US Politics: In Through the Out Door

[Fez]

Self-accountability time. My predictions were:

Quote

 

House: D+45 (range D+35 to D+50, I think more seats will flip than generally expected)

Senate: D+1 (Ds flip AZ, NV, and TX; Rs flip ND and MO)

Governor: D+10 (Ds flip FL, IA, IL, KS, ME, MI, NH, NM, NV, OH, and WI; Rs flip AK)

State Legislatures: D+10 (Ds flip AZ House, FL Senate, IA House, ME Senate, MI House and Senate, NH House, NY Senate, and PA House and Senate; Rs have no flips, though they do win the special election in the MN Senate to go from a tie to outright control).

 

House: I was a bit too optimistic, but not overly so. Right now its +27 and it looks like it'll end up being +36 when all votes are in. There were another six races where Republicans won with 52% of the vote or less, which I imagine will all be top targets in 2020.

Senate: I was way too optimistic. I was right to be deeply concerned about MO, but I missed just badly some of the other races would go.

Governor: I honestly think I did pretty good overall, mostly thanks to being right about KS and WI. FL and OH are the big misses, as they were for most people, and I was wrong on IA. I was also wrong about NH, but something strange happened up there. Sununu won, in a relatively close race, but Democrats took back the state house and senate and it looks like they also took the quirky 5-member executive council that the state has. I wonder if Sununu only won on the strength of his name and any other Republican would've lost.

State legislature: Mixed bag. As elsewhere, I was too bullish on FL and IA; I was wrong about MI and PA, I thought Whitmer and Casey would have longer coattails than they did. AZ was kind of a hopeful moonshot. I was right about NY (not a hard prediction though), and NH and ME. Didn't see CO or MN though. I may wrong about the no R-flips, but its too early to tell if the D-mod R coalition in the Alaska House fell or not.

Overall, I apparently remain a bit too optimistic about Democratic chances in the run-up to elections, but I was a lot closer to the mark this time than in 2016. One area where I can still improve is to remember that there is basically no bottom to how far Democrats can fall in rural areas, and to not make assumptions about states with inadequate polling (which I did in Indiana).

[Maithanet]

4 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Turnout may not be high among ex-felons, and probably quite a few ex-felons like Trump.

I'm not particularly worried about the ex-felons favoring Trump, because I'm pretty sure that on the whole they'll favor the Democrats.  I doubt turnout amongst that group will be particularly high, but in a state that the Democrats seem to always lose by 1%, even a small net gain might make the difference. 

[JGP]

1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

I'm not particularly worried about the ex-felons favoring Trump, because I'm pretty sure that on the whole they'll favor the Democrats.  I doubt turnout amongst that group will be particularly high, but in a state that the Democrats seem to always lose by 1%, even a small net gain might make the difference. 

Mmn. I believe it was Clint Smith [amongst others] who was saying it'll add about 1.4 millions votes. A disproportional amount of those will be black, non? Trust black voters, imo. Even ex-cons.

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Fez said:

Right now its +27 and it looks like it'll end up being +36 when all votes are in.

If it ends up +36 I think I might be the closest with a +38 prediction.  Although I did go over.  Was (probably) two off on the governor's seats due to Ohio and Florida.  Other than that went as expected, the only difference is I guessed South Dakota would be the unforeseen pickup when it was Kansas.  Was wayyy off in the Senate though.  I'm ashamed.

[SeanF]

7 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I'm not particularly worried about the ex-felons favoring Trump, because I'm pretty sure that on the whole they'll favor the Democrats.  I doubt turnout amongst that group will be particularly high, but in a state that the Democrats seem to always lose by 1%, even a small net gain might make the difference. 

I don't know if there are any statistics by race for the 1.4 m, but I should think that most would be blue collar white voters, albeit many are also black and Hispanic voters.

[Maithanet]

15 minutes ago, Fez said:

Self-accountability time. My predictions were:

House: I was a bit too optimistic, but not overly so. Right now its +27 and it looks like it'll end up being +36 when all votes are in. There were another six races where Republicans won with 52% of the vote or less, which I imagine will all be top targets in 2020.

Why do you say it'll end up being D+36?  NYT's current forecast is D+29. 

EDIT:  No wait, NYT's forecast is 229 seats, that would be D+34.  So D+36 is still in play, although optimistic. 

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

EDIT:  No wait, NYT's forecast is 229 seats, that would be D+34.  So D+36 is still in play, although optimistic.

Looking at the outstanding races I'm assuming it will be +35.

[IheartIheartTesla]

For 2020,  Florida should be put in the R camp, and The Democratic strategy to regain the WH should be as if it doesnt exist. Will free up a lot of resources that wont go into that sinkhole (which happens to be scientifically accurate as that state is sitting on a bed of limestone)

[Maithanet]

9 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I don't know if there are any statistics by race for the 1.4 m, but I should think that most would be blue collar white voters, albeit many are also black and Hispanic voters.

Yeah, I can't find the numbers of hispanic ex-cons, but more than 400,000 of them are black. 

[Trebla]

One thing I give Republicans in general and this guy in particular credit for is having NO shame. Republicans endlessly investigated Obama during his two terms as conservatives breathlessly declared each new one "Obama's Waterloo". McConnell himself said his goal was to make Obama a one-term president. As I said, no shame.

[Mexal]

11 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I don't know if there are any statistics by race for the 1.4 m, but I should think that most would be blue collar white voters, albeit many are also black and Hispanic voters.

I think they said 40% of the black men in Florida have a conviction and were ineligible to vote, something like 400k. It's a pretty big deal.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Just now, IheartIheartTesla said:

For 2020,  Florida should be put in the R camp, and The Democratic strategy to regain the WH should be as if it doesnt exist. Will free up a lot of resources that wont go into that sinkhole (which happens to be scientifically accurate as that state is sitting on a bed of limestone)

Will it be built around winning Arizona and ignoring the rust belt states?

[IheartIheartTesla]

Nelson has not conceded in Florida, so there will be a recount there.

[TheKitttenGuard]

Like to get the bad stuff out the why:

Republican Senate pick up- I think this is more in expectation coming from 2016. It is tough but still could be worst.

Floridia- Consider all the polling this is a definite dissappointment. Though I think this so early really damper people moods.

Steve King won- Do not know the real chance opponent had but the man is just revolting.

Now, things to be actually happy about:

The House- The Democractic won the House and that is good. A lot of B.S people in the Administrative has a real check now.

Texas- The excitment for Beto got some house seats to flip. I am especially happy that Pete Session lost. Beto came up short but he did a lot to revitalize the Party there.

"The Blue Wall" rebuilding project- Walker is out in Wisconsin, Whitmar won in Michigan, and Wolf reelected in Pa, and all the Democratic Senators re-elected. I know of solid pick up for the Democrats in the house in Pa. as well. Trump may have a unique popularity. In 2020 if the Democratic Nominee hold all states from 2016 and win back these states than Trump is out.

Laura Kelly beating Kris Kobach for the Kansas governship. Kobach was a big Trump guy and lost in a Deep Red State.

Overall it is a good night for the Democratic Party and Progressives  overall (beside Alabama). Yeah Florida sucks, and Beto came up short. This is not some stunning lost and people have to stop acting like this is 2016 just due to the most optimistic prediction did not happen.

[Guest]

I think Tester ends up ekeing out the W. I checked the NYT county-by-county map for Montana and most of the precincts that haven't yet reported are in counties in which Tester is ahead, while the vast majority of the precincts in counties that Rosendale is winning are reporting at 100%.

Almost all of the unreported votes are in Yellowstone, Lewis and Clark, Gallatin, Cascade, Flathead and Missoula Counties, which happen to be the most populous counties in MT. Based on reported precincts, Tester is overperforming in Missoula, Lewis and Clark, Gallatin and Flathead (where he only got 37% in 2012 and so far has 41% now) compared to his 2012 results, is holding serve in Cascade and is underperforming in Yellowstone, which he won by a a squeaker in 2012 - by less than 500 votes.

He's down a little under 3k votes right now, and Missoula, Gallatin and Cascade counties have either half or less than half of their precincts reporting.

It may be wishful thinking, but I think he holds.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Trebla said:

One thing I give Republicans in general and this guy in particular credit for is having NO shame.

If there's one thing the Republican Senate knows, it's harassment.

2 minutes ago, Mexal said:

I think they said 40% of the black men in Florida have a conviction and were ineligible to vote, something like 400k. It's a pretty big deal.

This is what my sister offered me as consolation when I was giving her shit about Florida.

[JGP]

lol

https://twitter.com/shahed/status/1060200569590214656

[DanteGabriel]

The damage that worries me most will be the court-packing that Republicans can engage in with solidified Senate control. There won't be any more votes hanging on Murkowski or Collins any more. We must all pray for the continued good health of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. But even beyond concerns about the Supreme Court, the federal judiciary has been the only part of government that has done anything to limit Republicans' worst impulses on immigration and voter suppression. The Federalist Society will continue to send their vat-grown ideologues into the judiciary and tilt the courts for decades.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

34 minutes ago, aceluby said:

Area has been under the GOP thumb for as long as I remember, which is ~25 years ago.  This is HUGE.

To be fair, Congressman Ramstad was a pretty good dude, and by today’s standards he would be considered a Democrat, but the district has been controlled by Republicans since 1961. Typically they were liberal Republicans, but Paulsen has been a disgrace. Hopefully Phillips can hold the seat for a while. I’d be going for a swim this morning if it wasn’t snowing outside.

[DMC]

13 minutes ago, DMC said:

This is what my sister offered me as consolation when I was giving her shit about Florida.

Oh, and that they banned dog racing.