US Politics: Paradise Lost

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

39 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Does it scare you more than Trump having few checks and balances?

No.  I simply take everyone’s talk of civil war seriously.

[Altherion]

9 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Bill Nelson Concedes Florida Senate Race to Gov. Rick Scott

https://www.thedailybeast.com/florida-gov-rick-scott-on-track-to-unseat-sen-bill-nelson?ref=home

This was expected, but it officially marks this as a rare midterm election in which the President's party actually gained seats in the Senate. In modern political history (i.e. since FDR), this has previously happened only 5 times out of the 21 elections: in 1934 (under FDR), in 1962 (under JFK), in 1970 (under Nixon), in 1982 (under Reagan) and in 2002 (under G.W. Bush). Only in 1934 and in 2002 did the Senate gains coincide with House gains (presumably because those elections followed on the heels of the Great Depression and 9/11 respectively). And in 1998, the Democrats under Clinton neither lost nor gained seats in the Senate, but they did gain 5 seats in the House.

So the Congressional election is pretty weird for a midterm: the one with the most similar results (large losses in the House, but gains in the Senate for the Presidential party) is in 1982, but the causes are rather different. I wonder if Trump will have an easier time with his appointees now that there's a higher margin and fewer Senator such as Flake and McCain.

[Fragile Bird]

19 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

White Women Who Vote GOP Aren’t ‘Voting Against Their Own Interests’

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/opinion-white-women-gop-midterms-white-supremacy_us_5bef0f98e4b0b84243e23e3b

I always have this picture in my mind of black children being escorted to and from school, surrounded by white women with faces twisted by hate.

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, Wethers said:

I’m thinking KB meant that the thing that’s scary is that most states aren’t overwhelmingly Democratic given the state of the Republican Party.  

Yep, this. 

[Fragile Bird]

More shit from Trump.

He got told about the murder tape at the Saudi embassy, he didn’t need to listen to it. Besides, the Prince told him 5 different times he had nothing to do with it.

And besides, the Saudis are a super ally, a fantastic ally, all those jobs and stuff.

Unlike, say, Canada, a shitty ally that doesn’t create any jobs in the US and is such a bad ally it needs to have steel and aluminum tariffs put on it for national security reasons. And ii responsible for US farmers committing suicide.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Just now, Fragile Bird said:

He got told about the murder tape at the Saudi embassy, he didn’t need to listen to it. Besides, the Prince told him 5 different times he had nothing to do with it.

TBF, the moral void on display there isn't exclusive to the US. That's the entire west. The rational being: Saudi Arabia is the stabilizing factor in the middle east. And it's not like Mohammed bin Salman has to fear any domestic opposition (those are jailed by now anyway). And Kashoggi is simply not worth the stability of the region. E.g. France is heavily opposed to a weapon embargo, because it has nothing to do with the Kashoggi murder.

How much of a stabilizing factor Saudi Arabia is to the region (*cough*, Yemen, *cough*), that is not for me to judge.

On another note, I am still not over the fact, that Erdogan of all people gets to talk about protection of journalists.

[Altherion]

So it look like the new Democrats aren't wasting any time:

Quote

“Long story short, I need you to run for office,” Ocasio-Cortez began her remarks. “We all need to run at all levels of government, but I really hope that many of you join me here in Congress.”

Justice Democrats recruited Ocasio-Cortez to run and played a key role in her upset of Rep. Joe Crowley, a House power-broker, in New York’s Democratic primary in June. Ocasio-Cortez then easily won the seat Crowley has held since 1999 in this month’s general election. 

The group is calling its new campaign OurTime. The initiative asks Justice Democrats’ army of activists to help identify Democratic House incumbents who are “demographically and ideologically out-of-touch with their districts,” and identify people who might make good primary challengers to them.

It'll be interesting to see how much they can accomplish.

[Mexal]

19 minutes ago, Altherion said:

So it look like the new Democrats aren't wasting any time:

It'll be interesting to see how much they can accomplish.

Given most of those she and Bernie endorsed lost, I'm not going to lose any sleep over it. I just wish the media would stop making it into a bigger deal than it into a story.

[DireWolfSpirit]

6 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

TBF, the moral void on display there isn't exclusive to the US. That's the entire west. The rational being: Saudi Arabia is the stabilizing factor in the middle east. And it's not like Mohammed bin Salman has to fear any domestic opposition (those are jailed by now anyway). And Kashoggi is simply not worth the stability of the region. E.g. France is heavily opposed to a weapon embargo, because it has nothing to do with the Kashoggi murder.

How much of a stabilizing factor Saudi Arabia is to the region (*cough*, Yemen, *cough*), that is not for me to judge.

On another note, I am still not over the fact, that Erdogan of all people gets to talk about protection of journalists.

Im sorry this journalist was murdered, im sorry for his family. But I have to agree with the France position that an arms embargo has nothing to do with Kashoggi's murder. I believe the U.S. will only be harming themselves were they to broaden sanctions on the Saudi govt from the current sanctions of the individual Saudi's announced.

Im sorry the man was murderered, condolences to his loved ones. But how does layoffs in our already long suffering industrial sectors and over $4 a gallon gas provide any justice to this tragedy? Sanctions against the Saudi's will bring pain to middle class Americans before it affects the 100 times over billionaire Royal Saudi's.

[Horza]

2 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Im sorry this journalist was murdered, im sorry for his family. But I have to agree with the France position that an arms embargo has nothing to do with Kashoggi's murder. I believe the U.S. will only be harming themselves were they to broaden sanctions on the Saudi govt from the current sanctions of the individual Saudi's announced.

Im sorry the man was murderered, condolences to his loved ones. But how does layoffs in our already long suffering industrial sectors and over $4 a gallon gas provide any justice to this tragedy? Sanctions against the Saudi's will bring pain to middle class Americans before it affects the 100 times over billionaire Royal Saudi's.

Is this a joke post or are you really endorsing a war that has millions of on the brink of starvation because it brings defence industry jobs?

[DireWolfSpirit]

1 hour ago, Horza said:

Is this a joke post or are you really endorsing a war that has millions of on the brink of starvation because it brings defence industry jobs?

I was alluding to sanctions over the Kashoggi murder, the humanitarian crisis in Yemen is a legitimate, seperate concern.

But the kinds of weapon systems, ships, planes that are part of the current arms deal with the Saudis will only come online well into the 2020's, it takes years to produce some of these items. And those planes, ships, etc. are more likely to be in Saudi hands after the Yemen conflict is already settled, they are planning peace talks currently.

The Saudis are going to replenish their military with contracts through one countries defense industry or anothers. They have struck an arms deal with the U.S. I am against leaving that money on the table. And I dont think turning our backs on Saudi investment either helps the U.S. or affects the Yemen war ending any earlier.

Additionally we are dependant on staying allied wth the Saudi's because they can hurt our economy due to our energy dependance, we are in no position to bully them through sanctions.

[Larry of the Lawn]

3 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

I was alluding to sanctions over the Kashoggi murder, the humanitarian crisis in Yemen is a legitimate, seperate concern.

But the kinds of weapon systems, ships, planes that are part of the current arms deal with the Saudis will only come online well into the 2020's, it takes years to produce some of these items. And those planes, ships, etc. are more likely to be in Saudi hands after the Yemen conflict is already settled, they are planning peace talks currently.

The Saudis are going to replenish their military with contracts through one countries defense industry or anothers. They have struck an arms deal with the U.S. I am against leaving that money on the table. And I dont think turning our backs on Saudi investment either helps the U.S. or affects the Yemen war ending any earlier.

Additionally we are dependant on staying allied wth the Saudi's because they can hurt our economy due to our energy dependance, we are in no position to bully them through sanctions.

Pretty sure we're not that dependant on them anymore.  I for one would be happy to pay $4 a gallon to know I'm not contributing to starvation and random bombing of civilians in Yemen.  Or helping out the Saudis in any way.

[DireWolfSpirit]

22 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Pretty sure we're not that dependant on them anymore.  I for one would be happy to pay $4 a gallon to know I'm not contributing to starvation and random bombing of civilians in Yemen.  Or helping out the Saudis in any way.

My view is they help us out when they make investments into our economy, not so much that were helping them. Its not just the defense industry that has benefitted from Saudi money either, they pumped billions into places like the City Center development on the Vegas strip.

[Larry of the Lawn]

23 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

My view is they help us out when they make investments into our economy, not so much that were helping them. Its not just the defense industry that has benefitted from Saudi money either, they pumped billions into places like the City Center development on the Vegas strip.

Ok.  But is that worth being involved in Yemen because we are allied with SA?  Especially considering their human rights record, it's about time we create some distance and cool down this relationship.   Hard to believe we can't find another way to make money or boost the economy without SA.   

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

35 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Ok.  But is that worth being involved in Yemen because we are allied with SA?  Especially considering their human rights record, it's about time we create some distance and cool down this relationship.   Hard to believe we can't find another way to make money or boost the economy without SA.   

 

If you think the U.S. putting sanctions on Saudi Arabia will save lives in Yemen then you would have no choice but to support those sanctions.

However I do not think that it would play out that way. I think they (S.A.) would simply buy the weapons elsewhere and they would probably retaliate against sanctions with punitive actions of their own.

Hopefully the Yemen war will end as soon as possible, as I mentioned earlier they are trying to organize peace talks at this very moment.

[Rippounet]

34 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

If you think the U.S. putting sanctions on Saudi Arabia will save lives in Yemen then you would have no choice but to support those sanctions.

However I do not think that it would play out that way. I think they (S.A.) would simply buy the weapons elsewhere and they would probably retaliate against sanctions with punitive actions of their own.

Hopefully the Yemen war will end as soon as possible, as I mentioned earlier they are trying to organize peace talks at this very moment.

Yeah, I'm sure there'll be tons of people to send thoughts and prayers to them.

Anyway, things to think about...

The thing about the US is that it is -still- the one and only country that can not only put sanctions on a country (or implement a weapons embargo) but also force other countries to respect said sanctions or weapons embargo. Of course, it's never full-proof, especially with China and Russia these days, but the US can seriously hurt another country if it chooses to (see: Iran).
And sure, as I'm always the first to point out, it's been a rare occurrence when the US has actually acted against one of its longtime allies for purely moral reasons. Most of the time, targets of US sanctions will be relatively weak countries, and generally ones that do not agree with the US-led new-world-order/pax americana to begin with. But even grumblings and threats go a long way, and in the past these have served to maintain some kind of illusion of morality on the world stage (though not constantly or consistently).
Cometh Trump, and all illusion of morality is vanished. So what? will many people ask, it's not like illusions matter in realpolitik. But as it turns out, illusions do matter a great deal for the Khashoggis of the world. As long as everyone is pretending to be virtuous, some lines are not crossed. When pretense erodes, so the lines move. And this is a big part of what we call US "soft power" with its ebbs and flows.

Saudi Arabia has never been an exemplary country, morally speaking. And its power over the US was blatant under W.
But you're sorely mistaken if you think the US can't stop what's happening in Yemen and/or stop weapons from arriving in Saudi Arabia. It would be tough and costly, for sure, but it could be done. That the US doesn't even try, or pretend to try, is devastating. And since you're another one of them nationalists, I'm saying it doesn't just kill Yemenis, it also cripples US soft power. What will happen the next time the US wants its "allies" to implement sanctions against another country? Other world leaders will ask why, and how much. The EU, despite its pathetic meakness, has already timidly moved against the US on Iran. It could be nothing, or it could be a sign that Trump is in fact doing a great deal of damage to the US.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

The evidence for sanctions actually being effective at making foreign governments change their behavior is rather scant, though. 

[Larry of the Lawn]

7 minutes ago, Khaleesi did nothing wrong said:

The evidence for sanctions actually being effective at making foreign governments change their behavior is rather scant, though. 

So... What's the alternative?  Be complicit with malefactors for profit?  Just throw our hands up and say "if you can't beat em, join em"?

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

14 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

So... What's the alternative?  Be complicit with malefactors for profit?  Just throw our hands up and say "if you can't beat em, join em"?

Well, supporting the peace talks is a good idea of course. Other than that, once the world seriously starts transitioning away from oil as a fuel source (which is hopefully quite soon) Saudi Arabia is going to be put in a very difficult position, and also not have much leverage over the USA or the rest of the developed world any longer. 

[Maithanet]

This 538 article really clarifies that the Democrats did quite well in the Senate, the map was just so bad that losing seats was almost inevitable.  The "Path" to the Senate majority for Democrats in 2018 was:

1. Win all 21 races in states with a partisan lean of R+9 or less.  Instead they could only pull off 20 of 21.

2. Win at least 5 of the 12 Senate seats up in states with a partisan lean between R+15 and R+47.  Democrats could only manage to win 2 of them.

Both of those are really hard, but the second one in particular is virtually impossible.  The partisan lean for the House looks like its going to be ~D+8.5.  If the margin was increased by 5 points nationwide, to an unprecidented D+13.5, Democrats still wouldn't have taken the Senate.  They would have won Florida and Texas and it would be a 50-50 split, with Pence casting the deciding vote.

The Democrats were never going to take the Senate.  If anything, it just makes it more amazing that they were able to win the MO, ND, MT, WV and IN seats in a relatively competitive year like 2012.