What led Brandon to believe Rhaegar would be at the Red Keep?

[Bael's Bastard]

13 hours ago, Ckram said:

Based on these arguments you have laid, the man Rhaegar should be looking was Tywin, who was powerful, rich, openly supported him and hated Aerys. However, riding to Casterly Rock would be very unlikely.

Personally, I do believe that Rhaegar was plotting to try to restrict Aerys's powers prior to the Harrenhal Tourney, and I suspect that he had either collaborated with Tywin, or at some point let him in on his plans. But I think Rhaegar would have had a tough time bringing Tywin on board his plans after it seemed he had "chosen" Lyanna.

Perhaps Tywin might have been receptive to overtures from Rhaegar had he make clear his intentions to 1. remove Aerys's power 2. release Jaime from his vows 3. restore Tywin to Hand 4. wed Viserys to Cersei, but I am not certain. It might have been too late after he named Lyanna QOLAB and abducted her and seemingly "chose" her in whatever way he made her his woman.

I do suspect that Tywin never received the summons Rhaegar persuaded Aerys to send Tywin after the Battle of the Bells. Tywin and Kevan both seem to have been unaware of it, unless Tywin lied to Kevan, which seems unlikely to me. I don't see Aerys offering anything to Tywin to return except demands, but I would expect Rhaegar to know he would need to offer to restore Jaime to him and offer him a Targaryen groom for Cersei to even have a chance of luring Tywin back.

[Bael's Bastard]

13 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He called for Rhaegar to come out because Rhaegar had caused the wrong and it would be incumbent upon him to duel Brandon over the slight. Brandon doesn't have to know where Rhaegar is specifically (kidnappers don't always make their locations known), he's making a declaration in the most public place possible and Rhaegar will lose face if he doesn't respond, as will his father if he doesn't answer for Rhaegar.

I don't think that explains why Brandon appears to believe Rhaegar is at the Red Keep. I don't know Brandon's plan, but wounding Rhaegar's pride doesn't strike me as a likely reason for going to the Red Keep and threatening Rhaegar. It would be one thing if Brandon rode in there demanding to know where Rhaegar was, or calling for Aerys to summon Rhaegar. But the lone statement we have to go by indicates he believed Rhaegar was present at the Red Keep then and there.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

3 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

There's nothing logical about Rhaegar going there, or Brandon assuming he was going there. It goes against everything we, and the nobles in the story, know about Rhaegar living on Dragonstone for years and being at odds with Aerys even longer.

Maybe it doesn't have to be anything overly complicated. Maybe Brandon assumes Rhaegar went to King's Landing because it's winter in the realm.

For one, in the World Book, we are told that it's winter. 

The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs an gutters of every tower in the city.

If these are the conditions around King's Landing, then what are the conditions further north? If the Blackwater is hard frozen, then it must be about the same around Saltpans and Maidenpool which would make it more difficult for ships to get in and get out. Some ships could even be stuck in the ice. And we have no clue how long Rhaegar was hanging around the riverlands. 

It's not outside the realm of possibilities that Brandon seeing this thought that the place Rhaegar might go if he is cut off from Dragonstone is King's Landing. 

[Bael's Bastard]

5 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

I always like to think Littlefinger put the idea into Brandon's head both about the kidnapping and where to go to get him. Just seems like something he'd do to let a rival set himself up for failure.

We can't dismiss the possibility, but it seems highly unlikely to me.

A fortnight passed before Littlefinger was strong enough to leave Riverrun, but her lord father forbade her to visit him in the tower where he lay abed. Lysa helped their maester nurse him; she had been softer and shyer in those days. Edmure had called on him as well, but Petyr had sent him away. Her brother had acted as Brandon's squire at the duel, and Littlefinger would not forgive that. As soon as he was strong enough to be moved, Lord Hoster Tully sent Petyr Baelish away in a closed litter, to finish his healing on the Fingers, upon the windswept jut of rock where he'd been born. (AGOT: Catelyn VII)

Petyr had been badly wounded, and was presumably just strong enough to be sent away from Riverrun and back to the Fingers in a closed litter two weeks after taking his wounds from Brandon.

Even if he was coincidentally present or near enough to have witnessed or heard of Lyanna's kidnapping, and then been able to tell or relay a message to Brandon, why would Brandon listen to anything Littlefinger claimed?

We can't dismiss the possibility, but I think it requires perhaps a little too much coincidence for fifteen year old, badly wounded Petyr to have played a role in Brandon believing Rhaegar would be in KL.

[Bael's Bastard]

17 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Maybe it doesn't have to be anything overly complicated. Maybe Brandon assumes Rhaegar went to King's Landing because it's winter in the realm.

For one, in the World Book, we are told that it's winter. 

The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs an gutters of every tower in the city.

If these are the conditions around King's Landing, then what are the conditions further north? If the Blackwater is hard frozen, then it must be about the same around Saltpans and Maidenpool which would make it more difficult for ships to get in and get out. Some ships could even be stuck in the ice. And we have no clue how long Rhaegar was hanging around the riverlands. 

It's not outside the realm of possibilities that Brandon seeing this thought that the place Rhaegar might go if he is cut off from Dragonstone is King's Landing. 

Brandon assuming that Rhaegar is in KL is overly complicated, because it goes against everything we, and the nobles of Westeros, know about where Rhaegar lives, and his relationship with Aerys.

And no, I don't think the conditions preventing Rhaegar from taking a ship is a plausible suggestion, as Robert took a ship out of Gulltown, located in the same exact Bay of Crabs that Saltpans and Maidenpool are located.

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/images/3/3e/The_south_Adwd_map.jpg

[SFDanny]

2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Regardless of where Rhaegar actually is, Jaime's depiction of Brandon implies he believed Rhaegar was present at the Red Keep. It is difficult to ascertain what Brandon thought he was going to accomplish, or how he envisioned things going. The only real piece of information we have is that he rode into the Red Keep shouting for Rhaegar to come out and die. And IMO any explanation that he just assumed or deduced that Rhaegar would be there, or didn't really care whether or not Rhaegar was actually there, doesn't cut it.

My apologies, my friend, if I appear contrarian in this discussion. I don't mean to be. You could absolutely be right in your speculation on this topic, but as you well know we are in an area with too little information. The reality is we may never know the answer to this unless Martin writes a detailed history of Robert's Rebellion. It looks like that is not go to happen, and our answers will be found in bits and pieces strewn across different POVs. Will he ever give us all the details we want? I hope so, but think probably not.

The fun is in the discussion of the possibilities and why other informed readers think otherwise.

Sorry, also for the delay in responding. I've been under the weather and out of it for a while. I'll try to be more constructive later on today.

[Bael's Bastard]

1 minute ago, SFDanny said:

My apologies, my friend, if I appear contrarian in this discussion. I don't mean to be. You could absolutely be right in your speculation on this topic, but as you well know we are in an area with too little information. The reality is we may never know the answer to this unless Martin writes a detailed history of Robert's Rebellion. It looks like that is not go to happen, and our answers will be found in bits and pieces strewn across different POVs. Will he ever give us all the details we want? I hope so, but think probably not.

The fun is in the discussion of the possibilities and why other informed readers think otherwise.

Sorry, also for the delay in responding. I've been under the weather and out of it for a while. I'll try to be more constructive later on today.

No need for apologies, my friend. You put forth and argue what you consider to be the most likely based on your own research and understanding, and I respect that. That we disagree about some aspects of the story that are still a mystery or yet to be revealed does not diminish my enjoyment discussing with you. I always find discussion with you to be fruitful, and even when you don't change my mind, you cause me to consider the possibilities, and test and refine my own thoughts or beliefs on what I think is or might possibly be the case. No rush, I hope you feel better soon.

[Clegane'sPup]

I openly admit I do not have the faintest idea of how his goofy scenario plays out.

What I appreciate @Bael's Bastard   is that you supplied WoIAF and the App information. Seems to me long time posters forget that some new readers to the ASOIAF books do not know about the extra material.

When I (lurking) came to this site I wanted to know two things ---- who is Jon Snow's mother and is Jon Snow dead. Fortunately or unfortunately I stayed.

The writing of how Brandon heard of Lyanna's problem is right up there with how Eddard knew where to find his sister and how Eddard got his secret bastard back to WF.

Again I would like to complement you on the research and naming the various material that was involved.

The thread has been interesting. Many interesting ideas have been shared. For me there is one extreme ankle biter. That is Rhaegar's tower of joy. Yep, that old long used quote from the first book.

A Game of Thrones - Eddard X"    It would have to be his grandfather, for Jory's father was buried far to the south. Martyn Cassel had perished with the rest. Ned had pulled the tower down afterward, and used its bloody stones to build eight cairns upon the ridge. It was said that Rhaegar had named that place the tower of joy, but for Ned it was a bitter memory. They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived to ride away; Eddard Stark himself and the little crannogman, Howland Reed./

Not directed to you personally ---- Rhaegar was missing for a period of time ---  a mere spot and capitalized words appear on a map in DwD --- Tower of Joy --- located in Dorne.

I'm being facetious now, Brandon receives word about his sister, she had gone missing not ten leagues  (approximately 30 odd miles give or take) from HH. Brandon has left RR to meet up with his father who is coming from WF.

The questions in my mind are not only how did Brandon receive word & how did Eddard know where his sister is/was but how did Lyanna end up at Rhaegar's tower of joy which is located in Dorne?

Rhaegar's wife is a member of the royal family of Dorne. Would the Dornish be okay with Rhaegar stashing his mistress/wife/abductee on their land?

Anyway as has been said the logistics will not be answered and until martin releases another ASOIAF book or extra complimentary material (ca-ching) I am confudicatated by martin's cute little tricks of keeping the readers off balance but then again perhaps I am truly a . or perhaps if martin had released his material in a timely manner we would not be interacting on a fan site forum.

 

 

 

 

[bent branch]

On 10/29/2018 at 5:40 AM, Bael's Bastard said:

It can't be ruled out, but I don't see any evidence or hint for that. As it stands, Rhaegar is the most likely candidate to have been plotting against Aerys, not the Starks. And the Starks only become suspects, IMO wrongly, when Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna QOLAB causes Aerys's lickspittle small councilors Chelsted and Staunton to treat them as guilty by association to Rhaegar and his assumed plots.

Actually, it is clear that Stark, Baratheon, Tully, and Lannister were forming marriage alliances to serve as at least a counterweight to Targaryens' power. This was being set up by at least some of the maesters. This is what Barbrey Dustin was saying. Aerys stopped the Lannister/Tully alliance by naming Jaime to the Kingsguard. This was Aerys' way of taking Jaime hostage AND putting the kibosh on any possible Lannister/Tully alliance marriage. By taking Lyanna as a hostage, Aerys stops the Baratheon/Stark alliance marriage. This interpretation is really, really obvious. So the proposed marriage alliances were Stark/Baratheon, Stark/Tully, Tully/Lannister. By taking Jaime and Lyanna hostage, Aerys ends two of the three.

As far as Rhaegar and Aerys being at odds, that is only rumored. On the other hand, Aerys naming one of Rhaegar's close friends as Hand and putting Rhaegar at the head of the army indicates that the father/son relationship was intact if stormy.

I have said it many times and I will repeat it. We have heard only one side of this story, the rebels' side. Once we hear the Targaryens' side the story could be very different than what many people think now. And also, even crazy people have their reason for doing things and we still don't know why Aerys asked for Robert and Ned's heads.

[SFDanny]

Let me add some things. The simplest explanation of why Brandon thinks Rhaegar went to King's Landing is that was what he was told. @Bael's Bastard has proposed this comes in the form of a false trail laid by Rhaegar through comments he makes during the "kidnapping." I find this quite possible and like the echos of this we see in Catelyn's own taking of Tyrion some sixteen years later. 

But it doesn't have to be even this. Let me again point out that it is highly unlikely Lyanna is traveling unaccompanied. Most speculation, and it is still speculation, centers on her traveling to Riverrun to attend the upcoming wedding. As such, she would likely be under guard by Winterfell men assigned to that duty. I think it likely she is coming from the Vale, and others (such as @Ygrain) have suggested she is traveling from Harrenhal after having stayed there since the tourney. But the important part is she isn't going to travel alone. Those "swordpoints" are pointed at someone, and I doubt it's Lyanna herself.

What then do Winterfell guards do once the Crown Prince has taken their charge from them? I would suggest they do two things, if there are more than one of them. First, someone goes and tells the nearest Stark what happened, and also someone should try to follow Rhaegar's party to see where they are taking Lyanna. So all the wondering about why Brandon thinks Rhaegar took Lyanna to King's Landing could well be explained by a report to Brandon's party by a guard who trailed Lyanna and Rhaegar down the King's Road. This doesn't have to be complicated.

That doesn't negate the points I tried to make about Brandon's challenge to a duel and the purposeful location of where he makes the challenge. Hoster Tully has Brandon right. He is a "gallant fool" but that doesn't mean he is without a plan. It is very important here to separate what Brandon thought from what Rhaegar thought.

The question of why Rhaegar doesn't take other roads such as the road to Saltpans or Maidenpool or others is in someways interesting, but in other ways not. Most of the other roads to other ways to the sea and thence to Dragonstone are in the Riverlands. As such, Rhaegar would be traveling in territory at least nominally controlled by others, and those others are in my opinion are not only his political opponents, but part of a building alliance against his interests. The Tullys are hardly going to allow Rhaegar to travel through their lands with Lyanna taken against the Stark wishes. Can Rhaegar's party travel faster than Tully ravens? I don't think so.

This doesn't even deal with the possible problems with Elia if he were to bring Lyanna to Dragonstone.

That doesn't mean some of these suggestions don't have interesting aspects to them. That's especially true of Maidenpool and House Mooton. Could the party have escaped there quickly and received refuge from Ser Myles's family? Of course that would put House Mooton in the crosshairs of Tully ire. But here the important part of the story is what we know happened.

Rhaegar and Lyanna at some point disappeared, and it looks like this occurs as they travel south on the King's Road. This act, instead of showing up in a loyalist stronghold, shows a different agenda on the part of at least the Crown Prince than that of his father. For Aerys, he could hold Lyanna as a hostage, and Brandon as well after he so foolishly arrives in the Red Keep, and that would be an end to the marriage alliances and all the planning of the Starks and others. Rhaegar doesn't want to give his father that power, or he would have run straight to the Red Keep himself. But, obviously, he also doesn't want the Robert/Lyanna wedding to go through. 

Why then doesn't Rhaegar go to Dragonstone or some other seat of his faction's power? I think we have the answer in what happens to Elia and her children. When Rhaegar leaves Elia, Rhaenys, and Aegon at Dragonstone they have some immediate safety from Aerys control, but that is illusory as their removal to King's Landing shows. Unless, Rhaegar is prepared to come to blows with those bearing a royal summons he has to hide. And hide he does. He hides to prevent open conflict. And I think to let tempers cool. Which is where Rhaegar makes his mistake. He doesn't count on Brandon's challenge or Aerys's summons to the party's fathers to answer to charges of treason. But here the important point is what does Rhaegar's choice of hiding tell us about his mindset. It tells us he breaks with his father and he fulfills his promise at Harrenhal to step in to prevent Robert and Lyanna's marriage. In so doing he summons a whirlwind of anger, but not a unified anger. And as long as the party remains hidden he isn't likely to suffer much in the way of consequences to himself or to Lyanna.

I hope this adds something to the discussion. Off to bed. Good night all.

Oh, and one other point. Or rather two. First, Martin has made it clear that the Martells are not "ok" with Rhaegar's taking of Lyanna. Whatever Elia may think, the two brothers think their brother-in-law is treating their sister badly, and they have every reason to wonder it this means he might set her and her children aside. Second, please correct me if I'm wrong, but my reading of the maps Martin has published has the Tower of Joy outside of Dorne. Yes, it has the Red Mountains of Dorne in its background, but I believe it is in the Reaches. I would love to know which local lord controls this land, but I don't think we know.

 

[wia]

13 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

If these are the conditions around King's Landing, then what are the conditions further north? If the Blackwater is hard frozen, then it must be about the same around Saltpans and Maidenpool which would make it more difficult for ships to get in and get out. Some ships could even be stuck in the ice. And we have no clue how long Rhaegar was hanging around the riverlands. 

I don't think there would've been a problem with sea traveling in terms of ice. Rivers freeze at much higher temperatures compared to seas. It's not like fishing and other non-icebreaker boat-related industries stop functioning every winter in northern countries in our world. 

Could be stroms or other things, but I'm not sure how it would be possible to determine that there are storms at sea from the area around Harrenhall.

 

9 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Rhaegar's wife is a member of the royal family of Dorne. Would the Dornish be okay with Rhaegar stashing his mistress/wife/abductee on their land?

Seeing how they refused to participate in the war till Aerys got Elia and her children as hostages, I'd guess they were a little bit unhappy with Rhaegar at that moment. )))

[Ralphis Baratheon]

6 hours ago, bent branch said:

As far as Rhaegar and Aerys being at odds, that is only rumored. On the other hand, Aerys naming one of Rhaegar's close friends as Hand and putting Rhaegar at the head of the army indicates that the father/son relationship was intact if stormy.

I doubt Rhaegar was happy that Aerys was using his wife and prophecy kids as hostages. At any rate Aerys most likely needed a Targaryen to fight in the war and lead the loyalist army at the Trident for the sake of morale and to not have the royal House look weak and divided. Even before the Trident Robert was fighting and winning all but one battle, gaining allies, glory and boosting his reputation as a leader. All while Rhaegar was missing in action and Aerys was punishing loyalist lords that were unlucky enough to be blamed for the Crown army defeats. Had the Crown won the war without Rhaegar ever being seen or heard from during the conflict it would look as if Rhaegar did not support his House or was too scared to fight for it. Aerys and Rhaegar were very much stuck with each other even if they didn't want to be because of how the whole rebellion started. Rhaegar can't call a council meeting and make changes until after the war was won as he told Jaime before he left.

[SFDanny]

11 hours ago, bent branch said:

Actually, it is clear that Stark, Baratheon, Tully, and Lannister were forming marriage alliances to serve as at least a counterweight to Targaryens' power. This was being set up by at least some of the maesters. This is what Barbrey Dustin was saying. Aerys stopped the Lannister/Tully alliance by naming Jaime to the Kingsguard. This was Aerys' way of taking Jaime hostage AND putting the kibosh on any possible Lannister/Tully alliance marriage. By taking Lyanna as a hostage, Aerys stops the Baratheon/Stark alliance marriage. This interpretation is really, really obvious. So the proposed marriage alliances were Stark/Baratheon, Stark/Tully, Tully/Lannister. By taking Jaime and Lyanna hostage, Aerys ends two of the three.

I agree absolutely.

11 hours ago, bent branch said:

As far as Rhaegar and Aerys being at odds, that is only rumored. On the other hand, Aerys naming one of Rhaegar's close friends as Hand and putting Rhaegar at the head of the army indicates that the father/son relationship was intact if stormy.

That's one hell of a rumor. It keeps coming up over, and over, and over again in the books. Martin tells us not all is well between Father and Son. No, I'm afraid this has gone well beyond rumor and has become the established fact. Rhaegar didn't admit to trying to call a council to jaime because he thought Aerys's rule was going along swimmingly. Yandel's description comparing the factional dispute between Aerys and Rhaegar to the time of the Dance of the Dragons kind of nails the coffin lid shut on all being well between father and son. And Rhaegar didn't hide where his father couldn't find him because he was supporting Aerys's actions. No, this doesn't pass the laugh test anymore, if it ever did.

What is true is that the relationship is not static. It changes over time. We do see periods where Father and Son work together. Periods where their interests in saving Targaryen rule align. Of course, @Ralphis Baratheon's point is also true. Holding Rhaegar's family hostage changes one's view of the closeness of Rhaegar and the king. I've long argued this is not just an act against Dorne, but is also the basis for which Rhaegar finally comes north to help with the war. Whatever the nature of Rhaegar's and Elia's relationship, the fact Aerys is willing to hold Rhaegar's children as hostages is a fundamental change in their relationship. You can't hold a knife to Rhaenys and Aegon's throats and not expect Rhaegar to finally understand the depths of Aerys's madness. Which is basically what Lord Jon tells us. 

11 hours ago, bent branch said:

I have said it many times and I will repeat it. We have heard only one side of this story, the rebels' side. Once we hear the Targaryens' side the story could be very different than what many people think now. And also, even crazy people have their reason for doing things and we still don't know why Aerys asked for Robert and Ned's heads.

Here we agree.

[Bael's Bastard]

13 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I openly admit I do not have the faintest idea of how his goofy scenario plays out.

What I appreciate @Bael's Bastard   is that you supplied WoIAF and the App information. Seems to me long time posters forget that some new readers to the ASOIAF books do not know about the extra material.

When I (lurking) came to this site I wanted to know two things ---- who is Jon Snow's mother and is Jon Snow dead. Fortunately or unfortunately I stayed.

The writing of how Brandon heard of Lyanna's problem is right up there with how Eddard knew where to find his sister and how Eddard got his secret bastard back to WF.

Again I would like to complement you on the research and naming the various material that was involved.

The thread has been interesting. Many interesting ideas have been shared. For me there is one extreme ankle biter. That is Rhaegar's tower of joy. Yep, that old long used quote from the first book.

A Game of Thrones - Eddard X"    It would have to be his grandfather, for Jory's father was buried far to the south. Martyn Cassel had perished with the rest. Ned had pulled the tower down afterward, and used its bloody stones to build eight cairns upon the ridge. It was said that Rhaegar had named that place the tower of joy, but for Ned it was a bitter memory. They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived to ride away; Eddard Stark himself and the little crannogman, Howland Reed./

Not directed to you personally ---- Rhaegar was missing for a period of time ---  a mere spot and capitalized words appear on a map in DwD --- Tower of Joy --- located in Dorne.

I'm being facetious now, Brandon receives word about his sister, she had gone missing not ten leagues  (approximately 30 odd miles give or take) from HH. Brandon has left RR to meet up with his father who is coming from WF.

The questions in my mind are not only how did Brandon receive word & how did Eddard know where his sister is/was but how did Lyanna end up at Rhaegar's tower of joy which is located in Dorne?

Rhaegar's wife is a member of the royal family of Dorne. Would the Dornish be okay with Rhaegar stashing his mistress/wife/abductee on their land?

Anyway as has been said the logistics will not be answered and until martin releases another ASOIAF book or extra complimentary material (ca-ching) I am confudicatated by martin's cute little tricks of keeping the readers off balance but then again perhaps I am truly a . or perhaps if martin had released his material in a timely manner we would not be interacting on a fan site forum.

@Clegane'sPup

Thank you. Though I must fill in the blanks with speculation, as any of us who attempt to understand this story with all its gaps in knowledge and information do, it is important that we consider any and all information we do have on a topic, while also taking into account that that information might be susceptible to being misunderstood or misinterpreted by us, or misremembered by whatever source provides it to us.

The Tower of Joy appears to be located in or around the Dornish Marches, by the border of Dorne and the Stormlands . In other words, around the border between the region of the family of his Martell wife and the region of his Baratheon cousin, whose betrothed he abducted. For whatever reason, Rhaegar brought Lyanna to a spot located on the border between the cousin and the family of his wife he pissed off with his actions.

No, I don't think either the Martells or Baratheons would have been okay with Rhaegar going into/through and hiding out/stashing Lyanna in their lands.

Quote

Ned's army did not accompany him to Dorne, no. There were no battles in Dorne during Robert's Rebellion, though doubtless there were minor skirmishes along the borders. But it's not entirely correct that the Martells stayed out of the war. Rhaegar had Dornish troops with him on the Trident, under the command of Prince Lewyn of the Kingsguard. However, the Dornishmen did not support him as strongly as they might have, in part because of anger at his treatment of Elia, in part because of Prince Doran's innate caution. 

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/The_Baratheon_Brothers/

Taking all that into account, my proposed route attempts to explain how Rhaegar could have abducted Lyanna in the Riverlands near Harrenhal, and how Lyanna could have ended up in the border regions of Dorne and the Stormlands at the Tower of Joy. Among Rhaegar's six thus far named friends and/or confidants are two men from the Riverlands, two men from the Stormlands, and two men from Dorne:

Riverlands
- Ser Oswell Whent of Harrenhal
- Set Myles Mooton of Maidenpool

Stormlands
- Lord Jon Connington of Griffin's Roost
- Ser Richard Lonmouth (according to The Citadel)

Dorne
- Ser Arthur Dayne of Starfall
- Ser Lewyn Martell of Sunspear

I believe Whent and Mooton would be useful in getting Rhaegar and his party out of the Riverlands as soon as possible after the abduction. Out of the remaining four, I think Lord Connington and Dayne would be most useful in getting Rhaegar and his party back onto the mainland and to the Tower of Joy.

I favor Griffin's Roost because Jon is actually Lord of his castle, which sits on the coast of Shipbreaker Bay, and it would allow them to re-enter the mainland just south of Robert's Storm's End. From there, perhaps they might have traveled to Summerhall, which is west of Griffin's Roost, near the foothills of the Red Mountains of Dorne that make their way down south, including around where the Tower of Joy would be.

If Rhaegar and his party did indeed leave the Riverlands via the Bay of Crabs, and re-entered the mainland via Shipbreaker Bay, they very well might have come close to crossing paths with Robert himself, who left the Vale through Gulltown on the Bay of Crabs to return to Storm's End on Shipbreaker Bay. 

Depending on how long everything took, Robert very well could have been battling his way out of Gulltown as or soon after Rhaegar and his party were exiting the Bay of Crabs, or entering Shipbreaker Bay as or soon after Rhaegar and his party were entering Shipbreaker Bay.

And if Rhaegar and his party did re-enter the mainland through Griffin's Roost, and stop by/at Summerhall on their way to the Tower of Joy, it very well might have been no more than weeks before Robert met and defeated Lords Caffern, Fell, and Grandison there in his first major battle of the rebellion after calling his banners.

All speculation, but all possible, and as far as I know can't be ruled out as contradictory to other information we have.

[Bael's Bastard]

19 hours ago, bent branch said:

Actually, it is clear that Stark, Baratheon, Tully, and Lannister were forming marriage alliances to serve as at least a counterweight to Targaryens' power. This was being set up by at least some of the maesters. This is what Barbrey Dustin was saying.

@bent branch

That is not actually clear. No such thing is ever stated, least of all by Barbrey Dustin, the only source for the claim that Lord Rickard had "southron ambitions." That is not a fact, but a theory based on an interpretation of an opinion of one character.

A character who never states or indicates that she believes, let alone knows, that Lord Rickard's "southron ambitions" had any negative intent against the Targaryens.

Nor does she ever state or indicate that she believes that any friendships or betrothals between Lord Hoster, Lord Robert, Lord Jon, or Lord Tywin had any negative intent against the Targaryens. 

One person, Barbrey Dustin, claims that one betrothal, Brandon Stark and Catelyn Tully, was the notion of one maester, Walys.

She says nothing about the Brandon/Catelyn betrothal being Hoster's maester's notion.
She says nothing about the Lyanna/Robert betrothal being Walys's notion or Cressan's notion.
She says nothing about the Lysa/Jaime negotiations being Hoster's maester's notion or Tywin's maester's notion.

Personally, I do think there was a faction of maesters at the Citadel who wished to see the end of the Targaryen regime. And I would not be surprised if Grand Maester Pycelle, who so wished to see Lord Tywin sit the Iron Throne, belonged to that faction. But I see no proof of what you are asserting.

Barbrey Dustin certainly doesn't say what you claim she was saying.

19 hours ago, bent branch said:

Aerys stopped the Lannister/Tully alliance by naming Jaime to the Kingsguard. This was Aerys' way of taking Jaime hostage AND putting the kibosh on any possible Lannister/Tully alliance marriage. By taking Lyanna as a hostage, Aerys stops the Baratheon/Stark alliance marriage. This interpretation is really, really obvious. So the proposed marriage alliances were Stark/Baratheon, Stark/Tully, Tully/Lannister. By taking Jaime and Lyanna hostage, Aerys ends two of the three.

What you see as obvious is your theory based on your interpretation, but not a demonstrable fact.

Aerys was a paranoid and malicious madman. His interpretation of a thing is not necessarily, and is more likely not to be, an accurate indication of the actual intent behind it.

And even if Aerys's motivation went beyond humiliating Tywin by taking his golden boy away from him and leaving him with the deformed son he hated, he only prevented one possible match, not the possibility of a Lannister/Tully marriage alliance.

Had Hoster and/or Tywin been so intent on a marriage alliance, and seen it as so important to their supposed plans against the Targaryens, they could have wed Cersei and Edmure (heir), or Tywin (lord) and Lysa, or even Tyrion (should have been heir) and Lysa.

But we know that neither Tywin nor Hoster wanted a marriage alliance by any means necessary. Once Jaime was off the table, that was the end of it, and not because there were no other possible matches.

Aerys didn't take Lyanna hostage, Rhaegar did. And since Ned and Robert had already been best friends for half or more of their lives when Rhaegar abducted Lyanna, she, or any marriage tie, wasn't actually essential to the Stark/Baratheon alliance.

But Aerys certainly did put, or at least almost succeeded in putting, an end to the Stark/Tully alliance by killing Brandon, as had Ned and Jon not agreed to wed Catelyn and Lysa months into Robert's Rebellion, Hoster likely would have stayed out of the war, or joined the Targaryens.

Which only helps to illustrate how tenuous the claim of a pre-Harrenhal great lords alliance against the Targaryens actually is, when neither neither Tywin nor Hoster were actually committed to any such thing, both waiting until well into the war to join.

What is left, then, is an alliance between Jon Arryn, Ned Stark, and Robert Baratheon, made up of father-son, brother-brothers bonds established as early as 271-272 AC, when none of these men or their families had cause to have issue with the Targaryens.

Men who, in fact, had no known cause to have issue with the Targaryens until Rhaegar created a scandal around Lyanna in late 281 AC, and when Rhaegar abducted Lyanna and Aerys murdered Lord Rickard, Brandon, and Elbert in 282 AC.

19 hours ago, bent branch said:

As far as Rhaegar and Aerys being at odds, that is only rumored. On the other hand, Aerys naming one of Rhaegar's close friends as Hand and putting Rhaegar at the head of the army indicates that the father/son relationship was intact if stormy.

It's not only a rumor. We know it from Barristan Selmy, who served on Aerys II's KG the entirety of his twenty year reign, and who single-handedly rescued Aerys from certain death at Duskendale in 277 AC.

The memory was still bitter. Old Lord Whent had announced the tourney shortly after a visit from his brother, Ser Oswell Whent of the Kingsguard. With Varys whispering in his ear, King Aerys became convinced that his son was conspiring to depose him, that Whent's tourney was but a ploy to give Rhaegar a pretext for meeting with as many great lords as could be brought together. Aerys had not set foot outside the Red Keep since Duskendale, yet suddenly he announced that he would accompany Prince Rhaegar to Harrenhal, and everything had gone awry from there. (ADWD: Kingbreaker)

Aerys's decision to name Rhaegar's friend Lord Jon Connington his Hand, and to later charge Rhaegar with leading the royalist forces at the Trident, do not indicate that they were not at odds.

Aerys didn't trust Jaime, yet he kept him closer than all other KG, and actually commanded him to bring him Tywin's head to prove his loyalty. Aerys didn't trust Lewyn, but he charged him with commanding the Dornish forces at the Trident. That Aerys charged Rhaegar with commanding the Targaryen forces does not mean he did not distrust him, just that he thought he could keep him in his lane.

We don't know exactly what Aerys was thinking when he did that, but we know that, though he could conceive of these people plotting against him, he also believed he could threaten or manipulate them into serving him.

He used the threat of violence to Elia against Lewyn and the Martells. He used the threat of violence to Jaime to keep Tywin at bay. He used Jaime's reverence of his vows, if not threats to do violence, against him. And he very well may have used the threat of violence to Rhaenys and Aegon, perhaps even Elia, or even Rhaelle, against Rhaegar.

Whatever the case, the rift between Aerys and Rhaegar is not only a rumor. The exact nature of that relationship, and whether it was a consistently negative thing, or a crazy back and forth thing on the part of Aerys, remains to be seen.

19 hours ago, bent branch said:

I have said it many times and I will repeat it. We have heard only one side of this story, the rebels' side. Once we hear the Targaryens' side the story could be very different than what many people think now. And also, even crazy people have their reason for doing things and we still don't know why Aerys asked for Robert and Ned's heads.

None of which has anything to do with Lord Rickard's motivations, or the motivations of the other great lords, let alone demonstrates or proves that any or all had negative intentions against the Targaryens with their friendships and betrothals.

If you were proposing that Aerys likely viewed these friendships and betrothals, and negotiations, as threatening, I would be more likely to agree with that possibility. But the claim of Lord Rickard and/or the other great lords having such an intention pre-Harrenhal when they made or negotiated their betrothals, or way back in 271-272 AC when the core relationships between Jon, Ned, and Robert were formed through fostering? I can't agree with that based on what we currently have to work with.

[Bael's Bastard]

14 hours ago, SFDanny said:

But it doesn't have to be even this. Let me again point out that it is highly unlikely Lyanna is traveling unaccompanied. Most speculation, and it is still speculation, centers on her traveling to Riverrun to attend the upcoming wedding. As such, she would likely be under guard by Winterfell men assigned to that duty. I think it likely she is coming from the Vale, and others (such as @Ygrain) have suggested she is traveling from Harrenhal after having stayed there since the tourney. But the important part is she isn't going to travel alone. Those "swordpoints" are pointed at someone, and I doubt it's Lyanna herself.

@SFDanny

I think our best guess is that Lyanna was on her way to Riverrun for Brandon's wedding, and that she was traveling with a party. I prefer the idea that she was traveling to Riverrun with Lord Rickard's party, as Arya and Sansa traveled to King's Landing with Lord Eddard's party in AGOT: Sansa I, though I don't dismiss other possibilities.

But I disagree with the idea that she would have necessarily been under personal guard, and I think Arya and Sansa in AGOT: Sansa I demonstrate to us just how easily Lyanna could have been found on her own, or with just a few companions, even if she was traveling with a Lord Rickard and a party of hundreds of people.

In AGOT: Sansa I, Sansa leaves the Inn at the Crossroads, where less than a third of King Robert's party of more than four hundred are able to be accommodated, and goes looking for Arya, all on her own except for Lady.

Sansa finds Arya on the banks of the Trident, where she is all on her own except for Nymeria. It is also made clear that Arya has been riding off with Mycah throughout the journey south from Winterfell, despite being told by Ned not to leave the column.

Despite her best attempts to get Arya to return with her, Sansa returns to the Inn, all on her own except for Lady, to find that the small council had sent an honor guard including Barristan Selmy and Renly Baratheon to escort them the rest of the way to King's Landing.

After Cersei postpones the planned ride in the wheelhouse, Joffrey and Sansa then ride off all on their own "east along the north bank of the Trident with no company save Lion's Tooth... They explored the caves by the riverbank, and tracked a shadowcat to its lair, and when they grew hungry, Joffrey found a holdfast by its smoke and told them to fetch food and wine for their prince and his lady. They dined on trout fresh from the river, and Sansa drank more wine than she had ever drunk before."

In fact, all on their own, Joffrey and Sansa ride all the way from the Inn at the Crosseoads to the battleground where Robert killed Rhaegar. Which is where they find Arya and Mycah, all on their own, playing at knights with wooden sticks, not unlike Bran's vision of Lyanna and Benjen dueling with broken branches.

So while I absolutely agree that Lyanna wouldn't have been traveling to Riverrun all by herself, I don't think she would have had much difficulty riding off from the camp or column at times, whether on her own, or with just a companion or two, just as Arya and Sansa did in AGOT.

What swordpoints are you referring to? "If he loved you, he would come and carry you off at swordpoint, as Rhaegar carried off his northern girl"? If so, that seems to be pretty clearly saying that Lyanna was the one carried off at swordpoint, with the sword(s) presumably being Rhaegar's.

14 hours ago, SFDanny said:

What then do Winterfell guards do once the Crown Prince has taken their charge from them? I would suggest they do two things, if there are more than one of them. First, someone goes and tells the nearest Stark what happened, and also someone should try to follow Rhaegar's party to see where they are taking Lyanna. So all the wondering about why Brandon thinks Rhaegar took Lyanna to King's Landing could well be explained by a report to Brandon's party by a guard who trailed Lyanna and Rhaegar down the King's Road. This doesn't have to be complicated.

It would depend on whether Lyanna was alone, or if she wasn't, who was with her. Even if she was not alone, she could have been with someone like Benjen, or a boy or girl close in age to her who wasn't equipped to do much other than run back to the camp or column and convey what they witnessed. But even if Lyanna had been with a witness capable of following Rhaegar, short of trailing Rhaegar and his party all the way back to King's Landing and bringing word back, that still wouldn't explain the assumption that Rhaegar had gone to KL, as the coast east of the Kingsroad is full of places Rhaegar and his party could have left for Dragonstone after traveling on the Kingsroad for some amount of time (Saltpans, Maidenpool, Rook's Rest, Duskendale). I think Brandon needs a good reason to believe Rhaegar is at KL, and I don't think seeing him ride towards or down the Kingsroads give him reason to make or believe that assumption.

14 hours ago, SFDanny said:

The question of why Rhaegar doesn't take other roads such as the road to Saltpans or Maidenpool or others is in someways interesting, but in other ways not. Most of the other roads to other ways to the sea and thence to Dragonstone are in the Riverlands. As such, Rhaegar would be traveling in territory at least nominally controlled by others, and those others are in my opinion are not only his political opponents, but part of a building alliance against his interests. The Tullys are hardly going to allow Rhaegar to travel through their lands with Lyanna taken against the Stark wishes. Can Rhaegar's party travel faster than Tully ravens? I don't think so.

This doesn't even deal with the possible problems with Elia if he were to bring Lyanna to Dragonstone.

That doesn't mean some of these suggestions don't have interesting aspects to them. That's especially true of Maidenpool and House Mooton. Could the party have escaped there quickly and received refuge from Ser Myles's family? Of course that would put House Mooton in the crosshairs of Tully ire. But here the important part of the story is what we know happened.

It is important to remember that the loyalty of the Riverlands was divided between their king and their lord during the war. We know that the Darrys (south of the Trident, where Ned, Robert, and the king's party are staying when Arya is found days later), Mootons (on the Bay of Crabs, the house of one of Rhaegar's closest friends), and Rygers fought for Rhaegar on the Trident.

We know that the Freys stayed out until the end of the Battle of the Trident. We have no clue what side some of the most powerful Riverlands houses like the Blackwoods, Brackens, and Whents fought on. But it is suspected that Lord Whent, brother of Ser Oswell, might have collaborated with Rhaegar to put on the Harrenhal Tourney.

So all the riverlords were not necessarily at the beck and call of the Tullys, especially when it comes to acting against the royal family. And houses like the Mootons and Darrys, who would eventually fight under Rhaegar, happened to be located closer to the eastern Riverlands, where the abduction occurred. 

Not to mention the fact that the Tullys themselves did not help the Starks in the actual war until the Battle of the Bells, so I am not sure how much their bannermen can be expected to have done on behalf of the Starks after Lyanna's abduction by Prince Rhaegar. We don't even know that the Tullys did much of anything to track Lyanna down. And Rhaegar might have had a nice little chunk of time after Lyanna's abduction before Hoster would have received any ravens, let alone been in a position to send his own.

Whatever the case, I think Rhaegar had to make it out of the Riverlands as quickly as possible. I am not certain they would have found refuge even with the Mootons, let alone with the Whents. I am not sure whether the lords of those houses would have looked the other way if they had become of Rhaegar, if not for Hoster Tully than for Aerys, who was still their king. But Rhaegar might have benefited from the chaos of the situation, and a situation in which witnesses and houses might have believed there were two wills at work (Targaryens and Starks) rather than possibly three (Rhaegar, Starks, Aerys).

Lots of speculation, but just considering the possibilities.

I don't think bringing Lyanna to Dragonstone was likely to have been an option in Rhaegar's mind, it is just something that others would have had to consider, since that was his actual home and stronghold. Perhaps Rhaegar even attempted to make for Dragonstone, but saw Aerys's men there as they took possession of Elia and the children or something along those lines. Not sure.

14 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Rhaegar and Lyanna at some point disappeared, and it looks like this occurs as they travel south on the King's Road. This act, instead of showing up in a loyalist stronghold, shows a different agenda on the part of at least the Crown Prince than that of his father. For Aerys, he could hold Lyanna as a hostage, and Brandon as well after he so foolishly arrives in the Red Keep, and that would be an end to the marriage alliances and all the planning of the Starks and others. Rhaegar doesn't want to give his father that power, or he would have run straight to the Red Keep himself. But, obviously, he also doesn't want the Robert/Lyanna wedding to go through. 

Why then doesn't Rhaegar go to Dragonstone or some other seat of his faction's power? I think we have the answer in what happens to Elia and her children. When Rhaegar leaves Elia, Rhaenys, and Aegon at Dragonstone they have some immediate safety from Aerys control, but that is illusory as their removal to King's Landing shows. Unless, Rhaegar is prepared to come to blows with those bearing a royal summons he has to hide. And hide he does. He hides to prevent open conflict. And I think to let tempers cool. Which is where Rhaegar makes his mistake. He doesn't count on Brandon's challenge or Aerys's summons to the party's fathers to answer to charges of treason. But here the important point is what does Rhaegar's choice of hiding tell us about his mindset. It tells us he breaks with his father and he fulfills his promise at Harrenhal to step in to prevent Robert and Lyanna's marriage. In so doing he summons a whirlwind of anger, but not a unified anger. And as long as the party remains hidden he isn't likely to suffer much in the way of consequences to himself or to Lyanna.

I hope this adds something to the discussion. Off to bed. Good night all.

Oh, and one other point. Or rather two. First, Martin has made it clear that the Martells are not "ok" with Rhaegar's taking of Lyanna. Whatever Elia may think, the two brothers think their brother-in-law is treating their sister badly, and they have every reason to wonder it this means he might set her and her children aside. Second, please correct me if I'm wrong, but my reading of the maps Martin has published has the Tower of Joy outside of Dorne. Yes, it has the Red Mountains of Dorne in its background, but I believe it is in the Reaches. I would love to know which local lord controls this land, but I don't think we know.

Whatever Elia knows or thinks about things, Dorne definitely looks at Rhaegar's treatment of Elia as an insult, and it takes Elia's life being threatened for them to send Rhaegar whatever support they do send.

TWOIAF maps show the TOJ just within Dorne's border in the Prince's Pass. It seems to basically be close to the border area between Dorne and the Stormlands, perhaps in or around the Dornish Marches, so it could be a highly disputed region between the Dornish and the Stormlands Marcher Lords.

Thanks, as always, for the interesting discussion.

[Daemon The Black Dragon]

On 10/30/2018 at 3:13 PM, Bael's Bastard said:

Brandon assuming that Rhaegar is in KL is overly complicated, because it goes against everything we, and the nobles of Westeros, know about where Rhaegar lives, and his relationship with Aerys.

And no, I don't think the conditions preventing Rhaegar from taking a ship is a plausible suggestion, as Robert took a ship out of Gulltown, located in the same exact Bay of Crabs that Saltpans and Maidenpool are located.

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/images/3/3e/The_south_Adwd_map.jpg

You think every noble knew how bad the relationship between Aerys and Rhaegar was? Whoever told Brandon about Rhaegar taking Lyanna, could've also told Brandon that Rhaegar and company were headed south towards KL.

[Bael's Bastard]

12 hours ago, Daemon The Black Dragon said:

You think every noble knew how bad the relationship between Aerys and Rhaegar was? Whoever told Brandon about Rhaegar taking Lyanna, could've also told Brandon that Rhaegar and company were headed south towards KL.

@Daemon The Black Dragon

I don't know what every noble knew about the extent of how bad the relationship between Aerys and Rhaegar was, or what anecdotes about the relationship between Aerys and Rhaegar were widely known, but I do think every noble knew that Aerys and Rhaegar had had a poor relationship for years, and that Rhaegar had lived on Dragonstone, not the Red Keep, for years.

Quote

Meanwhile, King Aerys was becoming ever more estranged from his own son and heir. Early in the year 279 AC, Rhaegar Targaryen, Prince of Dragonstone, was formally betrothed to Princess Elia Martell, the delicate young sister of Doran Martell, Prince of Dorne. They were wed the following year, in a lavish ceremony at the Great Sept of Baelor in King's Landing, but Aerys II did not attend. He told the small council that he feared an attempt upon his life if he left the confines of the Red Keep, even with his Kingsguard to protect him. Nor would he allow his younger son, Viserys, to attend his brother's wedding.

When Prince Rhaegar and his new wife chose to take up residence on Dragonstone instead of the Red Keep, rumors flew thick and fast across the Seven Kingdoms. Some claimed that the crown prince was planning to depose his father and seize the Iron Throne for himself, whilst others said that King Aerys meant to disinherit Rhaegar and name Viserys heir in his place. Nor did the birth of King Aerys's first grandchild, a girl named Rhaenys, born on Dragonstone in 280 AC, do aught to reconcile father and son. When Prince Rhaegar returned to the Red Keep to present his daughter to his own mother and father, Queen Rhaella embraced the babe warmly, but King Aerys refused to touch or hold the child and complained that she "smells Dornish."

TWOIAF: Aerys II

By 280 AC, his madness having supposedly become unmistakable as a result of the pleasure he had come to take in burning traitors, murderers, and plotters, men from Dorne to the Wall had supposedly taken to calling Aerys the Mad King.

It would have been publicly known that in early 280 AC, two years before Rhaegar abducted Lyanna in 282 AC, Aerys had refrained from attending Rhaegar's wedding to Elia Martell, that Aerys had not allowed Viserys to attend, and that Rhaegar had chosen to take up residence on Dragonstone instead of the Red Keep.

If Maester Yandel can be believed, these moves on the part of Aerys and Rhaegar were the source of rumors throughout the Seven Kingdoms, way back in 280 AC, some claiming that Rhaegar was planning to depose Aerys and seize the Iron Throne, some claiming that Aerys meant to disinherit Rhaegar and name Viserys his heir.

By the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC, the nobles would have known that Aerys hadn't left the Red Keep in five years, and though not necessarily privy to his belief that Rhaegar conspired with Tywin to have him slain at Duskendale, or that the tourney was a cover for a Rhaegar plot to depose him, they would have witnessed Aerys's madness on full display.

We are told that attendees "were shocked and appalled when they saw what had become of their monarch. His long yellow fingernails, tangled beard, and ropes of unwashed, matted hair made the extent of the king's madness plain to all. Nor was his behavior that of a sane man, for Aerys could go from mirth to melancholy in the blink of an eye, and many of the accounts written of Harrenhal speak of his hysterical laughter, long silences, bouts of weeping, and sudden rages."

We are told "Above all, King Aerys II was suspicious: suspicious of his own son and heir, Prince Rhaegar; suspicious of his host, Lord Whent; suspicious of every lord and knight who had come to Harrenhal to compete...and even more suspicious of those who chose to absent themselves, the most notable of whom was his former Hand, Tywin Lannister, Lord of Casterly Rock."

Of Rhaegar's victory, we are told "The cheers of the crowd were said to be deafening, but King Aerys did not join them. Far from being proud and pleased by his heir's skill at arms, His Grace saw it as a threat. Lords Chelsted and Staunton inflamed his suspicions further, declaring that Prince Rhaegar had entered the lists to curry favor with the commons and remind the assembled lords that he was a puissant warrior, a true heir to Aegon the Conqueror."

Whether or not Aerys openly voiced his suspicions or any accusations against his son, considering his mood swings, and his negative reactions to Rhaegar's showing at the tourney, we can hardly expect the attendees to have failed to notice Aerys's demeanor towards Rhaegar. 

But aside from all that, we also know that Rhaegar defeated Brandon personally in the tilts, and we know that that meant that Brandon had to forfeit or ransom his horse and armor from Rhaegar, just as the knights whose squires had bullied Howland Reed had had to ransom their things from the Knight of the Laughing Tree on the second day.

We don't know if a ransom between Rhaegar and Brandon occurred, or if Brandon would have done the ransoming personally or sent someone, but the possibility is there, and if it happened, it would seem likely that a conversation occurred between the two men, almost certainly before Rhaegar crowned Lyanna the Queen of Love and Beauty.

Rhaegar very well could have used that as an opportunity to give Brandon insight on the deterioration of Aerys, and of their relationship, and his desire to make changes. Or not. Whatever the case, Brandon would have known what the rest of the realm known, and that is enough not to assume with no basis that Rhaegar would take Lyanna to King's Landing.

Someone merely witnessing Rhaegar and his party riding south on the Kingsroad from "within ten leagues of Harrenhal" is no basis for Brandon to assume that Rhaegar going to the Red Keep. Rhaegar's actual home of Dragonstone is accessible from all of the other Crownlands coasts and ports on the Blackwater Bay east of the Kingsroad. The certainty that Brandon has that Rhaegar is at the Red Keep makes no sense unless he is going on actual intelligence that that is where Rhaegar was heading.

[Ygrain]

On 10/31/2018 at 8:05 AM, SFDanny said:

Those "swordpoints" are pointed at someone, and I doubt it's Lyanna herself.

If she travelled officially and not Alys Karstark style, then she certainly would have been accompanied, but even so: the parallels with Ned's journey south and the complete mess it was still offers plenty of opportunity.

However: the swordpoint version comes from Dany's chapters, hence has to be taken with a grain of salt as a potential romantic embellishment. It could even be a coverup protecting Lyanna's honour in case of mutual elopement, either as a rumour or a staged abduction. I think I have brought this up before - there is such a staged abduction in G.G. Kay's A Song for Arbonne. I'm not saying GRRM must have read, or taken inspiration from this, I'm merely pointing out that such a scenario is not out of realm of possibility.

On 10/30/2018 at 7:57 PM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Maybe it doesn't have to be anything overly complicated. Maybe Brandon assumes Rhaegar went to King's Landing because it's winter in the realm.

For one, in the World Book, we are told that it's winter. 

The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs an gutters of every tower in the city.

If these are the conditions around King's Landing, then what are the conditions further north? If the Blackwater is hard frozen, then it must be about the same around Saltpans and Maidenpool which would make it more difficult for ships to get in and get out. Some ships could even be stuck in the ice. And we have no clue how long Rhaegar was hanging around the riverlands. 

It's not outside the realm of possibilities that Brandon seeing this thought that the place Rhaegar might go if he is cut off from Dragonstone is King's Landing. 

The problem is, is it still winter when Rhaegar "eventually" comes back into the Riverlands? I don't think the passage of time is indicated anywhere, and we don't know where Rhaegar had to go so urgently that he abandoned his wife and newborn Aegon. 

 

ETA: @SFDanny, why do you think Lyanna might have been in the Vale? To my best knowledge, this is indicated nowhere in the text, and the fact that Ned and Robert are still in the Vale when the summons from Aerys come, IMHO, speaks against it. If Lyanna was in the Vale, those three would have been travelling for the wedding together and Lyanna snatched from under Robert's nose would have been something worth mentioning. Had that happened, I don't see how Robert could have been convinced not to pull a Brandon or something else similarly stupid. Also, I don't see why, in the aftermath of Lyanna's abduction, both of them would travel back to the Vale - with Brandon imprisoned and Rickard having to deal with this blow, Ned would have been instrumental in coordinating House Stark's powers, and a message to Jon Arryn could have been relayed via Robert alone.

 

Also, sorry but I'm currently unable to adress all the points I'd like to, and I don't know if and when this might be possible, so I apologize for the brevity.

[Daemon The Black Dragon]

23 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

@Daemon The Black Dragon

I don't know what every noble knew about the extent of how bad the relationship between Aerys and Rhaegar was, or what anecdotes about the relationship between Aerys and Rhaegar were widely known, but I do think every noble knew that Aerys and Rhaegar had had a poor relationship for years, and that Rhaegar had lived on Dragonstone, not the Red Keep, for years.

By 280 AC, his madness having supposedly become unmistakable as a result of the pleasure he had come to take in burning traitors, murderers, and plotters, men from Dorne to the Wall had supposedly taken to calling Aerys the Mad King.

It would have been publicly known that in early 280 AC, two years before Rhaegar abducted Lyanna in 282 AC, Aerys had refrained from attending Rhaegar's wedding to Elia Martell, that Aerys had not allowed Viserys to attend, and that Rhaegar had chosen to take up residence on Dragonstone instead of the Red Keep.

If Maester Yandel can be believed, these moves on the part of Aerys and Rhaegar were the source of rumors throughout the Seven Kingdoms, way back in 280 AC, some claiming that Rhaegar was planning to depose Aerys and seize the Iron Throne, some claiming that Aerys meant to disinherit Rhaegar and name Viserys his heir.

By the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC, the nobles would have known that Aerys hadn't left the Red Keep in five years, and though not necessarily privy to his belief that Rhaegar conspired with Tywin to have him slain at Duskendale, or that the tourney was a cover for a Rhaegar plot to depose him, they would have witnessed Aerys's madness on full display.

We are told that attendees "were shocked and appalled when they saw what had become of their monarch. His long yellow fingernails, tangled beard, and ropes of unwashed, matted hair made the extent of the king's madness plain to all. Nor was his behavior that of a sane man, for Aerys could go from mirth to melancholy in the blink of an eye, and many of the accounts written of Harrenhal speak of his hysterical laughter, long silences, bouts of weeping, and sudden rages."

We are told "Above all, King Aerys II was suspicious: suspicious of his own son and heir, Prince Rhaegar; suspicious of his host, Lord Whent; suspicious of every lord and knight who had come to Harrenhal to compete...and even more suspicious of those who chose to absent themselves, the most notable of whom was his former Hand, Tywin Lannister, Lord of Casterly Rock."

Of Rhaegar's victory, we are told "The cheers of the crowd were said to be deafening, but King Aerys did not join them. Far from being proud and pleased by his heir's skill at arms, His Grace saw it as a threat. Lords Chelsted and Staunton inflamed his suspicions further, declaring that Prince Rhaegar had entered the lists to curry favor with the commons and remind the assembled lords that he was a puissant warrior, a true heir to Aegon the Conqueror."

Whether or not Aerys openly voiced his suspicions or any accusations against his son, considering his mood swings, and his negative reactions to Rhaegar's showing at the tourney, we can hardly expect the attendees to have failed to notice Aerys's demeanor towards Rhaegar. 

But aside from all that, we also know that Rhaegar defeated Brandon personally in the tilts, and we know that that meant that Brandon had to forfeit or ransom his horse and armor from Rhaegar, just as the knights whose squires had bullied Howland Reed had had to ransom their things from the Knight of the Laughing Tree on the second day.

We don't know if a ransom between Rhaegar and Brandon occurred, or if Brandon would have done the ransoming personally or sent someone, but the possibility is there, and if it happened, it would seem likely that a conversation occurred between the two men, almost certainly before Rhaegar crowned Lyanna the Queen of Love and Beauty.

Rhaegar very well could have used that as an opportunity to give Brandon insight on the deterioration of Aerys, and of their relationship, and his desire to make changes. Or not. Whatever the case, Brandon would have known what the rest of the realm known, and that is enough not to assume with no basis that Rhaegar would take Lyanna to King's Landing.

Someone merely witnessing Rhaegar and his party riding south on the Kingsroad from "within ten leagues of Harrenhal" is no basis for Brandon to assume that Rhaegar going to the Red Keep. Rhaegar's actual home of Dragonstone is accessible from all of the other Crownlands coasts and ports on the Blackwater Bay east of the Kingsroad. The certainty that Brandon has that Rhaegar is at the Red Keep makes no sense unless he is going on actual intelligence that that is where Rhaegar was heading.

Sorry for the delayed reply. Hearing rumours about Aerys madness and the Nobles at Harrenhall actually witnessing it there, is one thing. At Harrenhall Aerys never said or did anything to Rhaegar that would suggest to the Nobles there they had a bad relationship at that moment, right? I'm not suggesting Aerys and Rhaegar had a good relationship at all, but maybe everyone didn't know just how bad it was. Back to Brandon thinking Rhaegar and company were headed to KL instead of DS or somewhere. I think someone or even multiple people told Brandon that Rhaegar and company were making for KL. Maybe like you said he had actual  intel on where Rhaegar was headed. Clearly he believed Rhaegar was in KL or his first words at the Red Keep wouldn't be a challenge to Rhaegar but he'd be asking were Rhaegar was. A simple explanation for Brandon thinking this, is what I said. Someone or multiple people told Brandon this.