US Politics: Dead Pimps Need Not Apply

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

By that logic Nancy Pelosi is a better candidate for President that Beto.  Is that what you are trying to say?  Nominate someone who undercuts Trumps cross-overs not someone who drives his cross-overs to the polls to vote for him again.

No, I'm saying if the Dems win where they usually win, that candidate will win the election.  I think it's fair to say the Dems "usually" win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.  All they need to do is get those back.  The notion Beto is a better candidate because he came close in Texas is highly flawed.  There's absolutely no evidence Beto will appeal to "crossovers," which I'm assuming you mean Obama-Trump voters, outside of Texas.  Maybe he will, but nobody knows that right now.  More importantly, he still lost in a highly favorable environment against a pretty well-hated candidate.  That doesn't bode well for his ability to add to the electoral map.  What states does he put in play more than anyone else?  Arizona?  North Carolina?  No reason to think that right now.  Maybe Florida, but my relationship right now with Florida is quite tempestuous.

[Morpheus]

 

[Gone and Quite Forgotten]

EDIT: Never mind.

[Impmk2]

1 hour ago, Datepalm said:

After catching up on the midterm results (flights, conference), my gut feeling is now that Trump will take 2020 (if he runs). The rot in the right runs to the bone. That 40% of trumpists is rock solid, enthusiastic, and holding steady if not growing. The left will continue to eat itself in internecine battles that conflate coolness and self-satisfaction with ideology and solidarity.

I disagree and have a more positive spin: 

The Ds had very good nights in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, with big margins in the house. Those are the three states Trump won by less than 1%, and handed him the EC victory. 2016 was very close.

Sure Florida was disappointing (but again, extremely close), but Florida is not necessary.

At the same time Trump is just doubling down on his rhetoric; he isn't interested in expanding his, old, white, and dying base. The Ds are energized to vote against him regardless of minor ideological differences, in a way that they weren't in 2016.

Women swung towards the Democrats in a big way. 

OTOH incumbency brings its advantage and the economy is rocketing along. Still, the signs are not bad for 2020. Certainly not bad enough to be calling it yet.

[Ice Queen]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

No, I'm saying if the Dems win where they usually win, that candidate will win the election.  I think it's fair to say the Dems "usually" win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.  All they need to do is get those back.  The notion Beto is a better candidate because he came close in Texas is highly flawed.  There's absolutely no evidence Beto will appeal to "crossovers," which I'm assuming you mean Obama-Trump voters, outside of Texas.  Maybe he will, but nobody knows that right now.  More importantly, he still lost in a highly favorable environment against a pretty well-hated candidate.  That doesn't bode well for his ability to add to the electoral map.  What states does he put in play more than anyone else?  Arizona?  North Carolina?  No reason to think that right now.  Maybe Florida, but my relationship right now with Florida is quite tempestuous.

The easiest road is through the rust belt. Ohio might be tougher, but if they can get PA, MI and WI they're in good shape.

Forget Florida. It's now ruby red. The rest of the south isn't flipping, either. 

[Paxter]

21 hours ago, Wethers said:

Arizona Senate race update as of 6:30pm Arizona time (MST) as the mail-in ballot count continues:  Sinema's lead grows to a bit under 30k.  Tons of ballots still remain but I'm starting to feel good about this one.

Kyrsten Sinema (D):  1,048,655 (49.53%)

Martha McSally (R):  1,018,823 (48.12%)

As an aside, the Arizona Dem Secretary of State candidate (Hobbs) was trailing by tens of thousands a few days ago and is now within 2k of the Rep candidate (Gaynor).

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

 

Looks like a healthy chunk of the uncounted votes are in Dem-leaning areas, so McSally will need a lot to go her way to win it. 

[DMC]

Just now, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

The easiest road is through the rust belt. Ohio might be tougher, but if they can get PA, MI and WI they're in good shape.

Forget Florida. It's now ruby red. The rest of the south isn't flipping, either. 

I agree with the bolded, but wanna point out that Ohio looks much tougher than Florida at this point.  Or North Carolina or Arizona for that matter.

Speaking of Arizona, I assume the SoS site results have been updated today by now, and Sinema's still up by almost 33 thousand.  Looking like a pretty safe bet at this point.

[Zorral]

Climate catastrophe is going to drastically alter everything -- not just political systems -- very soon, as it already has in so many places.  If California is entirely burned over, for instance, with the southern Atlantic coastal states, the gulf coastal states including Florida going under from endless hurricane, sea level rise and pollution assaults -- their economies are going to be totally in the toilet.  Also, as people are starting to comprehend in California -- where are all these burned out people going to live, be housed, after losing everything: home, jobs and community?

 

[ThinkerX]

I was under the impression Beto ruled out a 2020 presidential run.

That said, I suspect that Trump's health issues are far worse than advertised, and he is likely to be either dead or incapacitated come 2020.  I mean, the guy ticks off almost all the boxes for 'heart attack looking for a place to happen.' 

[DMC]

I don't want to even begin to contemplate the right's reaction to Trump dieing due to health issues.  He will have been killed by everyone from Ted Cruz to the great other.

[Centrist Simon Steele]

4 hours ago, mormont said:

I thought she was 29? Which would make her eligible from 2024?

You think Bernie is a problem, Cortez is really divisive. I think she's great, but she has conservatives (those who went from Trump to Obama) pretty riled up. We'll see, but I think at least for now, she is one of the targets of Fox News labeled as "the dangerous new wing of the left" or whatever. Maybe America's values will dramatically shift by 2024--and I don't mean that sarcastically. We went from Obama to Trump. Maybe we can rebound again. But if she is running in 2024, that (most likely) means Trump wins in 2020. 

[The Marquis de Leech]

1 hour ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

Forget Florida. It's now ruby red. The rest of the south isn't flipping, either. 

Florida is many things, but it is not ruby red. Especially with Amendment 4 passing.

[Centrist Simon Steele]

3 hours ago, The Great Unwashed said:

I would say yeah, it's fucking absurd, but apparently even handicapping 2020 candidates without first consulting your Intersectionality Chart makes you bigoted, or something, so why the fuck not?

I keep seeing you bring up this idea that saying you like a white man is a problem, but I haven't seen that brought up anywhere else. Beto is great, and I don't think anyone argues with that. I do think a lot of the democrats who run will be very diverse, and that's exciting, but it doesn't mean you'll be looked down on for liking a white male candidate.

Then again...I got called some nasty things by democrat friends when I was rooting for Bernie in the primaries. Mostly sexist, but I don't think the white part stood out too much. Just saying, I don't think it's that big of a deal. As long as a bad candidate isn't rammed down our throats.

[The Marquis de Leech]

I definitely agree that the Beto-for-President thing is overblown. He'd make a good VP option, but a failed Senate run and three terms in the House does not strike me as a great resume for the top role. Maybe give him some time, let him actually hold a prominent office, before shunting him into a Presidential nomination?

Writing off Biden, Sanders, and Warren on age grounds is a bit odd given that Trump himself will be 74 on election day 2020. 

[Week]

10 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

Then again...I got called some nasty things by democrat friends when I was rooting for Bernie in the primaries. Mostly sexist, but I don't think the white part stood out too much. Just saying, I don't think it's that big of a deal. As long as a bad candidate isn't rammed down our throats.

Sigh, like I (and plenty of others) would have felt had Bernie won. Seriously, give it a rest with the re-litigation of the 2016 primary. It's over and done with.

[Gone and Quite Forgotten]

8 minutes ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

I definitely agree that the Beto-for-President thing is overblown. He'd make a good VP option, but a failed Senate run and three terms in the House does not strike me as a great resume for the top role. Maybe give him some time, let him actually hold a prominent office, before shunting him into a Presidential nomination?

Both parties have seen a lot of presumed nominees come and go because they followed the conventional wisdom and waited until their chance was gone. Chris Christie, Paul Ryan...Elizabeth Warren had a better chance in 2016 than she'll have in 2020. IIRC Everyone said Obama was too fresh when he ran, but he seized his chance and he won. Beto would have an uphill battle, but there's a better than average chance that he's never going to have as much national attention as he's got right now.

[ThinkerX]

9 minutes ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

Writing off Biden, Sanders, and Warren on age grounds is a bit odd given that Trump himself will be 74 on election day 2020. 

That is kind of the point.  The thing that struck me about the 2016 race for POTUS was just how old the serious contenders were.  That never sat right.

 

[Fez]

2 hours ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

Forget Florida. It's now ruby red. The rest of the south isn't flipping, either. 

A state where Democrats (probably) lost a senate race by 0.15% is not ruby red. Likewise, a state where a Democrat can win statewide in a normal election (the Democratic Ag Commissioner candidate has apparently won by 0.06%) is not ruby red.

It is redder than the nation as a whole, and is not part of the easiest path to 270 electoral votes, but it is not a lost cause.

Also, it would political malpractice to not at least force Republicans to spend funds defending the state.

[Martell Spy]

9 minutes ago, Fez said:

A state where Democrats (probably) lost a senate race by 0.15% is not ruby red. Likewise, a state where a Democrat can win statewide in a normal election (the Democratic Ag Commissioner candidate has apparently won by 0.06%) is not ruby red.

It is redder than the nation as a whole, and is not part of the easiest path to 270 electoral votes, but it is not a lost cause.

Also, it would political malpractice to not at least force Republicans to spend funds defending the state.

Well, we would lose house seats if we did not compete. Exciting canidates for big offices that lost still had coattails. Some Democrats are being ridiculous because we had some bad luck on narrow contests.

[Guest]

52 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

I keep seeing you bring up this idea that saying you like a white man is a problem, but I haven't seen that brought up anywhere else. Beto is great, and I don't think anyone argues with that. I do think a lot of the democrats who run will be very diverse, and that's exciting, but it doesn't mean you'll be looked down on for liking a white male candidate.

Then again...I got called some nasty things by democrat friends when I was rooting for Bernie in the primaries. Mostly sexist, but I don't think the white part stood out too much. Just saying, I don't think it's that big of a deal. As long as a bad candidate isn't rammed down our throats.

The bolded part. I know a lot of people on this board were throwing around the "Bernie-bro" slur with abandon because people weren't rushing to jump on the Clinton bandwagon.

Now, you're already seeing people in this thread saying that other people in this thread, even people who pay a lot of attention to politics I might add, are only liking Beto because of bias or bigotry or what the fuck ever. So yeah, I'm pretty sure if Beto runs in 2020, then "Beto-bro" will become a thing pretty damn quick.