US Politics: Paradise Lost

[lokisnow]

40 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I don't think that 97% could possibly be right, just given that some voters die, others enter the electorate, and many voters fail to show up both times.  If you mean that among people who voted in both elections, Obama won 97% of his 2008 voters in 2012, that sounds reasonable. 

Typically this is true, although it is quite possible we're seeing a realignment where college educated suburbanites are fleeing the Republican party.  There are definitely a few districts in MI, WI and PA where that's a big problem. 

Democrats weren't even close to their ceiling in 2016.  Even matching Obama's 2008 performance would have been plenty to win in 2016, and a good candidate could easily exceed that mark.  In contrast, Trump has little potential to bring in new voters.  In 2016, he traded some suburban white voters for increasing the share of rural white voters in places like PA, FL and WI, and that worked (barely).  I expect that trend will continue, but at some point, you can't really increase your share of white rural voters that much because there simply aren't that many white voters left, and those that remain are very politically unmotivated.

Republicans share of the rurals is so dangerous because it’s the key to their victories across the board. They have a three part strategy:

1: increase republican share of rural vote (an average of a +50,000 margin per 100,000 votes in 2016 and 2018) with white ethno nationalism

2: decrease minority turnout with targeted voter suppression

3: fight a rear guard action in the suburbs. Even if they lose the suburbs, the gigantic insane margins democrats allow in the rurals are generally sufficient to stave off any democrat gains in the suburbs. 

This means democrats have to counter each of these strategies to effectively win elections:

1: decrease republican share of rurals with a rural heavy green new deal

2: increase minority turnout and democrat share of the minority vote.

3: fight an aggressive suburban campaign to increase republican losses there.

Winning a million suburbs votes by +3 is insufficient to offset the losses  from just 100,000 rural votes.

If democrats can’t move the needle in the suburbs they need to radically increase youth voting and turnout. Otherwise they’re dead and the rural vote share strategy the republicans have been employing will continue to yield enormous power for them.

one single strategy from the democrats will not win them 2020.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

SHOCKER!!!:

Quote

WASHINGTON — President Trump told the White House counsel in the spring that he wanted to order the Justice Department to prosecute two of his political adversaries: his 2016 challenger, Hillary Clinton, and the former F.B.I. director James B. Comey, according to two people familiar with the conversation.

The lawyer, Donald F. McGahn II, rebuffed the president, saying that he had no authority to order a prosecution. Mr. McGahn said that while he could request an investigation, that too could prompt accusations of abuse of power. To underscore his point, Mr. McGahn had White House lawyers write a memo for Mr. Trump warning that if he asked law enforcement to investigate his rivals, he could face a range of consequences, including possible impeachment.

The encounter was one of the most blatant examples yet of how Mr. Trump views the typically independent Justice Department as a tool to be wielded against his political enemies. It took on additional significance in recent weeks when Mr. McGahn left the White House and Mr. Trump appointed a relatively inexperienced political loyalist, Matthew G. Whitaker, as the acting attorney general.

It is unclear whether Mr. Trump read Mr. McGahn’s memo or whether he pursued the prosecutions further. But the president has continued to privately discuss the matter, including the possible appointment of a second special counsel to investigate both Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Comey, according to two people who have spoken to Mr. Trump about the issue. He has also repeatedly expressed disappointment in the F.B.I. director, Christopher A. Wray, for failing to more aggressively investigate Mrs. Clinton, calling him weak, one of the people said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/20/us/politics/president-trump-justice-department.html

[Week]

6 hours ago, S John said:

Seems like about 99% of people straight cis white men leave it at the door when they step outside of their home. 

FTFY -- not everyone has the privilege of leaving this shit at the door. Women, minorities, LGBTQIA+, etc. receive wonderful reminders from the noxious elements of the country that polarization is a problem that is a particular threat from one side and not both.

[Zorral]

42 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

Republicans share of the rurals is so dangerous because it’s the key to their victories across the board. They have a three part strategy:

1: increase republican share of rural vote (an average of a +50,000 margin per 100,000 votes in 2016 and 2018) with white ethno nationalism

2: decrease minority turnout with targeted voter suppression

3: fight a rear guard action in the suburbs. Even if they lose the suburbs, the gigantic insane margins democrats allow in the rurals are generally sufficient to stave off any democrat gains in the suburbs. 

This means democrats have to counter each of these strategies to effectively win elections:

1: decrease republican share of rurals with a rural heavy green new deal

2: increase minority turnout and democrat share of the minority vote.

3: fight an aggressive suburban campaign to increase republican losses there.

Winning a million suburbs votes by +3 is insufficient to offset the losses  from just 100,000 rural votes.

If democrats can’t move the needle in the suburbs they need to radically increase youth voting and turnout. Otherwise they’re dead and the rural vote share strategy the republicans have been employing will continue to yield enormous power for them.

one single strategy from the democrats will not win them 2020.

What the rethugs and orange nazi are wanting to do with the Agricultural Bill is going to send them all away.  Especially as the biggest market by far for their products has been declared war upon tariff-wise and China isn't buying any of it.  This includes just about everything from nuts and berries (yes, really, just starting with pecans and cherries) to rice, soybeans, pork and corn.  Worse, they want to get rid of the government supported food safety programs like SNAP that in many ways hold up prices for ag products here in the USA.  Worse even that that, they want to get rid of other agricultural subsidy programs that have been in places since the Great Depression.  And even worse that that -- they want the Ag Bill to be revisited, redebated, revised and voted on every 6 months instead of every 6 years.  Talk about destabilizing everything food related . . . .

[S John]

1 minute ago, Week said:

FTFY -- not everyone has the privilege of leaving this shit at the door. Women, minorities, LGBTQIA+, etc. receive wonderful reminders from the noxious elements of the country that polarization is a problem that is a particular threat from one side and not both.

While that may be so, my post was in reference to the conversation on how close we are to full blown Civil War (we're not) and the disconnect between the level of online rhetoric and the level of chaos in the streets where people are face to face.   There's bad things going on, yes, but it isn't the war zone out there that it'd be easy to believe if one were only engaged online.  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

Overall, I might be in favour of the French solution to Princesses

Fool!!! Do you not remember the words of Rudy the Wise? It's wrong to take action against the princess! She must be spared. However, there was the suggestion that Dark Templar Mueller could go after the princes, or at least the one without a blood relation. I will further inform ye' when my next scroll arrives. 

[Martell Spy]

Yep, the Department of Education is actively trying to harm student debtors. 

 

Quote

 

One of the nation’s largest student loan servicing companies may have driven tens of thousands of borrowers struggling with their debts into higher-cost repayment plans.

That’s the finding of a Department of Education audit of practices at Navient Corp., the nation’s third-largest student loan servicing company.

The conclusions of the 2017 audit, which until now have been kept from the public and were obtained by The Associated Press, appear to support federal and state lawsuits that accuse Navient of boosting its profits by steering some borrowers into the high-cost plans without discussing options that would have been less costly in the long run.

The education department has not shared the audit’s findings with the plaintiffs in the lawsuits. In fact, even while knowing of its conclusions, the department repeatedly argued that state and other federal authorities do not have jurisdiction over Navient’s business practices.

“The existence of this audit makes the Department of Education’s position all the more disturbing,” said Aaron Ament, president of the National Student Legal Defense Network, who worked for the Department of Education under President Barack Obama

 

.

AP Exclusive: Gov’t questions unfair student loan practices

https://www.apnews.com/eeebf667026a420c9893220215e542cb

[Week]

51 minutes ago, S John said:

While that may be so, my post was in reference to the conversation on how close we are to full blown Civil War (we're not) and the disconnect between the level of online rhetoric and the level of chaos in the streets where people are face to face.   There's bad things going on, yes, but it isn't the war zone out there that it'd be easy to believe if one were only engaged online.  

I would still posit that your assertion is incorrect. It is a "warzone"* for plenty of people that are conveniently ignored. Tell the folks who lost family and friends at the Tree of Life synagogue or Heather Heyer's family and friends or recipients of pipe bombs from Cesar Sayoc or etc. etc. that it isn't a "warzone". I work with a guy that is the treasurer for the largest synagogue in a small state -- they've had emergency meetings over the last several weeks to assess, size, and approve armed guards. Does that sound normal for a peaceable society?

 

*an unnecessarily overwrought strawman for you to refute. Which you do poorly.

[Larry of the Lawn]

55 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Yep, the Department of Education is actively trying to harm student debtors. 

 

.

AP Exclusive: Gov’t questions unfair student loan practices

https://www.apnews.com/eeebf667026a420c9893220215e542cb

Two or three years ago (right after Sallie Mae became navient or navient took over whatever) they told me that if I didn't refinance my debt I would be sued the next time I missed a payment.  I didn't refinance it then.  

 

They didn't right away, but a process server tried to deliver me something last week and I'm wondering if that's what it's about.  They also called me (missed it) and two relatives and left a number and a case number to respond to, which I've done several times but only get a recording.  I've left several messages.  

 

I also have another loan directly through my school (George Washington) and they have threatened to sue probably three times in the last 13 years.  

[Bonnot OG]

Everyone here should watch this. 
 

[Martell Spy]

29 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Two or three years ago (right after Sallie Mae became navient or navient took over whatever) they told me that if I didn't refinance my debt I would be sued the next time I missed a payment.  I didn't refinance it then.  

 

They didn't right away, but a process server tried to deliver me something last week and I'm wondering if that's what it's about.  They also called me (missed it) and two relatives and left a number and a case number to respond to, which I've done several times but only get a recording.  I've left several messages.  

 

I also have another loan directly through my school (George Washington) and they have threatened to sue probably three times in the last 13 years.  

Well, not to turn this thread into a financial advice thread, but I feel I have to say something here.  And I'm not sure if you are dealing with federal or private student loan debt. But I would strongly suggest researching and confronting your loans, and also looking into loan rehabilitation, which applies to federal student loan debt, can only be done once, and can be a big lifesaver for loans that are in default. I would also add, look into loan consolidation, since you have loans from multiple places, it may apply.

Dealing with these people is like dealing with loansharks. They will sue you at some point. They will also happily add large penalties and make the balances balloon. I've been through the experience of ignoring things and while I survived it, that is only because I did eventually confront it. And I saw how terrible it can get for people. 

BTW, if you are sued over federal student loans, it does not work like a regular law suit. There is a judge's order and they start taking money from your pay check or bank account every month. Much like if you owed money to some government agency.

[Martell Spy]

Quote

 

The FBI now classifies the far-right Proud Boys as an “extremist group with ties to white nationalism”, according to a document produced by Washington state law enforcement.

The FBI’s 2018 designation of the self-confessed “western chauvinist group” as extremist has not been previously made public.

 

FBI now classifies far-right Proud Boys as 'extremist group', documents say
Group is now designated ‘with ties to white nationalism’ according to report produced by Washington law enforcement

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/19/proud-boys-fbi-classification-extremist-group-white-nationalism-report
 

[Martell Spy]

Quote

 

The direct lobbying by Mr. Grassley was just part of a pressure campaign aimed squarely at Mr. McConnell this week as an unusual coalition of senators, conservative advocacy groups and White House officials press to change the nation’s sentencing and prison laws. With President Trump supportive of the effort and Speaker Paul D. Ryan pledging to move it through the House, they increasingly view the Senate majority leader as the lone obstacle to unwinding some of the federal tough-on-crime policies of the 1980s and 1990s.

The simple truth is that a blunt phone call from Donald Trump to McConnell insisting on a vote for the bill — and maybe additional calls to Cotton and Kennedy and other opponents, asking them to back off — would almost certainly do the trick. You have to figure that McConnell is protecting POTUS from something happening that he’s half-hearted about to begin with — as his reluctance to do anything about this legislation for the first two years of his presidency suggests.

Meanwhile, supporters of criminal-justice measures that are a lot more serious than this “First Step” legislation, including the Democrats who are about to take over the House, are probably feeling ambivalent about the enactment of a compromise that could kill momentum toward real reform.
At this point, it’s all in Trump’s hands, unless he chooses to pretend it’s in McConnell’s.

 

Will Mitch McConnell Stand Tall for the Lock-Em-All-Up Racists of His Party?

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/11/will-mcconnell-stand-tall-for-gops-lock-em-all-up-lobby.html

[Ordos]

3 more seats still to declare by the NY Times and one more Democratic pickup in Utah!

What's going on in New York with 2 seats still to be declared? The other one is in Georgia.

[Martell Spy]

Well looks like Pelosi won. And the Progressive caucus gained more power in the House.

[DanteGabriel]

10 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Well looks like Pelosi won. And the Progressive caucus gained more power in the House.

My own Congressman, Seth Moulton, was one of the leaders of the anti-Pelosi movement and made an ass of himself in this situation, and apparently heard about it in a town hall last night. Now there's talk about primarying him.

Disappointing. I had high hopes for him. He's got a great bio (Harvard, served as a Marine captain in Iraq) and he got my attention by bringing the Iraqi interpreter who'd worked with his unit, and sheltering him in his house in Massachusetts -- right when the Trump administration was refusing Syrian refugees and Don Jr passed on that ridiculous meme about poisoned Skittles.

But all I see from him is grandstanding and this dumb move where he wants to replace Pelosi but doesn't seem to have any ideas who might do a better job. Moulton's starting to reveal himself as an ambitious douche. I'll have to watch carefully,

[Fragile Bird]

On the topic of this thread title.

Apparently Trump did not know the name of the town. He was touring one of the burned areas and, according to the Guardian, said ‘Pleasure...what kind of a name is that?’

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

My own Congressman, Seth Moulton, was one of the leaders of the anti-Pelosi movement and made an ass of himself in this situation, and apparently heard about it in a town hall last night. Now there's talk about primarying him.

Moulton as your rep is pretty damn amusing.  The ideological distance between the two of you is fairly vast.  Then there's the fact that Seth Moulton is a charlatan.  That's gotta be a sore spot.

[DanteGabriel]

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

Moulton as your rep is pretty damn amusing.  The ideological distance between the two of you is fairly vast.  Then there's the fact that Seth Moulton is a charlatan.  That's gotta be a sore spot.

Before this I lived in Stephen Lynch's district, an anti-abortion Democrat (and another of the dump Pelosi contingent). But... "fairly vast"? I like most of Moulton's positions -- pro weed legalization, pro gun control, solid on abortion and LGBTQ rights. I liked that he could criticize Republican chickenhawkery from a position of actually having served and taken fire. He's studiously blank on economics, calls himself a "progressive" yet advertises himself as "pro growth" (usually a euphemism for corporate comforters).

But you're going to taunt me over my Congressman? How weirdly petty, even for you. Maybe you could just get loaded and pick another fight with Kal to get your jollies?

[DMC]

10 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

But you're going to taunt me over my Congressman? How weirdly petty, even for you.

That wasn't meant to taunt you.  Just the opposite.