NBA 2018: Fear the Deer

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

First we got the splash brothers, and now we have the zombie brothers. Seriously though, this really sucks for the Wizards and Wall’s already bad contract just became a thousand times worse.     

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 hours ago, Relic said:

Tobias Harris and Boban to Philly. Yikes, Philly just got way better...

Butler and Embiid have already publicly complained about their lack of touches. This will only make it worse.      

[Maithanet]

30 minutes ago, Fez said:

Agreed. I've heard people argue that dynasties are good for sports, they make people more interested in watching (either to see them succeed again or to root for them to fail). But I think they are just boring (and with the relatively low Super Bowl ratings this year, I think some people may be feeling the same way about the Pats dynasty in the NFL). In individual sports, like golf, tennis, swimming, track, etc., I think a single dominant competitor can help the sport, because people are interested in just seeing this one person do awe-inspiring stuff that seems impossible for the human body. But in team sports, if there's not a legitimate rivalry for the top team, it's dull.

Yeah.  And the NFL has two advantages over the NBA in that regard.  The 53 man roster means that determining which team is "most talented" is often difficult, and getting a few stars doesn't actually guarantee much.  Secondly, fluky things can happen in the single elimination tournament.  In the NBA, the more talented team wins a best of seven tournament almost every time.  And the times they fail to, it's always to a team that is nearly as talented, but just a weird match-up for some reason.  Given that only five guys are on the court at the time and a single player can dominate the ball if desired, a team with two superb talents like Durant and Curry is almost unbeatable.  Add two more top 25-ish talents like Thompson and Green, plus role players like Iggy/Livingston willing to take a paycut, and all the drama of the 2017, 18 and 19 seasons was gone.  Anytime you can credibly argue that the top 5 players from the East are only marginally better than the Warriors (as you could last year), then you have a huge dynasty problem. 

[Relic]

3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Butler and Embiid have already publicly complained about their lack of touches. This will only make it worse.      

He's shooting 42 percent from 3s...

[briantw]

6 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I don't think a post-Durant GSW will be nearly as good as they were in 2015 and 2016.  Part of what made that team so good was their astonishing depth,with guys like Iguodala, Livingston, Bogut and Barnes making significant contributions on (comparatively) modest salaries.  Maybe they can find role players willing to take a salary cut for a chance at a ring, but I wouldn't count on it.  And while Iggy and Livingston are both still on the team, they're aging out of effectiveness (livingston will be almost 35 in the 2020 playoffs, Iggy will be 36). 

Also, Green is nowhere near as good as he was a few years ago.  

[briantw]

The East is gonna be crazy this postseason.  Really hope the Raptors do the rumored Lowry/Jonas for Conley/Gasol trade.  That would be fun.  If the Bucks find a way to get Anthony Davis, the second round would be a bloodbath with them, Boston, Philly, and Toronto.  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 hours ago, Relic said:

He's shooting 42 percent from 3s...

He'll help with their spacing, but it could cause chemistry issues. And boy did the Sixers give up a lot for a rental player. 

[Jaime L]

3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

First we got the splash brothers, and now we have the zombie brothers. Seriously though, this really sucks for the Wizards and Wall’s already bad contract just became a thousand times worse.     

They need to blow it up. This team as presently constituted, one that has sold out to compete this year can't win on the road and still loses regularly to the Hawks and Cavs the world. If everything breaks perfectly maybe they can sneak into the 8th seed and get immediately swept by the Bucks or Raptors. But this team isn't relevant and won't be next year without Wall.

And it has no means to get better. This team is maxed out the salary cap with this mediocre, veteran core and neither has any young assets left nor anything beyond their own draft picks. Not to mention Wall will likely never be the same guy again considering his age, a skillset based on athleticism and coming off an Achilles injury. Plus his contract is an absolute albatross for the next 4 seasons. He and Beal had a fun little run and now it's clearly over. 

This team literally has one player worth his contract - Bradley Beal. He's the one asset the Wizards still have and no point having him toil away on a 35 win team for the next 3 years, running him into the ground playing 38 mpg. 

To me the only rational move is firing Grunfeld, trading Beal for quality future assets, trade Porter/Ariza for whatever you can get and tanking the rest of this season to take advantage of the flatter lottery and aiming to be competitive again at around the time Wall's contract comes off the books 3-4 years from now.

But knowing the Wizards they're going to keep running it back and end up like the Pistons of the last 4-5 years. Always stuck in the 30-40 win range, the worst place to be in the NBA.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

12 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

They need to blow it up. This team as presently constituted, one that has sold out to compete this year can't win on the road and still loses regularly to the Hawks and Cavs the world. If everything breaks perfectly maybe they can sneak into the 8th seed and get immediately swept by the Bucks or Raptors. But this team isn't relevant and won't be next year without Wall.

And it has no means to get better. This team is maxed out the salary cap with this mediocre, veteran core and neither has any young assets left nor anything beyond their own draft picks. Not to mention Wall will likely never be the same guy again considering his age, a skillset based on athleticism and coming off an Achilles injury. Plus his contract is an absolute albatross for the next 4 seasons. He and Beal had a fun little run and now it's clearly over. 

This team literally has one player worth his contract - Bradley Beal. He's the one asset the Wizards still have and no point having him toil away on a 35 win team for the next 3 years, running him into the ground playing 38 mpg. 

To me the only rational move is firing Grunfeld, trading Beal for quality future assets, trade Porter/Ariza for whatever you can get and tanking the rest of this season to take advantage of the flatter lottery and aiming to be competitive again at around the time Wall's contract comes off the books 3-4 years from now.

But knowing the Wizards they're going to keep running it back and end up like the Pistons of the last 4-5 years. Always stuck in the 30-40 win range, the worst place to be in the NBA.

Yeah, there's no beating around it, your team is screwed and they will be bad for a while. I think your assessment was sober though. Beal has to be flipped for picks, and they need to be a few years out. You might be able to get two plus a young player from the Lakers, and honestly, he's be a great fit there. And yes, you have to strip down the roster, but I have no idea how you get around the Wall situation. He's taking up something like a third of your cap for the next four seasons and won't be available for one of them, and like you said, he will probably be a shell of himself. I think your best bet to turn this around is to have a fire sale tonight, tomorrow and in the offseason, tank hardcore next year and hope you can maybe buy Wall out after two years come off the books, but I have no idea how much you'd have to pay him nor do I know anything about your owner and if he'd do it. It's all really sad because I thought the Wizards were poised to be a dark horse in the East this year.

Also, does anyone believe John "In Da Club" Wall got injured in the way it's being reported? 

Anyways,  for you and Maith.

Perspective, @Relic

[KingintheNorth4]

The Bulls have traded Jabari Parker and Bobby Portis to the Wizards for Otto Porter. I feel that the Bulls are gonna miss Portis since he brought an edge to a team that sorely needed one.

[briantw]

1 hour ago, KingintheNorth4 said:

The Bulls have traded Jabari Parker and Bobby Portis to the Wizards for Otto Porter. I feel that the Bulls are gonna miss Portis since he brought an edge to a team that sorely needed one.

Honestly not sure what the Bulls are doing.  Feels like a "win now" trade for a team that shouldn't be trying to win now.

[Rhom]

Brian Windhorst said tonight that the Pelicans have no intent of trading Davis to the Lakers before the deadline and have been leaking details of discussions purposely to get in the heads of the young  Lakers and mess with team chemistry.

[Relic]

3 hours ago, Rhom said:

Brian Windhorst said tonight that the Pelicans have no intent of trading Davis to the Lakers before the deadline and have been leaking details of discussions purposely to get in the heads of the young  Lakers and mess with team chemistry.

Kind of makes sense. If the Lakers dont make the playoffs they have a better draft pick to offer. Problem is this next draft is pretty weak...

[James Arryn]

Latest Harden update: as of yesterday he leads the league in every single advanced stat designed to be comprehensive, PER, WS, BPM, RPM, VORP, VA, and EWA. Obviously at over 36/game (only below Wilt and fractionally below Jordan’s best season) all time, he’s having an historic season. Over the past 27 games he’s averaging almost 41 ppg to go along with 8/8/3.

But just one line for effect: Harden has already had more 40pt+ games this year than Dirk had in his entire HOF career.

 

[Relic]

10 hours ago, Jaime L said:

 

To me the only rational move is firing Grunfeld, trading Beal for quality future assets, trade Porter/Ariza for whatever you can get and tanking the rest of this season to take advantage of the flatter lottery and aiming to be competitive again at around the time Wall's contract comes off the books 3-4 years from now.

 

I agree, sadly. That Wall contract is a fucking nut buster, man. Sorry. 

Anyway, Porter gone, and your return was.....meh? I wish i could be as historically horrible at my job as Grunfeld has been and still be a millionaire with a great job. Jeses, what an absolutely atrocious GM. 

[Maithanet]

4 hours ago, Relic said:

I agree, sadly. That Wall contract is a fucking nut buster, man. Sorry. 

Anyway, Porter gone, and your return was.....meh? I wish i could be as historically horrible at my job as Grunfeld has been and still be a millionaire with a great job. Jeses, what an absolutely atrocious GM. 

Porter's contract was really bad too, so that limited his value a great deal.  He's a decent, but totally unexceptional starter, and he's paid $26, $27 and $28 million a year for the next three years.  I actually think this was about as good as they were going to get for him. 

Grunfeld is indeed horrible, and should absolutely be fired.  But this isn't the example you should hold up. 

15 hours ago, Jaime L said:

This team literally has one player worth his contract - Bradley Beal. He's the one asset the Wizards still have and no point having him toil away on a 35 win team for the next 3 years, running him into the ground playing 38 mpg. 

To me the only rational move is firing Grunfeld, trading Beal for quality future assets, trade Porter/Ariza for whatever you can get and tanking the rest of this season to take advantage of the flatter lottery and aiming to be competitive again at around the time Wall's contract comes off the books 3-4 years from now.

But knowing the Wizards they're going to keep running it back and end up like the Pistons of the last 4-5 years. Always stuck in the 30-40 win range, the worst place to be in the NBA.

The next couple years are going to be really painful for the Wizards.  Beal will fetch some assets if they trade him, but no huge haul, since he's only like the 20-30th best player in the league.  No way to get rid of Wall's contract. The only silver lining is that he might be so injured that he won't get in the way of tanking?  Is that what qualifies as silver lining for the Wizards these days?  At least the Caps are still good. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

34 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Porter's contract was really bad too, so that limited his value a great deal.  He's a decent, but totally unexceptional starter, and he's paid $26, $27 and $28 million a year for the next three years.  I actually think this was about as good as they were going to get for him. 

Grunfeld is indeed horrible, and should absolutely be fired.  But this isn't the example you should hold up. 

 

The next couple years are going to be really painful for the Wizards.  Beal will fetch some assets if they trade him, but no huge haul, since he's only like the 20-30th best player in the league.  No way to get rid of Wall's contract. The only silver lining is that he might be so injured that he won't get in the way of tanking?  Is that what qualifies as silver lining for the Wizards these days?  At least the Caps are still good. 

Given what the Clippers got for Harris, I think you could get a really good package for Beal, especially with his contract. He’s a really good player with two and a half years on his deal and it’s at fair market value. We’ll just have to wait and see if they do the smart thing and ship him out. They need to gut their roster and be terrible for two or three years, rebuild with young players and survive Wall’s contract. It won’t be a quick turnaround, but there’s no reason to think you’ll be in the wilderness for a decade like some franchises have been (looks at own team and sighs).

 

On an unrelated note, does anyone else understand what the Mavs are doing? They hit on an amazing young player, but they’ve now traded three first round picks and their second, third and fourth best players for an injured star (who will always be at risk for more injuries) and a bag of peanuts. Am I missing something?  

[Proudfeet]

5 hours ago, James Arryn said:

But just one line for effect: Harden has already had more 40pt+ games this year than Dirk had in his entire HOF career.

Eh, . Don't think that was what you were going for, but I just hate arbitrary stats without context. 

10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

On an unrelated note, does anyone else understand what the Mavs are doing? They hit on an amazing young player, but they’ve now traded three first round picks and their second, third and fourth best players for an injured star (who will always be at risk for more injuries) and a bag of peanuts. Am I missing something?  

Hit on injury and free agent lottery? I think they are basically going all in on a high risk high return strategy. Since the general culture is championship or bust, where even second place is viewed as a failure, it doesn't make much difference if they end up as a lottery team if they feel that their current ceiling is a first or second round exit.

That's how I would rationalise it anyway. Otherwise they might just have a more positive view on the upside of their current structure.

[Jaime L]

8 hours ago, Relic said:

I agree, sadly. That Wall contract is a fucking nut buster, man. Sorry. 

Anyway, Porter gone, and your return was.....meh? I wish i could be as historically horrible at my job as Grunfeld has been and still be a millionaire with a great job. Jeses, what an absolutely atrocious GM. 

Loser franchises stay losers because they bring in a mediocre GM like Grunfeld and they consider him golden because he engineered a couple mediocre playoff runs centered on Arenas/Butler and Wall/Beal when the previous atrocious GMs couldn't even do that. They don't realize how Grunfeld has spent 15 years destroying this team's chance to be great in an effort to preserve decent. 

Even now, not sure the point of the Porter trade. I guess they think Portis has untapped potential? But really seems to be a way to dump salaries as though some halfway decent FA will want to sign with this broken team next year. Hell this team could only land Ian Mahimni with prime Wall/Beal/Porter. Seems delusional AF.

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Given what the Clippers got for Harris, I think you could get a really good package for Beal, especially with his contract. He’s a really good player with two and a half years on his deal and it’s at fair market value. We’ll just have to wait and see if they do the smart thing and ship him out. They need to gut their roster and be terrible for two or three years, rebuild with young players and survive Wall’s contract. It won’t be a quick turnaround, but there’s no reason to think you’ll be in the wilderness for a decade like some franchises have been (looks at own team and sighs).

Yeah I think Beal would be pretty coveted if made available. His skillset (shooter/floor spacer, some playmaking ability, no glaring weaknesses) makes him an easy fit on almost any contender. Pretty much the ideal 3rd star on a championship team. Like if Philly had had a chance to get him instead of Butler as their third piece to compliment Embiid/Simmons think it would've been a no brainer for them, not because Beal is better than Butler, but because he'd fit in more seamlessly.

[Maithanet]

8 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

Even now, not sure the point of the Porter trade. I guess they think Portis has untapped potential? But really seems to be a way to dump salaries as though some halfway decent FA will want to sign with this broken team next year. Hell this team could only land Ian Mahimni with prime Wall/Beal/Porter. Seems delusional AF.

I think it was just to dump salary.  Right now the Wizards are the absolute worst kind of NBA teams - over the luxury tax and still terrible.  I think the plan for the next couple of years is to be terrible, so you might as well be cheap too. 

Quote

Yeah I think Beal would be pretty coveted if made available. His skillset (shooter/floor spacer, some playmaking ability, no glaring weaknesses) makes him an easy fit on almost any contender. Pretty much the ideal 3rd star on a championship team. Like if Philly had had a chance to get him instead of Butler as their third piece to compliment Embiid/Simmons think it would've been a no brainer for them, not because Beal is better than Butler, but because he'd fit in more seamlessly. 

Zombies get along with everyone.