Jon Arryn and The Truth About Cersei and her Bastards

[gendrybranaryandjon]

We know that Jon Arryn (and Stannis) had pretty much figured out the truth about Cersei and that none of her children were Robert's but we also know that Cersei didn't kill Jon Arryn, Lysa and Littlefinger did. 

So my question is, did Cersei have any clue that Stannis and Jon were so close to ruining her? If Littlefinger hadn't mettled what would have happened to Jon Aryyn? Would he have been able to tell Robert the truth? Was that the act that truly started the war of the five kings?

[Ralphis Baratheon]

Pycelle was the one with the  lineage book and may have figured it out too which is possibly why Jon Arryn's condition worsened once he was in Pycelle's care. The problem for Jon Arryn and Stannis is even if they were both 100% certain Cersei's kids were fathered by Jaime they had no real way to prove it. Even with the book about lineages and Baratheons having black hair.  Catching Cersei and Jaime  in the act added on top of the information from the book would do it, then again catching Cersei and Jaime in the act would have probably been enough in itself. Lysa wanted Jon Arryn dead so he couldn't foster sweet Robin to another lord and take him away from her, Baelish wanted Jon Arryn dead so he could marry Lysa and take control of the Vale. Jon Arryn dying was a bit of lucky break for Cersei because if Stannis alone accused her of the affair it'd look like he was doing it to make himself heir to the Throne, and Robert might not believe him alone anyway. 

 

[Unacosamedarisa]

8 hours ago, gendrybranaryandjon said:

So my question is, did Cersei have any clue that Stannis and Jon were so close to ruining her?

Yes. It's why she fled to Casterly Rock just before Jon's death... she feared that Jon was about to reveal what he knew to Robert.  

[John Suburbs]

10 hours ago, gendrybranaryandjon said:

We know that Jon Arryn (and Stannis) had pretty much figured out the truth about Cersei and that none of her children were Robert's but we also know that Cersei didn't kill Jon Arryn, Lysa and Littlefinger did. 

So my question is, did Cersei have any clue that Stannis and Jon were so close to ruining her? If Littlefinger hadn't mettled what would have happened to Jon Aryyn? Would he have been able to tell Robert the truth? Was that the act that truly started the war of the five kings?

I don't think she was terribly concerned about it. She certainly isn't bothered when Ned confronts her with the same thing. She basically admits it, which means she now has to deny not just the physical traits of her children but the sworn testimony of the most honorable Ned Stark, King's Roberts truest, most loyal and best friend in the world.

The fact is, words in a book are not proof of anything. Plenty of legitimate children look like their mothers, not their fathers. And since it would quickly come to light that Stannis was the one pushing JA in this direction, the whole thing could have been spun into a self-serving machination on his part.

The act that truly set off the Wot5K was Catelyn's taking of Tyrion, but even that has roots in the past: the letter to Cat, the castpaw, the dagger tied to Tyrion -- all of which was instigated by Littlefinger.

[dmfn]

Do you guys think Robert would have confronted Jaime? And what would the result of that be if it happened? Another king killed by the Kingslayer? 

[John Suburbs]

That's a good question. Would Jaime deny it? Probably, since it would cost him his life if he fessed up. I doubt Robert would confront him in private. Most likely, all this would happen in court, with Jon and Stannis laying their charge and Jaime right there to answer it. 

A more interesting question, though, is whether Cersei would let it get to that point, or would she get rid of Jaime?

[Megorova]

16 hours ago, gendrybranaryandjon said:

So my question is, did Cersei have any clue that Stannis and Jon were so close to ruining her?

The thing is, Stannis and Jon Arryn weren't as naive as Ned Stark, thus they wouldn't have confronted Cersei with a half-baked theory about her infidelity. Instead they would have acted behind her back (as they did), and would have called her out, to face her husband, only when they already has proved to Robert, that Cersei's children are not his. If she knew, that Stannis suspects her, she would have run to Essos, or at least back to Casterly Rock, not behaved like nothing is going on. I'm sure, that she had no idea. Because, if she had even a smallest suspision, that someone is questioning paternity of her children, then she wouldn't have f*cked with Jeime, when they went to Winterfell. Her behaviour at that time is a proof, that she wasn't aware, of what's going on. Jon Arryn died, and she thought, that her secret was gone with him.

[Clegane'sPup]

17 hours ago, gendrybranaryandjon said:

So my question is, did Cersei have any clue that Stannis and Jon were so close to ruining her?

Yes, I think Cersei had a clue that there were whispers about the parentage of her offspring.

Pycelle is a Lannister lackey. I would think that Pycelle told Cersei that JA was snooping round.

In a CoK in a Tyrion chapter Pycelle says:

A Clash of Kings - Tyrion VI     "He [Robert] was a wretched king . . . vain, drunken, lecherous . . . he would have set your sister aside, his own queen . . . please . . . Renly was plotting to bring the Highgarden maid to court, to entice his brother . . . it is the gods' own truth . . ."     "And what was Lord Arryn plotting?"    "He knew," Pycelle said. "About . . . about . . ."    "I know what he knew about," snapped Tyrion, who was not anxious for Shagga and Timett to know as well.   "He [JA] was sending his wife back to the Eyrie, and his son to be fostered on Dragonstone . . . he meant to act . . ."/

17 hours ago, gendrybranaryandjon said:

If Littlefinger hadn't mettled what would have happened to Jon Aryyn?

Tricksy part. There is a Lysa confession in a later book that Lysa gave JA the poison at LF's suggestion.  Below is an interesting conversation between Tyrion and Pycelle.

A Clash of Kings - Tyrion VI     Tyrion tsked at him. "I saw the tears of Lys among your potions. And you sent away Lord Arryn's own maester and tended him yourself, so you could make certain that he died."    "A falsehood!"  <snip>   Yes," he [Pycelle] whimpered, "yes, Colemon was purging, so I sent him away.       The queen needed Lord Arryn dead, she did not say so, could not, Varys was listening, always listening, but when I looked at her I knew. It was not me who gave him the poison, though, I swear it." The old man wept. "Varys will tell you, it was the boy, his squire, Hugh he was called, he must surely have done it, ask your sister, ask her."/****

So, the question is if JA's maester had successfully purged JA of the "tears of Lys" which eats at a man's bowels and belly, and kills as a sickness of those parts would JA have survived?

17 hours ago, gendrybranaryandjon said:

Would he have been able to tell Robert the truth?

Yes, ff JA had survived.

17 hours ago, gendrybranaryandjon said:

Was that the act that truly started the war of the five kings?

No, JA's death didn't start the war.  Personal opine --- martin had to start the story somewhere. Luwins's gift with the hidden message was a rather good start. Stirring up mystery and intrigue.

A series of events led to the war of the five kings --- and again a personal opine --- Tywin got angry that Lady Stark snatched up Tyrion.  Twyin sent sellswords into the Riverlands to wreak havoc.   ---- King Bob dies --- Eddard dies ---  the northmen revolt ---- Renly & Stannis have a go at each other ---- Balon attacks the north.  The game grows. Who is telling the truth? Who is telling a lie?

Instead of me griping about martin's writing style, this time I have to give martin kudos for his presentation of power and politics in a fiction setting.

***** JA's squire mentioned above, Hugh, happened to die at the point of Gregor's lance. More weaving which I think led Eddard to Tobho Mott whose business had the ebony & white weirwood doors and who [Tobho] later smelted Eddard's beloved ICE into two smaller swords.

EDIT    I forgot about Bran being tossed from a window by Jaime. Cat seeking out Eddard at KL with news of the catspaw and the dagger. The dagger which LF assisted Cat & Ned to believe was Tyrion's.

[Angel Eyes]

You know, I’m still not quite sure how Stannis started his suspicions that Robert’s “children” were all bastards born of incest, since it appears that he brought his suspicious to Jon Arryn. If it’s based on appearance, that wouldn’t make sense since that would be like accusing Catelyn of cuckolding Ned since all but one of his offspring resemble her. 

[the Other Wolf]

35 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

If it’s based on appearance, that wouldn’t make sense 

I would assume Jon had an assumption long before he read EVERY Trueborn Stag had BLACK hair and EVERY one of Robert's bastards have BLACk hair...just sayin'

IF there was suspicion of Cat fucking her brother AND ALL her kids had the Tully look then your argument would hold water.

[Chris Mormont]

It is never revealed where or who first suspected that Cersie's kids were not Roberts, but my guess is it was the same person who set Gendry up with his apprenticeship, which we can assume was Jon A.  I am basing this on my suspicion that he checked in on Gendry from time to time and saw the resemblance with Robert.  He also knows Mya Stone and knows she also has black hair.

Jon probably spoke to Stannis and took him to meet Gendry.