Why is Doran making terrible mistakes concerning his kids?

[hodorisfaclessman]

13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

The only mention of taking more time to gather it's strenght is about the north. Also the north is much bigger. For a umber to reach Moat Caillin would take much more time than any distance in Dorne. Doran also had much more time to gather his force than Robb had. Robb went south in a hurry, Doran sit in Dorne during the whole war and then only send 10k with Rhaegar after Aerys threat his sister.

Yeah, but it happened and he failed to read her and realize that she was trying to gain his attention. He never told her anything and let things get worse and worse.

 

Please show me the quote that points out such plan. Everything we know so far, the only plan he had was Viserys and that wasn't even put in pratice when ended.

Its strength varies one day its around the north the next its iron islands level ,and distance travelled over dessert isnt easy going ..the north is far far bigger yes but outsode of winter is as easy to traverse as anywhere else

Hes not a mind reader and again that would put him in the same category as most westeros lords ,her screwing around seems the norm for dornish ladies

 

He had a plam with viserys that ended and soon after the viper who he worked alongside went to kl...coincidence?no He virtualy spells it out for his daughter and the snakes if you re read ...what did you think he was talking about with all the grass and snake talk? It couldnt be clearer their entire thing was a good cop-bad cop  routine

[SeanF]

10 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

Yeah.  Poor little spoiled rich girl.  Compared to her, the common folk don't have any problems at all.

This is no light matter, you say.  Do you mean that Arianne thinks Quentyn will murder or imprison her once he gets in power?  Or are you suggesting that Arianne will murder or imprison Quentyn once SHE gets in power.  Because the latter seems far more likely to me.  She, after all, is the paranoid power-hungry one.  Being a soft-hearted type, she'll probably try imprisoning him first, until something goes wrong due to her poor planning, and Quentyn ends up dying with half a face.

Should I be weeping over her marriage prospects?  Who does she want to marry?  Arianne does not even WANT marriage, as far as I can tell.  She wants to be Princess of Dorne after her gouty old uncle kicks the bucket, and then she can marry who she wants.  The only thing that worries her about Doran's not-very-forceful matchmaking, is the vague suggestion of the idea that Doran's actions are not entirely consistent with Arianne's power ambitions.  And how does Doran appease her?  By telling her that he planned to marry her to Viserys.  I'm not sure if Doran is telling the truth, here, but he sure knows what she wants to hear.  Viserys a good match?  Yes, she really is that ambitious, as well as that stupid, and Doran knows it.

That is frequently what happens in succession struggles.  Arianne compares herself to Rhaenyra, who was killed by her step-brother. 

Certainly, Arianne wants to marry.  She wants heirs of her own.

[Arthur Peres]

13 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

So he adapted it.

And that result got his son killed. Not a great plan.

[Platypus Rex]

11 hours ago, SeanF said:

That is frequently what happens in succession struggles.  Arianne compares herself to Rhaenyra, who was killed by her step-brother. 

Certainly, Arianne wants to marry.  She wants heirs of her own.

It is interesting the moral Arianne draws from the story.  Rhaenyra was not killed merely because she had a plausible claim to the throne.  She was killed because she ruthlessly pursued her claim, devastated the realm, and ultimately lost the bloody war that she made.  Aegon II killed Rhaenyra, but did not kill her surviving children, one of whom succeeded Aegon II to the throne.

Yes, ruthless evil people do horrible things for the sake of power during succession struggles, even to their own family.  One person might say "Gosh, that's horrible, I don't want to start any fratricidal murderous conflicts.  Look where it leads".

But not Arianne.  What Arianne thinks is "Gosh, that's horrible.  I'd better start a bloody war, before someone else starts it first, to make sure that when the smoke clears and the dust settles, I may just to slightly increase the odds the person left standing on a pile of corpses in the middle of a devastated realm is POOR LITTLE ME!  Oopse, there goes Arys.  Oops, there goes Myrcella."

 Because that's the kind of person SHE is.  That's all I'm saying.  Quentyn not so much. 

[Arthur Peres]

Just now, Platypus Rex said:

It is interesting the moral Arianne draws from the story.  Rhaenyra was not killed merely because she had a plausible claim to the throne.  She was killed because she ruthlessly pursued her claim, devastated the realm, and ultimately lost the bloody war that she made.  Aegon II killed Rhaenyra, but did not kill her surviving children, one of whom succeeded Aegon II to the throne.

 

Once the heir is stripped of the sucession usually it ends with him getting killed or exiled, so yeah, she had plenty of reasons to be worried. We are no short of examples of this

Roose tell us that anyone that won the Kingsmoot of the Iron Island would thank them for executing Theon.

Roose also tell us that Ramsey will kill every future brother in order to be his heir.

Aegon II killed Rhaenyra in the dance of dragons. Maegor killed Aegon and fought against Aenys.

As SeanF said, you dont let someone with a better claim than you alive.

Just now, Platypus Rex said:

But not Arianne.  What Arianne thinks is "Gosh, that's horrible.  I'd better start a bloody war, before someone else starts it first, to make sure that when the smoke clears and the dust settles, I may just to slightly increase the odds the person left standing on a pile of corpses in the middle of a devastated realm is POOR LITTLE ME!  Oopse, there goes Arys.  Oops, there goes Myrcella."

 

Everything Arianne knows is, her father does not cared about her, she tried to get reactions from him in every turn and she the conclusion she get was "He is good at doing nothing".

Doran then sends Quentyn to be fostered by his strongest bannerman, and refused her the bethrotal to Edmure, She also finds a letter saying that Quentyn was suposed to rule Dorne.

She had plenty of reasons to be worried. Is not just her right to inherit that are at risk but also her life.

[Platypus Rex]

6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

"Once the heir is stripped of the sucession usually it ends with him getting killed or exiled, so yeah, she had plenty of reasons to be worried. We are no short of examples of this"

And we also have plenty examples of people who do NOT murder their relatives, and others, regardless of "better claims".  But I we are all free to choose the heroes we wish to emulate.

She can worry all she wants.  She does not have the right to get other people killed on account of a remote speculative threat to her precious backside.

"As SeanF said, you dont let someone with a better claim than you alive."

I don't?  Speak for yourself. 

"She had plenty of reasons to be worried. Is not just her right to inherit that are at risk but also her life."

Life is inherently dangerous.  That does not mean we are not responsible for the things we do to others.   Now Arianne has blood on her hands.

Again, there is far more danger that Arianne would end up killing Quentyn if she rose to power.  Because that's the kind of person SHE is.  Quentyn, not so much.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

11 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

And that result got his son killed. Not a great plan.

He recognised the dangers of the plan. However, you can hardly put Quentyn's death at his door. I don't see any fair risk assessment Doran could have possibly made that would include the line "...and then Quentyn will take a whip down to the cellar to try and tame a dragon, and then get cooked alive."

[SeanF]

11 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

It is interesting the moral Arianne draws from the story.  Rhaenyra was not killed merely because she had a plausible claim to the throne.  She was killed because she ruthlessly pursued her claim, devastated the realm, and ultimately lost the bloody war that she made.  Aegon II killed Rhaenyra, but did not kill her surviving children, one of whom succeeded Aegon II to the throne.

Yes, ruthless evil people do horrible things for the sake of power during succession struggles, even to their own family.  One person might say "Gosh, that's horrible, I don't want to start any fratricidal murderous conflicts.  Look where it leads".

But not Arianne.  What Arianne thinks is "Gosh, that's horrible.  I'd better start a bloody war, before someone else starts it first, to make sure that when the smoke clears and the dust settles, I may just to slightly increase the odds the person left standing on a pile of corpses in the middle of a devastated realm is POOR LITTLE ME!  Oopse, there goes Arys.  Oops, there goes Myrcella."

 Because that's the kind of person SHE is.  That's all I'm saying.  Quentyn not so much. 

Which makes Arianne no different to Daenerys, Stannis, Tyrion, Renly, Ned Stark, Robert Baratheon,  or any other protagonist in this series, all of whom are prepared to fight to defend themselves, or their positions, or to avenge slights to their honour.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

14 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

And we also have plenty examples of people who do NOT murder their relatives, and others, regardless of "better claims".  But I we are all free to choose the heroes we wish to emulate.

Are there many examples of this? I think it's probably unusual.

Leaving someone with a better claim to you alive is obviously a risk. But even if you decide not to kill them off, you would surely have to take measures to neutralise them in some way – imprisonment, banishment, etc. – which would probably end up being unpleasant for the person at the pointy end of it.

The comparison with the Dance is interesting, and you can see why Arianne would refer to it, but that was a genuine legal question over who should inherit – the daughter of the first wife or the son of the second one. In Arianne and Quentyn’s case it’s pretty clear cut. By Dornish law, the eldest child, not the eldest son, inherits.

[illrede]

14 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

And that result got his son killed. Not a great plan.

*Shrug* Events.

It was as good a plan as there was, he needed a plenipotentiary the point of contact and the new arrangement would have to be accepted by his son to be workable anyway.

Going back, Doran was unwilling to disinherit Arianne and that is on him. His judgement that she could not be brought into the family plot was empirically vindicated. Arianne's coup attempt against her father would have, in her assessment of the situation, been met with lethal consequences if it failed, and it failed for the reasons Doran gave for not bringing her into the family plot (she couldn't keep her mouth shut with friends that couldn't keep their own mouths shut around casual acquaintances). That said, post-Crows Arianne seems to not have this fault and there doesn't appear to be a reason not to benefit from the silver lining of a painful education.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

11 minutes ago, illrede said:

That said, post-Crows Arianne seems to not have this fault and there doesn't appear to be a reason not to benefit from the silver lining of a painful education.

Indeed, she had a sharp lesson. Which is how most children of lords seem to learn is this world, for what it's worth. One of the benefits of a hereditary system is that children are chucked into leadership positions at ridiculously young ages. It often leads to disasters, but for others it provides a "sink ior swim" learning curve.

Doran's not unusual in throwing his children in at the deep end. Jaime was sent into battle when he was what, 15? If he'd been killed by the Kingswood Brotherhood would we all be saying "what was Tywin thinking, risking his heir like that?"? Robb called the banners at the same age. Hell, Ned and Robert were conquering the continent in their late teens. Medieval society was much younger than today. People were going to war as children, and leading armies in their twenties and thirties.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Are there many examples of this? I think it's probably unusual.

Leaving someone with a better claim to you alive is obviously a risk. But even if you decide not to kill them off, you would surely have to take measures to neutralise them in some way – imprisonment, banishment, etc. – which would probably end up being unpleasant for the person at the pointy end of it.

The comparison with the Dance is interesting, and you can see why Arianne would refer to it, but that was a genuine legal question over who should inherit – the daughter of the first wife or the son of the second one. In Arianne and Quentyn’s case it’s pretty clear cut. By Dornish law, the eldest child, not the eldest son, inherits.

Even in this day and age, people get hurt by being disinherited.

But, in Martin's world, the consequences are much more severe. We have Quentyn's point of view, so we can see that it's most unlikely he'd want to murder or imprison his sister, if he replaced her in the succession.  But, a disinherited heir will attract conspirators like flies to a honeypot, and there would be plenty of people advising Quentyn that he'd be a lot safer if Arianne wasn't around anymore.  Or simply taking matters into their own hands,  Arianne could easily meet an "accident" or "commit suicide."

At any rate, there's nothing irrational about Arianne fearing for her future if (as she believes) she has been disinherited.

 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

14 minutes ago, SeanF said:

At any rate, there's nothing irrational about Arianne fearing for her future if (as she believes) she has been disinherited.

She also put 2+2 together and made 5, thinking Quentyn was about to return to Dorne with the Golden Company.

That being said, it was a strange thing that she formed that idea - that Doran would recruit a company of exiles to come in to take over. If she'd thought it through better, she surely would have realised that that was unlikely.

[Arthur Peres]

On 10/24/2018 at 12:42 PM, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

She also put 2+2 together and made 5, thinking Quentyn was about to return to Dorne with the Golden Company.

 

To be fair the information she got was that she was disinherited in favor of Quentyn, he was in a secret mission across the sea and that Doran was keeping it as secret from her, Doran is good at doing nothing about Oberyn and Elia's death and he does not want to go to war against the IT.

The idea of bringing a mercenary company is weird since they just have to dispose of her, assassination would be easier, but she had reasons to be paranoid.

[Platypus Rex]

On ‎10‎/‎24‎/‎2018 at 9:21 AM, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

"Are there many examples of this?"

Too many to count.  Even in the mad, bad, world of Westeros.

"I think it's probably unusual."

Nope.  Not even in mad bad Westeros.   Otherwise the various noble families would not have survived.

"Leaving someone with a better claim to you alive is obviously a risk."

Are you trying to tell us what YOU would do?