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Biggest Mistake Made by Robb

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13 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

I could see it I guess, when Robb got injured taking the Crag Jeyne was the one to patch him up. So her slipping an aphrodisiac to Robb isnt that crazy.

What I dont see is Tywin knowing Robb would take the crag, and get injured and then marrying Jeyne instead od leaving her with a basterd like his father's son. But there was collusion so you may be on to something.ye

Well, I doubt it was Jeyne, at least knowlingly. Sybell was the one who was plotting here; Jeyne seems to have truly fallen for Robb. Or maybe they were both given a potion?

They would have known that Robb was heading for the Crag long before he got there. He went from Oxcross to Asheford to Castamere, the Crag was next in line. And sure, there were no guarantees here. But which is a safer bet, just hope that Robb falls in love naturally or use a magic potion to make sure he does? After that, it was a pretty safe bet that Robb would marry her.

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14 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

What I dont see is Tywin knowing Robb would take the crag, and get injured and then marrying Jeyne instead od leaving her with a basterd like his father's son. But there was collusion so you may be on to something.ye

 

*snip*

 

With regards to this whole Roose taking half the army, obviously not great. Maybe a Dustin or something would have been better, but whos to say they wouldnt betray Robb as well? Robb lost Winterfell before his army started to abandon him, do you really think Walder cares about his daughters honor? Or about being on the winning side of the war?

Robb lost to Theon, again the real blame should be on Ramsay and Ser Rodrick

I think Sybell was working up the potion angle to hedge her bets. If the Starks win the war, she's majorly improved her family's standings, especially if Tywin and his loyal vassals end up getting attainted by whoever becomes the King. I think she contacted Tywin after Robb and Jeyne had hooked up, and was keeping an eye on which way the wind was blowing the whole time.

For the second part, I've said the same. If Tywin had lost/the Starks hadn't lost Winterfell/etc., I think Walder Frey would have taken the insult a little better. Probably just used the opportunity to weedle some more concessions. Once he thought that Robb was going to lose, however, the Freys were looking to back out however they could. The insult just gave them more of an excuse (in their mind).

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I am going to say Theon for a couple of reasons.

1) The grief over Bran and Rickon's deaths pushed him into Jeyne's arms.

but also, 2) losing the North to the Ironborn is one of the reasons that Robb's bannermen started losing faith in him.  I believe that when Winterfell fell is when Tywin made overtures to Roose Bolton, playing on the fact that the Boltons were not exactly zealous servants to the Starks.

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For me his biggest mistake was listening to his mother after her negotiations with Walder Frey.  He gave up way too much to cross the Twins.  He was leading an army to releive the seige at Riverun, to save Walder's leige lord from a Lannister army.  I think Robb could have spent at least one more day in negotiations to come to an agreement that did not include his own betrothal.  

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On 11/7/2018 at 8:25 AM, Karlshammar said:

I gotta admit that I'm a little bit confused by your latest post, Hugorfonics. I'm not 100% sure what point you are trying to make, but I _think_ you are saying that the Targaryens were absolute monarchs?

Thats what Im saying. Im also saying Robb Joff and Stannis and the Greyjoys were too. 
With Tommen its getting interesting, there seems to be some laws in the making that may curb the power of the regent. Though still not the king so its still kinda absolutish. Euron also rules with the iron fist but the kingsmoot does have some type of authority over his throne. But this is the seastone, not the iron.
We see Stannis pardoning traitors and begging northern tribes to fight, however in theory they should have always been loyal and fighting for Stannis, as he likes to say

On 11/7/2018 at 8:25 AM, Karlshammar said:

They weren't, though. As GRRM once mentioned, when you have dragons, you can get away with a lot. People are less likely to resist when they risk facing a hungry, fire-breathing monster, heh. But even Aegon the Conqueror had to concede a lot. He adopted the local religion of the Seven, accepted the abolition of slavery (a mainstay of Valyrian civilization, and a major foundation of the entire Freehold and its colonies), After him polygamy virtual ceased to exist, and the incest was drastically dialed down.

 Aegon made compromises and did well in integrating himself with the locals, mainly through the faith. However I doubt he was a devout believer. The Targs may have tried to distance themselves from polygamy and incest but these things are still associated with Targ. Cersei screams We are not Targs while Dany is eyeing up Darrio. The Targaryens are thought of differently then other people, similar to the others. (let the others take you), even if its just in their subconscious 
Dragons, yea. Stark gave them one look before he bent the knee. While dragons were flying the rule of Targaryen couldnt really be more absolute. 

 

On 11/7/2018 at 8:25 AM, Karlshammar said:

The breaking of Joffrey's vow to Sansa is a perfect example of how the monarchy was feudal rather than absolute. Sansa's original liege, her father Ned, had been executed as a traitor to the crown. Her next liege, her brother lord and then king Robb, had also turned traitor to the crown and broken his fealty, even going to outright war against the crown.

Despite this, Joffrey was _still_ considered bound by his vow. He had to put on a huge public show and get the blessing of the High Septon and his confirmation that the gods considered him no longer to be bound by his vow (which wasn't even his vow, but his parents, and he wasn't even of age yet).
 

Im not sure how huge this political show was or how necessary or the amount Tyrions Septon had to say on the matter, but yea there was something. 
But whos to say Robb wasnt influenced by a tree?

On 11/7/2018 at 8:25 AM, Karlshammar said:

The Seven Kingdoms never practiced absolutism, and even less so after the death of the dragons.

So I dont like using SSM because of reasons but, its kinda pertinent and my day old attorney general has been pissing me off.... 

.
And Joffrey likes to remind everyone that he’s king. And he thinks that gives him the ability to do anything. And we’re not an absolute monarchy, like Westeros is. We’re a constitutional republic. And yet, Trump doesn’t seem to know what that means. He thinks the presidency gives him the power to do anything. And so, yeah, Joffrey is Trump.
.
Joffrey does want to do anything he wants. Tyrion reminds him that Aerys thought the same, but what laws are there to curb Joffreys power?
Westeros should not be absolute. It doesnt make any sense really since the last dragon died, nevertheless KL still commands its influence over the seven kingdoms, despite its army consisting of gold cloaks and seven knights (except in the places that have since rebelled since Robert died)

Edited by Hugorfonics

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On 11/7/2018 at 9:55 AM, John Suburbs said:

Well, I doubt it was Jeyne, at least knowlingly. Sybell was the one who was plotting here;

i was thinking like Sybell gives Jeyne the medicine and tells her how to apply it. Which is probably what happened. Aphrodisiac or not.

On 11/7/2018 at 9:55 AM, John Suburbs said:

 Jeyne seems to have truly fallen for Robb. Or maybe they were both given a potion?

She does. But hes a young handsome king, who wouldnt fall?

Maybe

On 11/7/2018 at 9:55 AM, John Suburbs said:

They would have known that Robb was heading for the Crag long before he got there. He went from Oxcross to Asheford to Castamere, the Crag was next in line. And sure, there were no guarantees here. But which is a safer bet, just hope that Robb falls in love naturally or use a magic potion to make sure he does? After that, it was a pretty safe bet that Robb would marry her.

You got me till the safe bet. Basterds are a thing. Robb himself had a brother and best friend of a basterd. If anything Id guess that  the perception was Starks were cool with having basterds, though it turnes out to be the exact opposite

 

22 hours ago, Lluewhyn said:

I think Sybell was working up the potion angle to hedge her bets. If the Starks win the war, she's majorly improved her family's standings, especially if Tywin and his loyal vassals end up getting attainted by whoever becomes the King. I think she contacted Tywin after Robb and Jeyne had hooked up, and was keeping an eye on which way the wind was blowing the whole time.

Ok, afterwards. I always assumed before. Both are possible i guess.

 

22 hours ago, Lluewhyn said:

For the second part, I've said the same. If Tywin had lost/the Starks hadn't lost Winterfell/etc., I think Walder Frey would have taken the insult a little better. Probably just used the opportunity to weedle some more concessions. Once he thought that Robb was going to lose, however, the Freys were looking to back out however they could. The insult just gave them more of an excuse (in their mind).

Exactly. I mean Karstark would probably have ditched Robb regardless, but Walder is extra weaselish

Edited by Hugorfonics

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14 hours ago, Belgarad said:

For me his biggest mistake was listening to his mother after her negotiations with Walder Frey.  He gave up way too much to cross the Twins.  He was leading an army to releive the seige at Riverun, to save Walder's leige lord from a Lannister army.  I think Robb could have spent at least one more day in negotiations to come to an agreement that did not include his own betrothal.  

The price to cross was reasonable.  The Starks were asking the Freys to betray their king, a heinous act of rebellion. 

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2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

i was thinking like Sybell gives Jeyne the medicine and tells her how to apply it. Which is probably what happened. Aphrodisiac or not.

She does. But hes a young handsome king, who wouldnt fall?

Maybe

You got me till the safe bet. Basterds are a thing. Robb himself had a brother and best friend of a basterd. If anything Id guess that  the perception was Starks were cool with having basterds, though it turnes out to be the exact opposite

It doesn't seem like Jeyne is aware of what Sybell is doing. The poultice to make her fertile was most likely doing the exact opposite, but she would have known this if she were being schooled in the dark arts. And her distress during the convo with Jaime seemed genuine to me, so I'm going under the assumption that Jeyne was not part of the plot.

Yes, it probably would be fairly easy for Jeyne to fall for young, handsome King Robb. But again, with so much on the line, would Sybell be content to just hope this happens, or would she take steps to make sure it happens?

I'm not so sure Tywin was counting on Robb's reaction to having a bastard as much as it was to deflowering Jeyne. With the love potion still active, he isn't likely to just abandon her to her tears and her shame. Plus, she would have both Sybell and Rolph in his face taking about how kings should do the honorable thing, or else go down in history like AtU.

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4 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Thats what Im saying. Im also saying Robb Joff and Stannis and the Greyjoys were too. 
With Tommen its getting interesting, there seems to be some laws in the making that may curb the power of the regent. Though still not the king so its still kinda absolutish. Euron also rules with the iron fist but the kingsmoot does have some type of authority over his throne. But this is the seastone, not the iron.
We see Stannis pardoning traitors and begging northern tribes to fight, however in theory they should have always been loyal and fighting for Stannis, as he likes to say

 Aegon made compromises and did well in integrating himself with the locals, mainly through the faith. However I doubt he was a devout believer. The Targs may have tried to distance themselves from polygamy and incest but these things are still associated with Targ. Cersei screams We are not Targs while Dany is eyeing up Darrio. The Targaryens are thought of differently then other people, similar to the others. (let the others take you), even if its just in their subconscious 
Dragons, yea. Stark gave them one look before he bent the knee. While dragons were flying the rule of Targaryen couldnt really be more absolute. 

 

Im not sure how huge this political show was or how necessary or the amount Tyrions Septon had to say on the matter, but yea there was something. 
But whos to say Robb wasnt influenced by a tree?

So I dont like using SSM because of reasons but, its kinda pertinent and my day old attorney general has been pissing me off.... 

.
And Joffrey likes to remind everyone that he’s king. And he thinks that gives him the ability to do anything. And we’re not an absolute monarchy, like Westeros is. We’re a constitutional republic. And yet, Trump doesn’t seem to know what that means. He thinks the presidency gives him the power to do anything. And so, yeah, Joffrey is Trump.
.
Joffrey does want to do anything he wants. Tyrion reminds him that Aerys thought the same, but what laws are there to curb Joffreys power?
Westeros should not be absolute. It doesnt make any sense really since the last dragon died, nevertheless KL still commands its influence over the seven kingdoms, despite its army consisting of gold cloaks and seven knights (except in the places that have since rebelled since Robert died)

Wikipedia uses the definition that an absolute monarchy is "a form of monarchy in which one leader has supreme authority and where that authority is not restricted by any written laws, legislature, or customs."

But all of the kings have been bound by various customs.

This isn't really the case with any of the kings, except perhaps Aegon. But that was only after he bowed to many major Westerosi customs. Maegor tried, and failed, to exercise absolute authority.

Like you say, Stannis thinks the northern tribes should have been loyal and fighting for him anyway. But they weren't and didn't, until he flattered them.  And GRRM is correct in that Joffrey wants to do anything he wants (of course he's correct, it's his character, heh), but he's not correct in likening the Iron Throne to an absolute monarchy. In reality, Joffrey couldn't do anything he wanted. In fact, basically his entire reign was spent in open warfare with people who didn't care to obey his will.

You make a good point about Joffrey's army. He basically has none. He has to rely on his vassals keeping their oaths of fealty, another feature of a vassal system rather than absolutism.

One could make arguments that certain periods of time have been, or at least close to having been, absolutist. But definitely not since the dragons died, and certainly not in the time after the death of Robert when large parts of the Seven Kingdoms have been in open rebellion trying to unseat and possibly even kill the king.

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2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It doesn't seem like Jeyne is aware of what Sybell is doing. The poultice to make her fertile was most likely doing the exact opposite, but she would have known this if she were being schooled in the dark arts. And her distress during the convo with Jaime seemed genuine to me, so I'm going under the assumption that Jeyne was not part of the plot.

 

Based upon the conversations that she had with both Catelyn, and Jaime, I'd agree. Plus, we know for certain that several members of the family were not aware to their detriment, so it makes sense that Jeyne would also not know as well. Plus, makes a nice variation on Roslyn who did now what was going to happen and was very distraught about it.

One theory I've read is that the WoW prologue (or maybe later in the story) will show the upcoming Frey wedding in Riverrun, and thus Red Wedding 2.0. We'll see the BwB execute their revenge against the Freys, and Jeyne's going to be an unfortunate casualty (Lady Stoneheart might blame her, but the readers would know she's innocent). Part of the analysis of the theme of the destructive nature of revenge that GRRM has been leaning into, as the readers see the innocents harmed.

 

 

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Honestly, his biggest mistake, and the one that irritated me the most, is not listening to Greywind.  Jon did the same at the Wall.  What's the point of having a direwolf as a guardian angel if you don't listen to them?

That being said, it didn't help sending Theon away, though I can see why he did it.  He trusted Theon like a brother and he never would have imagined Theon would be betray him

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9 hours ago, The Piper Report said:

Honestly, his biggest mistake, and the one that irritated me the most, is not listening to Greywind.  Jon did the same at the Wall.  What's the point of having a direwolf as a guardian angel if you don't listen to them?

That being said, it didn't help sending Theon away, though I can see why he did it.  He trusted Theon like a brother and he never would have imagined Theon would be betray him

Said the same thing a few posts up. It blows my mind that Robb knows that all the previous Kings of Winter/North had their wolves and he still fights against his inner warg. If he were to embrace if he would most likely still be alive.

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Well not sure if any one mentioned or not, but not making his high lords aware of his plan was pretty daft and proved his undoing more than anything else.

Had he simply told Edmure who was commanding part of his army, that he had planned to pin Tywin in the Westerlands, then House Lannister would have fallen in book 2. 

Instead, Edmure, unaware, tries to save his king, and probably gain personal victory, blocked Tywin from entering the West. There by allowing him to quickly turn south towards K.L. when Stannis suddenly attacked. Allowing the Lannisters to marshal their forces, collect them selves, and send a couple well placed letters. Ending House Stark nearly instead of House Lannister. 

Rob could have married who he wanted and Walder would have to bugger him self over the matter or get crushed and his house raised to the ground. Cautious Walder would never have acted with out Tywin's backing. Roose may have, but likely would have had to resort to some other tactic, also not having the backing of Tywin in his corner or House Lannister. 

Stannis would have sacked K.L. possibly as Tywin's army never would have showed up and it would be questionable what the Queen of Thorns or Little Finger would have done then. Though with Renly gone, Rob would have no choice but to back Stannis or risk war with him to be King of the North. (Edit) We know Robb actually supported Stannis as rightful heir to Robert.

With Tywin out of the way that early into book 2, may have afforded Robb the time needed to ride North and deal with the Iron born and Theon. 

Doran, Doran would probably be a little relieved but bummed he didn't get to serve any justice him self. Unknown if he would except Stannis as King though i see no reason why not. Stannis is the rightful heir to Robert. 

All would be right in the world but for poor Ned, Mordaine, Serio, and the Northern guard that came south, the Others and that angry dragon chick in the east.

Edited by AlaskanSandman

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On 11/2/2018 at 7:59 PM, divica said:

The king thing isn t that bad. We saw with renly that they could have achieved some agreement. So it only really creates a problem with stannis… And if things really got bad he could always negotiate with stannis that he would take the black while bran becomes warden of the north. His war is with the lannisters, so if stannis won the war it should be a possible outcome.

His biggest mistake was giving his mother any power. Even with things as bad as they were after renly died if she had made an aliance with the tyrells then they would have won the war (stannis takes KL and the tyrells attack tywin from behind and then they all attack KL). Then there was the Jaime release thing that further complicates his situation with his bannermen...

 

Even if sending theon away cost him winterfell (balon would probably always attack the north even if it costs him his son that he really doesn t like) giving power to his mother costs him the war.

Balon was already planning on attacking the North before he even knew Theon was back, he wanted Theon dead so he couldn't interfere with Asha Greyjoys ascension to the throne. Theon is a green lander and he knows it and wants a real Iron born to rule. 

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On 11/2/2018 at 1:20 PM, Legitimate_Bastard said:

The Red Wedding was bad for Robb, but Theon was bad for Winterfell and everyone in it. I think Theons actions have had more of an impact in the long run than the Red Wedding.

You think Theon's actions had more of an impact in the long run than the Red Wedding? Robb was killed at the red wedding, I don't think you could have a worse impact in the long run!

 

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23 hours ago, Karlshammar said:

Wikipedia uses the definition that an absolute monarchy is "a form of monarchy in which one leader has supreme authority and where that authority is not restricted by any written laws, legislature, or customs."

But all of the kings have been bound by various customs.

This isn't really the case with any of the kings, except perhaps Aegon. But that was only after he bowed to many major Westerosi customs. Maegor tried, and failed, to exercise absolute authority.

So we do have laws, theres some dudes job called master of laws. But when Tyrion found out Joffrey tried to kill Bran his chances for prosecuting Joff was pretty much 0. But what do you think in theory? Can a king face judgement? (Faith aside, although its pretty relevant with all this Maegor and Tommen talk) what about in real times, could Charlemagne be prosecuted for attempted murder?

But wiki probably means laws in more of specific to restricting the king sense, like the magna carta, which Westeros certainly has nothing like. 

Speaking of kings, laws, murder and funny Westeros customs; Rickard Stark. Robert did not go to war to avange Rickard, what Aerys did was cruel and by all accounts mad, but it seems kinda legal to me. And if thats legal (like Joff shooting a crossbow into the crowds) I dont see how hes not absolute

23 hours ago, Karlshammar said:

Like you say, Stannis thinks the northern tribes should have been loyal and fighting for him anyway. But they weren't and didn't, until he flattered them.  And GRRM is correct in that Joffrey wants to do anything he wants (of course he's correct, it's his character, heh), but he's not correct in likening the Iron Throne to an absolute monarchy. In reality, Joffrey couldn't do anything he wanted. In fact, basically his entire reign was spent in open warfare with people who didn't care to obey his will.

You make a good point about Joffrey's army. He basically has none. He has to rely on his vassals keeping their oaths of fealty, another feature of a vassal system rather than absolutism.

One could make arguments that certain periods of time have been, or at least close to having been, absolutist. But definitely not since the dragons died, and certainly not in the time after the death of Robert when large parts of the Seven Kingdoms have been in open rebellion trying to unseat and possibly even kill the king.

Yea so in realty nobody attended Joffs summons, itd be as likely as the northern tribes sailing to Dragonstone for Stannis', theyre still breaking the law. They saw they were summoned, itd just be stupid to go. People break the laws all the time that doesnt really change the type of government.

The lack of a KL army is staggering, its egregious that anyone followed Aerys, or that it took over a hundred years for the Lords to realize that Targaryen could be defeated. What may be the craziest is that Robert had no laws in place to truly distinguish himself from Aerys, an understable move though, why limit yourself? 

Westeors lords are too greedy. Too used to ruling with the iron fist, no wonder the Essos folk call em savages

 

"Let the three of you call for a Great Council, such as the realm has not seen for a hundred years. We will send to Winterfell, so Bran may tell his tale and all men may know the Lannisters for the true usurpers. Let the assembled lords of the Seven Kingdoms choose who shall rule them."

Renly laughed.

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On 11/8/2018 at 12:45 PM, John Suburbs said:

It doesn't seem like Jeyne is aware of what Sybell is doing. The poultice to make her fertile was most likely doing the exact opposite, but she would have known this if she were being schooled in the dark arts. And her distress during the convo with Jaime seemed genuine to me, so I'm going under the assumption that Jeyne was not part of the plot.

Yes, it probably would be fairly easy for Jeyne to fall for young, handsome King Robb. But again, with so much on the line, would Sybell be content to just hope this happens, or would she take steps to make sure it happens?

I'm not so sure Tywin was counting on Robb's reaction to having a bastard as much as it was to deflowering Jeyne. With the love potion still active, he isn't likely to just abandon her to her tears and her shame. Plus, she would have both Sybell and Rolph in his face taking about how kings should do the honorable thing, or else go down in history like AtU.

Im pretty sure Robb married Jeyne because of the trauma Jon and Cat went through 

.

Robb knew something was wrong. "My mother . . . "

"She was . . . very kind," Jon told him.

Robb looked relieved.

.

Jon and Cat have very repressed emotions woth this whole basterd issue, Im sure this rubbed off on Robb which I think convinced him to marry Jeyne. "Ill never father a basterd" I mean thats Jon not Robb, but it was like his mantra. 

Its more of a reason then just smashing. Although i suppose the aphrodisiac coulda been really potent and made him marry her without really thinking, but i doubt it (not the whole thing, just the extreme parts) we see his come down from the drug but it could also be his greywind nightmares. As far as her fams telling him to do the right thing, his squire was Frey, hed be talking too

 

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Sending off Theon, Robb tells Cat that he married Jeyne because he slept with her and he slept with her because he was grieving. Therefore if he hadn't sent off Theon he wouldn't have pissed off Walder

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2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Im pretty sure Robb married Jeyne because of the trauma Jon and Cat went through 

.

Robb knew something was wrong. "My mother . . . "

"She was . . . very kind," Jon told him.

Robb looked relieved.

.

Jon and Cat have very repressed emotions woth this whole basterd issue, Im sure this rubbed off on Robb which I think convinced him to marry Jeyne. "Ill never father a basterd" I mean thats Jon not Robb, but it was like his mantra. 

Its more of a reason then just smashing. Although i suppose the aphrodisiac coulda been really potent and made him marry her without really thinking, but i doubt it (not the whole thing, just the extreme parts) we see his come down from the drug but it could also be his greywind nightmares. As far as her fams telling him to do the right thing, his squire was Frey, hed be talking too

 

Well, there's a difference between falling in love and getting married. The love potion can take care of the love part, but it's character that delivers on the second. From what I read during the council meeting when all of this was being discussed, they were counting on Robb's inclination to maintain Jeyne's honor in order to produce the marriage, not fear of fathering a bastard:

Quote

"He's a boy of sixteen," said Lord Tywin. "At that age, sense weighs for little, against lust and love and honor."

"He chose the girl's honor over his own. Once he had deflowered her, he had no other course."

Given that Robb's own father had a bastard, one might assume that Robb merely having shagged Jeyne in a fit of emotion-laden passion might not be enough to produce a marriage. But if Robb felt he was deeply and truly in love with her and would do anything to spare her shame and embarrassment … 

I don't see how a simple nightmare would cause someone to push away their true love, but I suppose it's possible. But wouldn't that cause one to wonder whether he is still in love with her at this point?

I'm not sure Olyvar Frey would have had enough sway over Robb to prevent the marriage, but the fact that he didn't suggests even further that Robb was under the influence of something powerful and not willing to listen to reason.

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