US Politics: Four Days and Counting

[Ran]

Just now, Fragile Bird said:

You are making things up, just like Trump. ‘Not under the jurisdiction of the US’ would mean you couldn’t arrest them for any crime, from parking tickets all the way to murder.

To be fair, some serious legal scholars suggest that that wording doesn't quite mean what you argue it does. See what I linked above, and the fact that a highly regarded jurist like Richard Posner gives this some credence. Doesn't mean they are right, but it may not be as clear cut as the wording may suggest.

 

[BigFatCoward]

Realistically when can we expect to know how its going (UK time).

[Ran]

Just now, BigFatCoward said:

Realistically when can we expect to know how its going (UK time).

Polls start closing from midnight GMT in some states, and on until the very last state (Alaska) closes its polls at 5AM GMT. Exit polls and surveys should start getting results from each state after the voting closes. by 8AM GMT things should be set outside of whatever races require recounts or are otherwise contested.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, BigFatCoward said:

Realistically when can we expect to know how its going (UK time).

Should have a pretty solid idea by 9-10 EST, so I guess 2-3 UK time.  Won't know Arizona or Nevada by then, so the Senate'd be up in the air,  but definitely should get a good sense of how the House and Gubernatorial races are going by then.

[Frog Eater]

10 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

You are making things up, just like Trump. ‘Not under the jurisdiction of the US’ would mean you couldn’t arrest them for any crime, from parking tickets all the way to murder. Because they aren’t in the jurisdiction of the US. Diplomatic immunity.

I'm not making it up, I am quoting from the Heritage Foundation

The fact that a tourist or illegal alien is subject to our laws and our courts if they violate our laws does not place them within the political “jurisdiction” of the United States as that phrase was defined by the framers of the 14th Amendment.

This amendment’s language was derived from the 1866 Civil Rights Act, which provided that “[a]ll persons born in the United States, and not subject to any foreign power” would be considered citizens.

https://www.heritage.org/immigration/commentary/birthright-citizenship-fundamental-misunderstanding-the-14th-amendment

Plus, I already said on the previous page and on previous days, that it wouldnt hold up in court

[DMC]

10 minutes ago, Frog Eater said:

I'm not making it up, I am quoting from the Heritage Foundation

Ah.  So you're not making it up.  You're quoting from someone else that's making it up.

[Fragile Bird]

3 minutes ago, Frog Eater said:

<snip>

That article is a load of bs. Of course a tourist is under the jurisdiction of the US when they visit. Why the heck did everyone say ‘How stupid can you be to travel to Norrh Korea when that puts you under the jurisdiction of the North Koreans’ when that kid got arrested, the one who died? You travel to a country, you put yourself under the jurisdiction of that country, unless you have s diplomatic passport.

Interpreting the 14th amendment the way the article suggests just shows Conservatives are hypocrites. All the arguments about the meaning of the 2nd amendment as written 200 years ago are utterly rejected by gun supporters 7 days a week.

[Jace, Extat]

Got some Chinese, some weed, some Canadian Whiskey, and a burning desire to reform the Austro-Hungarian Empire and stop Fascism in its tracks by defeating Hitler's resurgent Germany in the field before 1938. 

Cheers, all!

[Mexal]

Looks to be huge turnout across the board. Trump's late immigration appeals seems to be driving a lot of enthusiasm on both sides.

[Fez]

13 minutes ago, Ran said:

Polls start closing from midnight GMT in some states, and on until the very last state (Alaska) closes its polls at 5AM GMT. Exit polls and surveys should start getting results from each state after the voting closes. by 8AM GMT things should be set outside of whatever races require recounts or are otherwise contested.

Worth noting, the AP is not doing traditional exit poll this year. Instead they're doing some new survey called VoteCast in conjunction with Fox and and a bunch of newspapers. CNN, ABC, CBS, and NBC are still doing traditional exit polling, but considering how off exit polls often are; its probably best to ignore them. No idea if VoteCast will do any better.

First polls close at 6pm (all times EST) in parts of Indiana and Kentucky, many more close at 7pm. With the lag in reporting results, my guess is that by 830pm we have a good idea of where things are going in the House and be certain by 930pm. The Senate may not be clear until 11pm or even later.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Trump going full Andrew Jackson has worried me for two years.  If he does he will burn some of his supporters who think he pulls stunts like the EO for dramatic effect.  I think that’s why he has refrained from the “Full Jackson” so far.  We will see.

His supporters won’t care. They’re just like the party members from 1984. Once the party’s position changes, so will theirs and it will be as if nothing happened.

Trump hasn’t gone full Jackson yet because he hasn’t had to. He’s had the legislature to lean on and blame. But if Democrats retake either chamber (or both), I expect his EOs to become even more extreme and be challenged in the courts. That’s when we’ll see if he’ll do it or not.

[Jace, Extat]

2 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Looks to be huge turnout across the board. Trump's late immigration appeals seems to be driving a lot of enthusiasm on both sides.

What is this flip-floppity?. I want scalding hot takes or nothing.

[DMC]

9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Trump hasn’t gone full Jackson yet because he hasn’t had to. He’s had the legislature to lean on and blame. But if Democrats retake either chamber (or both), I expect his EOs to become even more extreme and be challenged in the courts. That’s when we’ll see if he’ll do it or not.

Trump has been chastened by the courts with his EOs while enjoying unified government.  The added constraint of divided government limits such efforts, not exacerbates them.  This has been a consistent finding since Howell (2003).

[drawkcabi]

I went out and voted today. First time I voted in the midterms since 1998. First time I went to my polling station to vote since 2008. In '12 and '16 I voted by absentee ballot. This year I didn't ask for the absentee ballots because I usually don't in midterms. As election day kept getting closer and closer and Trump and the GOP kept pulling more and more of their shit, I felt more and more like a heel, so I decided hell or high water I'm voting this year.

So I got my fat ass out there, I voted, then I went to sit on a chair in the polling station because my feet and knees and back were killing me, I braced the chair up against a table, but didn't realize the table was so light, as I was sitting down my fat ass pushed both table and chair away and I fell right on my aforementioned fat ass.

People tried to help me up but I was too heavy, had to end up calling 911 and they pulled me up. 

But I got my vote counted today.

My lesson: In 2020, I'm getting those absentee ballots way, way, wayyyyyy ahead of time. 

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, Fez said:

First polls close at 6pm (all times EST) in parts of Indiana and Kentucky, many more close at 7pm. With the lag in reporting results, my guess is that by 830pm we have a good idea of where things are going in the House and be certain by 930pm. The Senate may not be clear until 11pm or even later.

We'll know by 8:30 if the Democrats are having a really good night (D+35 or better), but if Democrats are underachieving only slightly (say in the D+18 to D+28 range), it'll probably be a long night before we find out the truth.  If we have to wait and see how California's races go, we'll be waiting a long time indeed.

Conversely, here's a quick list of the house races to check that are closing early-ish.  All Democrats win percentages are from 538's rating.

6PM:  KY-6 - 46% chance,

7 PM: VA-10 (90% chance), FL-27 (85%), FL-26 (56%), VA-5 (46%), VA-2 (44%).

7:30 PM: NC-9 48% chance, NC-13 39% chance, OH-12 38% chance. 

If we knew the outcomes of those races only, we'd have a really good idea of who wins the House.  If the Democrats win 2 or fewer from that list, they're probably going to come up short.  If they win 3 or 4, it'll be a long night (although 4 is probably enough).  If they win 5 or more, Democrats will win the House.

[DMC]

So how many of y'all are in states with No-Excuse Absentee Voting?  In the eight cycles I've now participated in since 2004, the only time I actually went to a ballot box was for the Democratic primary in 2008 - which ironically was the only vote that actually didn't matter since the DNC stripped Michigan and Florida of their delegates that year for moving their primaries up on the calendar.  Anyway, mail voting is totally the way to  go.

[Maithanet]

8 minutes ago, drawkcabi said:

People tried to help me up but I was too heavy, had to end up calling 911 and they pulled me up. 

But I got my vote counted today.

My lesson: In 2020, I'm getting those absentee ballots way, way, wayyyyyy ahead of time. 

I'm so sorry, that really sucks!  I'm glad you were able to do your civic duty nonetheless.

[aceluby]

8 minutes ago, DMC said:

So how many of y'all are in states with No-Excuse Absentee Voting?  In the eight cycles I've now participated in since 2004, the only time I actually went to a ballot box was for the Democratic primary in 2008 - which ironically was the only vote that actually didn't matter since the DNC stripped Michigan and Florida of their delegates that year for moving their primaries up on the calendar.  Anyway, mail voting is totally the way to  go.

Yep, voted in-person at my city hall on Friday with my wife.  Took 10 min when it usually takes over an hour and scanned it right there, just like I was voting today.  Will probably do this from now on since it was so easy.

[Fragile Bird]

I can’t imagine a Western democracy where polls close at 6:00 pm. It’s almost like they’re trying to discourage working people from voting.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

41 minutes ago, DMC said:

Trump has been chastened by the courts with his EOs while enjoying unified government.  The added constraint of divided government limits such efforts, not exacerbates them.  This has been a consistent finding since Howell (2003).

What makes you say that? I would assume that a divided government would drive him to take increasing aggressive actions when it comes to Eos. Furthermore, and as I’ve said before, Trump is atypical. He’s an outlier. I would not predict his actions based on the past behaviors of previous presidents and politicians.