How does nobody spot that Jeyne Poole isn’t Arya Stark?

[wia]

2 minutes ago, zandru said:

Well, do people always notice eye color? Of Jeyne? Of Arya? Of Ned? or Cat? I'm thinking not. Also, brown is a dominant color (in humans), if I recall properly. It would be less weird to see a brown-eyed offspring of blue-eyed folks than a blue-eyed offspring from two pairs of brown eyes. Theon makes a big deal of Jeyne's eye color, but Theon knew both Arya and Jeyne well, and Theon has his own issues.

As for brown hair, well most Anglos have hair that's some shade of brown. Not a very distinguishing characteristic.

Because the text describes eye and hair colour numerous times and certain families has certain eye + hair colour combinations that stay the same for ages and everybody in the books knows about it. Characters are recognized simply from them having an 'N family look' without any sigils and even in disguise.

Seemingly ASOIAF genetics does not work quite the same as our genetics, so it would indeed be weird for Arya Stark to have brown eyes. 

And certainly the northern lords would take a good look as Arya was thought to be missing or dead and now she is suddenly found.

[zandru]

14 minutes ago, wia said:

Because the text describes eye and hair colour numerous times and certain families has certain eye + hair colour combinations that stay the same for ages and everybody in the books knows about it.

I dispute this. Look how much research it took Ned, and Jon Arryn and Stannis Baratheon before him, to work this out for something as "obvious" as gold blonde v raven black hair. Just because something is lovingly described in the text doesn't mean the text's characters all know or notice it.

Frankly, I think this topic is a dead horse by now. I think it's been established that likely some or many of the northern lords don't think "Arya" really is, and plan to use it against Roose when the time is right. Heck, we know that they're not all his "leal bannermen", regardless of what that parchment from little Tommen says.

[wia]

20 minutes ago, zandru said:

I dispute this. Look how much research it took Ned, and Jon Arryn and Stannis Baratheon before him, to work this out for something as "obvious" as gold blonde v raven black hair. Just because something is lovingly described in the text doesn't mean the text's characters all know or notice it.

Frankly, I think this topic is a dead horse by now. I think it's been established that likely some or many of the northern lords don't think "Arya" really is, and plan to use it against Roose when the time is right. Heck, we know that they're not all his "leal bannermen", regardless of what that parchment from little Tommen says.

Um, it took them so much research exactly because Cersei's kids look like Cersei. Same as most Ned and Cat's kids look like Cat whic is nothing unusual. It wouldn't take them much time to figure out that Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen were not Robert's if they had, say, dark hair and grey-green eyes which neither of their official parents have.

[zandru]

1 minute ago, wia said:

It wouldn't take them much time to figure out that Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen were not Robert's if they had, say, dark hair and grey-green eyes which neither of their official parents have.

Um - I would consider this totally believable. Dark hair, where the father has black and the mother gold? Easily within possibility. Grey-green eyes from a green, gold flecked pair and a blue? Why not?

It's the little detail of knowing that Cersei and Jaime had been getting it on like rabbits for decades, particularly after Cersei became Mrs. Baratheon, that calls attention to the excessive blondeness. Which Cersei would not permit, by the way. And yet, very very few showed any suspicion.

More than actually recognizing/not recognizing Arya Stark, I suspect the northern lords simply mistrusted the Boltons. Roose always was a creepy, treacherous figure. Ramsey was known as a vicious monster. The lords would assume a strong likelihood that these two were trying to put something over on them. That "Arya" came as a gift from the Lannister/Baratheons, who they had even less reason to trust, made their suspicion even stronger.

The eyes obsessed Theon. We don't see into anyone else's head - unfortunately.

[Lollygag]

49 minutes ago, zandru said:

I dispute this. Look how much research it took Ned, and Jon Arryn and Stannis Baratheon before him, to work this out for something as "obvious" as gold blonde v raven black hair. Just because something is lovingly described in the text doesn't mean the text's characters all know or notice it.

 

These aren't comparable. Grey + blue can't result in brown, but it's entirely possible for a black haired person to have blonde kids. Happens all of the time.

And I don't think anyone here is saying that every single person who has ever seen Arya noticed the eye color thing. The problem is where it's put forward that no one knows for sure that Arya's fake which implies that out of all of those currently at Winterfell who have seen Arya before, often multiple times, and given that they know that Arya alone looks like Ned, that not one single person noticed and told any other Stark supporter about this. All it takes is one and for that person tell another Stark supporter. But more likely, several (not all!) noticed on their own.

[zandru]

1 minute ago, Lollygag said:

But more likely, several (not all!) noticed on their own.

I'm with you there! Roose Bolton has a lot less support, trapped there in the Winterfell great hall, than he may assume. Ramsey may be too pig-stupid to really grasp this.

[wia]

43 minutes ago, zandru said:

Um - I would consider this totally believable. Dark hair, where the father has black and the mother gold? Easily within possibility. Grey-green eyes from a green, gold flecked pair and a blue? Why not?

It's the little detail of knowing that Cersei and Jaime had been getting it on like rabbits for decades, particularly after Cersei became Mrs. Baratheon, that calls attention to the excessive blondeness. Which Cersei would not permit, by the way. And yet, very very few showed any suspicion.

More than actually recognizing/not recognizing Arya Stark, I suspect the northern lords simply mistrusted the Boltons. Roose always was a creepy, treacherous figure. Ramsey was known as a vicious monster. The lords would assume a strong likelihood that these two were trying to put something over on them. That "Arya" came as a gift from the Lannister/Baratheons, who they had even less reason to trust, made their suspicion even stronger.

The eyes obsessed Theon. We don't see into anyone else's head - unfortunately.

Mess, I forgot that Cersei has green eyes when I was thinking of Littlefinger. 

But anyway, I stand by my point: Cersei's kids look like their mom, Jayne looks nothing like either Starks or Tullys.

[Nevets]

1 hour ago, Lollygag said:

These aren't comparable. Grey + blue can't result in brown, but it's entirely possible for a black haired person to have blonde kids. Happens all of the time.

And I don't think anyone here is saying that every single person who has ever seen Arya noticed the eye color thing. The problem is where it's put forward that no one knows for sure that Arya's fake which implies that out of all of those currently at Winterfell who have seen Arya before, often multiple times, and given that they know that Arya alone looks like Ned, that not one single person noticed and told any other Stark supporter about this. All it takes is one and for that person tell another Stark supporter. But more likely, several (not all!) noticed on their own.

Who currently at Winterfell has ever seen Arya?  Wyman Manderly is the only one I can think of, and we don't know when or for how long.  All the other Lords and heirs (the ones most likely to have seen her) are either dead, imprisoned, or otherwise not present.  And we don't know how detailed their description of Arya is either.

It is also useful to remember that children's appearance can change quite drastically at that age, something Theon mentions in his POV,when he first sees Jeyne.  So, even those who have seen her before will probably look for similarities in appearance, and Jeyne is probably close enough to pass.  

[Lollygag]

Just now, Nevets said:

Who currently at Winterfell has ever seen Arya?  Wyman Manderly is the only one I can think of, and we don't know when or for how long.  All the other Lords and heirs (the ones most likely to have seen her) are either dead, imprisoned, or otherwise not present.  And we don't know how detailed their description of Arya is either.

It is also useful to remember that children's appearance can change quite drastically at that age, something Theon mentions in his POV,when he first sees Jeyne.  So, even those who have seen her before will probably look for similarities in appearance, and Jeyne is probably close enough to pass.  

Winterfell is the hub of the North. Folks were in and out of there a lot and then Ned traveled. Lords need to gather now and then to do Lord stuff. Ned needed to be a visible presence. He wasn't beloved because he hid away and ignored everyone. They have festivals and such for networking. They gather now and again. It doesn't make sense that this didn't go on and it's not consistent the the degree of interaction that we see in-story and with how everyone seems to know each other well in-story. And when everyone came to Winterfell when Robb called the banners, it wasn't a long series of introductions like "hey nice to meet you finally" sorts of stuff. Robb and Cat acted like they knew all of these people. And as I said above, it's not smart to not take note of who may be ruling you in the future or who may hold great sway with the one who will rule you. Basically, WInterfell is the KL or the North, like Lannisport is the KL of the Westerlands, like the Eyrie is the King's Landing of the Vale. It's where people gather and do stuff and we see this throughout the books.

I'm not arguing that everyone noticed. It's that absolutely no one noticed at all among all of those people that doesn't make sense. And yes, kids change. But Arya looks like Ned and a classic Stark and it was noted repeatedly that she was the only one who looked like Ned.

Basically for the Northerners it might work like this:

• About everyone thought Arya was dead and there was no mention of her for years, now she's alive? Uh, ok.
• The Lannisters want Arya to marry their Bolton stooges. Convenient. (Skepticism now).
• That kid was supposed to look like Ned but looks nothing like Ned. Nothing like Cat either. (Lots of skepticism now)
• Don't want her to be dead, but if this isn't Arya, then I don't have to put up with Boltons and Lannisters forever.
• Takes a closer look, asks her questions. Nope not Arya. Stark grey + Tully blue can't yield brown.

Are you really suggesting the possibility that absolutely no one out of so many notices this? After GRRM all but hit us upside the head with the eye color issue in a world which goes on and on and on about coloring?

[zandru]

3 hours ago, Lollygag said:

Ned needed to be a visible presence. He wasn't beloved because he hid away and ignored everyone.

Indeed. The first thing Robb does when Ned goes south (literally) is to go out and visit all the bannermen and the tribes, to show that he's temporary Lord and wants to meet them all and hear their concerns.

3 hours ago, Lollygag said:

And when everyone came to Winterfell when Robb called the banners, it wasn't a long series of introductions like "hey nice to meet you finally" sorts of stuff.

Exactly. Jon frequently thinks back on Ned's guidance that a commander needs to know his men, each one and every one of them. Jon, like Robb, practices these lessons. They work well for Robb in battle.

3 hours ago, Lollygag said:

Basically for the Northerners it might work like this:

• About everyone thought Arya was dead and there was no mention of her for years, now she's alive? Uh, ok.
• The Lannisters want Arya to marry their Bolton stooges. Convenient. (Skepticism now).
• That kid was supposed to look like Ned but looks nothing like Ned. Nothing like Cat either. (Lots of skepticism now)
• Don't want her to be dead, but if this isn't Arya, then I don't have to put up with Boltons and Lannisters forever.
• Takes a closer look, asks her questions. Nope not Arya. Stark grey + Tully blue can't yield brown. 

Great sequence and list! We can further guess about (3) where Arya looked like Ned - and everybody tells Arya she's ugly - then compare her with Jeyne, who had been called pretty. This suggests a distinctly different look, for those who can guess.

[Nevets]

5 hours ago, Lollygag said:

Winterfell is the hub of the North. Folks were in and out of there a lot and then Ned traveled. Lords need to gather now and then to do Lord stuff. Ned needed to be a visible presence. He wasn't beloved because he hid away and ignored everyone. They have festivals and such for networking. They gather now and again. It doesn't make sense that this didn't go on and it's not consistent the the degree of interaction that we see in-story and with how everyone seems to know each other well in-story. And when everyone came to Winterfell when Robb called the banners, it wasn't a long series of introductions like "hey nice to meet you finally" sorts of stuff. Robb and Cat acted like they knew all of these people. And as I said above, it's not smart to not take note of who may be ruling you in the future or who may hold great sway with the one who will rule you. Basically, WInterfell is the KL or the North, like Lannisport is the KL of the Westerlands, like the Eyrie is the King's Landing of the Vale. It's where people gather and do stuff and we see this throughout the books.

I'm not arguing that everyone noticed. It's that absolutely no one noticed at all among all of those people that doesn't make sense. And yes, kids change. But Arya looks like Ned and a classic Stark and it was noted repeatedly that she was the only one who looked like Ned.

Basically for the Northerners it might work like this:

• About everyone thought Arya was dead and there was no mention of her for years, now she's alive? Uh, ok.
• The Lannisters want Arya to marry their Bolton stooges. Convenient. (Skepticism now).
• That kid was supposed to look like Ned but looks nothing like Ned. Nothing like Cat either. (Lots of skepticism now)
• Don't want her to be dead, but if this isn't Arya, then I don't have to put up with Boltons and Lannisters forever.
• Takes a closer look, asks her questions. Nope not Arya. Stark grey + Tully blue can't yield brown.

Are you really suggesting the possibility that absolutely no one out of so many notices this? After GRRM all but hit us upside the head with the eye color issue in a world which goes on and on and on about coloring?

Yep, lots of people visited Winterfell, and lots of guys responded to Robb calling the banners.  And they all went South - and didn't come back.  Those who are left are likely far enough down the line of succession in many cases they probably didn't visit.  Everyone who was anyone went South.

The Lannisters have kept a news blackout on Arya's disappearance.  It is assumed that she is a prisoner at the Red Keep.  Even her own family doesn't know any differently.

 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

If I was a Northern lord, what would prick my suspicion wouldn’t necessarily be hair or eye colour, or even age. What would make me suspicious would be that nothing was heard about Arya for years, to the point that Robb and Catelyn openly speculated about her death, then suddenly, just when it was convenient for them, the Boltons produce “Arya” to bolster their claim to Winterfell.

I may start paying attention to her appearance at that point, and any discrepancies might confirm my suspicions.

We know that some lords probably suspect she’s not really Arya, as I think Theon and Roose both say that’s likely. The whole point is that so long as Roose has enough power over them, it doesn’t really matter. She’s legalistic window-dressing for what is essentially a naked power-play.

[Lord Vance II]

A handful of lords may have their suspicions or maybe know its a lie straight up, but they have to play along with the "Mummer's Farce" until Manderly & Co. are ready to make their move. I think they'd be more suspicious of the dubious circumstances around her sudden resurfacing than her appearance though. 

Arya is the 3rd born and 2nd daughter. I doubt Ned trotted her out every time a Northern Lord came to Winterfell and even if he did, the lords wouldn't have much reason to pay much attention to her, especially since she'd be years from marriage. Hell, if Arya knew she was going to have to do the whole song-and-dance every time a lord came to visit, she'd probably take to the trees rather than have to look nice and proper.  

And as many have already said, many of those who may have better memory of Arya are dead. 

Personally, I think Manderly knows damn near everything going on right now in the North but has to wait, but admittedly I'm a huge Manderly fan.

Also, if Davos fails to recover Rickon, Manderly & Co. may need this Arya, fake or not, for basically the same reason the Boltons and Lannisters need her. 

[Nevets]

11 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

If I was a Northern lord, what would prick my suspicion wouldn’t necessarily be hair or eye colour, or even age. What would make me suspicious would be that nothing was heard about Arya for years, to the point that Robb and Catelyn openly speculated about her death, then suddenly, just when it was convenient for them, the Boltons produce “Arya” to bolster their claim to Winterfell.

I may start paying attention to her appearance at that point, and any discrepancies might confirm my suspicions.

We know that some lords probably suspect she’s not really Arya, as I think Theon and Roose both say that’s likely. The whole point is that so long as Roose has enough power over them, it doesn’t really matter. She’s legalistic window-dressing for what is essentially a naked power-play.

She was presumed to be a Lannister prisoner for a bit over a year, which isn't all that long under the circumstances.  And, given that there are no Northerners at the Red Keep (as far as I know), I doubt anyone in the North would be aware that she wasn't appearing at Court or hadn't otherwise been seen recently.  

Suspecting that she is fake is a long way from knowing.  Given that this is the Lannisters and Boltons, suspicion is perfectly natural.  However, they would also have to consider the possibility that she is actually the real thing, unless they have specific knowledge to the contrary, which is a possibility, though not, I think, a certainty.

11 hours ago, Lord Vance II said:

Also, if Davos fails to recover Rickon, Manderly & Co. may need this Arya, fake or not, for basically the same reason the Boltons and Lannisters need her. 

I think Manderly would have an even harder time getting hold of her than he would of Rickon (although I suspect Rickon isn't going to show up south of the Wall anytime soon).  She is currently in Stannis's camp and in a preview chapter

Stannis sends her to the Wall to be with her brother.   Given that she is accompanied by two men heading to Braavos,the logical assumption is that she will also end up in Braavos. 

  In any event she is unlikely to be available to the Manderlys.

[chrisdaw]

You know what's going to happen? Shit is going to get really confusing.

Jarya is going to go missing, if she dies or ends up lost in Braavos forever it doesn't matter, she's just going to fall out of the picture, her fate an whereabouts a mystery to the north.

Real Arya is going to come back and be revealed to the north. And they're just going to run with the story that Jarya was always real, there was never any fake and that she was just in hiding, and now she's back. By then Ramsay and all the Boltons will be dead so her marriage won't matter (it'll probably work in their favour when it comes to the Dreadfort).

But the people who knew Bolton's Arya was a fake are going to be really confused when the real Arya pops up again acting like that was her all along.

[Angel Eyes]

7 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

You know what's going to happen? Shit is going to get really confusing.

Jarya is going to go missing, if she dies or ends up lost in Braavos forever it doesn't matter, she's just going to fall out of the picture, her fate an whereabouts a mystery to the north.

Real Arya is going to come back and be revealed to the north. And they're just going to run with the story that Jarya was always real, there was never any fake and that she was just in hiding, and now she's back. By then Ramsay and all the Boltons will be dead so her marriage won't matter (it'll probably work in their favour when it comes to the Dreadfort).

But the people who knew Bolton's Arya was a fake are going to be really confused when the real Arya pops up again acting like that was her all along.

They should be able to differentiate them.

[a black swan]

8 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

You know what's going to happen? Shit is going to get really confusing.

Jarya is going to go missing, if she dies or ends up lost in Braavos forever it doesn't matter, she's just going to fall out of the picture, her fate an whereabouts a mystery to the north.

Real Arya is going to come back and be revealed to the north. And they're just going to run with the story that Jarya was always real, there was never any fake and that she was just in hiding, and now she's back. By then Ramsay and all the Boltons will be dead so her marriage won't matter (it'll probably work in their favour when it comes to the Dreadfort).

But the people who knew Bolton's Arya was a fake are going to be really confused when the real Arya pops up again acting like that was her all along.

I'd love to read more of your ideas of how Arya is revealed to the North? Do you think this will all happen by the next book?

 

Also this topic my tickle your fancy as well:

 

 

[Lluewhyn]

On 10/23/2018 at 5:59 PM, Nevets said:

I think an awful lot of posters are seriously estimating people's capacity for observation and memory.  It has been over two years since anybody in the North has seen Arya, and they don't have photographs (or any other pictures) to jog their memory of what she looks like. 

This. RL History had imposters all of the time because of this, until the advent of photographic identification.

Why they don't 100% remember her face to say, "Yep, that's definitely not Arya Stark":

1. They've only seen her a few times before. Not like going to Winterfell is a monthly visit.

2. They've seen her in those times where she's undergone significant physical development.

3. They have no photographs or pictures of her to keep her face frozen in their memory.

4. Although she's important as a person for who her family is, said lords/ladies probably see many, many faces between visits. See 1, 2, and 3 again.

On the other hand, they know that she's been put up by the Boltons, and she doesn't look like either Ned or Catelyn.

However, keeping all of this in mind, I thought the text was pretty clear that it's not a case of 100% "Yep, that's Arya", or "That's absolutely not her, do you take me for an idiot?", but rather more "Hmm, she doesn't look or act like I thought she should, but I don't know for certain so I'll keep quiet for now". Plus, even the people who flat out know that's not her have to put up with the farce for the moment like Manderly did with the accusations of Robb being a werewolf while they quiet scheme.

 

 

[Nevets]

13 hours ago, Lluewhyn said:

This. RL History had imposters all of the time because of this, until the advent of photographic identification.

Why they don't 100% remember her face to say, "Yep, that's definitely not Arya Stark":

1. They've only seen her a few times before. Not like going to Winterfell is a monthly visit.

2. They've seen her in those times where she's undergone significant physical development.

3. They have no photographs or pictures of her to keep her face frozen in their memory.

4. Although she's important as a person for who her family is, said lords/ladies probably see many, many faces between visits. See 1, 2, and 3 again.

On the other hand, they know that she's been put up by the Boltons, and she doesn't look like either Ned or Catelyn.

However, keeping all of this in mind, I thought the text was pretty clear that it's not a case of 100% "Yep, that's Arya", or "That's absolutely not her, do you take me for an idiot?", but rather more "Hmm, she doesn't look or act like I thought she should, but I don't know for certain so I'll keep quiet for now". Plus, even the people who flat out know that's not her have to put up with the farce for the moment like Manderly did with the accusations of Robb being a werewolf while they quiet scheme.

 

 

I doubt that anyone remembers her well enough to say definitively that she isn't Arya.  At best they would be simply unsure.  The bigger danger is that someone will recognize her as actually being Jeyne Poole, daughter of the Winterfell steward and Sansa's constant companion.  Which is essentially how Theon figured it out.

[Lollygag]

On 10/25/2018 at 12:30 AM, Nevets said:

Yep, lots of people visited Winterfell, and lots of guys responded to Robb calling the banners.  And they all went South - and didn't come back.  Those who are left are likely far enough down the line of succession in many cases they probably didn't visit.  Everyone who was anyone went South.

The Lannisters have kept a news blackout on Arya's disappearance.  It is assumed that she is a prisoner at the Red Keep.  Even her own family doesn't know any differently. 

 

Bolded - no, most women and all children did not go. Some who did fight came back. Many like Manderly and others were not in any condition to fight due to health, age, or being too fat to sit a horse. That every single person who could possibly recognize Arya went south and never came back doesn't work. At all. And you have to keep in mind that Arya being real comes with Lannister/Bolton rule which isn't going over well. In a series where a lot of situations are set up to allow characters to believe what they want to believe, you can see how this will go. Jaime called her out as fake and he's not seen her in a long time and then probably didn't pay much attention to her. Theon obsesses over her eyes which are impossible. She's the only kid who looks like Ned/a Stark. Crap writing if she's not called out. You don't lay out all of this for her to be recognized as fake and then just drop it like it didn't happen.

The only reason one would need a news black out is if they didn't want anyone to know they didn't have her. No one has turned up with her in years. No, it's not assumed that she's prisoner in the Red Keep as the Lannisters would broadcast that as it improves their position. The books are clear that the general assumption is that she's dead and the Lannisters just don't want to say.

ASOS Catelyn V

"So you pray. Have you considered your sisters? What of their rights? I agree that the north must not be permitted to pass to the Imp, but what of Arya? By law, she comes after Sansa . . . your own sister, trueborn . . ."

". . . and dead. No one has seen or heard of Arya since they cut Father's head off. Why do you lie to yourself? Arya's gone, the same as Bran and Rickon, and they'll kill Sansa too once the dwarf gets a child from her. Jon is the only brother that remains to me. Should I die without issue, I want him to succeed me as King in the North. I had hoped you would support my choice."

 

ADWD Jon VI

Jon saw no reason not to tell him. "Moat Cailin is taken. The flayed corpses of the ironmen have been nailed to posts along the kingsroad. Roose Bolton summons all leal lords to Barrowton, to affirm their loyalty to the Iron Throne and celebrate his son's wedding to …" His heart seemed to stop for a moment. No, that is not possible. She died in King's Landing, with Father.