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US Politics: In Through the Out Door

DMC

By DMC,
in General Chatter

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Lollygag Council Member

Lollygag

Posted
Posted
Just now, Kalbear said:

Since it's not too early, EVER - what do you have in 2020?

Based on the results last night, I think we can assume that Florida and Ohio are both going to go for Trump outside of economic collapse. (I think we can likely agree that if the economy fails, Trump is almost certainly toast). Which basically gives us the same map as we had in 2016 - meaning that Trump needs Penn, Wisconsin, and Michigan. 

I think Penn is probably going to go Dem in 2020, especially given the results from last night. I think Michigan might as well. Wisconsin though? Honestly the weirdest thing in the world is that the new NAFTA negotiation might make or break that. 

Trump excels at spinning his base who gets their news only from Fox and talk radio. Trump now has Pelosi and the House to blame. He did a press conference earlier today where he was fluffing up Pelosi complements and all to be Speaker. I don't see this as a given at all.

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Mexal Council Member

Mexal

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5 minutes ago, Morpheus said:

Fights are coming, starting immediately with Sessions out. They are hardly the leadership we need, especially with the tone Pelosi took today. They are going to do better.

There is nothing they can do. They have absolutely no control over the Senate, which confirms these people. They'll put the right people in charge of the committees and those people will do what they do but there is nothing the House or Senate Dems can do to stop Trump from shutting down Mueller through Whittaker.

The only thing I hope they do is start to use the fucking media. I'd want them on TV 24/7 about this shit.

For example, about the best they'll be able to do:

 

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Morpheus Council Member

Morpheus

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Posted
Just now, Mexal said:

There is nothing they can do. They have absolutely no control over the Senate, which confirms these people. They'll put the right people in charge of the committees and those people will do what they do but there is nothing the House or Senate Dems can do to stop Trump from shutting down Mueller through Whittaker.

The only thing I hope they do is start to use the fucking media. I'd want them on TV 24/7 about this shit.

I know and I agree with you about a media blitz. But the tone, as I said, needs to change. Stop pretending the Republicans can be negotiated with, they can lead by example, by showing that they understand that as nice as bipartisanship sounds we are not there in this moment when the other party is an unspeakably hostile entity.

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Fez Council Member

Fez

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8 minutes ago, Mexal said:

There is nothing they can do. They have absolutely no control over the Senate, which confirms these people. They'll put the right people in charge of the committees and those people will do what they do but there is nothing the House or Senate Dems can do to stop Trump from shutting down Mueller through Whittaker.

They can't stop it from being shut down, but the House can now force DOJ turn over all of Mueller's documents related to the investigation to the House Intel Committee.

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Kalbear Council Member

Kalbear

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Posted

So...basically Trump waited until he had control of the senate, so he could appoint who he wants, and was going to fire Sessions then? Huh. That's interesting. 

Just now, Fez said:

They can't stop it from being shut down, but the House can now force DOJ turn over all of Mueller's documents related to the investigation to the House Intel Committee.

They cannot until they're sworn in, right? Until then they're basically hosed. 

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JGP Council Member

JGP

Posted
Posted
Just now, Mexal said:

What do you mean? 

Exactly what I said. But to break it down, the US just roughly had a 10% wind change yesterday. Lots are lamenting, but it was a big deal. Independents shifted considerably. I'd imagine there have been many points over the last few years where Republicans were willing to roll the dice and ride it out, for the tax cuts, the stacking of the Judiciary, but this now... Is really pushing it.  

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Mexal Council Member

Mexal

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Posted
Just now, Fez said:

They can't stop it from being shut down, but the House can now force DOJ turn over all of Mueller's documents related to the investigation to the House Intel Committee.

Which they will do. And the DOJ will stonewall for as long as they can. I have no doubt the House will investigate. I just don't think it'll amount to much.

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Mexal Council Member

Mexal

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JEORDHl said:

Exactly what I said. But to break it down, the US just roughly had a 10% wind change yesterday. Lots are lamenting, but it was a big deal. Independents shifted considerably. I'd imagine there have been many points over the last few years where Republicans were willing to roll the dice and ride it out, for the tax cuts, the stacking of the Judiciary, but this now... Is really pushing it.  

Sure, they'll double down. There is no going back now and they know it. The base supports Trump and if they go against them, they won't last.

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Ormond Council Member

Ormond

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2 hours ago, Fez said:

Whew.

Its looked pretty clear for the past few hours that this would be the end result, but still really good to see happen. So a 54-46 Republican senate.

If somehow there are enough ballots left to pull Sinema over the top too (which I don't expect), I'd be downright giddy; a 53-47 Republican senate is much more easy to overcome in 2020.

Also, even though its a longshot, Democrats should actually put the effort into trying to win the Mississippi run-off race. Since Senate control isn't at stake, maybe there will be enough bitter McDaniels voters who stay home that Espy can sneak through. I really doubt it, but every single seat matters.

The Democrats in Montana seem so good at pulling out statewide races in Montana, is there any way they can hold workshops for Democrats in other small "Red" states like Idaho, the Dakotas, and Nebraska to help them win in the future? Or is there something about Montana that's too unique to transfer? 

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Fez Council Member

Fez

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Since it's not too early, EVER - what do you have in 2020?

Based on the results last night, I think we can assume that Florida and Ohio are both going to go for Trump outside of economic collapse. (I think we can likely agree that if the economy fails, Trump is almost certainly toast). Which basically gives us the same map as we had in 2016 - meaning that Trump needs Penn, Wisconsin, and Michigan. 

I think Penn is probably going to go Dem in 2020, especially given the results from last night. I think Michigan might as well. Wisconsin though? Honestly the weirdest thing in the world is that the new NAFTA negotiation might make or break that.

Assuming no economic collapse/nuclear war/etc., I think the path for Dems is to hold the Clinton states, win PA and MI (both of which seem really reasonable after last night) and then win one of WI/IA/NC/AZ. Trump will probably be favored in each of the four, but only slightly in WI and NC, and, much like the House last night, the odds are that one of them will flip. Its certainly not a given though.

However, I think there's a pretty strong chance that there will be a recession by the 2020 election; though I don't know if it'll be like late 2008 at that point, or more like late 2007, where all the signs were there but most people didn't see/feel them yet.

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JGP Council Member

JGP

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Mexal said:

Sure, they'll double down. There is no going back now and they know it. The base supports Trump and if they go against them, they won't last.

[shakes head] Like I said last page. 

Bloodsport. 

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Fragile Bird Council Member

Fragile Bird

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Posted

My God Trump is frigging gutless, sending Kelly to do the dirty work.

Trump shits on Sessions for two years in his tweets but doesn’t even speak to Sessions, and then lies about it at his press conference this morning. Kelly had already made the phone call when Trump was asked about Sessions’ status.

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Lollygag Council Member

Lollygag

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ormond said:

The Democrats in Montana seem so good at pulling out statewide races in Montana, is there any way they can hold workshops for Democrats in other small "Red" states like Idaho, the Dakotas, and Nebraska to help them win in the future? Or is there something about Montana that's too unique to transfer?  

Heard that Tester's family goes back several generations into Montana and he's a real rancher. Not so with his opponent. The piece said that these go a long way there.

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