Rhom Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 @S John closed us out with some good food for thought Quote Committee really is terrible. I almost wish we'd just go straight computer modelling because there is a definite stink of bias coming off the committee. Or we could just expand to 8, power 5 conf champ gets in, and the old fogeys can sit around debating who gets the 3 at-large spots. I really don't like that idea. I know that 4 isn't perfect, but college football is unique in the sports in that the regular season really does matter. In your model, LSU would still be getting in... and I don't believe they have any business playing for a national title. Alabama could lose the next two games (minus their cupcake) and still comfortably get in. Where's the excitement in that? And when you say conference champs, what if the unthinkable happened and currently 5-4 Pittsburgh caught Clemson napping in the ACC title game. Does Pitt deserve to be in the playoffs? Ditto 5-4 Northwestern versus Michigan. Even as a fan of the SEC, I will concede that I think each conference should have only one representative in the playoffs; but that has its drawbacks too. There's not a great way to make it "fair" while also keeping the sport special in the regular season like it currently is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S John Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Rhom said: @S John closed us out with some good food for thought I really don't like that idea. I know that 4 isn't perfect, but college football is unique in the sports in that the regular season really does matter. In your model, LSU would still be getting in... and I don't believe they have any business playing for a national title. Alabama could lose the next two games (minus their cupcake) and still comfortably get in. Where's the excitement in that? And when you say conference champs, what if the unthinkable happened and currently 5-4 Pittsburgh caught Clemson napping in the ACC title game. Does Pitt deserve to be in the playoffs? Ditto 5-4 Northwestern versus Michigan. Even as a fan of the SEC, I will concede that I think each conference should have only one representative in the playoffs; but that has its drawbacks too. There's not a great way to make it "fair" while also keeping the sport special in the regular season like it currently is. Ah, but I think your SEC colored glasses are one major reason why you are OK with 4. The SEC will always be represented. Effectively y'all already have an auto-bid. There are not enough cross-conference data points to fairly compare the Power 5 conferences. You get a few head to head match-ups at the beginning and end of each season, and then we extrapolate like crazy from there. I don't think we really know how the conferences truly stack up outside of the elite teams in each one. And we never have, which makes judging strength of schedule and therefore those who are championship quality so much more difficult. I personally don't think expanding to 8 diminishes the regular season at all. It's no easy feat to win any of the P5 conferences. It might also encourage more high profile match ups if losing an OOC game or two is not completely devastating to end-of-year goals. Fair enough on the conference champ game though, but I think you can easily include a caveat that they need to be conference champs AND in the top 10 or 15 or something to secure the auto-bid. Like the auto-bid is there for the taking, but your conference champ has to reach a certain threshold or the slot reverts to at-large. Going back to 1979 in basketball (which is the farthest back I can readily find seeding info), there have been 16 teams who have won the tournament from outside of the top 4 (#1) seeds. If my calculations are correct that means 42% of the champs have been from outside the top 4. That team has been Kentucky at least once too, btw! (1988) I also count 24 times that non #1 seeds actually made the final game but didn't win. That's 63% of the time! My point is, most of the time they are going to get it right with the top 4, but there is always going to be a team with a good argument sitting around at 5, 6, 7 and a lot of times it is kind of arbitrary who is where. There's recency bias, there's blue blood bias, there's started the year ranked higher for no reason bias. A lot of bullshit reasons a real contender could be kept out. I'm much less sympathetic toward the #9 team not getting a shot than the #5 team. My bet is that most years whoever is sitting at #5, #6 - is also a contender to win it all. So we should take the human element out of it and settle it on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronn Stone Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 My dream is to have seven conference champions and the 8th slot reserved for either an independent or a team that did NOT play in its Conference Championship game. And a requirement that every conference have one. That way, you effectively have a 15-team playoff with 14 of them decided on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronn Stone Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 3 hours ago, Rhom said: @S John closed us out with some good food for thought I really don't like that idea. I know that 4 isn't perfect, but college football is unique in the sports in that the regular season really does matter. All that matters about the regular season in the current model is that cowardice in scheduling is rewarded as long as a conference has a reputation. Alabama hasn't scheduled a non-conference game in the home stadium of a power-five conference team in recent memory. They play a minimum of 3 teams outside the power 5 and those teams are generally WAY outside the power five. USC plays 10 or 11 power 5 games every year, including at least 5 on the road. Yet tie in record ALWAYS goes to Alabama, no matter who they are compared to. USC would never get credit for their far more brutal schedule. The regular season RECORD matters. Some teams set their schedules to avoid road games, to avoid long stretches of games against top-tier competition. Yet get zero credit when it comes to the end of the season and they are matched up with teams with similar records who don't play these games with their schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhom Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 Murray State just took a knee on the extra point with three seconds remaining up two... Didn’t want to risk blocked xp returned for two. Never seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S John Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 I didn’t see it but my buddy texted me that MSU took a safety on purpose rather than risk OSU blocking a punt? I need to find a clip of this, but I think that might be the saddest thing I’ve ever heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbunting Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 3 hours ago, Rhom said: Murray State just took a knee on the extra point with three seconds remaining up two... Didn’t want to risk blocked xp returned for two. Never seen that before. Suspicious me wonders what the betting line was....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbunting Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 3 hours ago, S John said: I didn’t see it but my buddy texted me that MSU took a safety on purpose rather than risk OSU blocking a punt? I need to find a clip of this, but I think that might be the saddest thing I’ve ever heard. How about when Philly had their QB punt on against Giants in the late 80's early 90's? Did to catch Giants off guard, Randal Cunningham kicked it and it went like 91 yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingintheNorth4 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Northwestern has punched it's ticket to Indianapolis. I don't believe it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarGalley Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 20 minutes ago, KingintheNorth4 said: Northwestern has punched it's ticket to Indianapolis. I don't believe it.... Woot!! First Big 10 West title! I'm hoping we face Michigan over OSU for the championship game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramsay B. Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 4 hours ago, Rhom said: Murray State just took a knee on the extra point with three seconds remaining up two... Didn’t want to risk blocked xp returned for two. Never seen that before. Smart tactic. What about the fact that they came back from 31-0 and won on a last second kickoff return!! ETA: As the announcer said, that’s the FSU season in a nutshell. Blocked xp and 2 points for ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhom Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 1 hour ago, dbunting said: Suspicious me wonders what the betting line was....? SEMO was 7-2. Murray 5-4. So I’m guessing that SEMO was favored by a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbunting Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 20 hours ago, Ramsay B. said: Smart tactic. What about the fact that they came back from 31-0 and won on a last second kickoff return!! ETA: As the announcer said, that’s the FSU season in a nutshell. Blocked xp and 2 points for ND. Yeah, helluva coincidence, I was here reading about it and just a little later turned on the game and saw it happen. Was like, ok, it was a smart thing to do in kneeling on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Hmm. Disappointed to see that Army didn't quite break into the Top 25 this week. They've had a really good season and their blowout win over Buffalo is basically the only blemish on our record; I'd feel better if that loss was to a more highly considered team. Buffalo itself also got some votes, though not too many. Which is fair, there's just too large a talent gap between Buffalo and actually good teams. Still, 9-1 is 9-1 and most of those wins were not close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhom Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 Do not go quietly into that good night!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbunting Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, Rhom said: Do not go quietly into that good night!!! Ouch....talk about burning any bridges that may have remained! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S John Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 I would bet my house he was drunk when he wrote those tweets. In for an extra shitty hangover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokisnow Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 On 11/9/2018 at 10:24 AM, Rhom said: @S John closed us out with some good food for thought I really don't like that idea. I know that 4 isn't perfect, but college football is unique in the sports in that the regular season really does matter. In your model, LSU would still be getting in... and I don't believe they have any business playing for a national title. Alabama could lose the next two games (minus their cupcake) and still comfortably get in. Where's the excitement in that? And when you say conference champs, what if the unthinkable happened and currently 5-4 Pittsburgh caught Clemson napping in the ACC title game. Does Pitt deserve to be in the playoffs? Ditto 5-4 Northwestern versus Michigan. Even as a fan of the SEC, I will concede that I think each conference should have only one representative in the playoffs; but that has its drawbacks too. There's not a great way to make it "fair" while also keeping the sport special in the regular season like it currently is. The problem with pure computer rankings is they build in human biases and preferences by default, and getting them unbiased is not something anyone who has a stake in bowl game attendance wants to have happen. So even if we went to a computer system the system used would be a system designed to maximize bowl revenue and it would not be parsing the data fairly. On the other hand the committee exists primarily to maximize bowl revenue (such as Kansas getting a bcs bowl over Missouri after losing to Missouri with the official rationale being that Kansas basketball wins more games so they assumed that Kansas getting the bcs bowl would generate more bowl revenue). So computers that maximize revenue are not especially different from a committee that exists to maximize revenue. We won’t have a decent post season until the entire vile bowl system has been burnt to the ground and permanently eradicated as it so very much deserves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbunting Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 IDK, I think we currently have a pretty good system. Is it better than the old bowl system where the top teams were simply voted as a champion, hell yes. The system as it stands generally gets the top 4 teams right. Of course there is always a fan base that feels like they got screwed but for the most part the teams in it are the right ones. My biggest gripe with the existing system is the huge gap in time between the last game played and when the "playoffs" start. I would definitely be all for a 8 team playoff, but nothing more than that. The NCAA basketball tourney was 64 freaking teams and people still bitched about being left out so now there's what 68 teams? Have to draw the line somewhere and for me it's an absolute max of 8 teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokisnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I never pick against my team but it seems incredibly unlikely that USC will defeat UCLA on Saturday, given they will also lose to Notre Dame in two weeks, this will give them a final record of 5-7, missing a bowl. i imagine that Clay Helton will be fired, which is a bit of shame as it is a rebuilding year, on the other hand their play has been putrid across the board even in four of their wins. Helton’s biggest advantage is that he is beloved by the donors that control everything. But putrid is putrid, at least UCLA has shown improvement. so even still losing to all three California teams and Notre Dame and misssing a bowl and not being able to call a rushing play all adds up to a Firing in my mind. I think since Helton is so beloved and we are probably missing a bowl, there’s no rush to fire him until after the Notre Dame loss. so who does that leave for coaching search, obviously not kiffin. Jeff Tedford can interface with donors and knows west coast recruiting. Might even keep Clancy Pendergast. Matt Campbell is probably the best option from the current crop of overachieving coaches and since there are only two big teams in the Big 12, and neither Texas nor Oklahoma would ever be hiring him there is probably no risk of him using USC as a stepping stone back to his native soil. But can Matt Campbell make the donors feel special the bestest? If he can’t do that he probably won’t be allowed to succeed at usc. most SEC coaches and assistants are no good because they’ll all stepping stone out of the PAC back to the south as soon as Saban retires. The exception would be Les Miles or Bo Pelini, but both of them are incapable of doing all the schmoozing and asskissing of donors that’s required of a USC head coach. Ryan Day will probably be a top target, but if Urban retires, he’s got the Ohio state job locked up. Also Ryan day would absolutely stepping stone USC back to Ohio state if urban tries to gut out one or two more seasons, so he’s a high risk hire. The same thing would be true of trying to poach from the Clemson tree, any of them are probably likely to bolt back to the other coast in a year or two. thats probably it for college possibilities, and I know nothing of the NFL, but I imagine USC will concentrate its focus on hiring from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.