Paxter Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Over on 538 the House forecast has improved markedly for the Dems. Pretty crazy though that the model went from 90% Dems to 50-50 and now back to 70% in just an hour or so of early counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Nate Cohn (and others) think Democrats are going to get a win in NY-11, which would be a true upset. Its Staten Island. Nothing called yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Just now, Fez said: Nate Cohn (and others) think Democrats are going to get a win in NY-11, which would be a true upset. Its Staten Island. Nothing called yet though. He also thinks Beto winning in TX is outside the margin of error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Starting to become clear the Dems are gonna pickup *at least around 30 seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Mexal said: He also thinks Beto winning in TX is outside the margin of error. In which direction? A few more House flips called, looks like there may truly be a blue wave specifically in the former lands of the mostly-extinct country club Republican. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Laura Kelly! Fuck you Kobach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Just now, Fez said: In which direction? A few more House flips called, looks like there may truly be a blue wave specifically in the former lands of the mostly-extinct country club Republican. Cohn thinks Cruz wins comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lany Freelove Cassandra Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Mass was never going to go dem. And that's probably fine. Maryland is weird though. Sadly Gillums loss means almost certainly an Abrams loss, and with the Ohio loss that's the big three gerrymandering cases that are firmly in the GOP bag. Hogan was never going to lose. He's been 15-20 points ahead in polls the whole time. He even had a 60% approval rating among AAs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Just now, Triskele said: Anyone have handy how many red-but-could-turn-blue House seats there are in California? If I recall there are quite a few, so that could represent some late drama. There's 4 the Dems should win, 2 more toss ups and 3 more outside shots. So yes, lots of opportunities there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Kobach losing is at least music to my ears. One of the super villains down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Just now, Mexal said: Cohn thinks Cruz wins comfortable. I think it's impressive he's lasted this long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drawkcabi Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 minute ago, DMC said: Laura Kelly! Fuck you Kobach! Hell yeah!!! I wouldn't be surprised at all with election hacking and rigging by hackers among other GOP Shenanigans. I think what's important is not to let that imbue despair but instead determination to keep chipping and pushing and pressing to straighten it out. If it needs to be a long game, we have to hold on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Luria winning in VA-2. If Spanberger can hold in VA-7, pretty solid for Dems in House. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mexal said: Cohn thinks Cruz wins comfortable. Shame. I didn't think Democrats would win the Senate (though clearly even my D+1 projection was wildly optimistic), but at this rate they're going to be in rough shape for 2020 too. There's some good targets on that map, but not that many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Democrats still doing incredibly well in PA and very poorly in NJ. Weird night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 NY-11 being called for Rose (D) which is a big upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wethers Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 538 now back up above 90% for Dems to take the House. Less than 3% (my translation: 0%) to take the Senate. How many Dem Senate seats are we looking at - 46? 47? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 And now the 538 model is back up to 90% for the Dems in the House. All over red rover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Wethers said: 538 now back up above 90% for Dems to take the House. Less than 3% (my translation: 0%) to take the Senate. How many Dem Senate seats are we looking at - 46? 47? I reckon 47 at best yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Democrats will take the House, and by the looks of it (relatively) comfortably. Too bad they're doing so shitty in the Senate and Governor's races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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