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Young Griff and the Pole Boat Companions: An In-Depth Analysis


Lady Rhodes

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I have been rereading Dance.  This is my first time rereading it in full, not just chapters, and I am taking the time to read it in relation to theories that other people have pointed out.  No one is infallible, and I miss things like anyone else.  However, the more I read, the more I am convinced that Young Griff is Aegon VI Targaryen.  In the following sections, I will discuss common theories with textual evidence to explain my beliefs.  I will continue on to discuss the remainder of the pole boat companions, and furthermore, conclude with how I think the reintroduction of Aegon affects the overall story.

  1. On Quaithe, on the Undying, and the Details of Grammar

Frequently, Quaithe’s warning is seen as indication that Aegon is not Aegon at all, but a false dragon, a fake, a mummer.  The quote is long and refers to many characters, but in short, it is to not trust the mummer’s dragon.  Quaithe is telling Dany to beware, to be skeptical, to not trust this dragon that is going to appear before her.  Many readers have taken this to mean that the dragon, or Aegon, is a fake, a mummer dragon.  However, that is not what the text says.  The text could easily have read to not trust the mummer dragon.  The meaning would be plain: the word mummer would be used here as an adjective to describe dragon, describing the dragon as a mummer, as a fake, as a falsehood.  That is not what the text says, though.  The text says “mummer’s dragon”.   The word “mummer’s” is formed as a possessive, meaning that dragon belongs to the mummer, which is inferred as Varys.  He is the mummer’s dragon.  Aegon is Varys’ dragon.  There is nothing surprising here.  We knew this already, from the second Tyrion chapter, that this was going on.  Some may say that this is simply a stylish flourish and does not mean anything.  I disagree.  This is the second time that it has been described as such.  In A Clash of Kings, the Undying show her a cloth mummer’s dragon being beloved by the people.  Again, it was referred to as “mummer’s dragon”, as in the dragon that belongs to the mummer.  In addition, the “slayer of lies” that is stated in the Undying is in used after references to the Blue Eyed King and Stone Dragons.  Thus, it is not necessarily in reference to the cloth mummer’s dragon.   Quaithe’s prophecy cannot be used as sufficient evidence when deciding whether or not Aegon is a fake, nor can the Undying’s prophecy.  They should heed as warnings to Dany – that you are not the only Targaryen that remains and that your conquest of Westeros may be more difficult than you anticipate.

  1. Switching at the Red Keep

Another point that is often brought up in regards to the authenticity of Aegon is the switching of the children at the Red Keep.  How would Varys have known to do this?  Is it to be believed that Tywin arrives at the gates, Varys tells Aerys to not open the gates, Pycelle tells Aerys to open the gates, and Varys has enough time to switch the babes? Dubious at best.  I agree – I believe that the plan to switch the babes had nothing to do with Tywin arriving at King’s Landing and everything to do with Aerys and wildfire. How did he know that Gregor was going to bash the pisswater prince’s head in, making it unrecognizable?  He didn’t; he thought that the baby was going to be burnt to a crisp by Aerys.

Varys had more than enough reason to become wary of Aerys.  Once Aerys started burning people with growing regularity, and once the rebellion was in full swing, Varys had to come up with contingency plans.  I recall what Varys tells Ned Stark when asked who he serves “Why, the realm, my good lord, how ever could you doubt that? I swear it by my lost manhood.  I serve the realm, and the realm needs peace.”  I don’t want to delve too far into other theories, such as southron ambitions and the Tourney of Harrenhal, because those can be essays by their own merit.  In short, I will say that after the Defiance of Duskendale, Varys became acutely aware that Aerys was not the King the realm needed, but Rhaegar was. If there was any plot to usurp Aerys with Rhaegar, I believe Varys would have been aware. Did Varys know about the Prince that was Promised theory and Rhaegar’s fascination or obsession with it? I won’t hazard a guess.  I will say, though, that Varys heard a voice in the brazier when he was cut. We don’t know what was said, but it is possible that Varys could have been a confidant of Rhaegar’s in relation to this prophecy, or at a minimum, receptive to Rhaegar’s musing on the issue.

I have other thoughts regarding this time that will be addressed later in this essay, but in short, I will say that I think Varys already had reason to suspect that that Elia, Rhaenys, and Aegon were going to die, particularly in ways that would leave them unrecognizable.  He had plans already set up to have the switch occur and as we know, Varys knows was in and out of the Red Keep that others are not familiar with.  Lest we forget that Arya is only one that knew Illyrio was not only in King’s Landing but in the Red Keep – if he, a grotesquely overweight cheesemonger, can be IN THE RED KEEP (it is worth mentioning again!) without anyone knowing – I think it is entirely possible the switch could have been done during the chaos that was surrounding the capital. Thus, we can conclude that it is reasonable for Varys to have facilitated a switch.

  1. The Blackfyre Line

Most commonly, Aegon is believed to be Blackfyre and oftentimes there are two reasons given for this.  The first is that Illyrio specifically mentions that the Blackfyre line is dead in the male line – no mention is made of the female line. The second is the Golden Company breaking the contract for a Targaryen – a sworn enemy. They feel their forebears were more entitled to the throne, so why would they fight to put a Targaryen on it?

I will first address the Golden Company.  At this juncture, there are no longer any Blackfyre’s in the Golden Company. It is now a band of exiles and sellswords, fighting for gold and yearning for home.  Any lingering desires to annihilate Targaryen’s should be met with skepticism.  Why would Myles Toyne be grooming Jon Connington, Hand to the King of a Targaryen, Best Friend to the Crown Prince Rhaegar, for taking over the Golden Company? If there is lingering resentment, why give this whole company to a Targaryen loyalist? The answer is simple. You wouldn’t. The Golden Company does not have their original mission of wanting to seat a Blackfyre on the throne; they only have the mission of wanting to go home.  As Illyrio puts it, a dragon is still a dragon. They will use Viserys, Daenerys, or Aegon (more on this later, thought.)

Now, I will address the Illyrio comment by delving into a bit of history.  He was a Pentoshi Braavo, befriended Varys after he was cut, and they found his wife Serra in Lys.  Some interesting connections are here.  Vary is also from Lys. We learn two very interesting things about Lord Varys when we learn that he was cut: 1) he has a very deep distaste of magic because of this and 2) he heard a voice that said something terrifying.  We know from Melisandre that there is power in King’s Blood.  We can infer, then, that Varys had some sort of blood powerful enough to be used in a magical ritual. I believe Varys is the true Blackfyre.  By being cut, the male blackfyre line is officially dead.  I have tried to research to find out the exact age of Serra, but I believe that she and Varys are related.  At first I thought she was his mother, but I am more inclined to believe that they are siblings.  I think Varys asked his new friend to save his sister, and Illyrio fell in love.  Now, some may be saying: What does it matter? They are still Blackfyre’s plotting, and none of this dissuades us from saying that Aegon is not a Blackfyre.  What matters is that even though Varys and Serra may be Blackfyre’s, there is nothing to suggest that they have had children. Illryio’s love for Serra, and Varys’ love for his sister, is enough for them to carry out the mission of the Golden Company – a dragon on the throne.  A dragon is still a dragon.  I will grant you all that this is more tenuous, but when it is aligned with the other bits of evidence, it is plausible.

  1. Lies in the Red Keep

Why would Varys lie to Kevan? He has already shot him with a crossbow, Kevan is dying.  There is no reason to mention anything about Aegon at all.  He could have only said the bits about Ceresi and the Tyrell’s, and it would have been just as plausible.  Additionally, we have evidence in Varys’ speech against Aegon being a Blackfyre! Blackfyre’s believe that the throne is theirs by rights.  But Varys specifically says that Aegon does not believe that the throne is his right; he believes that it is his duty.  Futhermore, looking for halftruths in Varys speech can be valuable but it negates the fact that he has no reason to do so – Kevan is a dying man.  He is not like Ned or Tyrion, people who were still alive when Varys spoke halftruths to.  Ned and Tyrion could move about and speak to someone else after speaking with Varys.  Kevan will have no such luxury. No, for Martin to include this as the epilogue, I believe Martin was trying to give the skeptics confirmation that Aegon is in fact, real and legitimate. 

  1. Tyrion and Moqorro

     

    Moqorro tells Tyrion that there are true and false dragons.  Some use this also to point to Aegon being a Blackfyre or nothing at all.  However, we do have another bastard Targaryen, confirmed, on the map: Bloodraven.   It is interesting that the wording comes after discussing dragons young and old.  We know the young dragons, but who could be the old? Bloodraven, beyond the Wall, with Bran.

     

  2. The Pentoshi Plot

So, what is really going on? Why in the world does Illryio and Varys care about Westeros? Tyrion tries to suss out as much early on in Dance.  He is skeptical of Illyrio, finding his claims of birth rights dubious at best, and still skeptical of desires of master of coin and castles.  We can find agreement – what these two old friends are up to is not what is being presented at this juncture.  In addition, we have these companions on the pole boat. Who are they? What do they truly want? What are their goals? Why would they help a Targaryen Prince? On this, I have a few thoughts. 

Refer back to my section on the baby swap.  Varys had reason to believe that Aerys was going to send everyone up in smoke with wildfire.  In addition, Elia was cut in half by Gregor Clegane.  Many folks point to Elia clenching her babe and fighting the mountain to save him as proof that he was her son.  Interesting that Elia, weak, feeble, ill from childbirth, is trying to fight the MOUNTAIN. A mother was protecting her son, alright. The pisswater prince’s mother.  Septa Lemore does not have a lot of physical description to her.  I believe she is Elia Martell of Dorne, and furthermore, I think this will be revealed when Arianne meets with them in Storm’s End. Arianne can provide verification of Septa Lemore’s true identity.  The big question here for me is Rhaenys. Why was she left behind? Could Varys not get to her in time to make the switch?  The fact that Ser Gregor killed “Elia” and “Aegon” but Amory Lorch killed Rhaenys makes me think that they were in two different locations/rooms.

An old adage states that sometimes a duck is still a duck.  I think this applies pointedly to our group.  Sometimes a Duck is just a Duck, or Sir Rolly Duckfield.  I think that Haldon is also a halfmaester.  I don’t think they have a secret identity.  That said, I am curious to find out why Haldon is only a halfmaester: banned from Citadel? Punished for some reason? Why is he in Essos? Those questions puzzle me more.

Illyrio and Varys wanted war in Westeros: to weaken the continent so that a Targaryen restoration would be a palatable if not rationale choice. The plan was never for Viserys to be on the throne.  Aegon was always the prize…until Daenerys wielded her power and her dragons. 

More interestingly, though, is I wonder if they knew about Rhaegar and Lyanna…but that is a story for another day.               

As always, love to hear thoughts.

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Interesting theory, I really have no idea if Aegon is a Targaryen or a Blackfyre. I would personally prefer a Blackfyre if only because I think it would make a more interesting story. Surely even if the text is referring to Aegon being Varys' dragon it still wouldn't mean Aegon isn't a Blackfyre. As you said, "a dragon is a dragon", which means Aegon could be a dragon of any colouring. If anything him being a fake dragon would imply that he has no relation to the Targaryens at all. 

I think the biggest twist would be if Varys actually did get the real Aegon out of Kingslanding, gave him to Illyrio, and then Illyrio swaps the real Aegon with his Blackfyre son. Now that would be some fuckery.  xD

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Sounds good. The death by wildfire is a nice touch to give Varys time to make a real plan. However, I wonder if Aerys was really cruel enough to burn his own grandchild alive. I know he said they smelled Dornish, but yikes! 

Everything else lines up nicely. I have long believed Aegon to be exactly who he claims to be. Lenore being his mother makes sense. (she would be comfortable bathing nude in the Rhoyne) Griff's loyalty can only be reasoned by (at least his belief that) Aegon being his beloved Rheagar's son. 

As far as the children being in different places in the Keep, I believe a nursery and a bedroom were mentioned.

And, of course, sometimes a duck is just a duck. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On ‎11‎/‎8‎/‎2018 at 1:21 PM, Lady Rhodes said:
  1. Switching at the Red Keep

Another point that is often brought up in regards to the authenticity of Aegon is the switching of the children at the Red Keep.  How would Varys have known to do this?  Is it to be believed that Tywin arrives at the gates, Varys tells Aerys to not open the gates, Pycelle tells Aerys to open the gates, and Varys has enough time to switch the babes? Dubious at best.  I agree – I believe that the plan to switch the babes had nothing to do with Tywin arriving at King’s Landing and everything to do with Aerys and wildfire. How did he know that Gregor was going to bash the pisswater prince’s head in, making it unrecognizable?  He didn’t; he thought that the baby was going to be burnt to a crisp by Aerys. 

The only thing I'll point out regarding the switching of the children is that Varys would have had plenty of time to pull that off after the gates were opened. The Lion's Gate is still several miles from the Red Keep, so even if the gate swung open and Tywin immediately attacked, he still has to fight his way through the city, over or around Visenya's Hill, and into the RK. My guess, though, is that he feigned friendship long enough to get all or most of his men inside the gates first and then launched the sack, which still would have taken several hours. And Varys would have plenty of children at his disposal to make the switch real quick if he had to.

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