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Bronn Stone

NFL 2018 IV: A Hue, A Cry and now Goodbye

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56 minutes ago, Rhom said:

But then we got to talking teams with speed and weather.  The Rams and Saints are both in good position at home with warm weather/dome.  The Chiefs ironically though are built to win in good weather... but home field for them means bad weather.  Might they be better off on the road somewhere if it meant playing inside or somewhere warm?

The AFC teams they need to worry about are New England, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Houston and San Diego.  Playing in KC will be both warmer and easier than playing in New England or Pittsburgh.  Of the other three, I guess it might help a little?  Although stylistically I'm not sure how well suited any of those teams are to playing in the cold either.  Tennessee maybe, although I think that team is the weakest of the five, and might not make the playoffs at all. 

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But where in the AFC would that be? Your other two likely championship locations are Foxborough and Pittsburgh. Although Houston could sneak through, I don’t see it happening.

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So in the pick em with my friends, we need to take one upset every week.  I'm split between Browns over Cincy or Lions over Bears.  Both picks seem possible, but not particularly likely.  Cincy is playing really poorly, but they are at home and AJ Green might be back.  Plus the Browns won last week and two in a row is asking a lot for that team.  On the other hand, the Lions are at home, on a short week playing a Bears that just had an emotional win less than 4 days ago (SNF game to Thursday @noon.  Plus apparently Trubisky is limited in practice.  That's rough.  However, the Bears (particularly the Bears D) are quite a bit better than the Lions, so its hard to feel confident about the upset possibility. 

Thoughts? 

Edited by Maithanet

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9 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

So in the pick em with my friends, we need to take one upset every week.  I'm split between Browns over Cincy or Lions over Bears.  Both picks seem possible, but not particularly likely.

That the Lions overperform on Thanksgiving is practically a truism in my mind.  I've watched over four decades of crappy Lions teams play like it was their Super Bowl that day.

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Just now, Bronn Stone said:

That the Lions overperform on Thanksgiving is practically a truism in my mind.  I've watched over four decades of crappy Lions teams play like it was their Super Bowl that day.

That's weird because my memory of the Lions on Thanksgiving is really different.  I feel like it's 50/50 whether you'll get a scrappy, overachieving Lions team or a "we have to watch three more hours of this garbage?" Lions team. 

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In the 2000's decade, it appears your memory is correct.  Less so in the 2010s.  Right now the Lions are on a streak on T-giving, having won four of the last five.  Trubisky on the bench (most likely) makes this your preferred upset play by a good amount, I think.

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15 minutes ago, Bronn Stone said:

In the 2000's decade, it appears your memory is correct.  Less so in the 2010s.  Right now the Lions are on a streak on T-giving, having won four of the last five.  Trubisky on the bench (most likely) makes this your preferred upset play by a good amount, I think.

Yeah, although since I odn't think Trubisky is all that good, going with the backup quarterback might not make much difference.  The main reason I don't think the Lions will win is because I think the Bears defense is going to control the game, like it did vs Minnesota. 

Apparently the Bears backup is Chase Daniel?  Hmm, a guy who's been in the league 10 years but has only thrown 78 passes.  I mean, it's kind of amazing.  He continues to beat out guys for the backup qb job, so maybe he doesn't suck?  But nobody really knows for sure. 

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I'm relying on Daniel in Westeros Experts League Fantasy Football.  I hope you're right about him.  But I think Trubisky is "competent-plus" (along the lines of young Alex Smith while he still had two legs).

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Take the Lions if Mitch is out. That combined with the other factors going against the Bears should be enough to get the Lions over the finish line.  

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In my head that game is a 50-50 coin toss.  About the best you can get if you must take an underdog.

Edited to add: Though if I had to take an upset, I'd take GB > MIN ahead of CLE > CIN

Edited by Bronn Stone

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@Maithanet,

Speaking of which, how did your guys' week go, because our league here was a disaster:

Rank Pick Set Name Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 P1 P2 P3 P4 Total Pts Dropped Pts
1 dbunting 87 85 65 99 95 96 87 98 68 68 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 848 48
2 Kessler's Sports Book 84 84 73 87 73 79 86 101 75 72 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 814 45
3 White Harbor Bakers 91 82 71 77 86 87 87 91 71 70 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 813 33
4 Bronze Stones 80 69 78 89 93 101 83 90 69 59 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 811 53
5 Ramsay 76 79 63 88 90 87 75 98 73 71 54 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 800 54
6 aceluby 90 81 52 81 88 91 86 95 64 72 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 800 41
7 Tywin 81 87 69 84 90 80 85 84 76 57 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 793 36
8 Lumpy the Greek 81 78 59 98 78 83 90 71 67 78 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 783 47
9 Joe Pesci 93 71 51 85 69 87 79 95 79 64 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 773 35
10 ThatPyroFlow 65 61 81 74 78 95 74 91 72 78 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 769 38
11 rocksniffer 78 85 55 80 79 73 66 103 59 80 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 758 45
12 Sunspear Serpents 92 77 84 94 84 91 69 65 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 715 0

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@Jace, Basilissa

We need to talk. Your bearded, balding Cro-Magnon lover looks like he's back. He's second in the league in TDs, has thrown at least 3 TDs in each of his last 7 games, which puts him in a rare group and he hasn't been sacked in 5 weeks. And they're playing solid D too. If you keep rolling and the Texans slip, you might be playoff bound.

What I'm saying is that the Ponies are back! 

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2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

@Jace, Basilissa

We need to talk. Your bearded, balding Cro-Magnon lover looks like he's back. He's second in the league in TDs, has thrown at least 3 TDs in each of his last 7 games, which puts him in a rare group and he hasn't been sacked in 5 weeks. And they're playing solid D too. If you keep rolling and the Texans slip, you might be playoff bound.

What I'm saying is that the Ponies are back! 

Yeah and I just missed my fucking flight. 

You know how humiliating it was to arrive as the door closed!?!

In front of all those NORMALS?

I've never been more disgusted at myself

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Luck's re-emergence is an underrated storyline in this season I think because Indy got off to a shite start.  They are still a long shot for the postseason, so they're not high-profile, but this guy was on the path to being one of the top QB's of his era before the injuries.  

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21 minutes ago, KingintheNorth4 said:

The Lions have the worst pass rush in the league, so Chase Daniel will be fine.

You forgot one important thing. 

He is but Chase Daniels

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I only got to watch Q2 and Q4 but glad the Bears won.  That pick 6 was beautiful, and a great interception to hold on for the win.  Not the Bears best performance but a good win on the road against a motivated opponent, and missing the QB.  

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