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Winterfell burning a 3rd time


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Winterfell has burned twice in the narrative:

1. The library Tower

2. Theon's invasion

I will explore evidence for it burning a third time (rule of three).

Evidence #1 - The direwolves

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“Men, many men, many horses, and fire, fire, fire. No smell was more dangerous, not even the hard cold smell of iron, the stuff of man-claws and hardskin. The smoke and ash clouded his eyes, and in the sky he saw a great winged snake whose roar was a river of flame. He bared his teeth, but then the snake was gone. Behind the cliffs tall fires were eating up the stars.” - Bran, ACOK

I know that Summer uses "wolf" speak, for instance "man-claws" are swords and "hardskin" is armor. So this image of a snake could be fire arrows or some type of catapult. This piece of evidence, by itself, is weak. But then earlier, the wolves were howling at the comet (I don't think Summer sees the comet in the attack on WF - it is gone by then). Can wolves howling at the comet foreshadow dragons burning Winterfell? The subtext here is ominous:

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“Maester Luwin did not think so. “Wolves often howl at the moon. These are howling at the comet. See how bright it is, Bran? Perchance they think it is the moon.”

When Bran repeated that to Osha, she laughed aloud. “Your wolves have more wit than your maester,” the wildling woman said. “They know truths the grey man has forgotten.” The way she said it made him shiver, and when he asked what the comet meant, she answered, “Blood and fire, boy, and nothing sweet.”

. . .Old Nan. . .lived longer than any of them. “Dragons,” she said, lifting her head and sniffing. She was near blind and could not see the comet, yet she claimed she could smell it. “It be dragons, boy,” she insisted. Bran got no princes from Nan, no more than he ever had.” - Bran, ACOK

Since two wise elders who are most clue-ed in to the story's history see the comet as a symbol of blood/fire/dragons, I think the evidence becomes much stronger that we will see direwolves vs. dragons in the future. The direwolves know something is wrong and are warning Winterfell of a threat.

Evidence #2 - Marriage, Fear, and Force

Through Torrhen, the North was conquered under threat of Dragonfire. Taking the North through marriage has also been attempted. Theon thought about this route during his invasion:

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“His father thought only in terms of conquest, but what good was it to take a kingdom if you could not hold it? Force and fear could carry you only so far. A pity Ned Stark had taken his daughters south; elsewise Theon could have tightened his grip on Winterfell by marrying one of them. Sansa was a pretty little thing too, and by now likely even ripe for bedding. But she was a thousand leagues away, in the clutches of the Lannisters. A shame.” - Theon, ACOK

Marrying Tyrion to Sansa and Ramsay to fake Arya was another way these Stark outsiders made a claim on the North - but it's clear that they would also need to hold it through force and fear, like Theon. Thus, MARRIAGE and FORCE/FEAR as a key to winning the North is a reoccuring theme in the books. Dany encounters this dilemma in Meereen, when she has to decide between a wedding or perpetual war. Another duality (separate from Winterfell) is marriage and fire. Tommen's wedding ceremony concludes with the lighting of a "candle:"

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It is beautiful, she thought, as beautiful as Joffrey, when they laid him in my arms. No man had ever made her feel as good as she had felt when he took her nipple in his mouth to nurse. . .  

“Green flames leapt into the sky and whirled around each other. Tommen shied away, till Margaery took his hand and said, “Look, the flames are dancing. Just as we did, my love.”
“They are.” His voice was filled with wonder. “Mother, look, they’re dancing . . ."

“No need.” Cersei felt too alive for sleep. The wildfire was cleansing her, burning away all her rage and fear, filling her with resolve. “The flames are so pretty. I want to watch them for a while.”

- Cersei, AFFC

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“She was the blood of the dragon, and the fire was in her. . . The flames writhed before her like the women who had danced at her wedding, whirling and singing and spinning their yellow and orange and crimson veils, fearsome to behold, yet lovely, so lovely, alive with heat. Dany opened her arms to them, her skin flushed and glowing. This is a wedding, too, she thought. Mirri Maz Duur had fallen silent. Ser Jorah was shouting behind her, but he did not matter anymore, only the fire mattered. The flames were so beautiful, the loveliest things she had ever seen, each one a sorcerer robed in yellow and orange and scarlet, swirling long smoky cloaks.” - Daenerys, AGOT

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“A blue flower grew from a chink in a wall of ice, and filled the air with sweetness. . . . mother of dragons, bride of fire . . . ”

Note the similarities in the use of dancing fire, weddings, beautiful flames, cleansing fire, vengeance, and the resolve both feel toward taking a life and destroying a tower. Cersei is captivated by the fire just like Dany. Dancing metaphors also make me wonder if this is foreshadowing a second Dance of Dragons. If that's the case, the Dance will be closely linked to the imagery of a wedding and a tower (broken tower at Winterfell, perhaps?). 

There is also this line during Alys' wedding, which I think is quite clever:

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“What fire joins, none may put asunder.”
“What fire joins, none may put asunder,” came the echo, from queen’s men and Thenns and even a few of the black brothers.
Except for kings and uncles, thought Jon Snow.

- Jon, ADWD

Technically, the line should read "except for kings and cousins" since Cregan Karstark is actually a cousin. Kings (Jon) and cousins (the Starks) disrupting a wedding "joined by fire" (Dany and her dragons) will be discussed in the next section.

Evidence #3 - Blue Flower in a Wall of Ice

I think this vision is strongly linked to "bride of fire" because "slayer of lies" and "daughter of death" appear to be describing an outcome after a series of events. Rhaegar and Viserys both die. Outcome: Dany is the last daughter of a doomed dynasty. A mummer's dragon and a king casting no shadow. Outcome: Dany will fulfill the Azor Ahai prophecy (and I think this prophecy is BAD - I'll detail in another post). Dany's wedding gift and the blue flower. Outcome: a war instead of a wedding.

"Stealing" is a strong theme related to the blue rose. The theft of a Stark girl comes up three times in the narrative, with Bael, Rhaegar, and Baelish. Related to this, Dany could perceive Jon as stealing her kingdom. At the same time, Jon could see Dany as a thief who attempts to steal the North by fear/force, like Theon, Ramsay, and the Lannisters. Dany's tipping point could be the culmination of her having something stolen from her, then her retaliation to force it to work in her favor anyway. If she can't have marriage, all she has is force, and fear. 

Per the passages referenced above, Dany held her own "wedding" while her husband burned. Her child and husband were stolen from her so she forced a ritual to hatch dragons. Perhaps instead of Jon/Dany marrying, she will "marry fire" - that is, attack a castle for the first time, with dragons at Winterfell. Politically, this would come about because, like Theon, Jon's parentage and any support he receives in opposition to her could mean she's not able to conquer the North any other way. Since it's Dany seeing the blue flower, it could relate primarily to her perception of who Jon is, which is likely to be flawed if she meets him as a bastard first. Since Jon was never supposed to be raised at Winterfell, I think his presence there puts the castle at risk.

I also think the wall of ice doesn't just refer to the Wall - it's too obvious of a reference in a prophecy full of metaphors and misdirects. 

I can see four alternative possibilities for the "wall of ice." 

Wall of ice as armor - Yes, THE Wall is also a type of armor, but instead of keeping out the Others, I think what Dany is seeing is armor/protection that keeps HER out of Westeros. Varamyr sees "a weirwood armored in ice," Jon is armored in black ice (and black ice has been described as "treacherous"), and Dany sees the Usurper's rebel host (foreshadowing for Jon?) armored in ice, which she melts on the Trident. This "battle" could move to Winterfell if Dany is thinking she is taking revenge. I don't think this dream is foreshadowing the Others because their armor is described as camouflaging and mirror-like.

Moreover, the phrase "from a chink in a wall of ice" sounds like "chink in the armor," which comes up when Brienne recalls her training. She has to fight to win, or the chink will be her death. This is something I think Jon will have to do as well once his parentage is known. He can't assume his enemies will play fairly once his cover is blown. He has to carry the "wall" with him everywhere he goes like armor. If Jon leaves the Wall and returns to Winterfell, this line in the prophecy shifts to the place Jon was originally "hidden." Thus, the line suggests a blue flower in hiding at Winterfell, and Jon's parentage would be a chink or weakness in the "armor" protecting him. Dany and his own siblings had to face being hunted because of their claims. Why would Jon escape this?

Wall of ice as courtesy - the books are replete with references to courtesy being protective like armor. Sansa's motto, "Courtesy is a lady's armor" could also be something Jon learns himself. To become "the shield that guards the realms of men" he should have to learn how courtesies can accomplish that. One fascinating thing that I've noticed is that the wording here between Sansa and Shae is exactly the same:

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Tyrion with Shae:

“For a time she said nothing at all. Tyrion tried to speak of other things, but he met a wall of sullen courtesy as icy and unyielding as the Wall he’d once walked in the north” - Tyrion, ASOS

Tyrion with Sansa:

“Gently, he spoke of Braavos, and met a wall of sullen courtesy as icy and unyielding as the Wall he had walked once in the north.” - Tyrion, ASOS

This wording is EXACTLY the same across different chapters and for different characters. I dont think this is GRRM accidentally using the same metaphor twice. I think it's a hint that ice=armor=courtesy, which is likely something that Jon will use with Dany, or at least what Sansa will use with her. There are also numerous references to "icy courtesy" when characters are keeping their true thoughts hidden. Icy/cool/frosty courtesy implies anger, dislike, hatred, or distance. Sansa uses it to avoid baring her feelings to her enemies. 

Wall of ice as Winterfell - Another idea is that the wall of ice refers to the two walls surrounding the castle, with the moat in between them. Winterfell's frozen moat is described in this way:

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“Winterfell’s inner wall was the older and taller of the two, its ancient grey crenellations rising one hundred feet high, with square towers at every corner. The outer wall, raised many centuries later, was twenty feet lower, but thicker and in better repair, boasting octagonal towers in place of square ones. Between the two walls was the moat, deep and wide … and frozen. Drifts of snow had begun to creep across its icy surface. Snow was building up along the battlements too, filling the gaps between the merlons and putting pale, soft caps on every tower top.” - Theon, ADWD

Theon had to post sentries on the inner walls when he attacked Winterfell, because if the castle rose against him he didn't want them to be shut out. He didn't account for a traitor within his own ranks. Likewise, there may be a weakness or flaw in Dany's belief that she has the North in her pocket.

Moreover, the sea is often described as glass, and glass=ice in many descriptions, which makes me wonder if the phrase is actually referring to water. This change in property is a device used in prophecies at the Oracle at Delphi. In one prophecy, a "wooden wall" that would protect Athens from invasion by Xerxes was actually a fleet of wooden ships. So a property of "ice" might not be the wall, but a frozen river, lake, or moat.

The flower growing in a chink in a wall also makes me think of ruins. GRRM appears to have a romance with ruined castles and cities:

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“Beautiful Volantis, city of fountains and flowers. But half the fountains were dry, half the pools cracked and stagnant. Flowering vines sent up creepers from every crack in the wall or pavement, and young trees had taken root in the walls of abandoned shops and roofless temples. And then there was the smell. It hung in the hot, humid air, rich, rank, pervasive. There’s fish in it, and flowers, and some elephant dung as well. Something sweet and something earthy and something dead and rotten.” - Tyrion, ADWD

“Jaime spied a watchtower on the heights ahead, growing taller with every stroke of the oars. Long before they were upon it, he knew that it stood abandoned, its weathered stones overgrown with climbing roses.” - Jaime, ASOS

This image in Volantis makes me wonder if its foreshadowing Winterfell becoming an abandoned, broken castle, which also has a reference to the smell of death ("sweetness"). The abandoned watchtower evokes Winterfell's broken tower, which also served a similar function before it was struck by lightning. The broken tower could also be foreshadowing for another storm/attack by fire, this time from dragons. Lighting also strikes the tower at Queenscrown as Jon is betraying Ygritte, while the Stark heir uses it to stay hidden/protected.

Wall of ice as the glass gardens - blowing snow is described as glass and showers of ice are described as "shards of broken glass," which causes Jon to think about how he could build glass gardens in the winter to grow food. Sansa building the snow castle is described as "the walls of the glass gardens." Most importantly, the glass gardens is where the blue winter roses grow. I think this part of Dany's vision could also be a reference to a Stark girl at the glass gardens of Winterfell. It is also a romantic wish that Jon has when he's with Ygritte. Jon Targaryen marrying a Stark girl and gaining more of the Lords' support could potentially destroy all of Dany's hopes of ruling the Seven Kingdoms. Jon refusing to marry his Targaryen aunt could be just as damaging. Moreover, burning food/nature/trees is also connected to "Dragons plant no trees," and the possibility that the heart tree might be destroyed by invaders from across the narrow sea, like the Andals and the First Men. With Bael the Bard, Rhaegar is a stand-in for the first part of the story. Could Dany be a stand-in for the next part? Bael invades the realm only to be killed by the son he created. This is quite Arthurian in its irony. 

The "wall of ice" could simply refer to the Wall, but I see it fitting with all of the above - Winterfell and the Wall as the armor protecting the realm, Winterfell and the Wall hiding the Targaryen heir, its people using fake courtesy if Dany arrives there, and the glass gardens and the blue rose being linked to theft - this time of a birthright. In combination with the direwolves, the realpolitik of winning North, and Dany's fire worship, I see evidence for Winterfell burning a third time.

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I don't see the Starks as the saviors of the kingdom.  They are actually the bad guys if they insist on this crap called northern independence.  A united kingdom, which Jon is never going to be able to pull off  because of his crimes at the wall and his deep-stead bias, would stand a better chance against the white walkers.  Unfortunately, Jon is playing politics and fighting to support Stark interest instead of doing a proper job at the wall.  If he wanted a united people he would have stayed out of Ramsay's business.

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4 minutes ago, Skahaz mo Kandaq said:

I don't see the Starks as the saviors of the kingdom.  They are actually the bad guys if they insist on this crap called northern independence.  A united kingdom, which Jon is never going to be able to pull off  because of his crimes at the wall and his deep-stead bias, would stand a better chance against the white walkers.  Unfortunately, Jon is playing politics and fighting to support Stark interest instead of doing a proper job at the wall.  If he wanted a united people he would have stayed out of Ramsay's business.

Right... because the North is so unified under the totally sane Bolton’s.

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8 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

The castle is almost certainly going to be contested, be it by Stannis' army, or the infighting among Bolton's forces. Fires are almost a given in castle warfare.

Use of ordinary fire to take the castle has already happened and would be redundant if the third time is a repeat of the second. I'm talking about dragonfire this time.

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5 minutes ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

Use of ordinary fire to take the castle has already happened and would be redundant if the third time is a repeat of the second. I'm talking about dragonfire this time.

Oeh, Dany's dragons? Ice dragons? Dragons living underneath Winterfell or ancient Barrowkings on skeletondragons?

I still like to see a Winterfell not as a historic name but as a foreshadowing name (or maybe both). It won't probably be intact if winter falls but when was it ever? A castle isn't a static entity. I agree that it will probably be destroyed again but it will rise again.

What's dead may never die. 

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12 minutes ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

Use of ordinary fire to take the castle has already happened and would be redundant if the third time is a repeat of the second. I'm talking about dragonfire this time.

Yes, I understand that. I just don't see how at least part of the castle would avoid burning if there's another battle within Winterfall's walls as a dragon seems highly unlikely to appear before then.

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First, props to doing your homework. 

I think Winterfell likely is going to be burned a third time, too. These kinds of things come in threes. The third time is usually markedly different from the rest. The first time it was part of an assassination attempt by a footpad sent by Joffrey. The second time it was a sack by Ramsay Bolton. The third time it will be part of Daenrys's attempt to conquer the North. 

I see Daenerys heading north to subdue Winterfell in her quest to unit the Westeros under her rule. Of course, I don't think Jon refusing Daenerys is what he does to hurt her, but mounting one of her dragons to prove that he is the Targaryen heir that does. 

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