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US Politics: In Through the Out Door

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40 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Chris Christie beibg consired for AG.

Honestly, considering some of the other options Trump could probably get through the senate, Christie is far from the worst choice. At least he has an actual history in law enforcement and is not an out-and-out racist.

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WaPo article on this impact of Florida ex-cons being able to vote.

Obviously there are some huge caviats to that data, particularly that ex-cons vote at the rate of the average Floridian (I seriously doubt that).  Nonetheless, it finds that these voters would have been a net increase of between 80k and 150k votes in the Senate race, which would be more than enough to put Nelson (or Gillum) over the top. 

 

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Good ol' local Florida election officials...

The follow-up tweet notes that this probably cost Nelson around 1,500 net votes, which currently isn't nearly enough to make up the difference. But if the margin keeps dropping, this'll become more and more important.

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15 minutes ago, Fez said:

Honestly, considering some of the other options Trump could probably get through the senate, Christie is far from the worst choice. At least he has an actual history in law enforcement and is not an out-and-out racist.

He will be as racist as Trump feels the base wants him to be, he is a sycophantic shit, pleasing Trump will be his job, not following the law. There won’t be a good choice offered, there are no good people in the administration and good people don’t want to work there.

Edited by Morpheus

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4 hours ago, DMC said:

Don't tell me how my cynicism was shaped.  I was raised in an incredibly privileged environment that emphasized optimism in the possible changes for the future.  Looking back, that was literally the curriculum.  That and they are not to blame for me being a cynical asshole.  I would have been a cynical asshole no matter where or how I was raised - let alone it's "political culture."

Personally I find your posts to be definitely less cynical than those of some other regular posters on these threads. 

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1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

I've been a member of this board for almost 7 years. It's funny that we have gone from having regular arguments about gun control and opening threads when a mass shooting happened to not even mentioning such event.

An important fact. Trump and the NRA claim all you have to do is put security in schools and churches and bars and that'll end all this nonsense. The California shooter, who probably was familiar with the bar, was a 28 year old Marine Corps veteran who first shot the security outside the bar and then when he entered the bar immediately shot the security guys inside. And kills the first police officer through the door.

Some of the people in the bar survived the Las Vegas shooting....

I can't think of another western democracy where people survive one mass shooting and get gunned down in another. I've heard of a few people that this has happened to already. A survivor of the theater shooting a few years ago got killed in another mass shooting somewhere else, and someone else a well.

There was an incident at his home a while ago and they sent in the mental health team, concerned he suffered from PTSD. He was cleared the same day. Someone is going to feel pretty badly about that decision. Someone might be getting sued for that decision.

Birdie, we’re beyond cowboys. And samurais. Westworld and Shogunworld don’t have anything on us. William went into the park because he wasn’t tough enough to cut it here. Charlores is in for a rude awakening.

 

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1 hour ago, Martell Spy said:

Chris Christie beibg consired for AG.

This could be a sneaky positive sign. Jared stabbed him the back because Christie put his criminal father in jail. Maybe he’ll let Mueller suggest that Jared should wear an orange suit too.

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2 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

RBG fell in court and has three broken ribs...not sure how relevant it is to this thread, but I was reminded of the (somewhat ghoulish) discussion of the mortality of various SC judges yesterday.

It's quite ridiculous that the idiotic lifetime appointment system and the extreme politisation of the Supreme court means that justices who are 80+ year old and/or in poor health feel they can't retire until they get the right combo of a President and Senate.

 

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1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

I've been a member of this board for almost 7 years. It's funny that we have gone from having regular arguments about gun control and opening threads when a mass shooting happened to not even mentioning such event.

Well mass shootings are getting dramatically more common.  This WaPo article discusses it.  If we define mass casualty shootings as 10+ people killed, then here's what we're seeing:

Clinton Presidency:  1 incident (Columbine) in 8 years.

George W. Bush Presidency:  2 incidents in 8 years.

Obama (first term):  3 incidents in 4 years.

Obama (second term):  4 incidents in 4 years.

Trump:  6 incidents in less than 2 years.

So it's definitely not your imagination.  This sort of thing is getting a lot more common.

Edited by Maithanet

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And I think last year sometime if you counted all shootings where either 3 or 4 people were killed or wounded, (I forget which number it was) we were at more than 1 per day.

That’s simultaneously scary, numbing, and demoralizing to know.

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21 minutes ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

I’d take that as a sign that he knows he is safe. Abrams’ campaign has been complaining that Kemp is getting show data that they are not.

 

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5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I’d take that as a sign that he knows he is safe. Abrams’ campaign has been complaining that Kemp is getting show data that they are not.

 

Me too, that whole situation just smells.

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2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

I've been a member of this board for almost 7 years. It's funny that we have gone from having regular arguments about gun control and opening threads when a mass shooting happened to not even mentioning such event.

An important fact. Trump and the NRA claim all you have to do is put security in schools and churches and bars and that'll end all this nonsense. The California shooter, who probably was familiar with the bar, was a 28 year old Marine Corps veteran who first shot the security outside the bar and then when he entered the bar immediately shot the security guys inside. And kills the first police officer through the door.

Some of the people in the bar survived the Las Vegas shooting....

I can't think of another western democracy where people survive one mass shooting and get gunned down in another. I've heard of a few people that this has happened to already. A survivor of the theater shooting a few years ago got killed in another mass shooting somewhere else, and someone else a well.

There was an incident at his home a while ago and they sent in the mental health team, concerned he suffered from PTSD. He was cleared the same day. Someone is going to feel pretty badly about that decision. Someone might be getting sued for that decision.

I’ve been to this bar for line dancing with my wife and friends on group outings, she’s been many more times than me, it’s an extremely large venue, and being it’s a country music bar, I remember security being armed with a handgun, everyone had to be patted down and men from the line being sent back to their pickup trucks to leave their open or concealed carry handguns there. And this was eight years ago when shootings were less common.

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13 hours ago, Triskele said:

Not that I think these people are above reproach, but I seriously doubt that they seriously think the GOP in Congress will turn on Trump.

This could be the equivalent of Susan Collins saying she's sure Kavanaugh is fine on abortion where it's probably not what she really thinks but just the thing that's said in that situation.  

There is no chance Pelosi doesn't realize where we're at and that we're unlikely to get much help from Republicans.  

I just wanted to come back around to your comment, Mr. Homicidal Ape, to clarify the root cause of my anger at Schumer's and Pelosi's paeans to bipartisanship the past couple of days.

I agree with you that they're not saying these things because they sincerely believe them. Rather, I think @Paladin of Ice articulated my thoughts more eloquently than I possibly could.

Quote

Gotta agree with Trisk, I don’t take what Pelosi or Schumer are saying at face value at all. Of course they don’t expect Republicans to suddenly stand up for what’s right or for Trump to do a 180 and be a reasonable deal maker, they’re saying it because it’s what is the traditionally expected and ritual thing to say, and so when Republicans turn around and spit on the outstretched hand, Democrats can turn around to the press and the people and say “Well, we tried, and you all saw it.”

What they don’t seem to get is that the traditional way is outdated and, for the foreseeable future, as meaningless as yesterday’s garbage. The press isn’t an impartial ref between the sides, it’s mostly giant corporations that will bend over backwards to avoid alienating potential customers, even if that means utterly neglecting their basic function. When a large segment of potential customers (right wingers) insist that the sky isn’t blue but yellow and purple polka dots and constantly rail against you for not giving fair treatment to the polka dot theory, most corporate media will find a way to twist their reporting to not directly contradict the polka dot point of view.

 The general public doesn’t care either, since most of them only pay loose attention to political news at best, and often only when there’s an election around the corner. (political junkies who constantly follow the news and talk about it in person or online are very much outside the norm.)About the only thing they really care about is effectiveness, not whether you’re doing something the right way or according to the rules.

Democratic politicians are like an athletic competitor whose opponent blatantly cheats, so Democrats look to the ref and the crowd to plead their case and get rewarded. Except the ref is just shrugging and letting things go on, the crowd is not actually watching the action, and the opponent is using the chance to rack up the points, however illegally they’ve been gained. When the crowd finally does tune in to see what the final score was, all they see are that Democrats are losers.

Dems keep thinking someday they’ll be rewarded for trying to win strictly according to the rules, that the ref will call fouls and/or disqualify the opponent and the crowd will run the opponent out of town, but bottom line it looks pretty damn unlikely, and if it does ever happen it’s going to be at the margins and not a deciding factor.

That is what I think Dems can’t or won’t wrap their heads around. They’re still gesturing to the ref and crowd and nothing is going to happen.

The bolded portion especially perfectly encapsulates my thoughts on the matter. Congressional Democratic leaders, for whatever reason (probably because most of them are older than God), are falling victim to one the classic blunders, only slightly less well-known than the two most famous: "Never get involved in a land war in Asia" and "Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line", and the third being generals fighting the last war when they're facing new enemies, new strategies, new tactics and advances in technology.

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28 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Well mass shootings are getting dramatically more common.  This WaPo article discusses it.  If we define mass casualty shootings as 10+ people killed, then here's what we're seeing:

Clinton Presidency:  1 incident (Columbine) in 8 years.

George W. Bush Presidency:  2 incidents in 8 years.

Obama (first term):  3 incidents in 4 years.

Obama (second term):  4 incidents in 4 years.

Trump:  6 incidents in less than 2 years.

So it's definitely not your imagination.  This sort of thing is getting a lot more common.

This is reflective of the massive increase in the volume of guns in the United States after Obama was elected, more guns equals more shootings.

one of my wealthy midwestern relatives bought more than twenty guns the first year after Obama’s 2008 election and continued buying pretty much one gun a month for basically the next seven years.

because Obama was going to make it illegal to buy guns any day now according to my relative.

Edited by lokisnow

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2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

And isn't it 5pm Arizona time?  We defs have some waiting to do.

It's 5 o'clock somewhere....

Every couple years the ridiculous patchwork nature of the US voting system comes into sharp relief. Things that particularly irk me are stuff like the Florida vote counts, where the races are always close, and it always ends up being "Miami-Dade 75% precincts reporting, with Candidate X up by 1% total" , and now you have to do mental math to figure out if the votes are there. 

There has to be a better way not only to vote, but also count votes and report them all at the same damn time (probably with EV machines).

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Ruth Bader Ginsburg had the chance to retire 4-5 years ago, which would've allowed Dems to fill her seat with someone younger, but she decided not to. Said something about this yesterday, and then today she falls and breaks 3 ribs. 
She's going to die before Dems ever have a chance to fill her seat.

Obama was very much a failure when it came to, well, most things. He was way too civil with the GOP.

So, yea, thanks Obama.

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