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Fragile Bird

US Politics: Four Days and Counting

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It's funny about VA. They called it for Kaine immediately, but early voting tally, with less than 1000 votes counted have Stewart at 74%. I imagine that is one extremely heavily R area reporting in. But still a funny look if you don't pay close attention to the numbers.

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5 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Small signs that the Indiana Senate race is going bad...

Hard to know yet, truly. Donnelly isn't hitting his rural benchmarks compared to his 2012 win, which is definitely bad. But there's no urban or suburban votes in yet, so no way to know if he's beating his benchmarks in those counties.

Its bad that Democrats remain so weak in rural areas, but Donnelly is doing better than Clinton did in 2016, just not as good as he did in 2012. Which suggests at least some of the Trump rural voters are still open to other Democrats and is definitely a good sign for other, less red states. Unfortunately, unlike the House, Democrats need to be winning these dark states too this year.

Hopefully turnout is crazy high in Marion and Gary.

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Do not what sign this point in the Govenor election but this is enjoyable:

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Georgia Secretary of State and Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Kemp received a voter card that said “invalid” when he tried to vote on Election Day.

Kemp, who went to his home polling place in Winterville, Ga., on Tuesday afternoon, had to go back and get another card after unsuccessfully trying to vote, according to Atlanta's ABC affiliate, Channel 2 Action News.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/415346-kemps-voter-card-said-invalid-when-he-tried-to-vote

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Steve Kornacki needs to stop bumping coke between commercial breaks.

 

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17 minutes ago, DMC said:

I agree that Trump is unpredictable, especially if he gets desperate.  What I don't get is the end of this graph.  Why should Trump worry about the Senate?  They need 2/3s to convict.  That's not happening unless something drastically changes.  That's possible, particularly if the economy tanks, but it's not really expected at this juncture.

True. I just don't think he cares about the House at this point in time. Keeping the Senate for SC picks is what matters, but it wouldn't shock me if in the back of his mind he's thinking that only the Senate can remove him. He might not even know about the two thirds clause. Everyone around him says he doesn't pay attention to the details. 

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Certainly, it's not unthinkable.  My point was he was in a better position to confront the courts with unified government than he would be with divided government.  And he hasn't attacked the courts extensively.  Maybe rhetorically, but not substantively.

Yeah that's what I meant. He's been lashing out at them, but has not taken any real action. I think the thing to keep in mind though is that Trump is constantly probing and testing what he can get away with. He's nudging a lot incrementally. It's something to keep an eye on. 

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Yep.  I'm not denying the possibility Trump battles the courts.  I just hope it was clear that the only relation that has to do with the institutional constraint is that it would force him to do so.  Anyway, if he tries to confront the courts, I don't think he'd win.

Yeah I get that. What makes you think he would lose? Americans are so checked* out and his party won't push back against him. 

 

*I am the youngest person in an office of 20-30 people. Two women are my age, two guys are in their early 40's and everyone else is late 40's to early 60's.

Two of us have voted as of the start of the day.

Sigh

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Well it's time to head down to the HQ and crack em open. Hopefully it will be a night of happy drinking unlike last year when I downed an entire 750 of Jameson. I'm sure my friends up in MN CD 8 who are working on Radinovich are already deep into their tears and cups. They already know they've lost. 

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Kentucky-6, one of the earliest toss-up house races to have results in keeps swinging back and forth between Amy McGrath (D) and Andy Barr (R), with Barr having been the slight favorite going in.

Going to be a nerve-wracking night...

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

but it wouldn't shock me if in the back of his mind he's thinking that only the Senate can remove him. He might not even know about the two thirds clause. Everyone around him says he doesn't pay attention to the details. 

Excuse the lack of decorum, but he'd literally have to be retarded at this point to not understand it takes 2/3s of the Senate to convict.

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I think the thing to keep in mind though is that Trump is constantly probing and testing what he can get away with.

Right.  And it's important to keep in mind that that probing is usually..relaxed when a president goes from unified to divided government.

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Yeah I get that. What makes you think he would lose? Americans are so checked* out and his party won't push back against him.

If he confronts the courts?  Yeah, he'd lose politically.  What I've been trying to make clear is he doesn't necessarily have to confront the courts.  He can just let them guide what's acceptable and what's not.

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5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Well it's time to head down to the HQ and crack em open. Hopefully it will be a night of happy drinking unlike last year when I downed an entire 750 of Jameson. I'm sure my friends up in MN CD 8 who are working on Radinovich are already deep into their tears and cups. They already know they've lost. 

:cheers:

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On 11/3/2018 at 12:42 PM, DMC said:

 

Sorry DMC, can't clear this quote from an older post on my phone.

What network is the best coverage? CBSN is driving me nuts already

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Just now, karaddin said:

Sorry DMC, can't clear this quote from an older post on my phone.

What network is the best coverage? CBSN is driving me nuts already

No reason to apologize.  I watch MSNBC but that's just cuz I like some of the people there.  I know the people at CNN too, and more of them annoy me than do at MSNBC, as does their format.  Guess I know everyone at FNC too, but, yeah.

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On the CNN House map I haven't found any pink districts where the Dem is the incumbant. But there are a handful of light blue districts where the republican is the incumbant. It's early in the counting yet and only a small proportion of districts reporting, but it's a small sign. 

Is there any history of a left or right bias in early reporting areas? Here the tendancy is that small rural polling areas report sooner, and those areas tend to vote right, so as the counting goes on and urban areas that tend to vote left report in the count moves towards the left. But is that how it works in the USA?

Edited by The Anti-Targ

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First flip of the night has been projected, Wexton over Comstock in VA-10. Not really breaking news, this was probably the single most expected Democratic flip in the country, but still good to see.

Also, importantly Wexton is up 15% on Comstock with 54% of the vote in, which actually even better than the polls suggested. There is the caveat that we don't know for sure which votes are still out, and Stewart was such a disaster it probably further hurt Comstock, so I don't know if too much can be extrapolated from this. But hopefully this is a sign of further Democratic performance elsewhere.

On the other hand, urban/suburban votes are starting to come in for Indiana, and its sadly looking like it won't be enough. Donnelly has improved from his 2012 numbers but not as much as he fell in rural areas. Polls are still open in Gary though, gotta hope the crazy high turnout being reported in Chicago bled over to Gary as well.

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Alright, I'm headed off to a Democratic watch party here locally. I have worked on some of the campaigns and have a friend running for state Senate. I think I am more tapped into the polling sites than most people there, so I will be checking the internet on my phone while CNN or something will be playing on the big screen, but between 538 and the Guardian I should be set.

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24 minutes ago, DMC said:

No reason to apologize.  I watch MSNBC but that's just cuz I like some of the people there.  I know the people at CNN too, and more of them annoy me than do at MSNBC, as does their format.  Guess I know everyone at FNC too, but, yeah.

Hmm looks like MSNBC isn't available on YouTube and their site requires a login, NBC is on YouTube though and much better so far than CBSN

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