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How does nobody spot that Jeyne Poole isn’t Arya Stark?


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On 10/25/2018 at 8:54 PM, chrisdaw said:

Jarya is going to go missing, if she dies or ends up lost in Braavos forever it doesn't matter, she's just going to fall out of the picture, her fate an whereabouts a mystery to the north.

Yeah I agree, Jeyne might make it to the Wall but Jon will be dead by then. If she hears that Ramsay is going to attack the Wall at any point, I think she runs away and ends up frozen in a snowstorm before Jon is resurrected. Foreshadowing: “The longer you hide, the sterner the penance. You’ll be sewing all through winter. When the spring thaw comes, they will find your body with a needle still locked tight between your frozen fingers.” (Arya, AGOT). Jeyne was part of Sansa and Arya's sewing circle. 

 

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17 hours ago, Lollygag said:

Bolded - no, most women and all children did not go. Some who did fight came back. Many like Manderly and others were not in any condition to fight due to health, age, or being too fat to sit a horse. That every single person who could possibly recognize Arya went south and never came back doesn't work. At all. And you have to keep in mind that Arya being real comes with Lannister/Bolton rule which isn't going over well.

I believe that several characters have mentioned that everyone who knew her well enough to positively identify her is dead or missing.  Certainly not guests at Winterfell.  I wouldn't be surprised if Wyman Manderly is the only one htere who has actually laid eyes on her, and we don't how often or when (don't mention the trips to White Harbour.  There are plenty of reasons to go to White Harbour that have nothing to do with the Manderlys).  I think Martin has left his options open to go either way on this one.

17 hours ago, Lollygag said:

In a series where a lot of situations are set up to allow characters to believe what they want to believe, you can see how this will go. Jaime called her out as fake and he's not seen her in a long time and then probably didn't pay much attention to her. Theon obsesses over her eyes which are impossible. She's the only kid who looks like Ned/a Stark. Crap writing if she's not called out. You don't lay out all of this for her to be recognized as fake and then just drop it like it didn't happen.

Well, given that in the preview chapter

Theon tells Jeyne that she is going to have to continue the masquerade, to her displeasure

I think Martin wants someone to think she is fake.

Actually, as far as Winterfell is concerned, it probably doesn't really matter any more.  She is gone, and isn't going to be returning (she'd probably impale herself on a sword before returning to Ramsay), whether or not anybody knew she was fake is probably essentially irrelevant.  And whatever the situation in Winterfell, I doubt anybody in Stannis's camp or on the Wall has any idea what she looks like.

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1 hour ago, Nevets said:

I believe that several characters have mentioned that everyone who knew her well enough to positively identify her is dead or missing.  Certainly not guests at Winterfell.  I wouldn't be surprised if Wyman Manderly is the only one htere who has actually laid eyes on her, and we don't how often or when (don't mention the trips to White Harbour.  There are plenty of reasons to go to White Harbour that have nothing to do with the Manderlys).  I think Martin has left his options open to go either way on this one.

Anyone who knows that Ned has grey eyes (Stark eyes) and Catelyn has blue eyes (Tully eyes) can eliminate brown-eyed Jeyne as Arya. And Jeyne looks nothing like a Stark or Tully.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Well, given that in the preview chapter

It was never that everyone will notice and notice at the same time, it's that someone(s) will notice, tell others and then begin to plan on this. What Theon tells her still makes sense.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

I think Martin wants someone to think she is fake.

Actually, as far as Winterfell is concerned, it probably doesn't really matter any more.  She is gone, and isn't going to be returning (she'd probably impale herself on a sword before returning to Ramsay), whether or not anybody knew she was fake is probably essentially irrelevant.  And whatever the situation in Winterfell, I doubt anybody in Stannis's camp or on the Wall has any idea what she looks like.

I agree that Jeyne's role is probably played out at least where Winterfell is concerned. But her being noticed as fake is still important. Overthrowing Bolton/fStark and overthrowing Bolton/real Stark are completely different things. I don't think some would be comfortable overthrowing the real deal. The north has some options if they make the Lannisters think they think she's real but I'm not sure they'll go that way.

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On ‎10‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 11:28 PM, a black swan said:

I'd love to read more of your ideas of how Arya is revealed to the North? Do you think this will all happen by the next book?

I don't think there's much how to it. Jon is going to be KITN, Arya will eventually decide Sansa is not a worthy taskmaster in KL and work her way back to him and reveal herself, and because Jon will have consolidated power and be very feared no-one will question his word that she is Arya and thus princess of the North. But if they did she has a castle forged steel sword fit for a young girl with the mark of Winterfell's old smith on it.

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1 hour ago, chrisdaw said:

I don't think there's much how to it. Jon is going to be KITN, Arya will eventually decide Sansa is not a worthy taskmaster in KL and work her way back to him and reveal herself, and because Jon will have consolidated power and be very feared no-one will question his word that she is Arya and thus princess of the North. But if they did she has a castle forged steel sword fit for a young girl with the mark of Winterfell's old smith on it.

Other than Jon becoming KitN, I see none of this happening.  Sansa's story is one of becoming a player to reckon with, and not at like Cersei.  Her story is also of the North.  KL has no appeal to her.  As for Arya, she has a wolf pack to pick up.   And the story of the Starks is clearly one of eventually coming together as a team.

I will say that FArya could cause some serious confusion for Arya when she does decide to reveal herself, although I expect that FArya and RealArya will meet in Braavos.

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7 hours ago, Nevets said:

Sansa's story is one of becoming a player to reckon with, and not at like Cersei.  Her story is also of the North.  KL has no appeal to her.

I disagree. Sansa remains the party girl, the sucker for singers, the tourney groupie. She has always resented the boring old north. There aren't "players" in the north; King's Landing is where players play "the best games." If Sansa is to become a player, she'll gravitate back to King's Landing and stay there. This will almost certainly have to be via marriage, because that's how women get moved around the game board in Westeros, and because Sansa more "played" than "player." Look for her return via The Mad Mouse.

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Cersei’s about to get real with the Tyrells and the High Sparrow. Sandsnakes. Tommen dies. Myrcella dies. Aegon attacks, then Euron follows. EURON! Then Dany. No more games in KL, just war. GRRM said that a number of people will sit the IT before all is said and done which means constant conflict. That's a long list for only 2 books left.

To some degree the North has the Great Northern Conspiracy. With the Starks as Lords only, power was consolidated with just them. Few conflicts, little politics. As a Kingdom though, you need Masters of Stuff, Hands. and whatnot. Which means families which were previously loyal to the Starks will now be competing for power. The North is already the new KL.

Adding:  For the life of me I don't get how anyone thinks KL will look and function at all like it did in previous books with all of the upcoming conflicts.

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On 10/28/2018 at 2:08 AM, Nevets said:

I will say that FArya could cause some serious confusion for Arya when she does decide to reveal herself, although I expect that FArya and RealArya will meet in Braavos.

That's the theory that I'm going with. Stannis has already told Justin Massey to take FArya to the Wall, and THEN to Braavos. Justin takes Jeyne to the Wall, sees the civil war or similar mess going down there (before Jon Snow resurrection), decides to bring her with them to Braavos instead.

In Braavos, the two run into Arya, who has spent every book from ACoK onward hiding from her true identity of Arya Stark, which is the impetus for her to reclaim her name and come back to Westeros.

What happens to Jeyne in the process, no idea. Hopefully Arya doesn't do anything villainous to her.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Lluewhyn said:

In Braavos, the two run into Arya, who has spent every book from ACoK onward hiding from her true identity of Arya Stark, which is the impetus for her to reclaim her name and come back to Westeros.

What happens to Jeyne in the process, no idea. Hopefully Arya doesn't do anything villainous to her.

An intriguing possibility! However, I strongly doubt Arya would even consider doing anything lethal to her old Winterfell acquaintance. I think Arya would just add Ramsey and Roose to her list. And the Freys, if they aren't already on it.

Remember, Arya has a passion for justice and helping the downtrodden. Lots of people enjoy characterizing her as a vicious homocidal maniac who kills just for the heck of it and thinks it's fun, but if you'll look at her many killings, each was motivated by a sense of justice. Even the much-debated assassination of the insurance fraudster. Arya didn't buy in to killing him until she'd gotten detailed explanations of what he did.

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25 minutes ago, zandru said:

Remember, Arya has a passion for justice and helping the downtrodden. Lots of people enjoy characterizing her as a vicious homocidal maniac who kills just for the heck of it and thinks it's fun, but if you'll look at her many killings, each was motivated by a sense of justice. Even the much-debated assassination of the insurance fraudster. Arya didn't buy in to killing him until she'd gotten detailed explanations of what he did.

I don't disagree. This is my hope for how it plays out. I just hope that it's not going to be something like Arya ends up killing Jeyne, really reviews her priorities of Vengeance vs. Justice, and decides to atone by being only truly just in Westeros as she completes her list. Given how I think there's a thematic need to have Arya reunite with her family (finally), I think there's only a tiny chance of it going this way.

From a practical standpoint, I think it also works better to have Ser Justin Massey on hand to bring the real Arya back, which would be abetted by Jeyne Poole testifying to her identity. I think it will be a rather emotional scene either way, and I have no idea where Jeyne would go from there.

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I think whether or not Jeyne Poole is actually Arya is beyond the point.  I wouldn't be surprised if many of the Lords at Winterfell knew or at the very least suspected Jeyne to be a fake- what matters is that they have to fall in line behind the Boltons/Freys for the moment and that if Lords had their suspicions, they may have been assuaged by Theon vouching for "Arya's" identity at the wedding.  

I have always wondered whether Mance knows she is a fake.  I have always assumed he does just because it's a plot point that he saw all the Stark children around the same time Jaime would have seen Arya and Jaime knew she was a fake right away.  But then I'm not sure Mance's actions make sense if he knows "Arya" is a fake- he has spearwives sacrificing themselves to save her and it's possible he didn't get a great look at Arya the feast at Winterfell and Jaime spent a lot more time around her...so who knows?

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3 hours ago, Lluewhyn said:

That's the theory that I'm going with. Stannis has already told Justin Massey to take FArya to the Wall, and THEN to Braavos. Justin takes Jeyne to the Wall, sees the civil war or similar mess going down there (before Jon Snow resurrection), decides to bring her with them to Braavos instead.

In Braavos, the two run into Arya, who has spent every book from ACoK onward hiding from her true identity of Arya Stark, which is the impetus for her to reclaim her name and come back to Westeros.

What happens to Jeyne in the process, no idea. Hopefully Arya doesn't do anything villainous to her.

 

 

I would expect that whoever is in charge at the Wall is going to ask (tell) Massey to take her with him so as to get her out of town.  They will probably be under the belief that Ramsay is headed there, and won't want Arya there when he arrives.

Once in Braavos, I would expect to stay with the banker, if anybody we know.  Arya is likely to hear that "Arya" is in town, and go to investigate.

I doubt that she will kill Jeyne.  If anything she will probably feel a bit sorry for her.  I agree that she may add names to her list, but it is useful to remember that it is more of a prayer list than a hit list.  The only people on it that she has killed are ones she accidentally ran into.  She has yet to seek out anyone on it, and I doubt that will change.

When she returns to Westeros, she may well have Jeyne in tow.  Side note: I wouldn't be surprised if Jeyne is pregnant, just to add some more messiness to the story.

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1 hour ago, Nevets said:

I would expect that whoever is in charge at the Wall is going to ask (tell) Massey to take her with him so as to get her out of town.  They will probably be under the belief that Ramsay is headed there, and won't want Arya there when he arrives.

Once in Braavos, I would expect to stay with the banker, if anybody we know.  Arya is likely to hear that "Arya" is in town, and go to investigate.

I doubt that she will kill Jeyne.  If anything she will probably feel a bit sorry for her.  I agree that she may add names to her list, but it is useful to remember that it is more of a prayer list than a hit list.  The only people on it that she has killed are ones she accidentally ran into.  She has yet to seek out anyone on it, and I doubt that will change.

When she returns to Westeros, she may well have Jeyne in tow.  Side note: I wouldn't be surprised if Jeyne is pregnant, just to add some more messiness to the story.

:ack: I hope Jeyne isn't pregnant, poor girl has gone through enough.  No way could I see Arya killing her, Arya's in a bit of a gray area now, her killing Jeyne would put her firmly in villain territory.  

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4 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

:ack: I hope Jeyne isn't pregnant, poor girl has gone through enough.  No way could I see Arya killing her, Arya's in a bit of a gray area now, her killing Jeyne would put her firmly in villain territory.  

I pretty much agree.  However, Martin likes to put his characters through the ringer, so I wouldn't be surprised for him to give Jeyne more to go through.  On the bright side, it would probably make her effective ruler of Hornwood, and maybe even the Dreadfort (oh, goody!).

I, too, seriously doubt she would kill Jeyne.  She has no real reason to do so.  While she may have disliked her, Jeyne hasn't actually done anything seriously bad, and certainly nothing of her own volition.  

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2 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

I have always wondered whether Mance knows she is a fake.  I have always assumed he does just because it's a plot point that he saw all the Stark children around the same time Jaime would have seen Arya and Jaime knew she was a fake right away.  But then I'm not sure Mance's actions make sense if he knows "Arya" is a fake- he has spearwives sacrificing themselves to save her and it's possible he didn't get a great look at Arya the feast at Winterfell and Jaime spent a lot more time around her...so who knows?

Good question. I think it would have to be out of Mance's personal observations (like he did with noticing Jon Snow when he was young), as there's no way any of the lords/ladies are discussing their misgivings with him around. Still, I think an important distinction is that Mance saw Jon as a boy, was *told* that Jon was the one visiting him in the tent, and probably thought "he looks pretty much like the boy I remember" as opposed to identifying him from his memory without being told of who he was. Plus, unless Mance has some kind of photographic memory, there were a lot of people more important for him to pay attention to at the feast than one child. He might have taken note of her, but he's just a mortal man and probably paying more attention to the people that are possibly related to his current plans.

So, I would lean towards Mance thinking Jeyne is the real thing, although they've probably picked up some weirdness vibe. As you say, his actions don't make sense if he knows the truth.

 

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