How does nobody spot that Jeyne Poole isn’t Arya Stark?

[Angel Eyes]

So Jeyne Poole is impersonating Arya to cement support for the Boltons since the Lannisters have provided her. But there are a few problems: 

• The primary Stark phenotype is brown hair and grey eyes, which Arya follows. Jeyne has brown eyes, which doesn’t match the Stark phenotype. Eye colour doesn’t change overnight. If a Reek can spot a Jeyne Poole at 10 paces, other people can.
• Arya is 11 and unflowered, while Jeyne is 13 and flowered. How does Ramsay get away with bedding an 11-year-old? And an 11-year-old in the Middle Ages with not particularly great nutrition to start developing most likely wouldn’t get pregnant... right? Sansa hadn’t flowered at 11, and she and Jeyne were the same age.
• “Arya” is oddly docile, considering that the real Arya is at first hot-tempered and then cold-blooded.

[Fire Eater]

Not everyone has been to WF regularly. Some like Mors Umber, up until ACoK, haven't visited in years, and when they did visit, it was briefly. Not everyone would recognize Arya. 

The biggest factor is that Bolton is in power with the backing of King's Landing, and no one wants to do anything that risks his wroth, so they just play along. 

[dmfn]

Jaime spots it, and I don't view him as a guy who pays much attention to children, including his own. So if a man as aloof as Jaime (who probably only saw Arya at Winterfell during his visit and probably paid her little mind) noticed Jeyne wasn't Arya, I'm sure others have too. Why they're keeping their mouths shut is the real question. And I guess the answer is that they are already plotting the overthrow of the Boltons, either installing the now-found Rickon as lord, or a legitimate Jon Stark as King in the North in accordance with Robb's will. 

[Lollygag]

Because Theon asks this all of the time and Arya alone of Ned’s kids looks like Ned, my impression is that a lot of people do and that they’re keeping it quiet. They impulsively declared Robb king before without thinking things through and paid. They learned and won’t make a move again until things are in place and it looks like the North is making moves to those ends.

They don’t even have a Stark available right now, so why play their hand?

 

[Nevets]

31 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

So Jeyne Poole is impersonating Arya to cement support for the Boltons since the Lannisters have provided her. But there are a few problems: 

• The primary Stark phenotype is brown hair and grey eyes, which Arya follows. Jeyne has brown eyes, which doesn’t match the Stark phenotype. Eye colour doesn’t change overnight. If a Reek can spot a Jeyne Poole at 10 paces, other people can.
• Arya is 11 and unflowered, while Jeyne is 13 and flowered. How does Ramsay get away with bedding an 11-year-old? And an 11-year-old in the Middle Ages with not particularly great nutrition to start developing most likely wouldn’t get pregnant... right? Sansa hadn’t flowered at 11, and she and Jeyne were the same age.
• “Arya” is oddly docile, considering that the real Arya is at first hot-tempered and then cold-blooded.

Because nobody present at Winterfell for the wedding is familiar with the facts you describe.  As descriptions go, it is probably "looks kind of like Jon, and is younger than Sansa who is younger than Robb, who is (or would be) 16."  As for her eye color, I have immediate family members I couldn't tell you the eye color of, so it is hardly surprising they don't know it doesn't match.

I doubt that they know her exact age.  Also, nobody in the North has seen her for over two years, and children can change in appearance quickly at that age. 

As for her personality, that can change, too, even more so than appearance. 

I think George has left his options open for either having someone recognize her, or not, depending on how he wants to play it

[Mat92]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

As for her personality, that can change, too, even more so than appearance. 

Exactly. Plus to everyone else, the story is that "Arya" has been held captive by her enemies for two years while she's had to hear about her father being beheaded, her brother and mother being murdered at the Red Wedding, etc. It's understandable that people would be so willing to believe her nature would change under these circumstances.

There's not really many people left that have directly had experience with Arya to know what she was like before anyway (outside of Theon/Reek). 

Plus what Cersei is doing is super dodgy - if "Arya" is marrying a newly legitimised Ramsey, that's probably enough to convince anyone who might be slightly suspicious. That's a dangerous play that could (and likely will) cost Cersei in the long run.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

3 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

So Jeyne Poole is impersonating Arya to cement support for the Boltons since the Lannisters have provided her. But there are a few problems: 

• The primary Stark phenotype is brown hair and grey eyes, which Arya follows. Jeyne has brown eyes, which doesn’t match the Stark phenotype. Eye colour doesn’t change overnight. If a Reek can spot a Jeyne Poole at 10 paces, other people can.
• Arya is 11 and unflowered, while Jeyne is 13 and flowered. How does Ramsay get away with bedding an 11-year-old? And an 11-year-old in the Middle Ages with not particularly great nutrition to start developing most likely wouldn’t get pregnant... right? Sansa hadn’t flowered at 11, and she and Jeyne were the same age.
• “Arya” is oddly docile, considering that the real Arya is at first hot-tempered and then cold-blooded.

If I were about to see the child of an acquaintance or friend that I hadn't seen in two years, I doubt my idea of what they look like would be accurate, and I'd probably believe they were who everyone said they were unless they were wildly different. Particularly if they were an adolescent.

Also, most of Ned and Robb's closest friends and allies, including many of the more powerful lords, the ones who may have seen Arya more than a handful of times, were killed or captured in the war.

However, at least some Northern lords probably do suspect she's a fake, but why shoot their mouth off? If anything, it's better in their opinion that it's not Ned's little girl getting raped by Ramsay. If they are plotting against the Boltons, they can save it and use it (if they need to) at an opportune time. If not, speaking up is a sure-fire way to end up as a cloak.

[Euron III Greyjoy]

I feel like most people have probably never seen Arya before, even those who did go to Winterfell before would've probably payed more attention to Sansa, with her being the eldest, "prettier", and more ladylike. Mors Umber didn't fully trust that it was her, that was why he questioned her on people working at Winterfell in the past. And then there is those ho probably don't believe Jeyne is Arya, but they are either too afraid to say anything, or it doesn't benefit them to spill the beans. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

Theon spends a good amount of time obsessing over Jeyne's eyes. They are neither Tully blue, nor are they Stark grey. Her eyes are brown.

If anyone could confirm Arya's identity, it think it might be Jonelle Cerwyn. Her brother was good friends with both Robb and Jon, the castle is also the nearest one to Winterfell, half a day's ride. She was present at Barrowton (at the same time as Jeyne) and signed that first letter Ramsay sent to Asha and Jon. If she's seen Jeyne, she might know the girl is a fraud.

[Bael's Bastard]

8 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

So Jeyne Poole is impersonating Arya to cement support for the Boltons since the Lannisters have provided her. But there are a few problems: 

• The primary Stark phenotype is brown hair and grey eyes, which Arya follows. Jeyne has brown eyes, which doesn’t match the Stark phenotype. Eye colour doesn’t change overnight. If a Reek can spot a Jeyne Poole at 10 paces, other people can.
• Arya is 11 and unflowered, while Jeyne is 13 and flowered. How does Ramsay get away with bedding an 11-year-old? And an 11-year-old in the Middle Ages with not particularly great nutrition to start developing most likely wouldn’t get pregnant... right? Sansa hadn’t flowered at 11, and she and Jeyne were the same age.
• “Arya” is oddly docile, considering that the real Arya is at first hot-tempered and then cold-blooded.

What makes you think that nobody spots that Jeyne isn't Arya?

Jaime does, and he had only met her for a brief period over a year prior.

The fact is, the Boltons don't care, because she need not really be Arya to be used as Arya.

And the other northern houses aren't in a position to dispute her identity with the Boltons or Lannisters, even if they knew or wanted to. Some/many northerners might have no idea what Arya is supposed to look like, or how old Arya is supposed to be. Some of them might not care either way.

[John Suburbs]

As mentioned above, I don't think any of the northern lords think this is the real Arya, which is fine with them because they can go along with the mummer's farce right up until they are ready to expose Bolton's legal hold on Winterfell as a sham.

But it also appears that not many people outside of Winterfell knew the Stark children to any great degree. Maybe it's because the distances are so vast that only the most immediate houses, like Manderly and Hornwood, made regular visits to Winterfell?

An even more interesting question would be why Roose Bolton did not recognize the real Arya when he had her. I know Ned kept the Boltons at an arm's length, but I can't believe he was completely shut out of Winterfell, and all the Stark children would be of great interest to any lord who is looking to marry into the ruling house someday.

11 hours ago, dmfn said:

Jaime spots it, and I don't view him as a guy who pays much attention to children, including his own. So if a man as aloof as Jaime (who probably only saw Arya at Winterfell during his visit and probably paid her little mind) noticed Jeyne wasn't Arya, I'm sure others have too. Why they're keeping their mouths shut is the real question. And I guess the answer is that they are already plotting the overthrow of the Boltons, either installing the now-found Rickon as lord, or a legitimate Jon Stark as King in the North in accordance with Robb's will. 

Jaime was out hunting for Arya in the Trident following Nymeria's attack on Joffrey, and he had orders to kill her if he found her. I'll bet he took notice of Arya after that.

[zandru]

12 hours ago, Mat92 said:

There's not really many people left that have directly had experience with Arya to know what she was like before anyway (outside of Theon/Reek). 

 

7 hours ago, EloImFizzy said:

I feel like most people have probably never seen Arya before, even those who did go to Winterfell before would've probably payed more attention to Sansa, with her being the eldest, "prettier", and more ladylike.

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

An even more interesting question would be why Roose Bolton did not recognize the real Arya when he had her.

I agree with all of these. Arya wasn't a social butterfly like Sansa, who craved being displayed to visiting lords and ladies, and as firstborn, had greatest value, much like the legitimate boy heirs. Arya would have been out by the stables, or in the yard watching arms practice, or climbing trees. She'd have been near invisible.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Jaime was out hunting for Arya in the Trident following Nymeria's attack on Joffrey, and he had orders to kill her if he found her. I'll bet he took notice of Arya after that.

Definitely! I'm sure that Arya made a point of being "found" only by Ned's men.

[Hugorfonics]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

As mentioned above, I don't think any of the northern lords think this is the real Arya, which is fine with them because they can go along with the mummer's farce right up until they are ready to expose Bolton's legal hold on Winterfell as a sham.

Wyman and others probably thinks shes fArya but he wants Rickon to lay his own claim, not fight Boltons. fArya at least looks like her father's kid, unlike any of Roberts kids, and they do fine for themselves.

The only way I see of truly disavowing fArya would be through Theon or Nymeria

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

But it also appears that not many people outside of Winterfell knew the Stark children to any great degree. Maybe it's because the distances are so vast that only the most immediate houses, like Manderly and Hornwood, made regular visits to Winterfell?

Did Manderly and Hornwood make regular visits? They met Bran, but that was during times of war, did they meet Ned and his kids on the regular like that? Probably not.

The kids would still be known from games like come into my castle, but their appearance would be unknown like Margery to Ned

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

An even more interesting question would be why Roose Bolton did not recognize the real Arya when he had her. I know Ned kept the Boltons at an arm's length, but I can't believe he was completely shut out of Winterfell, and all the Stark children would be of great interest to any lord who is looking to marry into the ruling house someday.

Even if Roose met them, a Lord like Bolton wouldnt degrade himself by staring at a servant like weasel

[John Suburbs]

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

The only way I see of truly disavowing fArya would be through Theon or Nymeria

Or Jon, or Sansa if she ever returns, or like you said, Rickon. There is also Littlefinger, who knows exactly who she is and may decide that revealing her identity plays to his advantage in some way.

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

Did Manderly and Hornwood make regular visits? They met Bran, but that was during times of war, did they meet Ned and his kids on the regular like that? Probably not.

The kids would still be known from games like come into my castle, but their appearance would be unknown like Margery to Ned

I'm thinking that all bannermen make regular pilgrimages to their lieges to settle disputes and discuss matters of import. Most likely this would happen during festivals and such. Lords with seats closer to Winterfell would go more often, of course. And they would certainly take note of the children since they are the means through which these lords can enhance their status in the realm by securing a Stark good-son or daughter.

Ned and Margaery is not a good comparison here because Ned does not owe fealty to Mace, so he would have no reason to make such a long trip.

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

Even if Roose met them, a Lord like Bolton wouldnt degrade himself by staring at a servant like weasel

Well, they have several fairly lengthy face-to-face conversations where he is staring right at her:

Quote

The lord regarded her. Only his eyes moved; they were very pale, the color of ice. "How old are you, child?" ...

Quote

She should have gone, silent as a mouse, but something had hold of her. "My lord," she asked, "will you take me with you when you leave Harrenhal?"

He turned to stare at her, and from the look in his eyes it was as if his supper had just spoken to him. "Did I give you leave to question me, Nan?" ...

Also note that Arya frequently says "My lord" in his presence, which should have marked her as highborn according to Roose's later conversation with Theon. Of course, it is also possible that he only realized this bit of vernacular after Arya had fled.

But either way, I can't imagine Roose not recognizing Arya if he had met her previously. So the only conclusion I can reach is that his visits to Winterfell were few and far between, which makes sense since he is such a creepy, unpleasant dude.

[chrisdaw]

To declare Arya a fake is to declare war on the Boltons and Freys.

[HoodedCrow]

Some people do know but are biding their time. Some people know, sort of like Americans “know” about the Saudis killing a journalist or their nationals causing 9/11, or about a nonsensical war depending on crazy assertions about WMD necessitating a war with Iraq. What do you do about false but propagandized info in the presence of might and money?

[Hugorfonics]

12 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Or Jon, or Sansa if she ever returns, or like you said, Rickon. There is also Littlefinger, who knows exactly who she is and may decide that revealing her identity plays to his advantage in some way.

Jon is clearly not on Bolton side, his word could be interpreted as a lie to destabilize his enemy. Rickon too, and hes just a baby. Sansa is not really a person. Alayne may come without a wolf and say fAryas no Stark but she'll first have to convince them that she is. Petyrs word too, isnt nearly as good as Theons. 

17 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I'm thinking that all bannermen make regular pilgrimages to their lieges to settle disputes and discuss matters of import. Most likely this would happen during festivals and such. Lords with seats closer to Winterfell would go more often, of course. And they would certainly take note of the children since they are the means through which these lords can enhance their status in the realm by securing a Stark good-son or daughter.

What festivals? There are hardly any singers or tourneys in Winterfell. If Wyman and them had noticed Arya in the past I feel like itd have been brought up. Besides Jeyne was a regular face in Winterfell, hardly ever leaving Sansas side

20 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Well, they have several fairly lengthy face-to-face conversations where he is staring right at her:

Also note that Arya frequently says "My lord" in his presence, which should have marked her as highborn according to Roose's later conversation with Theon. Of course, it is also possible that he only realized this bit of vernacular after Arya had fled.

But either way, I can't imagine Roose not recognizing Arya if he had met her previously. So the only conclusion I can reach is that his visits to Winterfell were few and far between, which makes sense since he is such a creepy, unpleasant dude.

When Robb was describing Roose to Bran it seemed like this was the first time the kids met him, as they think back on Old Nans tales of skins.

But yea. My Lord vs m'lord. That definitely happend for a reason. Strange stuff

[The Mother of The Others]

They've been through a lot, or

They're happy to see the real one isn't suffering, or

They're Glad to know the Bolton's claim on winterfell will not be legitimate, so they are in no hurry to inform him about bride fakeness.

[dmfn]

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

As mentioned above, I don't think any of the northern lords think this is the real Arya, which is fine with them because they can go along with the mummer's farce right up until they are ready to expose Bolton's legal hold on Winterfell as a sham.

But it also appears that not many people outside of Winterfell knew the Stark children to any great degree. Maybe it's because the distances are so vast that only the most immediate houses, like Manderly and Hornwood, made regular visits to Winterfell?

An even more interesting question would be why Roose Bolton did not recognize the real Arya when he had her. I know Ned kept the Boltons at an arm's length, but I can't believe he was completely shut out of Winterfell, and all the Stark children would be of great interest to any lord who is looking to marry into the ruling house someday.

Jaime was out hunting for Arya in the Trident following Nymeria's attack on Joffrey, and he had orders to kill her if he found her. I'll bet he took notice of Arya after that.

I'm not sure about the killing part, but I wondered the same about Roose. Wondered even more after he made a Lyanna reference, considering people say Arya and Lyanna resembled each other. 

[Lynesse]

5 hours ago, The Mother of The Others said:

They're Glad to know the Bolton's claim on winterfell will not be legitimate, so they are in no hurry to inform him about bride fakeness.

This, basically.

I am certain at least some of the Northern lords at least suspect that FArya is a fake.

"She was hearing the lords bannermen speaking with her son's voice, she realized. Over the years, she had hosted many of them at Winterfell, and been welcomed with Ned to their own hearths and tables. She knew what sorts of men they were, each one." AGOT, Catelyn VII

"She had visited White Harbor with her father twice, but she knew King's Landing better." AFFC, Arya II