ned does seem to say to Robert that he conceived Jon with Wylla after his marriage to Cat.  But the story that Ned tells Robert about Wylla is probably not a story that Cat has ever heard.  

See above. I don't believe Ned ever told Robert a story. I believe long ago Robert asked about the wetnurse, probably having had some report from Varys, making the assumption that Ned was doing the semi-honourable thing and looking after both mother and child under the cover of the wetnurse.

All we know is that once previously Ned told Robert the name of the woman Robert assumes is his bastard's mother (and that Robert never met her).

Cat may or may not have heard the story about Wylla. We know she doesn't consider that she has any clues about who else the mother might be, but that may just mean she has heard the Wylla story but dismisses it entirely as a foolishly false rumour. If Wylla remained Jon's wetnurse until after she returned to Winterfell (there's arguments about that too), she may well have met Wylla and even seen Wylla and Ned interacting. The only people who bring up the Wylla story are people who are miles away or not even born and have no personal experience of any of the 'players' interacting.
Or of course she didn't hear it. Its clear that Ned dealt to the stories about Jon in Winterfell generally, after his talk with Cat, not just that he stopped her enquiry cold. That is why he wants to know where she heard that name.

On 10/14/2018 at 4:41 AM, Frey family reunion said:

So it seems very possible that Ned never told Cat that he dishonored her after he married her and she became pregnant with Rob.  I think that Cat assumes that Jon was conceived sometime during the war:

Now this quotes seems to imply that Cat thinks Ned fathered Jon after their marriage.  But if you read it really closely, I'm not sure the passage even establishes that.  Cat doesn't say that Ned conceived Jon after their marriage.  She says that she first learned of Eddard fathering Jon in the first year of her marriage.   

Now she does seem to assume that it had happened when Ned was fighting the war in the south, while she was in Riverrun, which probably means that she is assuming it took place after their marriage as opposed to before.  But we really aren't aware of the basis for this assumption.  It could just as easily have come from the same rumors swirling in Winterfell, that Ashara was Jon's mother.  In other words, Jon was a child brought back to Winterfell from the south, as opposed to Jon being a child being born to a woman up North, conceived when Eddard returned to Winterfell to gather the troops. 

Yes. Jon was clearly born in the south, and as you note, the quote means she believes Jon was fathered after left her after their marriage, which means after Robb was fathered.
The basis for this doesn't matter really. It simply confirms that she believes Robb is older than Jon. Since Robb was conceived 3-4 months into the war, that rules out the Fisherman's Daughter scenario, which required Jon's conception in the first month or so of the war and would leave Jon at least 2 months older than Rob, which is massively significant during those first 6 months or so when babies are first doing things like rolling over, holding their own heads up, recognising familiar people etc etc..

On 10/14/2018 at 4:52 AM, Frey family reunion said:

Except that it doesn't appear that the Eddard fathering a child by Wylla was a rumor that was being spoken around Winterfell.  At the very least, it somehow didn't make it to Cat's ears, yet the story of Ned having conceived a child with Ashara did.  So it's fairly easy here to put two and two together.  Catelyn hears a rumor around Winterfell that Ashara is Jon's mother.  Around the same time period Harwyn hears a rumor that Eddard's affair with Ashara happened during the Harrenhal tourney.  So it's fairly easy to conclude that the rumor around Winterfell was that Eddard conceived Jon with Ashara and the conception happened before Ned was betrothed to Cat.

No. Concluding that is conflating two different things that are over a year apart. Ned having an affair with Ashara at Harrenhal, and Ashara being Jon's mother does not lead to the conclusion that Jon was conceived before Cat married Ned. If anything, it leads to the conclusion that Jon was conceived after the marriage as the only real opportunity Ned would have with Ashara that remotely fits with Jon's age would be, exactly as Cat believes, "some girl chance (Ashara) met on campaign... in the south" - after Ned married Cat and then went off on campaign.

On 10/14/2018 at 4:52 AM, Frey family reunion said:

That's an interesting take on that exchange, I never thought of that as the double meaning, but it does work.  But my original point is that we don't know that Ned told Cat that he cheated on her after the marriage.  We just know that he told Robert that.  And we also know that the story that he told Robert is not a story that Cat is aware of.  It does not appear that she ever heard the name Wylla before.

ETA:  my one issue with your interpretation of Ned's hidden meaning (even though I do quite like it) is that it seems to ignore the temporal element of Ned's story.  Ned seems to indicate that the dishonor occured while (presumably Catelyn) was pregnant with his child.

But Ned's acknowledgment of Jon as his son, for all to know probably occurs after Robb's birth.  So if this was Ned's hidden meaning, he's still not really being truthful or accurate.  

ETA again:  In retrospect, I really can't assume that can I?  In fact in a way, your interpretation may be additional evidence that Jon is older than Robb.  Jon was born and acknowledged as Eddard's child while Catelyn was still pregnant with Robb. 

ETA again + 1:  Crap that pretty much answers it.  The dishonor that Ned speaks of to Robert is not an affair, it's the false acknowledgment of Jon (in the sight of gods and men) which occured while Catelyn was still carrying Robb.

Yes, Ned surely acknowledges Jon as his after Robb's birth. I'm not sure what led you to believe he's acknowledging he has a bastard before Robb's born. The dishonour he is acknowledging occurred while she is pregnant, but the real dishonour, the false acknowledgment itself, occurs only after he has found Jon at ToJ.
Of course he's not being truthful or accurate. He's telling the world a big lie - that he dishonoured Cat and fathered a bastard. This is a very important lie, As Ned tell's Arya, "some lies... are not without honour". But Ned being Ned, he tries to keep the actual factual lies to a minimum. It not only keeps his honour as much intact as possible, its also the best way to to get caught in a lie. And in this case, he's talking with Robert, who really is the ultimate target of this lie. Ned's using the safest lies - truthful ones. He lets Robert make false statements and doesn't correct him, then lets Robert's assumptions and inaccurate language allow Ned to tell Robert misleading truths. Wylla is the name Ned told Robert earlier, but there is no evidence Ned ever told Robert that Wylla was Jon's mum. That is all Robert the second time, and for all we know was all Robert the first time too.

And I agree that Ned never told Cat anything about Jon (other than "he is my blood" and acknowledging him as a bastard and calling him son). 

I think Jon and Robb are close enough in age that by the time Ned is acknowledging Jon as his bastard, Robb has already been born. The earliest he can possibly be doing that is at Starfall after the ToJ, and its possible he didn't actually do it until visiting Robert on the way home, or even when he reached home, or possibly even not until Cat actually reached Winterfell with Robb in her arms. 
Yes, we don't know for sure that Robb was born by the time Ned reaches Starfall, but that's a reasonable possibility, even probability - almost a certainty in the light of Cat clearly believing Jon to be the younger.

I think we are pretty much in agreement, just a few wrinkles there to iron out.

[Frey family reunion]

16 minutes ago, corbon said:

Yes, Ned surely acknowledges Jon as his after Robb's birth. I'm not sure what led you to believe he's acknowledging he has a bastard before Robb's born. The dishonour he is acknowledging occurred while she is pregnant, but the real dishonour, the false acknowledgment itself, occurs only after he has found Jon at ToJ.

Because the dishonor that Ned speaks of is a dishonor that occurred in the sight of gods and men.  He's not talking about an affair, he's talking about an acknowledgment.  An affair doesn't happen in the sight of gods and men, but a public acknowledgment does.  He falsely swore that Jon was his.  And this dishonor in the sight of gods and men occurred while Cat was still carrying his child:

Quote

“Ned’s mouth tightened in anger. “Nor will I. Leave it be, Robert, for the love you say you bear me. I dishonored myself and I dishonored Catelyn, in the sight of gods and men.”
“Gods have mercy, you scarcely knew Catelyn.”
“I had taken her to wife. She was carrying my child.”

Ned has to lie to Robert about Wylla, but he doesn't have to lie to Robert about this.  This is real, this is Eddard expressing when he actually committed a dishonor, not at the time of Jon's conception, but when he falsely swore that Jon was his.

[wia]

30 minutes ago, corbon said:

Because we are extending beyond the end of the war (Sack of KL), past Ned riding south to End the Siege of Storms End, and on until Ned reaches the ToJ.

Jon wasn't born 'during the war', he was born at the ToJ some time (up to a month or two) after the war (officially at least) ended.
And Robb's birth isn't clearly related to the end of the war at all, only to the Battle of the Bells.

Not sure what info in the books or that GRRM personally provided are you referencing. I certainly have never came across it.

GRRM said it's 8-9 months before Dany which is Trident-Sack + 1 month maximum. That gives you months 11 and 12, and that's assuming the war lasted 11 months, which is, again, us getting the maximum numbers and stretching it. But then how in your theory the Siege of Storm's End could've also lasted less that a year is a mystery.

Can you try and demonstrate a convincing timeline with correct order of events where the war (from Gulltown to the Sack) would be less than a year and the Siege of Storm's End would also be less than a year and Jon would be born when GRRM said, not when RLJ theory said and Robb would clearly be born before Jon?

[corbon]

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

Because the dishonor that Ned speaks of is a dishonor that occurred in the sight of gods and men.  He's not talking about an affair, he's talking about an acknowledgment.  An affair doesn't happen in the sight of gods and men, but a public acknowledgment does.  He falsely swore that Jon was his.  And this dishonor in the sight of gods and men occurred while Cat was still carrying his child:

Ned has to lie to Robert about Wylla, but he doesn't have to lie to Robert about this.  This is real, this is Eddard expressing when he actually committed a dishonor, not at the time of Jon's conception, but when he falsely swore that Jon was his.

Err, yes. Catelyn was carrying his child at the time he supposedly dishonoured her, the time he (supposedly) conceived Jon.
You seem to be putting these things tightly into two separate boxes, but they are interwoven. "In the sight of gods and men"  is the acknowledgment , which for him is a dishonour (because he's lying to and hurting Cat) but its not actually the dishonour to everyone else. Acknowledging a bastard is pretty honourable actually (edit: unless its a lie), its conceiving the bastard that is dishonourable. Acknowledging it is owning up your error and doing the right thing by the child instead of hiding your dishonour and mistreating the child.

The two are intermixed. 
Ned says he dishonoured Catelyn (privately when he acknowledged Jon, publicly believed to be when he fathered Jon). Robert basically says "don't be so hard on yourself, you barely knew your wife then" (Ned and Cat had never met before their wedding, so Ned married a stranger, filled her belly, left for the war, all within days or weeks) and Ned basically says back "it doesn't matter, she was my wife, pregnant, and I shouldn't have fathered a bastard"

1 hour ago, wia said:

Not sure what info in the books or that GRRM personally provided are you referencing. I certainly have never came across it.

GRRM said it's 8-9 months before Dany which is Trident-Sack + 1 month maximum. That gives you months 11 and 12, and that's assuming the war lasted 11 months, which is, again, us getting the maximum numbers and stretching it. But then how in your theory the Siege of Storm's End could've also lasted less that a year is a mystery.

Can you try and demonstrate a convincing timeline with correct order of events where the war (from Gulltown to the Sack) would be less than a year and the Siege of Storm's End would also be less than a year and Jon would be born when GRRM said, not when RLJ theory said and Robb would clearly be born before Jon?

First, lets be clear. The info in the text in generally presented in casual language between people, not hard and fast dates. As such, there is weeks or even months of flexibility in there. January to January is "a year" but may be 11 months and 1 day.

Quote

the war had raged for close to a year

Generally this means slightly less than a year, or else it would be "a year", "over a year", "at least a year" or similar. So lets say (never mind the correct months) Jan to Dec. Thats close to a year. Might also be 31 Jan to 1 Dec, or 10 months and a day. It also could mean a bit over a year - it doesn't pay to treat our assumptions as gospel.
The same applies to GRRM's deliberately vague "8-9 months" time frame between Dany and Jon. That could easily be 7 months and a bit, or 10 months. He's cautioned people against trying to work this stuff out to closely because he hasn't worked it out that closely. I believe he said "8-9 months) because he knows Jon was at ToJ which Ned went to after the war ended, and Dany was conceived not long before the Sack at the end of the war. I suspect he didn't allow quite enough time post-Sack for Ned to get to ToJ, but it will all fit within the language if we remember its not all strictly accurate.

This is also the case for the Siege of Storm's End, quite explicitly so. 

Quote

Ned found it hard to imagine what could frighten Stannis Baratheon, who had once held Storm's End through a year of siege

Quote

Lord Stannis and a small garrison had held the castle for close to a year, against the great host of the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne

Ned's "year" is Cressen's "close to a year". That could easily be 10 months, or 12, or anywhere between.

So lets say the war is 11 months and so is the siege (which starts after the war starts and finishes after the war ends) and everything is +/- anything up to 6 weeks, maybe even a little more.

Gulltown - month 0
Summerhall, month 0.5-1
Ashford, month 1-2
Start of Siege of Storms End - 1-2
Battle of Bells, month 2 - 2.5
Ned marries Cat, Robb is conceived month 3
...minor battles, skirmishes, diplomacy, additional forces being raised
Dany conceived 10.5
Trident 10.5-11
Sack 11 - War rages close to a year
End of Siege of Storms End 11.5 - Stannis holds Storms End for "close to a year" (10.5 months or so)
Jon born/ToJ - 12 - Jon and Robb roughly same age
Dany born 20 8 months after Jon

 

 

[SFDanny]

16 hours ago, Megorova said:

Dany was born 9 months after Rhaella went to Dragonstone. Pregnancy lasts 40 weeks, that's a bit over 9 month (9 month and 10 more days).

Of course, not all pregnancies are the same length. But 40 weeks is a good approximation of a full term pregnancy. Forty weeks or 280 days is certainly what real world doctors use to figure due dates, but when was the last time you knew someone to deliver on their due date? Not my two kids. Martin's use of nine moons to mean a full term pregnancy is certainly a short hand way of his approximation of a full term delivery. 

16 hours ago, Megorova said:

Jon was born 8-9 months before Dany. So either Jon was born at the time when KL was sacked (that's if he is 9 months older than Dany), or he was born after the Sack of KL (if he is less than 9 months older than Dany). It is known, that after events at KL, Ned Stark first went to Storm's End, and from there to the Tower of Joy, where he witnessed Lyanna's final moments in the bed of blood. One month is enough to travel from KL to Storm' End and to the Tower.

We also know, that when Dany found out about her pregnancy, it was the day of her 14th birthday. Sometime after this, the same information was revealed to Ned and Robert at KL. At this time Robb is still 14. And we know how much time approximately has passed between Ned finding out about Dany's pregnancy, Ned's execution, and Robb gathering his bannermen at Winterfell, when he turned 15. Go thru that info, and it becomes obvious, that Jon's birthday is earlier than Robb's.

The actual quote gives it as "eight or nine months or thereabouts" I believe. The "thereabouts" is important. This is an approximation. The best we can say is it isn't 10 months and it's not 7 months, but somewhere in-between. Lots of wriggle room for the author.

Travel times are notoriously unreliable in Martin's world. People travel much faster than they should be able to at times. Which means a month to the Tower of Joy might be possible. it also might be longer. Many people have suggested Lyanna dies of puerperal fever which means something like eleven days from onset to death. It is only conjecture, however, and Martin isn't bound by real world realities.

We have a problem with the "at this time Robb is still 14." No he is not. We know Jon is 15 when Yoren arrives in King's Landing because he has already turned 15 before Yoren and Tyrion leave the Wall. We know because of the quotes in my first post that Robb's nameday is celebrated before Jon's. That we first read Robb is fifteen is when we meet Osha, but this doesn't mean he just turned that age - this is well before Robb gathers his bannermen, btw. It just means this is the first time it is commented on in the books. Because Yoren arrives in King's Landing before the news of Dany's pregnancy is reported and debated in the small council this places Bran's, Robb's and Jon's namedays in 298 before that date. In fact we can place all three namedays before Tyrion and Yoren leave the Wall.

FYI, it also places Maergery's after that date because we are told by the disguised Varys during his encounter with Illyrio in the dungeons of the Red Keep that she is still fourteen. which is one reason why we can be certain these all fall in 298. There are others that show this as well. The revised TWoI&F edition has Robert's reign ending in 298, meaning all the events between Joffrey's 12th nameday and Robert's death take place in that 298 AC.

[wia]

8 hours ago, corbon said:

Err, yes. Catelyn was carrying his child at the time he supposedly dishonoured her, the time he (supposedly) conceived Jon.
You seem to be putting these things tightly into two separate boxes, but they are interwoven. "In the sight of gods and men"  is the acknowledgment , which for him is a dishonour (because he's lying to and hurting Cat) but its not actually the dishonour to everyone else. Acknowledging a bastard is pretty honourable actually (edit: unless its a lie), its conceiving the bastard that is dishonourable. Acknowledging it is owning up your error and doing the right thing by the child instead of hiding your dishonour and mistreating the child.

The two are intermixed. 
Ned says he dishonoured Catelyn (privately when he acknowledged Jon, publicly believed to be when he fathered Jon). Robert basically says "don't be so hard on yourself, you barely knew your wife then" (Ned and Cat had never met before their wedding, so Ned married a stranger, filled her belly, left for the war, all within days or weeks) and Ned basically says back "it doesn't matter, she was my wife, pregnant, and I shouldn't have fathered a bastard"

First, lets be clear. The info in the text in generally presented in casual language between people, not hard and fast dates. As such, there is weeks or even months of flexibility in there. January to January is "a year" but may be 11 months and 1 day.

Generally this means slightly less than a year, or else it would be "a year", "over a year", "at least a year" or similar. So lets say (never mind the correct months) Jan to Dec. Thats close to a year. Might also be 31 Jan to 1 Dec, or 10 months and a day. It also could mean a bit over a year - it doesn't pay to treat our assumptions as gospel.
The same applies to GRRM's deliberately vague "8-9 months" time frame between Dany and Jon. That could easily be 7 months and a bit, or 10 months. He's cautioned people against trying to work this stuff out to closely because he hasn't worked it out that closely. I believe he said "8-9 months) because he knows Jon was at ToJ which Ned went to after the war ended, and Dany was conceived not long before the Sack at the end of the war. I suspect he didn't allow quite enough time post-Sack for Ned to get to ToJ, but it will all fit within the language if we remember its not all strictly accurate.

This is also the case for the Siege of Storm's End, quite explicitly so. 

Ned's "year" is Cressen's "close to a year". That could easily be 10 months, or 12, or anywhere between.

So lets say the war is 11 months and so is the siege (which starts after the war starts and finishes after the war ends) and everything is +/- anything up to 6 weeks, maybe even a little more.

Gulltown - month 0
Summerhall, month 0.5-1
Ashford, month 1-2
Start of Siege of Storms End - 1-2
Battle of Bells, month 2 - 2.5
Ned marries Cat, Robb is conceived month 3
...minor battles, skirmishes, diplomacy, additional forces being raised
Dany conceived 10.5
Trident 10.5-11
Sack 11 - War rages close to a year
End of Siege of Storms End 11.5 - Stannis holds Storms End for "close to a year" (10.5 months or so)
Jon born/ToJ - 12 - Jon and Robb roughly same age
Dany born 20 8 months after Jon

 

 

So you have to add an extra month no matter what, whether you call it 13 or 0.

And should the war happen to be less than 11 months, like 9 or 10, which it absolutely could be within the timeline we're given and without a need for any flexibility, there's just no way it works.

[Megorova]

18 hours ago, Lady Barbrey said:

So are you saying Jon was born a month before Ned found him and Lyanna?

 

No. Jon was born approximately one month after the Sack of King's Landing. If the age difference between Jon and Dany is closer to 8 months than to 9 months, then Ned came to the Tower, just in time to see Lyanna for the last time, and she died immediately after Jon's birth.

 

 

[corbon]

7 hours ago, wia said:

So you have to add an extra month no matter what, whether you call it 13 or 0.

And should the war happen to be less than 11 months, like 9 or 10, which it absolutely could be within the timeline we're given and without a need for any flexibility, there's just no way it works.

0 is not an extra month, its the start of the first month. The war starts at Gulltown, or a few days before, and ends at the Sack. I can't draw a timeline here, need to work with discrete values. What it should be is like a project management chart with lots of overlapping ranges that start and stop at various times and each event a discrete point within that range. Some points must follow one another, others could be before or after.
And yes, a 10 month war could work. Not as well, we'd need to squeeze Gulltown to Battle of the Bells into 6-10 weeks, but those are all predicated on the movements and actions of Robert, who was famous for moving faster and marching harder than anyone else.

But, despite Martin's own warning about parsing this too closely because he hasn't got it sorted out exactly and just tells the story as he sees fit over decades, despite all the inaccuracies involved with the language and generalised descriptions of events over a decade ago, after asking me for a timeline that works, you are going to quibble and say "if X and Y stretch or squeeze the wrong way, there's just no way it works?

Ok then.

[Starkz]

19 hours ago, wia said:

Not sure what info in the books or that GRRM personally provided are you referencing. I certainly have never came across it.

GRRM said it's 8-9 months before Dany which is Trident-Sack + 1 month maximum. That gives you months 11 and 12, and that's assuming the war lasted 11 months, which is, again, us getting the maximum numbers and stretching it. But then how in your theory the Siege of Storm's End could've also lasted less that a year is a mystery.

Are we suppose to take what GRRM said in face value in regards to this topic though? Jon’s parentage is one of GRRM biggest secrets and twists, GRRM goal may be to mislead us into believing things that are not true in regards to this topic until he reveals such in the books.

[The Ned's Little Girl]

26 minutes ago, Starkz said:

Are we suppose to take what GRRM said in face value in regards to this topic though? Jon’s parentage is one of GRRM biggest secrets and twists, GRRM goal may be to mislead us into believing things that are not true in regards to this topic until he reveals such in the books.

Yes, we should take what GRRM says at face value. He doesn't mislead his readers. If he doesn't want to reveal something, he usually just says "keep reading" or something to that same effect.

[wia]

57 minutes ago, Starkz said:

Are we suppose to take what GRRM said in face value in regards to this topic though? Jon’s parentage is one of GRRM biggest secrets and twists, GRRM goal may be to mislead us into believing things that are not true in regards to this topic until he reveals such in the books.

You mean that we are supposed to question the time of Jon's birth that he provided? - He usually tends to refuse answering questions that he doesn't want to answer, so I don't see why he'd have to answer any with a lie tbh. Unless there's history of him saying something and it turning to be a lie later in the books that I'm not aware of?

 

2 hours ago, corbon said:

0 is not an extra month, its the start of the first month. The war starts at Gulltown, or a few days before, and ends at the Sack. I can't draw a timeline here, need to work with discrete values. What it should be is like a project management chart with lots of overlapping ranges that start and stop at various times and each event a discrete point within that range. Some points must follow one another, others could be before or after.
And yes, a 10 month war could work. Not as well, we'd need to squeeze Gulltown to Battle of the Bells into 6-10 weeks, but those are all predicated on the movements and actions of Robert, who was famous for moving faster and marching harder than anyone else.

But, despite Martin's own warning about parsing this too closely because he hasn't got it sorted out exactly and just tells the story as he sees fit over decades, despite all the inaccuracies involved with the language and generalised descriptions of events over a decade ago, after asking me for a timeline that works, you are going to quibble and say "if X and Y stretch or squeeze the wrong way, there's just no way it works?

Ok then.

I'm gonna say that you still have Robert taking Gulltoun, then going all the way to Summerhall (and before that he's probably have to assemble his forces too, but let's skip that in your favour), going back to Storm's end to make the lords he just defeated into friends, then going to Ashford to lose to Randyll Tarly and making it all the way up to Stoney Sept for Battle of the Bells happening in 2,5 months. I guess Robert had a veeery fast army that, after being combined with Stark, Tully and Arryn army, was busy with minor battles, skirmishes, diplomacy and raising additional forces for 10 months while Lyanna was apparently being raped, instead of perhaps marching on King's Landing. Ok, then.

[The Bard of Banefort]

I haven't read the books in a while now, but the impression I got was that Jon was a few months older, which further added to the tension between him and Cat. Aside from looking more like a Stark than Robb, Jon being older than Robb could be used in his favor should he or his children ever try to challenge the legitimate Stark children for Winterfell. As far as I can recall, however, it's never confirmed or denied one way or another. 

[Megorova]

@Starkz@wia

20 hours ago, wia said:

I'm gonna say that you still have Robert taking Gulltoun, then going all the way to Summerhall (and before that he's probably have to assemble his forces too, but let's skip that in your favour), going back to Storm's end to make the lords he just defeated into friends, then going to Ashford to lose to Randyll Tarly and making it all the way up to Stoney Sept for Battle of the Bells happening in 2,5 months. I guess Robert had a veeery fast army that, after being combined with Stark, Tully and Arryn army, was busy with minor battles, skirmishes, diplomacy and raising additional forces for 10 months while Lyanna was apparently being raped, instead of perhaps marching on King's Landing. Ok, then.

I made travel time calculations in another thread. No need to read all of it, just read a summary below spoiler.

Spoiler

Lyanna and Brandon were on the way to Riverrun, though probably they departed there from different locations. Most likely when Rickard heard about Lyanna's disappearance, and Brandon went to KL, at that time Rickard was already at Riverrun. And it's unlikely, that he waited to get a personal invitation from Aerys, until he went after his son to KL.

I found info on speed of travel on horseback, thru various types of terrains, how far a horse can travel, miles per day:

https://www.cartographersguild.com/showthread.php?t=19730

On Roads / trails
Level or rolling terrain: 40
Hilly terrain: 30
Mountainous terrain: 20

Off-Road (or unkempt trails etc)
Level/rolling grasslands: 30
Hilly grasslands: 25
Level/rolling forest/thick scrub: 20
Very hilly forest/thick scrub: 15

Un-blazed Mountain passes: 10
Marshland: 10

Distance from Riverrun to KL is 770 miles, by River Road and King Road.

770/40 = 19,25 days. From September 23 + 19,25 days - 19th day will be October 12 and 19,25th day will be October 13.

October 12-13th - Rickard arrived to KL.

What a coincidence! this is also an important date from the War of Roses (The battle of Ludford Bridge (12-13 October 1459) was a humiliating defeat that appeared to have ended any hopes of a Yorkist victory in the Wars of the Roses.)

What happened on September 23rd -"Salisbury then ran into Audley and Dudley at Blore Heath in Shropshire (23 September 1459), but defeated the larger Lancastrian army and was able continue on his way south."

Rhaegar ran into Lyanna, and after that went south, same as Salisbury during War of Roses.

On 5/15/2018 at 6:15 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Executions galore 

This doesn't require much time. All of them were executed in one day. Next.

On 5/15/2018 at 6:15 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Battle of Gulltown, Ned flees North

Direct line between KL and The Eyrie is 600 miles. Furthest castle of The Vale from The Eyrie is Baelish Keep - 470 miles.

Speed of pigeons:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homing_pigeon

"Their average flying speed over moderate 640 km (400 miles) distances is around 80 km/h (50 miles per hour)." There are many birds, that are much faster than that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_birds_by_flight_speed

It is known from ASOIAF-books, that ravens are bigger, faster and have higher endurance than pigeons, that's why raven-mail is preferable method of communication in that world.

Let's take as an average speed for ravens 50 mph.

KL -> Eyrie - 600 miles/50 = 12 hours.

I don't think, that it took Jon much time to decide what to do, whether to complay with Aerys' demand, or to send ravens to his own bannermen all over The Vale.

Eyrie -> Baelish Keep and other castles, 470/50 = 9,4 hours.

Thus less than 24 hours after Rickard's and Brandon's execution, entire Vale already knew, that they are going to rebel against Targaryens.

During winter The Vale is unaccessible thru mountain trails, so the only way to get out of it is by sea-route. So they went from The Eyrie to Gulltown, probably thru Redford, 370 miles thru mountainous terrain, 370/20 = 18,5 days.

While Robert and Jon Arryn went to fight in Gulltown (and that battle ended fast), Ned went thru the Moon mountains and The Fingers, from where he was transported thru The Bite by local fisherman. That's why some people thought, that Jon's mother was some fisherman's daughter. Because Jon was conceived at approximately that time plus minus a month or two, when Ned was going to The North from The Vale. By that time Gulltown was already under control of rebels, and Robert sailed to Storm's End.

812 nautical miles. Average speed of medieval ship is 5 miles per hour. 

http://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Journals/TAPA/82/Speed_under_Sail_of_Ancient_Ships*.html

Under favourable winds Robert arrived to Storm's End, after 7 days of sea-travel. With unfavourable winds, the speed could be 1,5 knots. 1 knot is 1,15 miles per hour. So minimum speed is 1,725 mph. The ship can sail 24 hours per day, unlike horses it doesn't need to rest. So under unfavourable winds, it would have taken Robert 20 days to sail from Gulltown to Storm's End. Obviously that by the time when Robert was already home, Ned was still on the way North, whether Robert arrived home after 7 or 20 days of travel.

On 5/15/2018 at 6:15 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Raising Armies and calling banners

I'll get back to this a bit later, first let's go thru calculation of distances.

On 5/15/2018 at 6:15 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Battles of Summerhall

Robert won those battles in a single day.

300 miles from Storm's End to Summerhall, thru mountainous terrain/Dornish Marches. 300/20 = 15 days.

On 5/15/2018 at 6:15 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Siege of Storms End starts

Battle of Ashford

Only it happened in opposite order.

Robert left Stannis to command in Storm's End, and then went to Ashford.

Summerhall is located nearly in the middle.

Storm's End 300 miles - Summerhall - 270 miles Ashford.

So it doesn't make sense, if after only one day of battle at Summerhall, Robert went all the way back to Storm's End, to later go back thru Summerhall again, to Ashford. It's obvious, that he went to Ashford from Summerhall, 270/20 = 13,5 days.

There he fought against troops of Randyll Tarly, and was wounded. Mace Tyrell also was bringing his troops to fight against rebels, so Robert had to withdraw from that battle, and went to Stoney Sept in Riverlands. And while he was going there, Mace went with his troops from Ashford to Storm's End, to lay a siege, that was lifted by Ned, close to a year after that.

Ashford -> Stoney Sept - 570 miles thru hilly grasslands, 570/25 = 22,8 days.

Mace Tyrell went same distance, 570 miles to Storm's End (270 miles to Summerhall, and 300 miles from there to Storm's End), though his troops were going thru Dornish Marches, so they were going slower that Robert's forces, that went to Riverlands. 570/20 = 28,5 days. Thus by the time, when Mace arrived to Storm's End, nearly a week passed since Robert arrived to Stoney Sept.

Battle at Ashford was last battle of 282. By the time when Mace arrived to Storm's End, and Robert arrived to Stoney Sept, it was already year 283.

Also distance between Highgarden and Ashford is the same as between Summerhall and Ashford - 270 miles thru mountainous terrain. So probably when Robert defeated those lords at Summerhall, Mace marched his troops towards Ashford, same as Robert. Though he departed later than Robert, thus the reason why he was a bit late for that battle, and Randyll Tarly mostly won with his troops alone.

On 5/15/2018 at 6:15 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Battle of the Bells

This battle happened in 283.

15 January 283.

Meanwhile during the War of Roses "Warwick now took the initiative. First he sent a raiding force across to Sandwich (15 January 1460). This force captured Rivers, his wife and his son and the fleet and took them to Calais. With the new ships at his disposal Warwick decided to visit York in Ireland. The two men probably came up with a plan for a two-pronged invasion of England, although there would be a three month gap between Warwick's invasion of the south of England and York's return from Ireland." 

Ned's and Robert's plan was double wedding to Tully sisters.

For the wedding they went to Riverrun <- Stoney Sept - 235 miles thru hilly grasslands, 235/25 = 9,4 days.

Then from there to Trident, by River Road, 335 miles, 335/40 = 8,4 days.

From Trident Ned went to KL - 435 miles/40 = 10,9 days.

From KL to Storm's End - same 435 miles = 10,9 days.

From Storm's End to the Tower of Joy - either 570 miles thru land-route (570/20 = 28,5 days), or by sea-route (either around Stormlands 1045 nautical miles, 1045/5/24 = 8,7 days + 35 more miles thru untrailed marshlands, 10 miles per day, 3,5 days; 12,2 days in total; or 170 miles to Grandview, 170/20 = 8,5 days, from there by ship or boat 495 nautical miles, 495/5/24 = 4,13 days + 3,5 days thru mountains; 16,13 days in total).

So it took Ned approximately 2-4 weeks (12-29 days) to get to the Tower of Joy, depending on the route he took.

Now let's add together all those travel days, starting from Rickard departing from Riverrun, and ending with Ned finding Lyanna:

Riverrun to KL - 19,25 days

The Eyrie to Gulltown - 18,5 days

Gulltown to Storm's End - 7-20 days (based on winds)

Storm's End to Summerhall - 15 days

Summerhall to Ashford - 13,5 days

Ashford to Stoney Sept - 22,8 days

Stoney Sept to Riverrun - 9,4 days

Riverrun to Trident - 8,4 days

Trident to KL - 10,9 days

KL to Storm's End - 10,9 days

Storm's End to Tower of Joy - 12-29 days.

148-178 days. 5-6 months of Rebellion's duration was spent on traveling from one location to another. Obviously, that we also need to add here pauses between battles, and time for various preparations, like raising armies and calling banners.

I previously went thru another calculation, that also included other information, aside from distances and travel time. Based on that calculation, the Rebellion lasted 9,5-10 months. Beginning from 15 October 282 (when Jon Arryn called his bannermen) and ending in early September of 283 (the Sack of KL happened on August 25 or a few days later).

Lyanna was kidnapped on 23 September.

Jon was conceived on Christmas Eve, on night between December 23 and 24.

Rhaegar and Lyanna had two months of time, in which they could have went either via land-route from Harrenhall to Starfall (1300 miles thru various terrains, first 800 miles they could have went by King's Road and then Roseroad, 800/40 =  20 days, and then thru mountains 500/20 = 25 days, 45 days + resting time). Or they could have went all the way by Roseroad to Oldtown, where they got married in a Starry Sept, and from there took a ship to Starfall. Or could be that Rhaegar, prior kidnapping Lyanna, sailed on one of his ships thru Blackwater Rush to God's Eye. From there on horse to King's Road, where he kidnapped Lyanna. And then they went thru the river, to Blackwater Bay. And from there sailed to Oldtown, where they got married. And then to Starfall, where they were staying, untill Gerold Hightower arrived there, to take Rhaegar back to KL.

If Jon was conceived on Christmas Eve, then he was born on 25 September 283. Ned arrived to Tower of Joy 23-30 days after the Sack (which happened in interval between August 26 - September 2). Dany was conceived a few days prior the Sack of KL, on August 24 or 25, and was born 40 weeks later, either on May 31 or June 1. Which makes Jon 8 or so months older than Dany.

Though all this calculations are approximate.

Short summary:

Taking of Gulltown -> (Gulltown to Storm's End - 7-20 days (based on winds)

Storm's End to Summerhall - 15 days

Summerhall to Ashford - 13,5 days

Ashford to Stoney Sept - 22,8 days) <- The Battle of the Bells

Between Robert taking Gulltown and The Battle of the Bells passed between 58 and 72 days. So 2,5 months is a good estimation.

[wia]

30 minutes ago, Megorova said:

@Starkz@wia

I made travel time calculations in another thread. No need to read all of it, just read a summary below spoiler.

  Reveal hidden contents

Lyanna and Brandon were on the way to Riverrun, though probably they departed there from different locations. Most likely when Rickard heard about Lyanna's disappearance, and Brandon went to KL, at that time Rickard was already at Riverrun. And it's unlikely, that he waited to get a personal invitation from Aerys, until he went after his son to KL.

I found info on speed of travel on horseback, thru various types of terrains, how far a horse can travel, miles per day:

https://www.cartographersguild.com/showthread.php?t=19730

On Roads / trails
Level or rolling terrain: 40
Hilly terrain: 30
Mountainous terrain: 20

Off-Road (or unkempt trails etc)
Level/rolling grasslands: 30
Hilly grasslands: 25
Level/rolling forest/thick scrub: 20
Very hilly forest/thick scrub: 15

Un-blazed Mountain passes: 10
Marshland: 10

Distance from Riverrun to KL is 770 miles, by River Road and King Road.

770/40 = 19,25 days. From September 23 + 19,25 days - 19th day will be October 12 and 19,25th day will be October 13.

October 12-13th - Rickard arrived to KL.

What a coincidence! this is also an important date from the War of Roses (The battle of Ludford Bridge (12-13 October 1459) was a humiliating defeat that appeared to have ended any hopes of a Yorkist victory in the Wars of the Roses.)

What happened on September 23rd -"Salisbury then ran into Audley and Dudley at Blore Heath in Shropshire (23 September 1459), but defeated the larger Lancastrian army and was able continue on his way south."

Rhaegar ran into Lyanna, and after that went south, same as Salisbury during War of Roses.

This doesn't require much time. All of them were executed in one day. Next.

Direct line between KL and The Eyrie is 600 miles. Furthest castle of The Vale from The Eyrie is Baelish Keep - 470 miles.

Speed of pigeons:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homing_pigeon

"Their average flying speed over moderate 640 km (400 miles) distances is around 80 km/h (50 miles per hour)." There are many birds, that are much faster than that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_birds_by_flight_speed

It is known from ASOIAF-books, that ravens are bigger, faster and have higher endurance than pigeons, that's why raven-mail is preferable method of communication in that world.

Let's take as an average speed for ravens 50 mph.

KL -> Eyrie - 600 miles/50 = 12 hours.

I don't think, that it took Jon much time to decide what to do, whether to complay with Aerys' demand, or to send ravens to his own bannermen all over The Vale.

Eyrie -> Baelish Keep and other castles, 470/50 = 9,4 hours.

Thus less than 24 hours after Rickard's and Brandon's execution, entire Vale already knew, that they are going to rebel against Targaryens.

During winter The Vale is unaccessible thru mountain trails, so the only way to get out of it is by sea-route. So they went from The Eyrie to Gulltown, probably thru Redford, 370 miles thru mountainous terrain, 370/20 = 18,5 days.

While Robert and Jon Arryn went to fight in Gulltown (and that battle ended fast), Ned went thru the Moon mountains and The Fingers, from where he was transported thru The Bite by local fisherman. That's why some people thought, that Jon's mother was some fisherman's daughter. Because Jon was conceived at approximately that time plus minus a month or two, when Ned was going to The North from The Vale. By that time Gulltown was already under control of rebels, and Robert sailed to Storm's End.

812 nautical miles. Average speed of medieval ship is 5 miles per hour. 

http://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Journals/TAPA/82/Speed_under_Sail_of_Ancient_Ships*.html

Under favourable winds Robert arrived to Storm's End, after 7 days of sea-travel. With unfavourable winds, the speed could be 1,5 knots. 1 knot is 1,15 miles per hour. So minimum speed is 1,725 mph. The ship can sail 24 hours per day, unlike horses it doesn't need to rest. So under unfavourable winds, it would have taken Robert 20 days to sail from Gulltown to Storm's End. Obviously that by the time when Robert was already home, Ned was still on the way North, whether Robert arrived home after 7 or 20 days of travel.

I'll get back to this a bit later, first let's go thru calculation of distances.

Robert won those battles in a single day.

300 miles from Storm's End to Summerhall, thru mountainous terrain/Dornish Marches. 300/20 = 15 days.

Only it happened in opposite order.

Robert left Stannis to command in Storm's End, and then went to Ashford.

Summerhall is located nearly in the middle.

Storm's End 300 miles - Summerhall - 270 miles Ashford.

So it doesn't make sense, if after only one day of battle at Summerhall, Robert went all the way back to Storm's End, to later go back thru Summerhall again, to Ashford. It's obvious, that he went to Ashford from Summerhall, 270/20 = 13,5 days.

There he fought against troops of Randyll Tarly, and was wounded. Mace Tyrell also was bringing his troops to fight against rebels, so Robert had to withdraw from that battle, and went to Stoney Sept in Riverlands. And while he was going there, Mace went with his troops from Ashford to Storm's End, to lay a siege, that was lifted by Ned, close to a year after that.

Ashford -> Stoney Sept - 570 miles thru hilly grasslands, 570/25 = 22,8 days.

Mace Tyrell went same distance, 570 miles to Storm's End (270 miles to Summerhall, and 300 miles from there to Storm's End), though his troops were going thru Dornish Marches, so they were going slower that Robert's forces, that went to Riverlands. 570/20 = 28,5 days. Thus by the time, when Mace arrived to Storm's End, nearly a week passed since Robert arrived to Stoney Sept.

Battle at Ashford was last battle of 282. By the time when Mace arrived to Storm's End, and Robert arrived to Stoney Sept, it was already year 283.

Also distance between Highgarden and Ashford is the same as between Summerhall and Ashford - 270 miles thru mountainous terrain. So probably when Robert defeated those lords at Summerhall, Mace marched his troops towards Ashford, same as Robert. Though he departed later than Robert, thus the reason why he was a bit late for that battle, and Randyll Tarly mostly won with his troops alone.

This battle happened in 283.

15 January 283.

Meanwhile during the War of Roses "Warwick now took the initiative. First he sent a raiding force across to Sandwich (15 January 1460). This force captured Rivers, his wife and his son and the fleet and took them to Calais. With the new ships at his disposal Warwick decided to visit York in Ireland. The two men probably came up with a plan for a two-pronged invasion of England, although there would be a three month gap between Warwick's invasion of the south of England and York's return from Ireland." 

Ned's and Robert's plan was double wedding to Tully sisters.

For the wedding they went to Riverrun <- Stoney Sept - 235 miles thru hilly grasslands, 235/25 = 9,4 days.

Then from there to Trident, by River Road, 335 miles, 335/40 = 8,4 days.

From Trident Ned went to KL - 435 miles/40 = 10,9 days.

From KL to Storm's End - same 435 miles = 10,9 days.

From Storm's End to the Tower of Joy - either 570 miles thru land-route (570/20 = 28,5 days), or by sea-route (either around Stormlands 1045 nautical miles, 1045/5/24 = 8,7 days + 35 more miles thru untrailed marshlands, 10 miles per day, 3,5 days; 12,2 days in total; or 170 miles to Grandview, 170/20 = 8,5 days, from there by ship or boat 495 nautical miles, 495/5/24 = 4,13 days + 3,5 days thru mountains; 16,13 days in total).

So it took Ned approximately 2-4 weeks (12-29 days) to get to the Tower of Joy, depending on the route he took.

Now let's add together all those travel days, starting from Rickard departing from Riverrun, and ending with Ned finding Lyanna:

Riverrun to KL - 19,25 days

The Eyrie to Gulltown - 18,5 days

Gulltown to Storm's End - 7-20 days (based on winds)

Storm's End to Summerhall - 15 days

Summerhall to Ashford - 13,5 days

Ashford to Stoney Sept - 22,8 days

Stoney Sept to Riverrun - 9,4 days

Riverrun to Trident - 8,4 days

Trident to KL - 10,9 days

KL to Storm's End - 10,9 days

Storm's End to Tower of Joy - 12-29 days.

148-178 days. 5-6 months of Rebellion's duration was spent on traveling from one location to another. Obviously, that we also need to add here pauses between battles, and time for various preparations, like raising armies and calling banners.

I previously went thru another calculation, that also included other information, aside from distances and travel time. Based on that calculation, the Rebellion lasted 9,5-10 months. Beginning from 15 October 282 (when Jon Arryn called his bannermen) and ending in early September of 283 (the Sack of KL happened on August 25 or a few days later).

Lyanna was kidnapped on 23 September.

Jon was conceived on Christmas Eve, on night between December 23 and 24.

Rhaegar and Lyanna had two months of time, in which they could have went either via land-route from Harrenhall to Starfall (1300 miles thru various terrains, first 800 miles they could have went by King's Road and then Roseroad, 800/40 =  20 days, and then thru mountains 500/20 = 25 days, 45 days + resting time). Or they could have went all the way by Roseroad to Oldtown, where they got married in a Starry Sept, and from there took a ship to Starfall. Or could be that Rhaegar, prior kidnapping Lyanna, sailed on one of his ships thru Blackwater Rush to God's Eye. From there on horse to King's Road, where he kidnapped Lyanna. And then they went thru the river, to Blackwater Bay. And from there sailed to Oldtown, where they got married. And then to Starfall, where they were staying, untill Gerold Hightower arrived there, to take Rhaegar back to KL.

If Jon was conceived on Christmas Eve, then he was born on 25 September 283. Ned arrived to Tower of Joy 23-30 days after the Sack (which happened in interval between August 26 - September 2). Dany was conceived a few days prior the Sack of KL, on August 24 or 25, and was born 40 weeks later, either on May 31 or June 1. Which makes Jon 8 or so months older than Dany.

Though all this calculations are approximate.

Short summary:

Taking of Gulltown -> (Gulltown to Storm's End - 7-20 days (based on winds)

Storm's End to Summerhall - 15 days

Summerhall to Ashford - 13,5 days

Ashford to Stoney Sept - 22,8 days) <- The Battle of the Bells

Between Robert taking Gulltown and The Battle of the Bells passed between 58 and 72 days. So 2,5 months is a good estimation.

It's Storm's End to Summerhall => Summerhall to Storm's End => Storm's End to Ashford. Which is 15+15+15+13,5 = 58,5 days instead of 28,5 in your calculation. And that's with us assuming that Stannis already called Robert's banners and they have already assembled at Storm's End when he arrived from Gulltown (though TWOIAF states that he sailed to Storm's End call his banners btw).

There's this lovely file that has distances between major location in Westeros and travelling time for various parties: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZsY3lcDDtTdBWp1Gx6mfkdtZT6-Gk0kdTGeSC_Dj7WM/edit#gid=1
And you're looking at army travelling time, an army with foot soldiers and a supply train most probably, not horseback. I remember Tarly having won a battle with a van, don't remember Robert being mentioned of doing that, but that just might be my memory? - Was he mentioned with horse only?

And there's just no way that, should you try and create a timeline of Robert's Rebellion without Jon and Robb's ages in mind, that you'd come up with an unexplained 8 months of Robert doing miscellaneous things after winning a big battle.

[The Commentator]

On 10/13/2018 at 6:27 PM, 867-5309 said:

Jon is older than Robb.  That is why the maester had to invent some bull about bastard boys growing up faster than legitimate boys.  It was cover up to hide the fact that Jon is older.  Lyanna was likely already pregnant when she disappeared.