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Jaime L

NBA 2018: Fear the Deer

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A big concern for Philly is the fact that Markelle Fultz might be the next Anthony Bennett.

His shooting so far has still been bad after they thought they made improvements throughout summer. Butler's arrival has pushed him to the bench, which analysts seem to think is better for him anyway.

But this guy has to be good, he is their no.1 pick, they passed on Tatum to get him so at the least he has to be a good rotation player. I hope for him and the Sixers that he finds his footing.

I am likewise on and off about Lonzo Ball. He has decent nights and off nights, hard to decide what I think of him. 

On 11/16/2018 at 11:44 AM, BigFatCoward said:

Someone has to explain to me the Butler trade. He doesn't get the team past the warriors (he probably doesn't even get them to the finals), they had to give up decent pieces to do it, there is no guarantee he stays, and if he does it will cost a fortune, he is generally perceived to be an arsehole, and he just about scrapes into the top 5 players available next off season, and because of his age the last few years of his contract are likely to be massively overpaid. How does this make sense for Philly?

Totally see where you're coming from. Jaime's given the reasons though.

His character would be my biggest concern. Now, does he get them past the Warriors? Maybe not this year, but who knows what happens in the years to come ( as an aside I do not think the Sixers are on the verge of beating the Warriors anyway and their goal is probably to first see if they can come out of the East, which I deem very questionable this season)

Also, signing him now means he could be more likely to re-sign. Better players are possily not available and as you see with the Rockets, star power is what matters, and getting that third star is considered very important. On paper they do have a very good line-up now. Furthermore, I liked both Saric and Covington ( and thus say the T-Wolves got a good deal, T-Wolves 3 straight wins now by the way) but the Sixers can replace players of their calibre. And if in the unlikely scenario that Leonard suddenly develops an appetite for coming to the Sixers next summer, then they sign him and don't re-sign Butler.

Edited by Calibandar

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On 11/16/2018 at 11:29 PM, Triskele said:

I respect that criteria on ways to evaluate a #1 pick.  I suppose that is up to debate.

I think the reason that gravitated I to Bennett was for the reasons stated by @Maithanet.  

With a Russell or an Oden you can see why they were chosen #1.  And both of them at least had games where they looked good.  Did Bennett have a good NBA game ever?  

I mean, he never had a "#1 pick overall" kinda good game, but he did have a few good games.  

19 points on 9 shots off the bench for Cleveland vs Kings

20 points on 14 shots off the bench for Minnesota vs Spurs

15 points on 10 shots, plus 8 rebounds for Cleveland vs Pelicans

But yeah, those are very much "valuable role player" kinda games, which is pretty embarrassing since those are his best ever games. 

 

However, I would like to note that Jamarcus Russell had zero good games in either 2007 or 2009, and maybe two in 2008.  I mean, he's not the worst NFL quarterback this century, that's Nathan Peterman, followed by Jimmy Clausen.  But he's still far worse than a replacement level backup quarterback, let alone a starter.  

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It is a bit funny that Klay Thompson said the whole row with Draymond and KD would just blow over with some good wins in the next few games and they've since taken loss after loss. Doncic did them in last night.

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I know he hasn't been the #1 pick, but no debate about draft busts is complete without mentioning Darko Milicic.

The guy was drafted right after LeBron, and before Anthony, Wade and Bosh and didn't do anything noteworthy during his NBA career. Sure, he's won the ring with Detroit but he didn't do much in the process. Definitely didn't perform at #2 draft pick level.

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3 hours ago, baxus said:

I know he hasn't been the #1 pick, but no debate about draft busts is complete without mentioning Darko Milicic.

The guy was drafted right after LeBron, and before Anthony, Wade and Bosh and didn't do anything noteworthy during his NBA career. Sure, he's won the ring with Detroit but he didn't do much in the process. Definitely didn't perform at #2 draft pick level.

Darko was at least a serviceable player at times. 

Hasheem Thabeet was taken 2nd overall ahead of James Harden and Steph Curry in 2009. The Grizzlies will never live that down. 

Edited by Ferrum Aeternum

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4 hours ago, baxus said:

I know he hasn't been the #1 pick, but no debate about draft busts is complete without mentioning Darko Milicic.

The guy was drafted right after LeBron, and before Anthony, Wade and Bosh and didn't do anything noteworthy during his NBA career. Sure, he's won the ring with Detroit but he didn't do much in the process. Definitely didn't perform at #2 draft pick level.

The recent history of #2 picks in the NBA is actually pretty perilous.  Since 2000, there's been Stromile Swift, and then four straight years of Thabeet, Evan Turner, Derrick Williams, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.  None of them have had especially better careers than Darko.  There's also Michael Beasley and Marvin Williams who, while able to carve out a role as solid rotational players eventually, were fairly huge disappointments as well.  Finally, there's also the unfortunate example of Jay Williams, who I think would've been a great pro.

I think it's fair to say Darko was a historically bad pick for Detroit, given the players selected immediately after.  But it's hard to say he's anymore than simply one in a rather large group of draft busts when it comes to the #2 pick.

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

The recent history of #2 picks in the NBA is actually pretty perilous.  Since 2000, there's been Stromile Swift, and then four straight years of Thabeet, Evan Turner, Derrick Williams, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.  None of them have had especially better careers than Darko.  There's also Michael Beasley and Marvin Williams who, while able to carve out a role as solid rotational players eventually, were fairly huge disappointments as well.  Finally, there's also the unfortunate example of Jay Williams, who I think would've been a great pro.

I think it's fair to say Darko was a historically bad pick for Detroit, given the players selected immediately after.  But it's hard to say he's anymore than simply one in a rather large group of draft busts when it comes to the #2 pick.

Don't forget Jabari Parker

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I think it's premature to close the book on Parker as of yet, and besides that's much more due to injuries.

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5 minutes ago, DMC said:

I think it's premature to close the book on Parker as of yet, and besides that's much more due to injuries.

 

5 minutes ago, DMC said:

I think it's premature to close the book on Parker as of yet, and besides that's much more due to injuries.

He is clueless on defense and does not care. He also quit on the Bucks in the playoffs last year. 

Edited by Tinker

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5 minutes ago, DMC said:

I think it's fair to say Darko was a historically bad pick for Detroit, given the players selected immediately after.  But it's hard to say he's anymore than simply one in a rather large group of draft busts when it comes to the #2 pick.

What was particularly inexplicable about the Detroit pick was that team was really good.  They won the national championship the following year, and lost it in seven games to the Spurs the year after that.  With that in mind, it's hard to believe that they wouldn't take a more polished player that could contribute right away, rather than betting on the (overrated) potential of Darko.  If they had taken Carmelo, he could have come off the bench and provided valuable scoring right away (although his defensive shortcomings would not have gone over well on that team).  Wade or Bosh would have been even better picks, since they are both capable defenders.  If they'd taken either one, they probably prolong the viability of Detroit's core, just like Rondo's emergence allowed the Celtics Big 3 to remain relevant through 2012. 

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8 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

What was particularly inexplicable about the Detroit pick was that team was really good.  They won the national championship the following year, and lost it in seven games to the Spurs the year after that.  With that in mind, it's hard to believe that they wouldn't take a more polished player that could contribute right away, rather than betting on the (overrated) potential of Darko.  If they had taken Carmelo, he could have come off the bench and provided valuable scoring right away (although his defensive shortcomings would not have gone over well on that team).  Wade or Bosh would have been even better picks, since they are both capable defenders.  If they'd taken either one, they probably prolong the viability of Detroit's core, just like Rondo's emergence allowed the Celtics Big 3 to remain relevant through 2012. 

Who calls the Finals the national championship? 

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7 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

With that in mind, it's hard to believe that they wouldn't take a more polished player that could contribute right away, rather than betting on the (overrated) potential of Darko.

Well, I actually have a pretty good memory of this time period for some reason (which is quite odd for me), and it was clear if they didn't pick Darko there was immense pressure to pick Carmelo.  Problem there was there top three scorers were Hamilton, Billups, and Prince.  They didn't have much of a need for a 3, but they good use a scoring big man to pair with Ben Wallace.  Remember at the time of the draft they did not have Rasheed Wallace.  So, I think as a competing team the Pistons opted for the luxury of drafting based on need - which usually doesn't work out too well.  Anyway, everyone would have thought they were crazy at the time if they drafted Bosh or Wade.  People forget that there were many people that still have jobs promoting Darko over LeBron.

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12 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Who calls the Finals the national championship? 

??  Me?  Is there anything about national championship that is unclear? 

 

6 minutes ago, DMC said:

Well, I actually have a pretty good memory of this time period for some reason (which is quite odd for me), and it was clear if they didn't pick Darko there was immense pressure to pick Carmelo.  Problem there was there top three scorers were Hamilton, Billups, and Prince.  They didn't have much of a need for a 3, but they good use a scoring big man to pair with Ben Wallace.  Remember at the time of the draft they did not have Rasheed Wallace.  So, I think as a competing team the Pistons opted for the luxury of drafting based on need - which usually doesn't work out too well.  Anyway, everyone would have thought they were crazy at the time if they drafted Bosh or Wade.  People forget that there were many people that still have jobs promoting Darko over LeBron.

I agree that Carmelo isn't a great fit on the Pistons, although obviously he'd be better than Darko, since he is a good player and Darko is not.  It's just really weird that in the best draft this century that the #2 pick was a guy who didn't even have a great track record internationally, and was largely evaluated based on his athletic potential.  And on top of that, he wasn't even that great an athlete.  His fitness was terrible. 

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16 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

And on top of that, he wasn't even that great an athlete.  His fitness was terrible. 

He had a cup of coffee with the Magic, and I remember even then (when he was already derided bust) the talent and potential there was apparent.  He wasn't a great athlete, no, but he was good enough (at least for that era), and he had skills coming out the ass for a big man.  His problem was clearly an effort/mental thing.  When he retired he basically admitted he didn't really like playing basketball.  Kinda respect that given he could have had a few more years getting million dollar contracts.

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7 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

??  Me?  Is there anything about national championship that is unclear? 

 

I agree that Carmelo isn't a great fit on the Pistons, although obviously he'd be better than Darko, since he is a good player and Darko is not.  It's just really weird that in the best draft this century that the #2 pick was a guy who didn't even have a great track record internationally, and was largely evaluated based on his athletic potential.  And on top of that, he wasn't even that great an athlete.  His fitness was terrible. 

I know what it means. I just can’t recall anyone ever call the NBA champions national champions.

Anyways, Darko is a perfect example of what I was talking about last week. He’s not the worst pick ever from a talent and production standpoint, but he’s wedge between 4 Hall of Famers with two of them being all time greats. People wouldn’t hate on him nearly as much if he had gone second in an average or weak draft class.

I also think it’s funny that people always say the Pistons should have taken Melo. In hindsight they should have actually taken Wade or even Bosh, before Darko, not Melo.

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

I know what it means. I just can’t recall anyone ever call the NBA champions national champions.

Anyways, Darko is a perfect example of what I was talking about last week. He’s not the worst pick ever from a talent and production standpoint, but he’s wedge between 4 Hall of Famers with two of them being all time greats. People wouldn’t hate on him nearly as much if he had gone second in an average or weak draft class.

I also think it’s funny that people always say the Pistons should have taken Melo. In hindsight they should have actually taken Wade or even Bosh, before Darko, not Melo.

The Pistons were never going to take Wade.  Ever.  They had Chauncey and Rip and Tayshaun Prince (who seemed like he was going to be good)  They were very obviously going for a big man.  They decided to go for potential because they already had Ben Wallace and Rasheed.  It didn't work.  It wasn't a bad pick and is only made so by hindsight as they should have taken Bosh.

Edited by Slurktan

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41 minutes ago, Slurktan said:

They were very obviously going for a big man.  They decided to go for potential because they already had Ben Wallace and Rasheed.  It didn't work.  It wasn't a bad pick and is only made so by hindsight as they should have taken Bosh.

Again, they did not have Rasheed when they picked Darko (and would not until the following February).  But yes, they were looking for a big man -- and if they picked Bosh over Darko the vast majority of analysts would have said they made a huge mistake in real time.

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

Again, they did not have Rasheed when they picked Darko (and would not until the following February).  But yes, they were looking for a big man -- and if they picked Bosh over Darko the vast majority of analysts would have said they made a huge mistake in real time.

Right, I mean, Darko is clearly in the Jamarcus Russell category of bad picks where "conventional wisdom was totally wrong about this guy".  But from a strategy perspective it is hard to believe a team like Detroit which was very close to contending would want a high ceiling development pick like Darko over someone who's game was more developed, like Melo, Wade or Bosh. 

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Bosh wasn't considered very developed at the time.  Wade was, but had very little hype behind him.  It was gonna be Darko or Melo.

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26 minutes ago, DMC said:

Bosh wasn't considered very developed at the time.  Wade was, but had very little hype behind him.  It was gonna be Darko or Melo.

If I recall, wasn't Melo even in the conversation for first overall?  It probably would have been more of a conversation if a team other than Cleveland (where LeBron was the hometown hero) had the pick, but still.  I believe Darko rose becuase he was just slaughtering his pre-draft workouts.  I remember reading a story about Dumars and a bunch of Pistons front office and coaching staff watching an impromptu workout the night of the draft lottery and I think that's what swayed them into drafting him over Melo.

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