US Politics: In Through the Out Door

[Fez]

Scot, this one's for you:

Quote

 

Call it the sleeper issue of the 2018 midterm elections: Daylight Saving Time.

With more than 33 percent of precincts reporting at 10:30 p.m. Tuesday, Californians were overwhelmingly approving Proposition 7, a measure that proponents said could set the stage for the Golden State to keep daylight saving time year round – and never have to make the November "fall back." 

Despite having no money spent on the campaign, the measure was passing with 61.8 percent of voters saying "yes" – one of the largest victory margins among California's 2018 ballot propositions.

 

Its not settled yet, the state legislature needs to act as well. But its a start.

Lots of good ballot initiatives passed actually, all across the country.

[Toth]

42 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I completely agree. The polarization in the US has become deeper, and with it all kinds of appalling behavior has been given permission to let loose. Republicans are calling the Senate vote the only important vote and a great victory for Trump.

This just confirms my decision to not set foot in the US anytime soon, if ever. I may have to travel through the US to get somewhere, but my days of attending WorldCons in the States, for example, are probably gone forever. Americans have revealed themselves and it’s not a pretty sight.

Aye. While it might be true that the coastal areas are still comparably sane, I have no intention of visiting either. Actually I never had since two years ago...

41 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Of course, more people are against the bullshit in America, including pretty much every urban environment that a WorldCon will be hosted in. More women and minorities will be in Congress now then ever in history. But you're right, Americans have revealed themselves. Reality is globalization, while good for a large group, has allowed hatred to flourish and what is happening in the US is happening elsewhere and it will only get worse. See Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, etc.

I get your point, but I'm thinking globalization isn't really the issue here. The US always had these people in their rural areas, it's just that they have become more vocal and the system more rigged now (come on, the voter turn-out is still just 50% despite extremely high commitment on both sides? This is ridiculous for a modern democracy!)

I still remember stories of exchange students from my schools who happened to spend a year in the American midwest. Each and every one of them came back utterly horrified. At first they were amused about how endearingly stupid their guest family was, but then they looked more and more like a cult and they didn't dare say anything to contradict their world view lest their guest family might turn hostile (and in some of these stories they did). And this was during the Bush era and before. So these nutjobs didn't just pop up out of nowhere.

Yes, damaging influence of economic inequality coupled with a sense of entitlement and demagoguery against migrants and refugees has given a rise to the far-right everywhere. The economic inequality might have been a side effect of globalization, but it is also recognizable how the roll-back of social safety-nets and the cutting of education budgets have made it possible that the economic gaps drift apart to such a degree. And this I blame entirely on neoliberal economic policies that are just beyond stupid from every angle and would be similarly disastrous without shared markets.

I'm thinking that the US and Britain toppled dived into crazy first because both countries populations have a strong sense of exceptionalism that makes the uneducated parts especially prone to live in their own bubble and bend reality into whatever plays best into their fears. Italy's politics were always nutty, so there isn't anything particularly new there. Brazil as well. And Germany... well, we keep doing horrified lamentations, but it's about right-wing populists that are stuck at 12%. So I'm thinking that we are still riding on the wave of better times when CDU and SPD were fully embracing ordoliberalism with all its benefits.

[DMC]

6 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

as Mexal pointed out, 900 seats were lost in the previous years and only 333 were flipped back.

Gaining 333 seats back in a single cycle is incredibly encouraging, not something to lament about.

7 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

So many Trump supporters say they see no racism, no homophobia, no lying, in Trump. My jaw dropped this morning as a school teacher in D.C. said in 20 years she hasn’t seen any racism in the school. ‘We don’t see color’.

It’s just so gross.

I simply don't know why last night's results should be the first time anyone realized this.  It's been apparent for two years.

11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I’m not sure why so many of you are down.

Because Democrats suck.  It's like you bought them a pony and they're like "no, I wanted a horse!"

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

4 minutes ago, Fez said:

Scot, this one's for you:

Its not settled yet, the state legislature needs to act as well. But its a start.

Lots of good ballot initiatives passed actually, all across the country.

Not the direction I want (I prefer Standard time) but it is a good start.  

Ormond,

The non-SC botn hadn’t occured to me for Charleston but it makes sense.  That and a lot of the traditional blue bloods in Charleston really dislike Trump.

[Mexal]

5 minutes ago, DMC said:

Gaining 333 seats back in a single cycle is incredibly encouraging, not something to lament about.

This. Seriously, this is a good election. Dems lost the 900 seats over a 8 year period. You don't gain 900 seats back in a single mid term.

[Ormond]

7 minutes ago, DMC said:

Because Democrats suck.  It's like you bought them a pony and they're like "no, I wanted a horse!"

Oh gee, the way you phrased that it makes it sound like Democrats have the dreaded "feeling of entitlement."

I think for more of them (us?) it's having a depressive cognitive style where the negative gets magnified and personalized. 

It's related to the difference I heard a pollster who worked for candidates on both sides explain once:  "When you tell a Republican they are losing, they want to kill you. When you tell a Democrat they're losing, they want to kill themselves."

[S John]

11 minutes ago, DMC said:

 

Because Democrats suck.  It's like you bought them a pony and they're like "no, I wanted a horse!"

Seriously , I don't really get the whining.  The Senate was always a long shot and the Dems took back the House in pretty convincing fashion.  There is now a real check on Trump that doesn't involve praying that certain moderate Republicans find a spine / conscience.  To expect everything to change overnight is naive.  We got a piece back, next time we'll try to get more. 

And when I say 'we' I'm only on this team because the other team is so terrible that I don't feel I have a choice.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

With regards to the US election result.

Whether this was a good night for Democrats or not, hangs one thing, and one thing only IMHO.

The health of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. If Twitler gets in another SCOTUS pick, that senate result will be a disaster. If she outlives his Presidency it will be okayish.

Otherwise ofc Florida is a disappointment. With Lex Luthor winning the senate seat, and *sigh* the governorship.

[Corvinus85]

15 minutes ago, S John said:

Bring it.  Trump isn’t winning over any new voters and he kinda lucked into the first term when reliable Dem states in the North went his way.  All his bullshit lies are to keep the people he’s got.  Literally nobody else believes anything he says.  There are any number of things that could compound his isssues in the next 2 years, an economic recession chief among them.

Wisconsin booting Walker, Dem gains in Michigan are bad signs for Trump.  I don’t believe he can afford to have Pa, Wi, and Mi go back to blue.  Would’ve been nice if Dems could have won something in Florida too but Trump will be in for a fight the next 2 years.  Long as the Dems don’t nominate a Turd, I feel like it’s entirely doable to get rid of this guy in 2020.  

Maybe they did. We'll see in 2020. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/6/18052374/florida-amendment-4-felon-voting-rights-results

Quote

Florida voters during Tuesday’s midterm elections approved Amendment 4, automatically restoring voting rights in the state for people previously convicted of felonies.

Florida’s Amendment 4 restores voting rights for people in the state convicted of felonies as long as they have completed their sentences, although anyone convicted of murder or felony sex offenses would be excluded.

 

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Ormond said:

It's related to the difference I heard a pollster who worked for candidates on both sides explain once:  "When you tell a Republican they are losing, they want to kill you. When you tell a Democrat they're losing, they want to kill themselves."

HA!

[David Selig]

Given that apparently every media is proclaiming that the US economy is doing great under Trump and almost everyone is ignoring that the budget deficit is exploding during a long period of GDP growth, which is incredibly shortsighted, I'd say this a pretty impressive performance by the Dems. The ruling party losing so much ground during a period of good economic growth is pretty rare IIRC.

And I know that matters little in the US system, but winning the total popular vote for the House by 9 percentage points is quite impressive, that's a huge margin.

 

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, Mexal said:

This. Seriously, this is a good election. Dems lost the 900 seats over a 8 year period. You don't gain 900 seats back in a single mid term.

I'm trying to convince myself it was a good election.  I've come around to the idea that while OH/FL were disappointing, on the whole the governor's races went pretty well.  Winning WI and NV late really improved my outlook there.

It's just the long term damage in the Senate is really tough to swallow.  If Tester can pull it out that would help a lot.  It's just the Senate is now the gatekeeper to the judicial branch, and the outlook for the Senate is bad not just for 2020, but for a long time.  That's scary.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I've come around to the idea that while OH/FL were disappointing, on the whole the governor's races went pretty well.

If I was able to ignore Florida - which I totally am from now on, we're officially broken up - the House and governor's races went pretty much exactly as expected.

3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

It's just the long term damage in the Senate is really tough to swallow.

Aye, the Senate sucks.  But the Senate swings a lot more than most anticipate.  Who knows what's on tap for 2020, could be competitive races in states we can't imagine right now.

[aceluby]

30 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

But most importantly to me, Lake Minnetonka is finally liberated from Republican rule!!!!! Good bye Erik Paulsen. Have a nice life doing other things, “math guy.” F’ing fraud!!!

Area has been under the GOP thumb for as long as I remember, which is ~25 years ago.  This is HUGE.

[Mexal]

6 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I'm trying to convince myself it was a good election.  I've come around to the idea that while OH/FL were disappointing, on the whole the governor's races went pretty well.  Winning WI and NV late really improved my outlook there.

It's just the long term damage in the Senate is really tough to swallow.  If Tester can pull it out that would help a lot.  It's just the Senate is now the gatekeeper to the judicial branch, and the outlook for the Senate is bad not just for 2020, but for a long time.  That's scary.

Yea man, I hear you. The minority ruling the majority there for a long time is a tough pill to swallow. But that was always highly likely and being down about something that everyone knew would happen is something we have to get over. I'm focusing on the positives because there are legitimate positives and hoping another 2 years of this bullshit can get more people to the polls in 2020.

[aceluby]

26 minutes ago, S John said:

900 seats lost in 8 years, 1/3 of them regained in 2.  That’s not bad at all.

Also, those 900 seats were after the 2 biggest elections in democratic history with the GOP being historically unpopular.

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

If I was able to ignore Florida - which I totally am from now on, we're officially broken up - the House and governor's races went pretty much exactly as expected.

Aye, the Senate sucks.  But the Senate swings a lot more than most anticipate.  Who knows what's on tap for 2020, could be competitive races in states we can't imagine right now.

You never know.  I feel like with Trump President we can gaurantee that Democrats will be motivated in 2020.  The question of how strong/motivated Republicans are will hinge on the economy, as I see it.  If it's going strong, I'd say Trump is favored (but not overwhelmingly).  If it is only so-so, I think he has little chance, and if it's genuinely bad, he's toast.  If Trump provides no coattails, then the 2020 Senate map could indeed open up.  But if the Democrats have to go +5 in the Senate, that is a really tall order. 

[SeanF]

10 minutes ago, Corvinus said:

Maybe they did. We'll see in 2020. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/6/18052374/florida-amendment-4-felon-voting-rights-results

 

Turnout may not be high among ex-felons, and probably quite a few ex-felons like Trump.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The question of how strong/motivated Republicans are will hinge on the economy, as I see it.

Yup.  As it always does.

2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

But if the Democrats have to go +5 in the Senate, that is a really tall order. 

Yes I agree it's safe to say the Dems don't have much of a chance of taking back the Senate until 2022 - and that is due to their poor results last night.  Doesn't mean you can't make progress next cycle.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

19 minutes ago, DMC said:

Because Democrats suck.  It's like you bought them a pony and they're like "no, I wanted a horse!"

Hey man, I’m still a few pages behind, but I don’t get why everyone is saying it was a bloodbath in the Senate. The Dems were going to lose seats absent a giant wave, as I predicted, and it was clear early on that there wasn’t going to be one. Last night was a win, plain and simple. To quote a song Trump ironically played at rallies:

Quote

No, you can't always get what you want
You can't always get what you want
You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometime you find
You get what you need

We needed the House and we got it. We needed gains at the state level and we got it. We wanted the Senate, the institution I care about above all others, but it didn’t matter unless it could be flipped, and it was never going to be flipped. Last night was a win. Enjoy it folks.