US politics: Georgia on my mind

[IheartIheartTesla]

Why, yes it is.

[Mexal]

The enthusiasm gap is closed and it seems similar to a presidential year. Not sure who that benefits.

 

 

[DMC]

16 minutes ago, Mexal said:

The enthusiasm gap is closed and it seems similar to a presidential year. Not sure who that benefits.

What's concerning about that cross-tab is the 18-34 demo is 12% more enthusiastic than they've ever been in the four previous polls.  In terms of young people transferring such enthusiasm to turnout in midterms, I'll believe it when I see it.  Latinos are also particularly enthused, which should be good, but again, I'm concerned about how that transfers to turnout.

[Mexal]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

What's concerning about that cross-tab is the 18-34 demo is 12% more enthusiastic than they've ever been in the four previous polls.  In terms of young people transferring such enthusiasm to turnout in midterms, I'll believe it when I see it.  Latinos are also particularly enthused, which should be good, but again, I'm concerned about how that transfers to turnout.

You think the concerning part is the poll shows a higher enthusiasm with 18-34 demo but you don't believe they'll vote so therefore the enthusiasm might be overestimated? 

[DMC]

Just now, Mexal said:

You think the concerning part is the poll shows a higher enthusiasm with 18-34 demo but you don't believe they'll vote so therefore the enthusiasm might be overestimated? 

Correct.  Well, it's not that I don't believe they'll vote, it's just that I'm (highly) skeptical they'll vote at such a rate their enthusiasm suggests.

[Mexal]

Just now, DMC said:

Correct.  Well, it's not that I don't believe they'll vote, it's just that I'm (highly) skeptical they'll vote at such a rate their enthusiasm suggests.

Yea, that's fair. I think more will vote (mostly women and those affected by gun violence), just don't know if it'll be as high as the enthusiasm suggests.

[Mexal]

The completely unchecked fearmongering is at epic levels with Trump campaigning like he's running for President.

 

[DMC]

OTOH, this is my last election in the 18-34 demo, so it's put up or shut up time.

[Mexal]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

OTOH, this is my last election in the 18-34 demo, so it's put up or shut up time.

Same.

[IheartIheartTesla]

One of the reason for the polls being so close in Georgia (according to some) is "reverse migration", particularly into the outlying suburbs of Atlanta like Gwinnett. I've always wondered though, if the entirety of the US was homogeneous (in other words, each district looked exactly like the other) who would win elections most of the time.  Probably the Democrats....

 

[komantebunte]

Fuck if this ends up being a re-run of 2016 I'm going to punch a wall. Calling out Kavanaugh for the rapist piece of shit he obviously is has apparently motivated more Nazis to come out and vote, because God forbid a white man should be held accountable.

 My biggest worry is that months of blue wave talk has de-motivated millennials who assume the House is in the bag. It's not like this group needs another reason not to come out and vote.  

[Morpheus]

Trump already preparing to hog glory or shift blame- If Republicans win big or maintain control of both houses, it is because of him, if they lose one or both houses, it is all on Ryan and McConnell

[SeanF]

30 minutes ago, komantebunte said:

Fuck if this ends up being a re-run of 2016 I'm going to punch a wall. Calling out Kavanaugh for the rapist piece of shit he obviously is has apparently motivated more Nazis to come out and vote, because God forbid a white man should be held accountable.

 My biggest worry is that months of blue wave talk has de-motivated millennials who assume the House is in the bag. It's not like this group needs another reason not to come out and vote.  

I would be extremely surprised if the Democrats failed to take the House.

The Senate is another matter.

[Mexal]

40 minutes ago, komantebunte said:

Fuck if this ends up being a re-run of 2016 I'm going to punch a wall. Calling out Kavanaugh for the rapist piece of shit he obviously is has apparently motivated more Nazis to come out and vote, because God forbid a white man should be held accountable.

 My biggest worry is that months of blue wave talk has de-motivated millennials who assume the House is in the bag. It's not like this group needs another reason not to come out and vote.  

I don't know. I read a cross tab of a poll after Kavanaugh and I'm not sure that did much except drive more women to the Dems. What I think has happened is Trump making the midterms a referendum on him and his fearmongering, campaigning 5 times a week like he's running for President and constant media attention. It was always going to get closer.

[SeanF]

1 minute ago, Mexal said:

I don't know. I read a cross tab of a poll after Kavanaugh and I'm not sure that did much except drive more women to the Dems. What I think has happened is Trump making the midterms a referendum on him and his fearmongering, campaigning 5 times a week like he's running for President and constant media attention. It was always going to get closer.

Trump's popularity is well above its low point, but still only at about 43%, similar to Reagan in 1982, Clinton in 1994, and Obama in 2010, all of whom suffered reverses in this years (but who all got re-elected two years later).

[komantebunte]

57 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I would be extremely surprised if the Democrats failed to take the House.

The Senate is another matter.

I wouldn't be surprised at all. My main concern is that the Dems will pile up votes in places where it doesn't really matter and fail to win in the closer purple or light red districts........you know like in 2016.

Will this election be a standard mid term race where we would expect to see GOP voters be less motivated than Democrats? I'm beginning to doubt that's the case. Trump is a brilliant stump campaigner and it does look like the enthusiasm gap has closed somewhat. I'm hoping for a decent win in the House, enough to block Trump's agenda and close down the whole fucking government if need be, anything to put a break on that monster. But I'm expecting a narrower win, a single digit majority in the House and a GOP Senate is not what I was looking forward to six months ago. For a start we can say goodbye to any serious indictment push which I guess is why no one seems to be talking about it any more. The orange shit stain is going to last through til 2020 isn't he?

[Mexal]

7 minutes ago, komantebunte said:

I wouldn't be surprised at all. My main concern is that the Dems will pile up votes in places where it doesn't really matter and fail to win in the closer purple or light red districts........you know like in 2016.

Will this election be a standard mid term race where we would expect to see GOP voters be less motivated than Democrats? I'm beginning to doubt that's the case. Trump is a brilliant stump campaigner and it does look like the enthusiasm gap has closed somewhat. I'm hoping for a decent win in the House, enough to block Trump's agenda and close down the whole fucking government if need be, anything to put a break on that monster. But I'm expecting a narrower win, a single digit majority in the House and a GOP Senate is not what I was looking forward to six months ago. For a start we can say goodbye to any serious indictment push which I guess is why no one seems to be talking about it any more. The orange shit stain is going to last through til 2020 isn't he?

Of course he's going to last through 2020. Impeaching him doesn't do anything but fire up the GOP, especially given it has zero chance to get through the Senate. The best thing to come out of the midterms is a House majority with House committee heads that can actually run legitimate investigations into all the ongoing corruption.

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Of course he's going to last through 2020. Impeaching him doesn't do anything but fire up the GOP, especially given it has zero chance to get through the Senate. The best thing to come out of the midterms is a House majority with House committee heads that can actually run legitimate investigations into all the ongoing corruption.

Well, if we're talking best-case scenarios, I'd trade the House majority for a Senate every day of the week and twice on Sundays. If we're talking most realistic best-case scenarios, then I defer to your point.

[SeanF]

26 minutes ago, komantebunte said:

I wouldn't be surprised at all. My main concern is that the Dems will pile up votes in places where it doesn't really matter and fail to win in the closer purple or light red districts........you know like in 2016.

Will this election be a standard mid term race where we would expect to see GOP voters be less motivated than Democrats? I'm beginning to doubt that's the case. Trump is a brilliant stump campaigner and it does look like the enthusiasm gap has closed somewhat. I'm hoping for a decent win in the House, enough to block Trump's agenda and close down the whole fucking government if need be, anything to put a break on that monster. But I'm expecting a narrower win, a single digit majority in the House and a GOP Senate is not what I was looking forward to six months ago. For a start we can say goodbye to any serious indictment push which I guess is why no one seems to be talking about it any more. The orange shit stain is going to last through til 2020 isn't he?

The House can vote to impeach, but it's pointless unless the Democrats have a very big majority in the Senate.

[Mexal]

11 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Well, if we're talking best-case scenarios, I'd trade the House majority for a Senate every day of the week and twice on Sundays. If we're talking most realistic best-case scenarios, then I defer to your point.

As would I. But that's unlikely to happen so I'll take any majority at this point.

As an aside, probably wouldn't read into Trump's approval rating too much in these last few weeks.