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Jaime L

NBA 2018: Fear the Deer

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8 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

I’m honestly confused. What context am I missing?

It seems a pretty linear point to me...an NBA network show put up a list of great scorers whose career games of 40 points or more were fewer than Harden’s put up in this ~2/3rds of a season alone. I just chose to mention Dirk because I think of him as primarily a great scorer. The only point is about how historic what Harden’s doing is...I’m really not sure what context could even be added. If I’d picked a HOFer who was more like a defensive guy or w/e, like a Pippen or pure passer or w/e maybe, but Dirk was if anything much more one dimensional than Harden is, and if it’s efficiency Dirk’s (by a fair margin) highest TS% was .612. Harden’s career TS% is .610, and this year sits at .624...so....again, confused. 

You're comparing stats in absolute terms which is not meaningful. TS is relative, so its a good comparison. Much as I dislike it, Harden's ability to get free throws is still a skill. Points per game on the other hand, is absolute and is shit for comparison. You're missing out on their team situations. Harden has a usage rate of almost 40% this year. Dirk has never hit 30%. Pace of the game is increasing and so on. Its not like for like. Dirk doesn't have to score as his teammates do. Harden is the primary ball handler for his team. Is Dirk? There are so many factors in play before scoring ability.

40 point games is arbitrary. Its not as useful as career average where I'm sure Harden compares favourably as well. Its an interesting stat, but you really have to wonder how meaningful it is. It gets especially annoying when people point out x pts x blocks x assists x rebounds since y player. Even though I don't like stats like triple doubles as well, at least I can see the logic. Most of those comparisons are just because they are there. There is no link. 

Same thing for the winning percentage of Charlotte and New Orleans since that AD draft. Rubbish apples to oranges comparison. I don't even know what I'm replying to anymore honestly. Just so annoyed. :ack:

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1 hour ago, KingintheNorth4 said:

Kyrie and Lebron going back and forth in the 4th has been fun to watch.

It was surprisingly hurtful that Rondo sank the game winner...

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15 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

It was surprisingly hurtful...

That's what the guy he shanked said too

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IMO the most interesting storyline this year is who will win the Eastern Conference.  The East has four legit teams that all could possibly put things together and win the conference.  And three of those teams just made "win now" trades at the deadline.  I'm not even totally sure who I favor to come out of the East.  The Sixers have the most talent, but no bench.  The Raptors have the best player and the best defense.  The Bucks have the best shooting.  The Celtics have the best coaching and the best depth.  The second round and third round of the East playoffs is going to be must see television.

In contrast the west has...Golden State.  The Rockets are worse than last year.  OKC has great defense and two stars, but it's clearly not enough.  Everybody else is just a joke (when it comes to beating the Warriors).

And sure, whoever emerges from the East is probably going to be too battered to make the Finals terribly interesting, but this is a good consolation prize after Durant ruined the league.

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26 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

And sure, whoever emerges from the East is probably going to be too battered to make the Finals terribly interesting, 

Well, you can think of it more positively. The winner of the East would be sharpened and the Warriors will be rusty from rest. It might not be the most realistic scenario, but one could dream right? 

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I can’t agree. This year’s East teams have a legit chance verse the Warriors. The Warriors don’t have a great bench either and one of their core four is a shell of himself. Klay is also having an up and down year. I don’t think the Raptors can beat the Warriors, but I give the other three teams a punchers chance, especially the Bucks.  

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Those top four teams make the East more interesting than anytime I can remember in a long time.  Probably since Jordan retired (for the second time).

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

I can’t agree. This year’s East teams have a legit chance verse the Warriors. The Warriors don’t have a great bench either and one of their core four is a shell of himself. Klay is also having an up and down year. I don’t think the Raptors can beat the Warriors, but I give the other three teams a punchers chance, especially the Bucks.  

We'll see.  I mean, "puncher's chance" isn't much of a chance.  If GSW is reasonably healthy, I'd give them at least 80% to win. 

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21 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Idk if you're into soccer or not, but for a long time now I've been thinking that European soccer has perfected the sports format. The one thing I'm iffy on is the lack of a draft and cap, because it creates massive power imbalances, but everything else is great. Relegation, in particular is an excellent concept. I can't see how it can be introduced into American sports leagues, but I've been wondering for a while if we couldn't create a system to relegate bad owners. Idk how you'd do it nor do I know what a good standard would be, but I'm sick and tired of having a terrible owner who does idiotic things. There needs to be a way to get these people up and out of here if it becomes abundantly clear that they are not fit to run an organization.

I don't follow soccer closely but I'm aware of relegation and wish we had it here. Forgot who pointed out the European societies are socialist but their sports leagues are run capitalist whereas America is capitalist but all sports leagues are run socialist.  Our leagues give so many benefits to awful teams (basically those that are too incompetent or cheaply run to be successful), specifically high draft picks and revenue sharing.  The biggest issue is teams have way too many incentives to tank. And like you said there's no ramifications for a team being terrible for decades. I mean look at the Knicks, probably the worst team in the last two decades, and they're the most valuable franchise in the NBA despite themselves. 

And tanking is the worst in the NBA where in a lot of cases fans prefer missing the playoffs over barely making it. Would love there to be a relegation system that would force, say, the Knicks to play hard the entire way or risk being replaced by Des Moines. Also like that it would punish Dolan's incompetence. Good luck making money hand over fist while being awful in some 2nd tier basketball league. 

The main thing I'm curious about though is what these European leagues have in place of the draft. What mechanism exists to give hope to bad teams in a league over there? Like if Zion were a soccer player, how is it determined who gets him? Is it just who bids the most? 

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1 hour ago, Jaime L said:

 

The main thing I'm curious about though is what these European leagues have in place of the draft. What mechanism exists to give hope to bad teams in a league over there? Like if Zion were a soccer player, how is it determined who gets him? Is it just who bids the most? 

He would probably already have been attached to a club for 8 years. Players are generally developed through youth systems. 

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@Jaime L

As BFC said, they move up through teams youth systems. For example, I believe FC Barcelona brought Messi from Argentina to Spain when he was like 12 or 13, and since then he's moved up the ranks of their youth academies to becoming the greatest player the team has ever had. This gives the rich teams a huge advantage, so the other teams have two ways to climb, they can do an excellent job at scouting young talent and make money when the players transfer so they can slowly grow, or they can be bought by a shady Russian oligarch who is willing to dump tons of cash into the program (go Chelsea! ). 

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We need a new thread, but all the titles I came up with were super hacky. 

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18 hours ago, Maithanet said:

IMO the most interesting storyline this year is who will win the Eastern Conference.  The East has four legit teams that all could possibly put things together and win the conference.  And three of those teams just made "win now" trades at the deadline.  I'm not even totally sure who I favor to come out of the East.  The Sixers have the most talent, but no bench.  The Raptors have the best player and the best defense.  The Bucks have the best shooting.  The Celtics have the best coaching and the best depth.  The second round and third round of the East playoffs is going to be must see television.

In contrast the west has...Golden State.  The Rockets are worse than last year.  OKC has great defense and two stars, but it's clearly not enough.  Everybody else is just a joke (when it comes to beating the Warriors).

And sure, whoever emerges from the East is probably going to be too battered to make the Finals terribly interesting, but this is a good consolation prize after Durant ruined the league.

Bro, Kawhi has absolutely not better than Giannis this year. Seriously. Also, the Bucks' depth is incredible, especially with the addition of Mirotic. 

I'm sure my homerism is coming out, but I think the Bucks are the clear favorites (although it is still anyone's game - any of the four teams on top could go to the finals), and I've seen that take very frequently as of late, even from many Raptors fans. The Bucks have a historically great +9.9 net rating, the best record in the NBA (including a successful record against Western Conference teams), a great defense, an MVP front-runner superstar with floor spacers and a deep bench, and a fantastic coach. 

Also, do the Bucks have the best shooting? As a fan that has watched most of their games this year, that seems counter intuitive to me (it may be backed up by stats, I'm just genuinely curious). They've been super streaky with their 3pt shooting, either tending to dominate or go completely cold, and IIRC they have the most points scored in the paint in the league. Seems like half their points come from drives by Giannis, Bledsoe, or Brogdon. 

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On 2/8/2019 at 4:31 PM, Maithanet said:

IMO the most interesting storyline this year is who will win the Eastern Conference.  The East has four legit teams that all could possibly put things together and win the conference.  And three of those teams just made "win now" trades at the deadline.  I'm not even totally sure who I favor to come out of the East.  The Sixers have the most talent, but no bench.  The Raptors have the best player and the best defense.  

The Bucks have the best defense in the league this season and Giannis has been easily the best player in the conference. 

The Bucks have also been blowing out opponents all season, their net rating is one of the best in many years. 

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2 hours ago, David Selig said:

The Bucks have also been blowing out opponents all season, their net rating is one of the best in many years. 

Then why'd they lose to my Magic yesterday?  By 20!  Was counting on that loss.

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3 hours ago, DMC said:

Then why'd they lose to my Magic yesterday?  By 20!  Was counting on that loss.

Because the team does not work without Giannis.

Bucks also played 9 games in 15 days. 

Edited by Tinker

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On 2/9/2019 at 4:23 AM, IamMe90 said:

Bro, Kawhi has absolutely not better than Giannis this year. Seriously. Also, the Bucks' depth is incredible, especially with the addition of Mirotic. 

I'm sure my homerism is coming out, but I think the Bucks are the clear favorites

 

16 hours ago, David Selig said:

The Bucks have the best defense in the league this season and Giannis has been easily the best player in the conference. 

The Bucks have also been blowing out opponents all season, their net rating is one of the best in many years. 

It's quite possible I'm underrating the Bucks, I've seen only one game of them this year, and in it Giannis played well, but not exceptional.  The primary reason I'm rating Kawhi ahead of him is just the old adage that the NBA playoffs is cruel to the young, and Leonard has far more experience with long playoff runs than Giannis.  If it comes down to a Toronto vs Milwaukee ECF*, I expect Leonard will shine.  Even after the crap he pulled in San Antonio, I remain a big fan of Leonard's game. 

* This has to be a nightmare scenario for the NBA.  Possibly the smallest market NBA team vs a team from Canada?  Yikes.  And yet, as a basketball fan, that is exactly what I'm rooting for. 

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Went to the Knicks game on Saturday night and watched the best 5 minutes of Knicks basketball I've seen in years. Too bad what followed was normal Knicks basketball but man, I saw a glimpse and it was glorious. Also, Dennis Smith Jr is fun to watch and should attack every time he gets the ball.

Edited by Mexal

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1 hour ago, Mexal said:

Went to the Knicks game on Saturday night and watched the best 5 minutes of Knicks basketball I've seen in years. Too bad what followed was normal Knicks basketball but man, I saw a glimpse and it was glorious. Also, Dennis Smith Jr is fun to watch and should attack every time he gets the ball.

Told you Knicks fans not to freak out over the trade. You might end up with the better player and you got assets to chase AD with plus you have to max slots open.

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5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Told you Knicks fans not to freak out over the trade. You might end up with the better player and you got assets to chase AD with plus you have to max slots open.

I mean, the success of the trade still rests on what they do in trade/FA/draft. Still, Dennis Smith Jr is fun to watch.

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