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US Politics: In Through the Out Door


DMC

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2 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Again, hacking theory: because they found evidence of tampering, and are not sure about the actual validity of the votes. 

Maybe - I like the idea that they're not reporting until everyone is out of the lines. Still, seems hinky. 

Sorry, I didn't catch that, just came to this thread. It's not altogether implausible, but I think the latter idea is more likely at this point. 

And, man. 4 times I've voted to get Walker out of here, and 4 times I will have failed. It is so disheartening... :(

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9 minutes ago, IamMe90 said:

Sorry, I didn't catch that, just came to this thread. It's not altogether implausible, but I think the latter idea is more likely at this point. 

And, man. 4 times I've voted to get Walker out of here, and 4 times I will have failed. It is so disheartening... :(

The fact Wisconsin voters continue to reward him for his incompetence is beyond me. Shit keeps getting worse and he keeps his job term after term.

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In local news, Washington passed police accountability that brings them to about 1970 levels (from before, where  they had literally the worst accountability in the nation), looks like they rejected big soda and can tax soda across the state, and some scary gun reform like you have to be 21 to buy an AR-15.

But Washington, those fucking hippie techies, couldn't fucking pass the carbon tax. So no, the environment and the entire fate of the world is STILL NOT IMPORTANT ENOUGH even in fucking Pacific Northwest, where half of the fuckers drive teslas while listening to NPR. 

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The Dems are so fucking spineless. Obama gets elected and Mitch McConnell announces that his #1 priority is to make Obama a one-term president. That failed, but what followed was 6 years of GOP obstruction which was followed by 2 years of strongarming. The Dems finally take back the House. And what's their first agenda? Bipartisanship.

Get fucked.

Pelosi is a fucking disgrace and a weak sack of shit.

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7 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

In local news, Washington passed police accountability that brings them to about 1970 levels (from before, where  they had literally the worst accountability in the nation), looks like they rejected big soda and can tax soda across the state, and some scary gun reform like you have to be 21 to buy an AR-15.

But Washington, those fucking hippie techies, couldn't fucking pass the carbon tax. So no, the environment and the entire fate of the world is STILL NOT IMPORTANT ENOUGH even in fucking Pacific Northwest, where half of the fuckers drive teslas while listening to NPR. 

Hey, some of us thought it was a really good idea...

Seems like the Dems really need to pick up AZ, because if they lose too much more of the senate, it will be out of reach in 2020

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So... even though the Dems have taken the House and have flipped a number of gubernatorial races and have taken some state legislators, the Republicans really didn't do that bad overall. They still hold the Senate, even more so than before, and pretty much can do whatever they want there. So, this doesn't seem like much of a repudiation of Trump, does it? I see the Republicans doubling down on Trumpism and their toxic behavior even more than before.

Sooo... where does that leave the Democrats? Where do they go from here and what do they take away from this? If this is the absolute best they can do against a Presidential administration that is both fairly unpopular and has been wracked by scandal after scandal and chaotic incompetence, then... now what?

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Just now, GrimTuesday said:

Hey, some of us thought it was a really good idea...

 Seems like the Dems really need to pick up AZ, because if they lose too much more of the senate, it will be out of reach in 2020

King County voted for it, just not the rest of the inbred fucksticks. Fuck them. And King was only 57% on it. Gah. GAH. 

And even more fuckery - apparently we are voting to never allow soda taxes in the rest of the state too. 

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7 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

King County voted for it, just not the rest of the inbred fucksticks. Fuck them. And King was only 57% on it. Gah. GAH. 

And even more fuckery - apparently we are voting to never allow soda taxes in the rest of the state too. 

Yeah, it is pretty fucking shameful. I'm interested to see how it did down here in Clark County. I bet it didn't even get 40%.

Look like Herrera Beutler keeps her seat, which isn't surprising given the incumbent advantage. One bright side is that her victory margin was cut from 24% to ~5%.

Just wanted to throw this out there, is there any way that a Kemp victory can be seen as legitimate? The guy actively and transparently suppressed the vote.

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Okay, apologies to @DMC because this will REALLY piss him off, but here's my prediction for how the House thing is going to go.

A lot of Democrats, led likely by Maxine Waters, will start investigating like crazy. This will produce some sexy news bits for a bit, but it will likely not get anything so substantive that it causes major issues (an aside: what would actually cause issues to Trump, given that his supporters would vote for him knowing he lies all the time). But the news cycles will likely be dominated by various Dem House committee leaders doing subpoenas and getting docs and having press conferences, and Trump continuing to counterattack against it. This will be flashy. But it won't result in a lot of change.

What it will do, however, is something psychologists and social scientists know - which is that it'll cause the folks who like authority to gather round their leader and their organization even more. I can't find the article, but basically the gist was that most conservatives don't care about voting as their identity that much usually - except when they feel their identity is under attack, and then they get extra angry about it. My suspicion is that while it won't be impeachment, it's going to act almost precisely like what it did for Clinton - an entirely partisan attack against Trump that doesn't end up with any real results or actions. 

Basically, unless you have Republicans leading this kind of charge, you're not going to get anywhere with this sort of truth-based attack - because Republicans at this point are entirely uncaring about objective truth. They care entirely about whatever Trump and Fox spin and are talking about and what they're saying. And there are enough independent-leaning Republicans who will gather around their leader and plug their nose and vote for Trump because the alternative is voting for someone who calls them horrible fascists and the like, so what choice do they have?

I haven't figured out how to fight this or what a better strategy would be here. As far as I can tell the only way to cause Trump to lose face is to show him as a failure, and have his ideas actually hurt people. The healthcare appears to be a big deal there, because people really saw what they might lose and are much more energized, regardless of what he says. I'm not sure Trump's taxes have the same appeal. 

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I think this is right but I believe both Beto oRourke and bill nelson are the Very first two people to earn four million votes in a midterm election and Lose a senate seat. I believe this will make bill Nelson the first incumbent senator  to lose while earning over 4 million votes.

o Rourke got 300,000 more voters than Kirsten gillibrand.

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Trump's taxes won't do shit, even if all they amount to is an old, greasy napkin with the words "I never paid no taxes, also I totally colluded with Russia! Suck it America!" written in crayon. His base won't care, Republican lawmakers won't care, and most non-insane conservatives will probably find a way to rationalize it away.

It'll take something truly calamitous to peel away much of his support, like a faltering economy, and even then I wouldn't be so sure.

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trump’s full bore racism campaign the last couple weeks drove republican turnout to unprecedented levels. Every republican for every local state and federal office in 2020 will be running a full bore blatant racism campaign: it is a win win, it increases base turnout and it increases their share of the white vote.

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Bold 2020 prediction: Dems hold in the House, take the Senate and win the Presidency because there will absolutely be a recession before or during 2020. The only thing keeping Trump's numbers from cratering right now is the economy, and this recovery is getting extremely long in the tooth. But, Dems lose House or Senate in 2022 because, like usual, they're left fixing the economy that the Republicans fucked up.

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1 hour ago, IamMe90 said:

Sorry, I didn't catch that, just came to this thread. It's not altogether implausible, but I think the latter idea is more likely at this point. 

And, man. 4 times I've voted to get Walker out of here, and 4 times I will have failed. It is so disheartening... :(

Walker hasn't won yet.  As of a few minutes ago Evers was up by about 100 votes with large parts of Milwaukee, a Dem stronghold, yet to report.   Very strong chance of a recount,  who ever finishes on top after today.

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