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U.S. Politics: One Wave, Two Waves, Red Waves, Blue Waves

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2 hours ago, Toth said:

Just how exactly is "Hitler being swept up by his times" a neo-nazi narrative? Sorry for my confusion here, but as someone who studied the time extensively as part of his job, I always take it for granted that there are a lot of factors that enabled the nazis in taking over the government and do as they did. I'm talking about the widespread anger about the treaty of Versailles, the economic after-effects of the great recession, the general distrust in democracy, fearmongering against the left, lack of compromise between centrists and leftists, constant politically motivated violence including assassinations, streetfighting and intimidation tactics at the polls etc. etc. All those things that made people vote for a fascist strongman or not vote at all.

Perhaps I worded that poorly. Of course Hitler, like most of the Nazi high command, was more the creation of historical forces than the architect. But, in the same way that Republicans went from "there's no collusion" to "is collusion really that bad?", I don't want to see a shift from "Trump is not Hitler" to "Would it really be so bad if he were?"

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Admittedly, I'm also in the "Trump is too stupid to be Hitler" group, but he DOES love to portray himself as a fascist strongman and surrounds himself with people who clearly have nazi sympathies.

This, I actually disagree with. I think what most people take for stupidity with Trump is actually a combination of callousness, bigotry, a lifelong reliance on his own privilege, and utter incompetence/lack of understanding regarding his current position. But he is also brilliant at manipulating the media, which makes him most effective on the campaign trail.

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5 hours ago, Zorral said:

I'm so sorry.  I didn't get that it was sarcasm.  I didn't catch signals for that.

Maybe my nerves are too raw?

 

It is not necessarily because your "nerves are too raw."

There is research showing that human beings are dismal at detecting sarcasm in emails or internet posts even when they do know the poster personally. This is a general human characteristic, not a sign that of any intellectual or emotional disability or even of having a "bad day."  And this works in both ways -- people are as likely to think a post that was meant to be serious is sarcastic as vice versa.

Really what we should be teaching people is to NEVER post anything in an email or on a discussion board that they mean to be sarcastic unless they explicitly point out that it is sarcastic through a written statement or at least an emoticon. "Signals" don't work unless they are that explicit.

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Yeah, attack the victims, you piece of shit. You wanted them all dead, right?

Trump Attacks Tom Steyer Days After Billionaire Democrat Received Mail Bomb

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-attacks-tom-steyer-days-after-billionaire-democrat-received-mail-bomb?ref=home

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Days after Tom Steyer was targeted with a mail bomb by a far-right Trump supporter, the president on Sunday attacked the billionaire Democratic donor, who appeared on CNN’s State of the Union earlier Sunday. “Just watched Wacky Tom Steyer, who I have not seen in action before, be interviewed by @jaketapper,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “He comes off as a crazed & stumbling lunatic who should be running out of money pretty soo

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Ormond said:

snip

Unless one is not concerned about being misunderstood about a minority of readers.  The vast majority of regulars who saw that post from JA knew it was 100% sarcasm.  And that was not just from the text alone and post history but even supported by very recent posts which also represent a "signal" of sorts.

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7 hours ago, Zorral said:

I'm so sorry.  I didn't get that it was sarcasm.  I didn't catch signals for that.

Maybe my nerves are too raw?

Immediately upon the news breaking of both the bomber and the shooter I have seen this stuff everywhere, not intended in the least as sarcasm.  These people posting, twitting, etc. this stuff really believe their own insanity.

No worries, I think the fault is mine. Doesn’t seem to matter how often these misunderstandings happen, I never learn how poorly sarcasm plays online.

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19 hours ago, James Arryn said:

If you’re talking about my post, I was 100% satirizing prior Trump supporters arguments that mutual lack of evidence makes for mutual probability, and in the meanwhile no one should ever assume that looking, walking, quacking and snowflaking like a duck doesn’t make it a duck, because if might be a false fowl op.

Sorry if it freaked you out, I thought it was so obviously sarcastic I didn’t need to clarify, but I suppose that assumed you’d remember my usual tendencies, which is I guess a bit arrogant.

edit: mudguard, DR, Mormont, thanks for having my back guys (not sarcastic.) I guess it’s a pretty sad commentary on where we are that my post could have been actually considered serious, but I should have known better.

The sad thing is, 2 years ago there would have been no danger of anyone taking that post seriously. Now, the amount of crazy going around, it can be hard to tell if someone is seriously proposing a crackpot theory or doing it in jest.

It's difficult to be a joke these days.

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17 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The sad thing is, 2 years ago there would have been no danger of anyone taking that post seriously. Now, the amount of crazy going around, it can be hard to tell if someone is seriously proposing a crackpot theory or doing it in jest.

It's difficult to be a joke these days.

Yeah, totally, that was my first reaction when I saw zorral’s post; can’t count the number of times I’ve erred the other way last couple years, reading things I assumed had to be satirizing bigotry or w/e only to find out they were sincere.

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14 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Yeah, totally, that was my first reaction when I saw zorral’s post; can’t count the number of times I’ve erred the other way last couple years, reading things I assumed had to be satirizing bigotry or w/e only to find out they were sincere.

It's not just this either. It's really difficult to tell the difference between flat earth trolls and true believers. But either way, the youtube videos are entertaining to watch. Albeit a guilty pleasure, since it's another sign of the looming intellectual apocalypse, which should be just making me sad. Maybe it's an hysterical reaction to laugh and be entertained by these symptoms of intellectual cancer.

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I just read Ralston's early voting blog and feel better about Nevada now ... the Democrats are building a solid firewall there in early voting, but its still a bit too early to say if it's enough. Not sure about the Governor race, but I presume it will be similar to the Senate one (I cant see it splitting, in other words, if Rosen wins then Sisolak is likely winning too)

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1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Maybe it's an hysterical reaction to laugh and be entertained by these symptoms of intellectual cancer.

I have this reaction a lot. I went through a solid 6-12month period of making cuck jokes because I couldn't deal with the fact that people were using it sincerely as an insult despite it saying more about them than the person they were attempting to insult.

I'm really quite terrified about the upcoming midterms. If the GOP win we'll continue on the current path solidifying the fascist awakening and entrenching discrimination against minorities, violence against asylum seekers/immigrants and more. If the Dems win we get to find out just how the far right are going to react when democracy tries to reassert itself which has the more scary worst case scenario in the short term.

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16 minutes ago, karaddin said:

I'm really quite terrified about the upcoming midterms. If the GOP win we'll continue on the current path solidifying the fascist awakening and entrenching discrimination against minorities, violence against asylum seekers/immigrants and more. If the Dems win we get to find out just how the far right are going to react when democracy tries to reassert itself which has the more scary worst case scenario in the short term.

This is something that's been on my mind a lot lately.  I'd gotten into a mindset of "if Dems take back at least one chamber of Congress we're off the ledge for a tad bit..." but can't rule out the possibility that this even accelerates the short term tensions, and who knows that that would result in. 

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14 minutes ago, karaddin said:

I'm really quite terrified about the upcoming midterms. If the GOP win we'll continue on the current path solidifying the fascist awakening and entrenching discrimination against minorities, violence against asylum seekers/immigrants and more. If the Dems win we get to find out just how the far right are going to react when democracy tries to reassert itself which has the more scary worst case scenario in the short term.

My brother is also really worried about the midterms. He’s worried the Dems will ‘blow it’ some how, a worry a number of people on this board have as well, I think. I certainly have trepidations too, but am slightly more positive.

It’s hard to be right next door and watch the house fire that everyone seems to be ignoring.

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House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy from California is receiving renewed attention for a tweet that claimed three billionaire Democratic donors of Jewish descent were trying to “buy” elections. The tweet specifically mentioned George Soros, Michael Bloomberg, and Tom Steyer. “We cannot allow Soros, Steyer, and Bloomberg to BUY this election! Get out and vote Republican November 6th. #MAGA,” McCarthy wrote in the tweet that was posted Tuesday and deleted a day later. McCarthy posted the tweet a day after authorities found what appeared to be a pipe bomb sent to Soros.

House Majority Leader Deletes Tweet Saying Soros, Bloomberg, Steyer Are Trying to “Buy” Elections

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/10/house-majority-leader-deletes-tweet-saying-soros-bloomberg-steyer-are-trying-to-buy-elections.html

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3 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

My brother is also really worried about the midterms. He’s worried the Dems will ‘blow it’ some how, a worry a number of people on this board have as well, I think. I certainly have trepidations too, but am slightly more positive.

It’s hard to be right next door and watch the house fire that everyone seems to be ignoring.

I'm past the point of worrying about the Dems "blowing it" in terms of their performance. My question marks on that front are whether the elections are free and fair, and there are a lot of reasons to think they won't be. See the Texas voting machines changing the senate vote when you select straight ticket party vote. There is also the possibility (as mentioned before) of foreign operatives doing blatant but immaterial (ie they don't actually change the outcome) hacks in favour of the Dems to cause further destabilisation when they are found out. That's all the justification that would be needed for a big chunk of the GOP base, they're already voicing their support for Trump suspending elections to ensure Dems don't get back into power.

Edited by karaddin
typo

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4 minutes ago, karaddin said:

I'm past the point of worrying about the Dems "blowing it" in terms of their performance. My question marks on that front are whether the elections are free and fair, and there are a lot of reasons to think they won't be. See the Texas voting machines changing the senate vote when you select straight ticket party vote. There is also the possibility (as mentioned before) of foreign operatives doing blatant but immaterial (ie they don't actually change the outcome) hacks in favour of the Dems to cause further destabilisation when they are found out. That's all the justification that would be needed for a big chunk of the GOP base, they're already voicing their support for Trump suspending elections to ensure Dems don't get back into power.

Yes, these are things that weigh on my mind, but he’s much more rudimentary than I am.

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I mean, the Dems blowing it isn't an unfair concern - I don't think they're doing a great job of giving people something to vote for (rather than voting against the GOP), but for most people that aren't part of the GOP base voting against them is enough that if the election is free and fair the Dems are going to win it. I'd really like to see bridges being built between the centre and the left of the party along with a better POTUS contender stepping forward for everyone to collapse behind but that doesn't seem to be happening.

I'll again reiterate that I just don't see Kamala Harris being able to do this, her performance in the Kavanagh hearing was good but her track record as a DA and AG really don't help with bringing in segments of the left. I'm not sure there is a better option among the current contenders though. I think Warren would be a mistake as well. And now I'm back to talking about 2020 like I think the election will actually matter when I don't even believe it, but grasping at straws is a thing.

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48 minutes ago, karaddin said:

If the Dems win we get to find out just how the far right are going to react when democracy tries to reassert itself which has the more scary worst case scenario in the short term.

I think you're being pessimistic. The right and the left are allowed some latitude in how they behave, but the uneventful transition of power (i.e. without violence and without legal persecution of the losing side) is one of the defining features of the American system and anyone who tries to mess with that will get stomped. The media (including even right-oriented outlets such as Breitbart) have been pretty clear that the polling strongly favors Democrat control of at least the House so it won't come as a surprise to the vast majority on the right. They care about winning, or course, but not enough to do anything other than waiting for 2020 so there will be no serious global disturbances.

That said, one of the unfortunate aspects of extremely polarized political environments is that unstable individuals are sometimes driven to actions which nobody wants them to take (least of all their own side) which lead to, at best, farce and, at worst, tragedy. We've already seen this and it's not likely to stop anytime soon.

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(This is at Altherion not you Morpheus, you've replied while I was typing)

You have been gaslighting everyone with even a shred of concern every step of the way on this road while you pretend you aren't a supporter of what is going on, but instead just a rational observer of events. Forgive me if I don't take your assurances of a peaceful transition of power as worth a damn.

In case you missed it you had 3 separate acts of right wing terrorism in the last few days alone and Brazil just elected the grandson of a WW2 German Nazi openly promising a "cleansing of Brazil like never before", I'm not worried the violence will start with the US election - it's already underway. I'm worried it's going to escalate.

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