Jump to content

Houses most likely to rally to Aegon and GC


Legitimate_Bastard

Recommended Posts

Something I think will be a big factor and hindrance in Jon Connington's and Aegon's arc is how many Westerosi nobles will be willing to work with the Golden Company. It's like Randyll Tarly/Mace Tyrell said ,"the Golden Company will lose, as they have every time they've crossed the Narrow Sea." Why would anyone want to ally themselves with them. There are some who may sill remember the War of the Ninepenny Kings. The Golden Company being associated with them at one point is a huge stain on their credibility. I feel like we can count most of Dorne out from wanting to be allies with an army that once backed the Ninepenny Kings, as well as many other lords.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My suspicion is Rowan is the house in the Reach that's clearly being foreshadowed to turn.  Tarly is really the only other legitimate candidate (Hightower and Redwyne are busy, no other houses are prominent enough in the narrative), and with Kevan and Pycelle dead (and Swyft in Braavos), Mace and Randyll basically are the small council.  It doesn't make sense for Tarly to abandon that position, at least until the situation is much more clear (at which point the Tyrells themselves will probably turn, at least those still living).

I wonder how much the Blackwater Bay houses have left to give.  I agree whomever is actually left in the area would be inclined to declare for Aegon, but all those houses seem to be spent after Stannis - even the Velaryons.  Waters should definitely reemerge as a factor though.  Still wonder if he's "delaying" some of the Golden Company. 

In a similar way, I can't really imagine too much aid coming from the Riverlands, at least directly.  If I was a riverlord I'd totally tell anyone "fuck off I'm tired man" at this point.

What would be interesting about the Vale is if they split allegiances during the second Dance.  Who knows what's gonna happen with Sansa, but something like the Lords Declarant..declaring for one faction and the 'Baelish houses' declaring for the other would be fun.

Seems as if Dorne is set up to join him once news reaches of Quentyn's death, but I've always wondered about the Yronwood's reaction.  Who does he blame for his heir's death?  And could the big man have a say?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Mooncalf said:

Something I think will be a big factor and hindrance in Jon Connington's and Aegon's arc is how many Westerosi nobles will be willing to work with the Golden Company. It's like Randyll Tarly/Mace Tyrell said ,"the Golden Company will lose, as they have every time they've crossed the Narrow Sea." Why would anyone want to ally themselves with them. There are some who may sill remember the War of the Ninepenny Kings. The Golden Company being associated with them at one point is a huge stain on their credibility. I feel like we can count most of Dorne out from wanting to be allies with an army that once backed the Ninepenny Kings, as well as many other lords.

If the Golden Company is going to take Storm's End - a castle that has never been taken by storm - this will sent a very loud marriage throughout Westeros.

And the crucial thing here is that Westeros is in a much worse shape than during any of the Blackfyre rebellions. 10,000 professional soldiers can make now a much greater difference than they could have two years ago... And people know that.

4 hours ago, DMC said:

My suspicion is Rowan is the house in the Reach that's clearly being foreshadowed to turn.  Tarly is really the only other legitimate candidate (Hightower and Redwyne are busy, no other houses are prominent enough in the narrative), and with Kevan and Pycelle dead (and Swyft in Braavos), Mace and Randyll basically are the small council.  It doesn't make sense for Tarly to abandon that position, at least until the situation is much more clear (at which point the Tyrells themselves will probably turn, at least those still living).

Again, Lord Titus Peake and Orton/Taena Merryweather are viable candidates from the Reach, too. The former because he has relations in the Golden Company, and the latter because Orton and/or his late father may have served with the Golden Company and them acting as Aegon-friendly agents would do much and more to explain Taena's strange behavior in AFfC. A truly ambitious woman would have brought her son to court and would have not participated in a plot that would most likely result in her husband's liege lord turning against their house...

But if they don't care about King Tommen at all their actions do make some sense.

4 hours ago, DMC said:

I wonder how much the Blackwater Bay houses have left to give.  I agree whomever is actually left in the area would be inclined to declare for Aegon, but all those houses seem to be spent after Stannis - even the Velaryons.  Waters should definitely reemerge as a factor though.  Still wonder if he's "delaying" some of the Golden Company. 

If Waters is still down in the Stepstones as 'the Lord of Waters' he should play no role in the immediate future.

The Celtigars still had something in ASoS. And Lord Monterys Velaryon may have a mother or other relations managing his affairs.

They won't be able to provide many troops, but their ships could help to get men from the Vale to Crackclaw Point, Maidenpool, or Duskendale.

4 hours ago, DMC said:

In a similar way, I can't really imagine too much aid coming from the Riverlands, at least directly.  If I was a riverlord I'd totally tell anyone "fuck off I'm tired man" at this point.

The Targaryen loyalists there will declare for Aegon - Bonifer Hasty and his nearly hundred knights should draw many men to their banners. Harwyn Plumm at Darry as well - he is a Targaryen descendant himself, after all. And Lord Mooton didn't involve himself in the war at all - or as little that it doesn't matter. He could raise a considerable amount of men.

Some smaller houses there also fought with Rhaegar at the Trident. In addition, declaring for Aegon should also help the Riverlords to (eventually) get support against the Lannisters. They may intend to bring the war to their lands after they have dealt with Daven, Genna, and the Freys. Declaring for Aegon should help them prevent that KL and the adjacent lands take them from the rear - which Aegon might do if he saw them as enemies.

4 hours ago, DMC said:

What would be interesting about the Vale is if they split allegiances during the second Dance.  Who knows what's gonna happen with Sansa, but something like the Lords Declarant..declaring for one faction and the 'Baelish houses' declaring for the other would be fun.

I don't see that happening at this point. I expect the news about Aegon to reach the Vale during the impending tourney. And all those young men there, eager to prove their strength and valor in battle, will insist that Lord Robert, Harry the Heir, and the Lord Protector lead them in that desire. Sansa may play a key role there.

4 hours ago, DMC said:

Seems as if Dorne is set up to join him once news reaches of Quentyn's death, but I've always wondered about the Yronwood's reaction.  Who does he blame for his heir's death?  And could the big man have a say?

Oh, I think Dorne will either join them because Arianne buys Aegon's story - or because she gets the hots for 'her new prince' - but I don't think the news about Quentyn will travel fast enough to influence that decision - the news about Dany's marriage to Hizdahr and her subsequent disappearance and alleged death has yet to come, too, and that will travel faster than the footnote about Quentyn. With Dany married, disappeared, or dead Quentyn cannot marry her, so Dorne can really no longer put its hope in Daenerys Targaryen. The only Targaryen they will have is Prince Aegon - and if he was genuine he would be a much better pretender for them, anyway, than Dany. He would be half-Martell who is likely going to marry his first cousin, Arianne Martell.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Again, Lord Titus Peake and Orton/Taena Merryweather are viable candidates from the Reach, too.

Right I think both are quite plausible, I just don't think either measure up to the payoff the reader should expect.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

If Waters is still down in the Stepstones as 'the Lord of Waters' he should play no role in the immediate future.

Suppose I should have been more clear, but I'm thinking more down the line than just the immediate future.  That's important to keep in mind with a lot of your response.  I expect Waters to play a role eventually, or at least I'd hope so.  Otherwise that was a huge waste of time.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

They won't be able to provide many troops, but their ships could help to get men from the Vale to Crackclaw Point, Maidenpool, or Duskendale.

If any of them had substantial ships why weren't they used by Stannis?  He's not a king to suffer vassals holding back on him.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The Targaryen loyalists there will declare for Aegon - Bonifer Hasty and his nearly hundred knights should draw many men to their banners. Harwyn Plumm at Darry as well - he is a Targaryen descendant himself, after all. And Lord Mooton didn't involve himself in the war at all - or as little that it doesn't matter. He could raise a considerable amount of men.

All good points, but I'm pretty bearish on how much men Hasty and Plumm could muster.  Mooten could I suppose, for some reason I always equate Maidenpool with the Crackclaw Point houses.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

In addition, declaring for Aegon should also help the Riverlords to (eventually) get support against the Lannisters. They may intend to bring the war to their lands after they have dealt with Daven, Genna, and the Freys. Declaring for Aegon should help them prevent that KL and the adjacent lands take them from the rear - which Aegon might do if he saw them as enemies.

This logic seems convoluted.  Again, I assume most riverlords wouldn't give a shit about Aegon, the Greyjoys, and everybody south of them killing each other - particularly considering how wartorn they already are.  Any individual riverlord isn't going to receive any better protection by declaring for any of such claimants.  The WOTFK should've taught them that.  Plus there's the question of how many hostages the Lannisters may still be holding.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't see that happening at this point.

Aye I don't either.  But eventually I hope they would be involved with a second Dance.  As you said, collectively they are pretty much the greatest power left.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, I think Dorne will either join them because Arianne buys Aegon's story - or because she gets the hots for 'her new prince' - but I don't think the news about Quentyn will travel fast enough to influence that decision

Again, agreed that Arianne will probably declare for Aegon before word reaches of Quentyn's death.  I just think that will reinforce their allegiance in the long-run - and has interesting prospects concerning the Yronwood's reaction.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
On 10/23/2018 at 1:47 AM, Legitimate_Bastard said:

He would be one hell of a warden.

I wonder, though. How would the other houses who see themselves as the rightful great house of the Reach react to such an action by Randyll. Like the Hightowers, Redwynes, Oakhearts etc. and would it precipitate them gravitating toward fAegon to try to stump Tarly plans? 

Afterward, it would be easiest to promote those who served most. House Tarly has put in work. It might be time they got paid for it. Other houses who risked less could surely understand how rewards are given out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...