Fez Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wethers said: 538 just increased Republican projected chances of winning House to 2 in 3. Think you meant Democratic, not Republican. But still, its dropped again, to a 52.6% chance. It was over 90% like 30 minutes. Getting way too many flashbacks to 2016 right now. ETA: Nope. Turns out my computer was running slow on refreshing the page. Holy fuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Just now, Fez said: Think you meant Democratic, not Republican. But still, its dropped again, to a 52.6% chance. It was over 90% like 30 minutes. Getting way too many flashbacks to 2016 right now. Yea. I'm drinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Fez said: Think you meant Democratic, not Republican. But still, its dropped again, to a 52.6% chance. It was over 90% like 30 minutes. Getting way too many flashbacks to 2016 right now. Now down to 39% for Dems. This is 2016 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wethers Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Fez said: Think you meant Democratic, not Republican. But still, its dropped again, to a 52.6% chance. It was over 90% like 30 minutes. Getting way too many flashbacks to 2016 right now. Yeah Democratic. Down to 40% now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 I'm going to be fucking sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 So, probably the Democrats pick up a handful of seats, but not enough to flip the majority? I look forward to seeing the national vote turnout and the national red/blue split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Back to 4 in 7 for the Dems to win the House. Still to early really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Just now, The Anti-Targ said: So, probably the Democrats pick up a handful of seats, but not enough to flip the majority? Too early to tell. Since those last posts it went up to 4 in 7 they'd flipnthe house. Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wethers Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Just now, The Anti-Targ said: So, probably the Democrats pick up a handful of seats, but not enough to flip the majority? Flip-flopping around 50-50 to pick up House. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Chill. Out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Paxter said: Back to 4 in 7 for the Dems to win the House. Still to early really. Weirdly their live chat isn't discussing it at all. I wonder if they're having technical issues with the model. ETA: Finally they speak: Quote You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drawkcabi Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 C'mon after 2016 this shouldn't be a surprise if it all goes south. Take some deep breaths, find your center. Live again to fight another day. If the tide doesn't turn tonight, it will turn some day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impmk2 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 From 538: Quote NATHANIEL RAKICH 8:27 PM You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Fez said: Weirdly their live chat isn't discussing it at all. I wonder if they're having technical issues with the model. Comment from one of their writers: Quote You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wethers Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Nathaniel Rakich of 538 echoes DMC’s out suggestion regarding the projection just now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Fez said: Weirdly their live chat isn't discussing it at all. I wonder if they're having technical issues with the model. Yeah I was thinking that. Maybe it's too sensitive to results from early counting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 4 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: *cough* Germany *cough* Although, there the voting takes place on Sunday, not Tuesday for some weird historical reason. Bah, voting on Sunday is totally different than voting on a weekday. 6:00 pm on a weekday means you had to vote in an advance poll or very early in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karaddin Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 The youth vote is massively breaking Dem, 37% according to 538 which is way higher than past races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Voters File Emergency Lawsuit Seeking to Prevent Brian Kemp From Overseeing Georgia Election https://slate.com/technology/2018/11/brian-kemp-secretary-state-governor-candidate-lawsuit.html Quote Two hours before the polls were set to close in Georgia, a group of voters in the state filed an emergency lawsuit seeking to prevent Secretary of State Brian Kemp from presiding over the statewide election in which he’s a candidate for governor. Kemp is facing off against Stacey Abrams, who, if she wins, would be the first black woman to serve as a governor in the U.S. The five voters named as plaintiffs in the lawsuit want a restraining order that would bar Kemp from “being involved in the counting of votes, the certification of results, or any runoff or recount procedures,” according to a press release from Protect Democracy, the nonpartisan nonprofit representing the plaintiffs. The emergency lawsuit is the latest chapter in a book full of troubling complications surrounding the election in Georgia. In Slate, legal scholar Richard L. Hasen wrote that Kemp’s multitasking of overseeing the state’s election while running for governor is “perhaps the most outrageous example of election administration partisanship in the modern era.” The lawsuit hinges in part on Kemp’s decision this weekend to use his office as a platform to make unfounded accusations that the Georgia Democratic Party attempted to hack into the state’s voter registration system. On Saturday, a lawyer who represents election-security advocates told Kemp and the FBI of a potential flaw in the voter database that allowed anyone to access and edit supposedly private voter information. In response, Kemp announced his office would investigate the Democratic Party—without citing any evidence to support his claims that it had taken advantage of the vulnerability. Kemp has also come under scrutiny for holding up more than 50,000 voter registrations, purging existing voter rolls, and rejecting absentee ballots due to signature mismatches. Slate’s Mark Joseph Stern wrote that Kemp has “devoted his time in office to a ruthless campaign of voter suppression.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 3 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: Is there a western democracy other than the USA that holds elections on a week day? Canada. Every federal election people grumble about weekday voting and suggest it either be held on a weekend or a holiday be declared. Instead, there are lots of advance polling days. I think people would bitch about an election ruining their weekend! And our polls are open until 8:00 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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