What led Brandon to believe Rhaegar would be at the Red Keep?

[Bael's Bastard]

On 10/27/2018 at 6:42 AM, Lady Barbrey said:

I like the comparison so maybe,  but I think Dorian Martell is also right when he says if Brandon believed Lyanna was taken near Harrenhal, he would head to KL as an obvious place on the continent to take her hostage.  I have a very different interpretation of the Crown given to Lyanna, that it was a threat aimed at Brandon and Brandon knew it as such, so nobody would have to miscommunicate a message, maliciously or accidentally.  Someone could just say to Brandon"I saw Lyanna riding with Rhaegar and a lot of his men, not ten leagues from Harrenhal in the direction of KL." How would Brandon know they were riding to Dorne instead?  Basically, I've given up thinking that one through cause it could be a non-event and there's a lot of possible reasons. But good catch on the comparison.

If Rhaegar tells witnesses that he is taking Lyanna to KL, that is where the witnesses who quickly ride off to inform the king, their lords, etc. tell them they are heading, and that gives Rhaegar time before anyone thinks to find out where he actually is going or went. That is the story that spreads before any contradictory information has a chance to unseat it.

I don't doubt that witnesses closest to the abduction would have first seen Rhaegar riding to the Kingsroad, perhaps even down it for a bit. But I think it is highly unlikely that Rhaegar traveled on land all the way to Dorne, which would have required going through some mix of the Riverlands,  Crownlands, Stormlands, possibly the Reach, and Dorne. Why risk it?

"Not ten leagues" puts him not very far from the mouth of the Trident, making an escape to sea via the Bay of Crabs much easier than traveling to Dorne through mainland Westeros. With Oswell Whent, brother of the lord of Harrenhal, and Myles Mooton, whose ancestral home was Maidenpool on the Bay of Crabs, Rhaegar would have been well equipped to make an escape from the Riverlands by sea.

I acknowledge there are other possible routes they could have taken, but this one would almost immediately take them off the mainland as everyone was trying to locate them. With Rhaegar's friend Jon Connington being lord of Griffin's Roost, which lies south of Storm's End on Shipbreaker Bay, they might have even been able to re-enter the mainland in Robert's own Stormlands, perhaps even traveling by Summerhall before making their way to the Tower of Joy.

[Bael's Bastard]

On 10/27/2018 at 3:08 PM, Megorova said:

Most likely, Lyanna was traveling with several companions - handmaids, guards, friends. So when she was kidnapped, there were witnesses left, because Rhaegar and his people didn't killed anyone. Because if they did killed someone, then by now, five books into the series, someone (character) would have already mentioned it, that during Lyanna's kidnapping this and that person was killed by Rhaegar and his people. Thus, most likely, no one was killed, and thus there were people, that saw in which direction Rhaegar went after kidnapping Lyanna - south by Kingsroad.

Maybe Rhaegar had his own personal ship, something recognizable, that people all over 7K knew about. So upon his arrival to King's Landing, Brandon saw, that Rhaegar's ship is in KL's harbour, thus Rhaegar still didn't departed to Dragonstone. Thus he assumed, that Rhaegar is in Red Keep. Though, even though the ship was at KL, it doesn't mean, that Rhaegar was also there. Though, at some point, prior Lyanna's kidnapping, Rhaegar did sailed on his ship from Dragonstone to King's Landing, and then left his ship in KL's harbour. So it was still there, when Brandon arrived to KL, looking for Lyanna.

Also we don't know which route Rhaegar took, after kidnapping Lyanna. Maybe they went via land, or maybe they sailed. The kidnapping happened near Harrenhall. The God's Eye is also near Harrenhall. So from that lake they took a boat, or Rhaegar's ship, and went south by Blackwater Rush to King's Landing, and then left the ship there, and continued going south, to Dorne, via land route. Or maybe they boarded Rhaegar's ship at God's Eye, and witnesses saw the ship sailing to King's Landing, but somewhere along the way, Rhaegar and Lyanna got off the ship, and went via land in different direction. So Brandon, following the ship, arrived to KL, but Lyanna wasn't on it. So he thought, that Rhaegar took her into Red Keep, and went there after them.

Not sure it can be ruled out, but it seems unlikely to me. Rhaegar had left Dragonstone by the first weeks of 282 AC, and Aerys and his people weren't able to locate him as late in the war as the Battle of the Bells in 283 AC. So it seems like he was trying to avoid the Targaryens as much as he was trying to avoid the other side. I don't think Brandon went to KL because Rhaegar had a recognizable boat that was spotted heading towards or in KL. If they took a ship, I think it is more likely they took the Trident through the Bay of Crabs, perhaps with a stop in Pentos or elsewhere in Essos.

I admit there are a lot of possibilities staying on Westeros, but they all seem to involve too much chance of getting caught. I could see sort of a reverse Robert's Rebellion route (from Trident to Stoney Sept, from Stoney Sept down Blackwater Rush, from Blackwater Rush to Mander, down Mander and Cockleswhent to Ashford, from Ashford to Summerhall, from Summerhall down to Tower of Joy), but that seems overly convoluted, and too susceptible to capture.

[Bael's Bastard]

On 10/27/2018 at 4:59 PM, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

It was the logical place to look. All roads lead to King's Landing . We do not know if Rhaegar  was or was not at the Red Keep . There are many tunnels under it . And we are  to take the word of Aerys who is  described as being insane .

It's not a logical place to look, as Rhaegar hadn't lived there for two years, and had a troubled relationship with Aerys. And we can be reasonably certain that Rhaegar wasn't there. He would have had no need to flee from KL, as there was no chance of Brandon and his little party, or even Rickard's elite but small group of 200 taking Rhaegar or the city. It is Jaime, not Aerys, that tells us that Brandon came to the Red Keep shouting for Rhaegar to come out and die. And he has no reason to lie about that at that point.

On 10/27/2018 at 5:49 PM, The Map Guy said:

What if Brandon use "Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna" as an excuse to bail out of his marriage to Catelyn temporarily so he and his buddies can have a bachelor party in Capital City? As any bachelor party, things get a little too wild and drunk, he bursts into City Hall and says the wrong things by threatening the Mayor's son. He and his buddies goes to jail, and daddy had to bail him out...unfortunately, we know what happens next.

A funny visual, might make for a good mummers show, but has no resemblance to the events of the story we are reading.

[SFDanny]

May I throw out another thought for this interesting discussion. Regarding Brandon’s thinking when he issued his challenge, it may well be he doesn’t really believe he will get to fight Rhaegar. He may wish that to be the case, but the past examples of such duels include champions named to fight for the royal family. Ser Duncan’s fight with the Laughing Storm is an example of this. Brandon maybe issuing a challenge that he believes will place him in combat with a member of the Kingsguard. Selmy? Ser Arthur? Or even Ser Gerold? 

In such a case, it doesn’t matter where Rhaegar is when he challenged him.

[dmfn]

17 hours ago, Silver Bullet 1985 said:

Good point.  Where is the safest place for a prince to take his prisoner?  The family's stronghold.  It is the logical place to take your prisoner.  

No.  Just no.  I don't believe this theory of yours has any merit to it.   Rhaegar's behavior at Harrenhal refutes this.  What the Targaryens did was a direct and unsubtle insult to the Starks when he gave their sister those ugly roses.  It wasn't a spontaneous act of romance.  It was calculated to send a strong cease and desist message to the Starks.  And look at where the threat took place.  The Targaryens could not have picked a more perfect venue to send a warning to Rickard Stark and his allies.  Rickard and his sons would suffer the fate of Black Harren and his sons if he continued with his mad ambition for power.  

Those "ugly roses" are repeatedly referred to as links to Winterfell, the Starks, and Lyanna herself. Most humans find roses to be beautiful flowers, and most humans are sentimental about things from their hometown. 

I would go out on a limb and say that winter roses probably don't represent spring, and this tournament was celebrating spring (albeit false). Even farther out on the same limb, I could imagine Rheagar acquiring these blue roses to send a specific message to the Starks. 

As far as the message goes, I'm liking what I'm reading here by @Bael's Bastard

The Catelyn abduction chapter shut down my conspiracy theory instantly. This is exactly what kind of evidence I would expect our author to leave us, to guide us through his thinking. 

I'm not sure about how Rickard and Brandon tie in. I'm not sure Rheagar intended to depose Aerys. There is too much at play in Harrenhall. I'd have to look at a bunch of things again. 

Very enjoyable read, but I'm not sold on it after the dealing with the KOTLT parts. No one could mistake Jaime for a 14 year girl for more than an instant, right? Jaime was a badass knight, fully grown man by that point in my mind. And I feel like if Lyanna really was the KOTLT, nobody knew (except maybe Howland), or years later Ned wouldn't be talking like Lyanna 'would have trained with a sword if she had permission' stuff.

The breaking up the marriage with Robert is maybe possible, but someone other than Rheagar would have to have been ready to take Lyanna off the market that wasn't already married. Unless of course, it was all about prophecy, and Rheagar was planning to get with Lyanna the whole time. 

I wonder how that courtship went... 

[Bael's Bastard]

@SFDanny

Just want to let you know that I'll be getting to your posts. I haven't had access to my computer over the weekend, so just making my way through these replies, and want to give your posts due consideration and response.

[Bael's Bastard]

On 10/29/2018 at 12:01 PM, dmfn said:

Those "ugly roses" are repeatedly referred to as links to Winterfell, the Starks, and Lyanna herself. Most humans find roses to be beautiful flowers, and most humans are sentimental about things from their hometown. 

I would go out on a limb and say that winter roses probably don't represent spring, and this tournament was celebrating spring (albeit false). Even farther out on the same limb, I could imagine Rheagar acquiring these blue roses to send a specific message to the Starks. 

As far as the message goes, I'm liking what I'm reading here by @Bael's Bastard

The Catelyn abduction chapter shut down my conspiracy theory instantly. This is exactly what kind of evidence I would expect our author to leave us, to guide us through his thinking. 

I'm not sure about how Rickard and Brandon tie in. I'm not sure Rheagar intended to depose Aerys. There is too much at play in Harrenhall. I'd have to look at a bunch of things again. 

Very enjoyable read, but I'm not sold on it after the dealing with the KOTLT parts. No one could mistake Jaime for a 14 year girl for more than an instant, right? Jaime was a badass knight, fully grown man by that point in my mind. And I feel like if Lyanna really was the KOTLT, nobody knew (except maybe Howland), or years later Ned wouldn't be talking like Lyanna 'would have trained with a sword if she had permission' stuff.

The breaking up the marriage with Robert is maybe possible, but someone other than Rheagar would have to have been ready to take Lyanna off the market that wasn't already married. Unless of course, it was all about prophecy, and Rheagar was planning to get with Lyanna the whole time. 

I wonder how that courtship went... 

@dmfn

I admit I don't have every angle worked out. I am working it all out as I discuss, and test things, and see how they hold up in my mind to criticisms against them. So things might change, but this is where I am at as of now.

Regarding the KOTLT:

the mystery knight was short of stature, and clad in ill-fitting armor made up of bits and pieces

- ASOS: Bran II

So there is nothing about the the size of the KOTLT that rules out a 14-15 year old Lyanna, and the description of the KOTLT actually makes it likely that it was a relatively small person in the armor.

Regarding Jaime:

At fifteen, I rode with Ser Arthur Dayne against the Kingswood Brotherhood, and he knighted me on the battlefield.

- ASOS: Jaime II

"Harrenhal was where they gave me the white cloak," he whispered back. "Whent's great tourney. He wanted to show us all his big castle and his fine sons. I wanted to show them too. I was only fifteen, but no one could have beaten me that day. Aerys never let me joust." He laughed again. "He sent me away. But now I'm coming back."

- ASOS: Jaime IV

So Jaime was only 15 when he became a knight, and was still only 15 when he became a KG at the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC.

Whether Lyanna and Jaime were anywhere close in size is unknown. At 15, Jaime could have still had a lot of his growth in height and weight ahead of him, or he could have already done most of his growing in height and/or weight.

Aerys could have been disregarding the small size of the KOTLT when he assumed it was Jaime, basing it solely on his paranoia about Jaime. Or Aerys could have been taking into account a negligible difference in size between the KOTLT and Jaime.

Whatever the case, whether Jaime was small enough to have been the KOTLT, the description of the small size of the KOTLT makes it all the more likely that it could have been a 14-15 year old girl like Lyanna.

[Megorova]

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I admit there are a lot of possibilities staying on Westeros, but they all seem to involve too much chance of getting caught.

All they needed to do to hide, is for Lyanna to wear men's clothes, and to cut her hair, or to hide it under a hat or a cape, and Rhaegar could have dyed his hair in darker color. People were looking for a girl and a blond-haired guy, not for two dark-haired guys. Also, if they were mostly traveling at night, or during daylight, but were staying off main roads, took with them a tent, and were camping, and bying food at farmers' markets, instead of spending nights in various inns, and eating in taverns, then no one paid them any atention, no one suspected who they really were.

Good examples of incognito traveling is Arya/Arry, Sansa/Alayne, Barristan/Arstan, Tyrion/Yollo-Hugor Hill.

Maybe Rhaegar and Lyanna, on their way to Dorne, joined troupe of traveling mummers, and were staying unseen, even though they were in plain sight, performing on stage. Rhaegar was singer or musician, and Lyanna also took on some role, or was acting merely as his assistant. They could have knew those mummers, since a year ago, could have met them during Tournament at Harrenhal. Maybe, it was the same Dornish troupe, to which years ago belonged Tanselle the Tall. Or just some random troupe of mummers.

[Dorian Martell's son]

2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I disagree. Rhaegar hasn't lived in King's Landing for two years, and has a troubled relationship with his father King Aerys. There is nothing basic or logical about Brandon assuming that Rhaegar is in King's Landing unless he received some sort of intelligence that that was where Rhaegar was going. If Brandon had rode into the Red Keep to meet with Aerys, that would be a perfectly acceptable explanation. But our lone source claims Brandon rode into the Red Keep shouting for Rhaegar to come out and die, and we have no reason to believe Brandon would have assumed Rhaegar would be or was present there without cause.

So what if he hasn't lived there in a while? The red keep would be where the royals would be. There is no need for "intelligence" on the subject.  

[Lady Barbrey]

3 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

If Rhaegar tells witnesses that he is taking Lyanna to KL, that is where the witnesses who quickly ride off to inform the king, their lords, etc. tell them they are heading, and that gives Rhaegar time before anyone thinks to find out where he actually is going or went. That is the story that spreads before any contradictory information has a chance to unseat it.

I don't doubt that witnesses closest to the abduction would have first seen Rhaegar riding to the Kingsroad, perhaps even down it for a bit. But I think it is highly unlikely that Rhaegar traveled on land all the way to Dorne, which would have required going through some mix of the Riverlands,  Crownlands, Stormlands, possibly the Reach, and Dorne. Why risk it?

"Not ten leagues" puts him not very far from the mouth of the Trident, making an escape to sea via the Bay of Crabs much easier than traveling to Dorne through mainland Westeros. With Oswell Whent, brother of the lord of Harrenhal, and Myles Mooton, whose ancestral home was Maidenpool on the Bay of Crabs, Rhaegar would have been well equipped to make an escape from the Riverlands by sea.

I acknowledge there are other possible routes they could have taken, but this one would almost immediately take them off the mainland as everyone was trying to locate them. With Rhaegar's friend Jon Connington being lord of Griffin's Roost, which lies south of Storm's End on Shipbreaker Bay, they might have even been able to re-enter the mainland in Robert's own Stormlands, perhaps even traveling by Summerhall before making their way to the Tower of Joy.

Does it matter what route they took?  They end up in Dorne.  Unless this is a plot point for your theory, why do we care about this?

[Bael's Bastard]

@SFDanny

On 10/27/2018 at 6:24 PM, SFDanny said:

I think your theory up to this point is entirely plausible. I don't think it is necessary, but it is plausible. Dragonstone is a lot farther away from the area where the "kidnapping" is said to have taken place than King's Landing. As such, just from a logistical motive it would make sense for Rhaegar to make for King's Landing even if he intended to head ultimately for Dragonstone. But I like the idea he laid a false trail much as Catelyn did so many years later. A sort of echo of the past appearing in the current story. Very much in Martin's style.

If Rhaegar's intention was to go to Dragonstone, or anywhere else by sea, there were a number of places much closer than KL to leave from, such as Saltpans, Maidenpool, and even Duskendale.

On 10/27/2018 at 6:24 PM, SFDanny said:

Here is where I think you go wrong. First, let me say this theory is the same as the one currently posed by @yolkboy and @Lady Gwynhyfvar over at Radio Westeros in their current episode 41 called "At the Crossroads." Others have also raised this idea before. My reasons for disagreement is that I think it misses some important clues, some of which I think I've raised with you before. If I'm duplicating any past discussions, then please forgive me, but I'll just add them here for the general discussion you've started.

First, and most importantly, I think it overlooks the reason for Rhaegar's action as told to us by Dany.

I'm not familiar with their theories, but I am certain that I am not suggesting anything that has never been proposed. I am not sure if the "not ten leagues" thing makes it possible for the abduction to have occurred at the exact same spot as Catelyn's abduction of Tyrion, but otherwise, I think the one Riverlands abduction might give us at least a hint or two about the other.

On 10/27/2018 at 6:24 PM, SFDanny said:

First, and most importantly, I think it overlooks the reason for Rhaegar's action as told to us by Dany.

Here Dany is clearly thinking of the need to be rescued from an unwanted wedding and thinks of Rhaegar's action of so long ago in this context. It is a very strong hint that the Targaryen view of the "kidnapping" of Lyanna was done in the context of another unwanted wedding - this one the wedding of Lyanna to Robert. Nothing about disobeying an order from Aerys.

Dany doesn't actually know the reasons for Rhaegar's actions, and her beliefs about the reasons for Rhaegar's actions are not necessarily accurate. Furthermore, her statement doesn't necessarily tell us that she believes Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna to prevent Robert wedding her, though we know that was ultimately one of the consequences of the abduction.

I acknowledge that I am speculating with this theory, and I certainly don't expect anyone to believe it just because I am stating it. Where I believe there is proof or evidence, I provide it, and where there isn't, I can't do more than attempt to fill in blanks with speculation of possibilities.

But the fact is, GRRM hasn't revealed who the KOTLT was, or whether or how Rhaegar found out/knew, or why Rhaegar crowned Lyanna the QOLAB, or why Rhaegar abducted Lyanna, so a lack of explicit statement that Aerys had ordered Lyanna's arrest doesn't bother me personally, as such a revelation would lack explanation without revelation of those other things.

On 10/27/2018 at 6:24 PM, SFDanny said:

Secondly, we have the recounting of the events of the Harrenhal tourney from both Meera Reed' tale and from Maester Yandel that point in another direction. According to Yandel's account Aerys clearly thought the Knight of the Laughing Tree was Jaime who had snuck back to the tourney in direct opposition to the king's order. What then changed Aerys's mind to decide a fourteen to fifteen year old girl was really the mystery knight? We have nothing that so much as hints that Rhaegar or anyone else told him it was Lyanna. Nor a hint why Aerys would consider her and enemy for doing so.

 We do have Aerys's action of destroying the marriage pact between Jaime and Lysa that was in progress, and we do have his enmity towards the mystery knight. Both could be just his hatred of Tywin and his mistrust of Jaime, but there also seems to be an added distrust of the northern ties to this action as exhibited by the armor "Jaime" wore. Certainly, the "lickspittle" lords of the small council don't hesitate to point out the northern participation in Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna as part of a plot aimed at Aerys.

What seems clear to me is that Aerys understood Rhaegar's action of crowning Lyanna. He should because it emulates his own "honoring" of Jaime at the start of the tourney. It honors Lyanna, but does so in a way that states the Crown Prince's interest in stopping the marriage between Robert and Lyanna. It states Rhaegar's support for the continuation of Targaryen rule in opposition to Lord Rickard's "southron ambitions."

I am not suggesting that Rhaegar told Aerys. In truth, we have no idea who all was at the Harrenhal Tourney, let alone who all witnessed the scene of 14-15 year old Lyanna yelling as she beat up the 15 years old or younger squires, or who witnessed the KOTLT joust, or who witnessed the scene of the KOTLT's negotiations with the knights about their squires, or whether anyone witnessed Lyanna riding a horse at some point to, during, or from the tourney, or whether anyone witnessed any possible similarity between Lyanna and the KOTLT. We literally have two accounts of the KOTLT, one relaying a version of Howland Reed's eyewitness account, and who knows what Yandel's is based on.

I cannot say for certain who would have known, or suspected, or conveyed their knowledge or speculation to Aerys, or what would have made him believe it. It is just a speculative suggestion. But IF Aerys were to have found out after the Harrenhal Tourney, or it would have been suggested to him, after Rhaegar's showing at the tourney, it would have connected the actors in both scenes that infuriated him: the KOTLT and the QOLAB, and lent credence to the idea that they were all part of the same plot involving Rhaegar.

I disagree with your last paragraph. From the accounts we have, including one of his KG, Aerys believed Rhaegar was plotting against him, and according to Yandel, he viewed Rhaegar's success at the tourney as a threat against him, his suspicions being further inflamed by Chelsted and Staunton. We are not told how Aerys interpreted Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna, only what Chelsted and Staunton suggested, but it seems highly unlikely to me that Aerys suddenly viewed that as a supportive move for him or against the Starks by Rhaegar, rather than a move against him. Even without Yandel's claims, Selmy's would be enough to speculate that Aerys would have taken Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna ill.

On 10/27/2018 at 6:24 PM, SFDanny said:

Too simple. Yes, I agree this is part of the reason, but not the whole of it. Rhaegar is a skilled player of the game of thrones and he knows how his crowning of Lyanna will be seen. I think politically he is sending a message to the Starks, and Brandon in particular, that the rejection of his offer of a council and his dishonoring of Ashara shows he knows the "ambitions" Lord Rickard has does not include Rhaegar on the Iron Throne continuing a Targaryen dynasty without his father's madness.

Rhaegar quite likely is also attracted to Lyanna and her bravery, not only as the Knight of the Laughing Tree but in her scattering of the pages beating on Howland. This is a different type of young woman than Rhaegar is used to, so the message may well have been more than one thing.

I disagree with your first paragraph, but we have gone over all that "ambitions" stuff elsewhere.

I don't mean to suggest that the KOTLT thing alone earned Rhaegar's respect, admiration, or whatever. I am sure the squire thing contributed if he witnessed it, and there was a whole tourney worth of days for him to have observed her at different times.

On 10/27/2018 at 6:24 PM, SFDanny said:

Very important, because it shows not only a understanding on the small council's part of Rhaegar's plans, but also that Lord Rickard and his allies are not to be trusted in their own plots.

That doesn't make sense. Aerys and his small council clearly don't trust Rhaegar, hence why Aerys attended in the first place, and their belief that he was trying to win support against Aerys, and trying to enlist the Starks to his cause against Aerys, while you claim that the Starks and other great lords were plotting against the Targaryens and their Iron Throne, and Rhaegar was plotting to prevent an unattested Starks and great lords plot against the Targaryens and their Iron Throne. In the book version, there is a supposedly a Rhaegar plot against Aerys in which he is being accused of trying to bring in the Starks (with no hint that there have their own plots), while in your version there is a Stark (and others) plot against the Targaryens, and a Rhaegar plot to thwart the plot of the Starks and other great houses.

On 10/27/2018 at 6:24 PM, SFDanny said:

How? Why would Rhaegar tell him? He obviously didn't tell his father during the time at the tourney or, if your claim was true, Lyanna would have been taken then. Rhaegar leaves for Dragonstone shortly thereafter and then onto the Riverlands in the quest for something we don't know of yet. I think it is to find Jenny's wood's witch/the ghost of high heart and to hear her understanding of the the prophecy now that he knows he cannot have another child with Elia.

If not Rhaegar, then who tells Aerys and the small council? Not her brothers. Nor Robert, though I doubt he knew. My guess this secret is kept between Lyanna, Howland, Benjen (aka the procurer of the armor), and if Rhaegar finds her out, then Rhaegar as well. None of them would tell anyone this secret, least of all Aerys.

Not sure. I am not suggesting that Rhaegar told his father, but if Rhaegar found out or deduced it, someone else might have as well. As of now, we don't actually know how Rhaegar found out, or deduced it, if he did, which I believe he did.

On 10/27/2018 at 6:24 PM, SFDanny said:

Absolutely no evidence for this. I agree with others that the swordpoints that are involved in the rescue are those of Rhaegar, Ser Arthur, Ser Oswell versus the escorting Stark guards (I want to know where Martyn Cassell was at the time?)

See previous responses to statements about evidence.

Yes, I think Dany is speaking of Rhaegar's swordpoint too. Not sure what this is in response to?

On 10/27/2018 at 6:24 PM, SFDanny said:

It is all possible, in an area with little to guide us, but I think, for the reasons I've stated this is probably the wrong track. We do need more details.

As always a interesting read, even if I disagree.

Even before the World Book, I saw Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna as unintentionally associating Lyanna and the Starks with his own plots in the mind of his father, and putting her in danger as someone who could be used to threaten both him and the Starks. Where, IMO, he intended to honor her for demonstrating that she had the heart of a "true knight," giving her due in a way that only she and a select few others would ever understand, he only made her and the Starks guilty by association in the eyes of Aerys, his men, and perhaps even others. And if/when Aerys then decided to use her against Rhaegar and/or the Starks, Rhaegar felt obligated to act.

That's my opinion as it stands today based on the information we have. And while you claim there is no evidence for that, I say there is no evidence for your theories about Stark plots and Rhaegar's actions.

Yes, I always appreciate your responses, and causing me to consider my thinking on a matter, and to examine what I think and why I think it. I have always acknowledged gaps of knowledge on this matter, and that I am speculating on certain aspects of these theories. For me, and I can only speak for myself, this is the most plausible thing I can currently come up with for why Rhaegar did what he did. I can't buy that his decision to go out and do this was strictly for prophecy, or strictly for love, or to thwart some otherwise unattested Stark or other great house plot.

[Bael's Bastard]

1 hour ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

So what if he hasn't lived there in a while? The red keep would be where the royals would be. There is no need for "intelligence" on the subject.  

No, the Red Keep would be where Aerys would be, not where Rhaegar would be, and Brandon would be well aware of that. Brandon would have no reason to think Rhaegar was there, unless he was going off information that said that was where Rhaegar was going/had gone. That he rode to the Red Keep to find Rhaegar, and called for him to come out as if he was there indicate that he was going off information that that was where Rhaegar had gone. I am just suggesting a possibility for where that information originated and spread from.

[Bael's Bastard]

16 minutes ago, Lady Barbrey said:

Does it matter what route they took?  They end up in Dorne.  Unless this is a plot point for your theory, why do we care about this?

Only you can answer those questions for yourself. I am not interesting in telling other people what parts of the story they should care about.

[Dorian Martell's son]

6 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

No, the Red Keep would be where Aerys would be, not where Rhaegar would be, and Brandon would be well aware of that. Brandon would have no reason to think Rhaegar was there, unless he was going off information that said that was where Rhaegar was going/had gone. That he rode to the Red Keep to find Rhaegar, and called for him to come out as if he was there indicate that he was going off information that that was where Rhaegar had gone. I am just suggesting a possibility for where that information originated and spread from.

Or, he had no Idea where the prince was, so he went to the place where the rest of the royal family lived. No tinfoil needed.

[Lady Barbrey]

32 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Only you can answer those questions for yourself. I am not interesting in telling other people what parts of the story they should care about.

I did not mean to sound a abrupt, I was genuinely curious if another theory or part of your own rested on this speculative route.

[Bael's Bastard]

12 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Or, he had no Idea where the prince was, so he went to the place where the rest of the royal family lived. 

He thought he knew where the prince was, and there must be an explanation for why he thought the prince was there. "His parents live there" doesn't cut it as a possible explanation when everybody in Westeros knows he doesn't live there. But if that and calling my suggestion tinfoil is the best you have to offer on the discussion, noted, and thanks for your input.

[Bael's Bastard]

On 10/29/2018 at 4:00 PM, Lady Barbrey said:

I did not mean to sound a abrupt, I was genuinely curious if another theory or part of your own rested on this speculative route.

We know the abduction occurred in the Riverlands not ten leagues from Harrenhal, and we know that Lyanna and the three KG ended up at the Tower of Joy around the borders of Dorne, the Stormlands, and the Reach. So what would have been the best way for them to get from point A to point B without getting caught?

We know that Rhaegar's small group of close friends and confidants included a Whent of Harrenhal, a Mooton of Maidenpool, Lord Connington of Griffin's Roost, and a Dayne of Starfall

• Harrenhal was close to the spot of abduction, and is not far from where the Trident meets the Bay of Crabs
   
• Maidenpool is on the Bay of Crabs beyond the mouth of the Trident
   
• Griffin's Roost is on Shipbreak Bay south of Storm's End
   
• Starfall is on the Torrentine River

I think Rhaegar and his party would have wanted to leave the mainland via sea as quickly as possible, which could have been done from Saltpans or Maidenpool, and I think Griffin's Roost and Starfall are two places they could have possibly chosen from to re-enter to reach their destination.

But it is just a suggestion, and I acknowledge that GRRM could choose to have them go by land, or any number of routes. I don't think one way or another is essential, and I think whatever way GRRM chooses will have its own significance, and possible callbacks to other peoples' travels to/through those same locations.

[Dorian Martell's son]

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

He thought he knew where the prince was, and there must be an explanation for why he thought the prince was there. "His parents live there" doesn't cut it as a possible explanation when everybody in Westeros knows he doesn't live there. But if that and calling my suggestion tinfoil is the best you have to offer on the discussion, noted, and thanks for your input.

The prince may not live there officially, but as a royal, he would be there from time to time, but common sense aside, if rhaegar gave false "intelligence" to throw folks off his trail, why would it be his dad's house? why not home? or volantis? why not the arbor? Or Summerhall? 
If all you have to back it up is "everyone knows he doesn't live there,"  well, noted, and that is why it's tinfoil. But hey, if GRRM ever publishes another book, you may be proven right and you can come back here and gloat. 

[Bael's Bastard]

On 10/28/2018 at 3:35 AM, Ygrain said:

A very plausible explanation, OP. Doesn't explain, though, why Brandon thought that Rhaegar was still in KL with his father who he didn't get on with, when all he had to do was take a ship to DS. Would it really be so difficult to check if the Crown Prince was in KL, and why wouldn't Brandon believe when told that Rhaegar wasn't there?

@Ygrain

I am not sure I understand. I am suggesting that Brandon thought Rhaegar was in KL because Rhaegar led witnesses to his abduction of Lyanna to believe that he was taking her to King's Landing.

I don't think Brandon would have independently assumed that Rhaegar was going to KL, because he would have known that Rhaegar lived on Dragonstone, and that he didn't get on with his father.

But if witnesses in the Riverlands confirmed Rhaegar's stated intention to bring Lyanna to KL, I think Brandon would have taken that seriously, and pursued him there.

Did Brandon investigate around KL before going to the Red Keep, or did he go straight to the Red Keep? Did he investigate at the Red Keep, or did he launch right into shouting for Rhaegar to come out and die?

I think the idea that Rhaegar spread the disinformation that he was bringing Lyanna to KL could also help explain Brandon's urgency and demeanor.

In the scenario I am proposing:

• Aerys had taken to burning traitors, murderers, and plotters by 280 AC
   
• Aerys was infuriated by the KOTLT and believed him to be a "traitor who will not show his face" at Harrenhal in late 281 AC
   
• Rhaegar discovered that Lyanna was the KOTLT at Harrenhal in late 281 AC
   
• Rhaegar told Brandon that he knows Lyanna was the KOTLT at the ransoming at Harrenhal in late 281 AC
   
• Rhaegar crowned Lyanna the QOLAB, infuriating Brandon, and displeasing Ned at Harrenhal in later 281 AC
   
• Rhaegar abducted Lyanna not ten leagues from Harrenhal in early 282 AC
   
• Rhaegar informed witnesses to the abduction that he was bringing Lyanna to King's Landing in early 282 AC

As such, Brandon would have been operating under the assumption that Rhaegar was bringing Lyanna to Aerys, knowing that Rhaegar knew that Lyanna was the KOTLT that had so infuriated Aerys.

But let me make clear that I think that, if Rhaegar did indeed state in front of witnesses that he was bringing Lyanna to KL, I think that was more intended to throw Aerys off his trail, than to lead Brandon or the Starks on a hunt.

I am not sure what Rhaegar's original plan would have been. Perhaps he intended to bring her to Riverrun or to wherever Rickard was, but Brandon arrived at the Red Keep first and plans changed. Perhaps he intended to hold on to Lyanna until he could force a Great Council and address everyone and everything. I don't know. But I suspect news of Brandon's arrest changed the original plan pretty quickly.

[Clegane'sPup]

Problem is with the limited amount of information in the actual ASOIAF five books --- WOIAF was released and the below information was thrown into the mix.

The World of Ice and Fire - The Fall of the Dragons: The Year of the False Spring    The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in the city.       As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon's turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however.      Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.          But that tale is too well-known to warrant repeating here./

Well, the tale ain't to well known in the five ASOIAF books.

In the ASOIAF (five published books) Cat says:     A Game of Thrones - Catelyn X    Brandon Stark had bid her wait as well. "I shall not be long, my lady," he had vowed. "We will be wed on my return." Yet when the day came at last, it was his brother Eddard who stood beside her in the sept./

When did the part that Lord Rickard was riding from WF to RL for Brandon & Cat's wedding and that Brandon was riding to meet his father when Brandon received word about his sister's dilemma enter into the story ----- was that information from the app? Because in the below quote all it says is Brandon heard about Lyanna and Brandon rode to KL.

A Clash of Kings - Catelyn VII    "He was on his way to Riverrun when . . ." Strange, how telling it still made her throat grow tight, after all these years. ". . . when he heard about Lyanna, and went to King's Landing instead.

I accept Eddard's bastard is the child of Lyanna and that the probable momma baby daddy is Rhaegar.

BUT Rhaegar's tower of joy in located in Dorne. Rhaegar's wife is/was Dornish. I'm asking, the Dornish were okay with Rhaegar planting his mistress/wife/abductee at Rhaeger's tower of joy?

Not only do I not know how Brandon heard of his sisters plight, I do not know how Eddard knew where to find his sister.

Then out of the blue a Dornish kid (Lord) squiring for a knight and who may or not be the next welder of Dawn tells Arya a story that Wylla is Eddard's bastard momma --- a name Eddard used while talking with King Bob.