Chaos of Conspiracy

[Curled Finger]

The Brotherhood Without Banners originated with a fairly powerful, certainly reputable Lord and retinue united with Northmen as well as a tourney hero to bring Greggor Clegane to justice.   They are ambushed and seriously decimated by the Lannisters.  It's probable that with the good word of Lords Vance, Piper and Darry, Dondarion's group was widely perceived as saviors in the Riverlands.   The Lannisters made sure to publicize the brutality of that massacre--their leaders' death a particular point of pride.   Beric tells Arya how those brave noble men became a group of vigilantes, the BWB.   

"When we left King's Landing we were men of Winterfell and men of Darry and men of Blackhaven, Mallery men and Wylde men. We were knights and squires and men-at-arms, lords and commoners, bound together only by our purpose." The voice came from the man seated amongst the weirwood roots halfway up the wall. "Six score of us set out to bring the king's justice to your brother." The speaker was descending the tangle of steps toward the floor. "Six score brave men and true, led by a fool in a starry cloak." A scarecrow of a man, he wore a ragged black cloak speckled with stars and an iron breastplate dinted by a hundred battles. A thicket of red-gold hair hid most of his face, save for a bald spot above his left ear where his head had been smashed in. "More than eighty of our company are dead now, but others have taken up the swords that fell from their hands."   ASOS Arya VI

Note they set out on quest with 120 lords, noblemen, men at arms, knights and common men.  80 have died, but others have taken up their swords.  Thoros tells Arya who replaced the original crew:  

We were still king's men, he said, and these were the king's people the lions were savaging. If we could not fight for Robert, we would fight for them, until every man of us was dead. And so we did, but as we fought something queer happened. For every man we lost, two showed up to take his place. A few were knights or squires, of gentle birth, but most were common men—fieldhands and fiddlers and innkeeps, servants and shoemakers, even two septons. Men of all sorts, and women too, children, dogs . . ."  ASOS Arya III

Not only are the few surviving original members of the BWB movers and shakers, they seem to have some powerful supporters AND the smallfolk joining their ranks every day! A few knights or squires?  Who?  Why?  There are so many battles to choose from why the ruined Riverlands?   Do any of these other factions of the more public BWB buy into Lady Stoneheart and her justice?  Where are the missing members thought to still be living. 

We walked with Brienne and then Jamie all over the Riverlands.   We know some powerful lords are at play--against each other or united in small unattached ways against Kings Landing and the Freys?   Some thing or one else? We saw what Bracken tried to do to Blackwood when Jamie ends the siege of Raven Tree Hall, the loss of Darry from Lannister control, the rumors and stories and vicious truth about the state of affairs.  With all this land grabbing why hasn't anyone tried to wrestle the Inn at the Crossroads from the ragged surviving Weddles? With all this restoration to peace why are murderous outlaws allowed to roam about hanging people and destroying the Saltpans?  Why is Brienne traveling with a knight, child squire, septon and dog when she's taken captive by the BWB?  

Conspiracy is clearly at play in the Riverlands every bit as much as in the North and King's Landing.  To what end?  So much is written about broken men in AFFC but is foretold by Thoros and Beric in the previous novel.   Breaking Brienne is precisely what seems to be happening at the BWB's hands.  What or who are the 6 of Rhaegar’s rubies in possession of the brothers on the QI?  Is there some reason beyond revenge for the coming massacre at Riverrun?  There are so many moving parts in the Riverlands it's impossible to throw a dart without hitting some ulterior motive wherever it lands.    If Olyvar Frey really was sent to act as heir to Rosby who does it serve?  What of the extended Frey family members in the Vale and North?  Who would hide Robb Stark's brother in law?  Who would the Blackfish trust for aid?  Too much power shifting and positioning afoot.  What's really going on in the Riverlands if not a chaos of conspiracy? Why does't this feel like the Grand Northern Conspiracy? 

[Mat92]

I don't think there's a conspiracy going on in the Riverlands.

If so, to what end? We are just seeing people try to get their lives back on track in arguably the most fractured part of the country after the war. Yes there are some some lords definitely trying to take advantage of the political situation but I can't see a grand conspiracy in play. There are too many different parties involved.  

The Great Northern Conspiracy is more believable, even though I don't buy it at all - it's impractical for an in-world scenario, let alone a cop out story-wise.

 

[The Commentator]

No, not a conspiracy.  What you have there are men who are lost.  Unemployed, lost, cynical men who seek something meaningful in their lives.  The brotherhood is a caricature of Robin of Sherwood and his followers.  These are aimless, leaderless men who look for guidance.  Unfortunately, they found a leader in Lady Stoneheart and her brand of justice is corrupted.  

[Lollygag]

I agree with @Curled Finger that there is a conspiracy about. That Stoneheart disappears for long spans of time is what really tuned me into this. What is she doing? Keep in mind, she’s a Tully and these are Tully lands with no Tully around at present. And Hoster raised and trained her as his heir traveling all about the Riverlands until Edmure came along and looked like he’d survive. She knows what she's doing.

I have to admit that I don’t understand some readers being so against the suggestion of conspiracies in-series. That’s kinda what the whole series is about and the author clearly is very fond of them.

 

[Seams]

I'm not 100% sure I understand your question, but I'll venture a theory anyway. What if the BwB situation is a variation on a theme? Your post is actually related to the topic posted eight hours later, asking what is Bowen Marsh's Plan. The potential in-story archetype I see for both of them is the story of the corpse Queen and the thirteenth Lord Commander / Night's King.

In the Riverlands parallel, Beric Dondarrion receives his assignment from Ned Stark. Even though he is acting on behalf of Robert, the plan is Ned's idea and he gives the order. So Beric is a sort of Ned stand-in, in this theory. Beric continues to act as he believes King Robert would want him to do, even after dying and being revived multiple times. Then he meets the corpse wife of Ned and he kisses her, giving up his life to revive her. She takes command not of Beric's love life, but of the Brotherhood itself.

Your observation about the small folk rising up to fill the ranks of the BwB is key to linking the different arcs. Just as regular folks join the BwB, we see the ranks of the once-proud Night's Watch filled with the lowest of small folk and, finally, with wildlings and women.

The similar situation at the Wall would, I suspect, require Val to fill the role of the corpse Queen. Just as Jon is being stabbed by his Night's Watch brothers, the giant Wun Wun is protecting Val from unwanted advances by Ser Patrek. If this model is correct, Val will be the one to step up and take command of the wildlings after Jon's death. I may be wrong - Melisandre might fill the role of the corpse queen, but it doesn't seem as if the wildlings would follow her willingly. I suppose another alternative would be Queen Selyse, with her loyal Queen's men, trying to take charge while Stannis is busy down at Winterfell. And then there's Sam and Gilly as a possible Night's King / Corpse Queen pair . . . .

The resolution comes from the squeeze play by the King Beyond the Wall and King of Winter attacking from above and below to defeat the rogue Lord Commander. The "strange sorceries" he uses to bind his sworn brothers are finally ended when he is "brought down" by the armies of the two attacking kings. Which two armies might create a squeeze play on the BwB and on the Night's Watch? (If the latter group falls "under the spell" of a rogue commander?) We know that Lyle Crakehall is heading out to battle the BwB at the end of ADwD.

Of course, the Night's King story could easily be one of the unreliable narrator situations - when the victors write the history, the vanquished are described as 100% evil. The history says that atrocities were committed during the thirteen years of the rule of the Night's King. We know that atrocities are committed in the Riverlands, but they are committed by Gregor Clegane's men and by "wolves" associated with Robb Stark's army. Will Beric and Lady Stoneheart be blamed for those crimes if the Lannisters write the history of the War of the Five Kings? Wildlings such as Rattleshirt, Varamyr, The Weeper and Craster commit atrocities (from the point of view of most readers and Westeros residents). Will Jon Snow be blamed for those crimes?

 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

I don't know how big a conspiracy it is, but what's going on the riverlands is interesting. Lady Stoneheart is reaping the benefits of what Beric and the old brotherhood did. 

It's also interesting that the religion of R'hllor seems to be gaining followers. 

Some of the river lords were already hand in glove with the old BwB. House Vance's maester, Ravella Smallwood (bannerman to House Vance), Maester Roone with Lychester. All three Houses are present at the siege of Riverrun. 

Tytos Blackwood might as well have told Jaime point blank that he would not give up Brynden Tully if he knew where he was and Jonos Bracken may have bent the knee, but he hasn't forgotten that his son and his nephew were killed, that one of his daughters was raped and that his castle was burned along with his crops and animals.

The situations in the north and the riverlands are similar. They hate the Freys like the northmen hate the Boltons and they are not Lannister fans either and the ancestral seat of their liege lord has been handed over to someone who has no business having it. 

There are really interesting things that emerge when we start breaking down all of this. 

[Curled Finger]

14 hours ago, Mat92 said:

I don't think there's a conspiracy going on in the Riverlands.

If so, to what end? We are just seeing people try to get their lives back on track in arguably the most fractured part of the country after the war. Yes there are some some lords definitely trying to take advantage of the political situation but I can't see a grand conspiracy in play. There are too many different parties involved.  

The Great Northern Conspiracy is more believable, even though I don't buy it at all - it's impractical for an in-world scenario, let alone a cop out story-wise.

 

That's sort of the point, my friend.  Games in the Riverlands looks like a box of clocks to me with gears spinning in all directions.   You get a good sense what the North wants: Rid of Bolton, maybe a little revenge.   But these people are all from the same culture and region.    If they can rally behind a little boy Stark every single 1 of them will jockey for control of that little Stark boy.   Far as I can tell, this is a theme among the Northmen.   It makes sense even if it is coming from different factions.   It's fluid.    This thing in the Riverlands is a whole other can of worms.   I'm impressed with the support of the nobility for the BWB.  I guess there are  probably 2, maybe as many as 8 people with secret identities hiding in the Riverlands, some for a long time and why do the newer ones stay?   The smallfolk are not just rioting and hating the king like they do in Kings Landing.   The Riverlands is actually bringing people rather than classes together.  Not unlike Little Finger integrating the merchant class into the dying nobility in the Vale.   There is an organization here, but I can't fully write it off as another wasteland.  There are some real players here.   Why?   I can't see anyone really getting behind the Tullys except Edmure, who was good to the smallfolk at least once.  I never got the feeling he was otherwise that important outside titles.   It's not looking like he will be around for anyone to rally behind any way.   

Yah, to what end?  

[Curled Finger]

7 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

No, not a conspiracy.  What you have there are men who are lost.  Unemployed, lost, cynical men who seek something meaningful in their lives.  The brotherhood is a caricature of Robin of Sherwood and his followers.  These are aimless, leaderless men who look for guidance.  Unfortunately, they found a leader in Lady Stoneheart and her brand of justice is corrupted.  

I get where you're coming from, but I don't think any of them are aimless.   I always figured the BwB was splintered into several groups now and can't help but wonder why the collective allows Stoneheart to do her thing.    She's not Beric.   Are there really that many converted R'hllorists in the Riverlands?   Did I miss some point about the Tully's importance?   Half these people aren't even Riverlanders?

[Curled Finger]

7 hours ago, Lollygag said:

I agree with @Curled Finger that there is a conspiracy about. That Stoneheart disappears for long spans of time is what really tuned me into this. What is she doing? Keep in mind, she’s a Tully and these are Tully lands with no Tully around at present. And Hoster raised and trained her as his heir traveling all about the Riverlands until Edmure came along and looked like he’d survive. She knows what she's doing.

I have to admit that I don’t understand some readers being so against the suggestion of conspiracies in-series. That’s kinda what the whole series is about and the author clearly is very fond of them.

 

Wheels within wheels, my friend.   I get it.   There is more conspiracy and plot than most people can actually stomach in this story.  I think it's possible something huge is happening but I can't figure out what.   I wonder if this is organized or just more chaos born of chaos.   The Riverlands have taken the brunt of the War of the 5 Kings.  It sounded like a really nice place at 1st, now it's ruined.   If I was there I would try to put things back together under whatever rule they gave me...then I get to thinking about the rule they did give...Lannisters and Freys?    There is no rich Riverlands heritage in either family.   (Part of why I don't get why the Tullys, newcomers than the Freys, are such a big deal?)   It is a wicked hostile corporate takeover.    I think there are 3 or 4 main conspiracies and just as many minor conspiracies at play.   

Interesting and probable take on Cat's childhood pre Edmure.   Good to be reminded of important little things.   

[Curled Finger]

4 hours ago, Seams said:

I'm not 100% sure I understand your question, but I'll venture a theory anyway. What if the BwB situation is a variation on a theme? Your post is actually related to the topic posted eight hours later, asking what is Bowen Marsh's Plan. The potential in-story archetype I see for both of them is the story of the corpse Queen and the thirteenth Lord Commander / Night's King.

In the Riverlands parallel, Beric Dondarrion receives his assignment from Ned Stark. Even though he is acting on behalf of Robert, the plan is Ned's idea and he gives the order. So Beric is a sort of Ned stand-in, in this theory. Beric continues to act as he believes King Robert would want him to do, even after dying and being revived multiple times. Then he meets the corpse wife of Ned and he kisses her, giving up his life to revive her. She takes command not of Beric's love life, but of the Brotherhood itself.

Your observation about the small folk rising up to fill the ranks of the BwB is key to linking the different arcs. Just as regular folks join the BwB, we see the ranks of the once-proud Night's Watch filled with the lowest of small folk and, finally, with wildlings and women.

The similar situation at the Wall would, I suspect, require Val to fill the role of the corpse Queen. Just as Jon is being stabbed by his Night's Watch brothers, the giant Wun Wun is protecting Val from unwanted advances by Ser Patrek. If this model is correct, Val will be the one to step up and take command of the wildlings after Jon's death. I may be wrong - Melisandre might fill the role of the corpse queen, but it doesn't seem as if the wildlings would follow her willingly. I suppose another alternative would be Queen Selyse, with her loyal Queen's men, trying to take charge while Stannis is busy down at Winterfell. And then there's Sam and Gilly as a possible Night's King / Corpse Queen pair . . . .

The resolution comes from the squeeze play by the King Beyond the Wall and King of Winter attacking from above and below to defeat the rogue Lord Commander. The "strange sorceries" he uses to bind his sworn brothers are finally ended when he is "brought down" by the armies of the two attacking kings. Which two armies might create a squeeze play on the BwB and on the Night's Watch? (If the latter group falls "under the spell" of a rogue commander?) We know that Lyle Crakehall is heading out to battle the BwB at the end of ADwD.

Of course, the Night's King story could easily be one of the unreliable narrator situations - when the victors write the history, the vanquished are described as 100% evil. The history says that atrocities were committed during the thirteen years of the rule of the Night's King. We know that atrocities are committed in the Riverlands, but they are committed by Gregor Clegane's men and by "wolves" associated with Robb Stark's army. Will Beric and Lady Stoneheart be blamed for those crimes if the Lannisters write the history of the War of the Five Kings? Wildlings such as Rattleshirt, Varamyr, The Weeper and Craster commit atrocities (from the point of view of most readers and Westeros residents). Will Jon Snow be blamed for those crimes?

 

I couldn't snip any of it, Seams, and thank you for some really clear connections.   There is no telling what legend relates to which current event, but you made a nice case for NK/CQ across the board.   As the journey continues I am finding more glitches or direct connections and I reckon this little conversation is my realization of the difference in organization in the politics of the North and Riverlands.    And I know I'm a sucker, but the Riverlands did take Robb as their king rather readily.   None of this makes clear sense except when a brilliant detective can make a connection between the past and present.  Well done!  

Same as it ever was, I've got this itch to discuss all things Riverlands, my personal revelations about Brienne and Thoros' description of the new members of the BWB, the missing boys as I'm stuck on in the Olyvar Frey topic, who would Blackfish actually trust to do anything to help him in a high risk move he's about to make.   So your answer is a welcome surprise and I would be very happy to know any further thoughts you have in any of this chaos.   

[Curled Finger]

4 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I don't know how big a conspiracy it is, but what's going on the riverlands is interesting. Lady Stoneheart is reaping the benefits of what Beric and the old brotherhood did. 

It's also interesting that the religion of R'hllor seems to be gaining followers. 

Some of the river lords were already hand in glove with the old BwB. House Vance's maester, Ravella Smallwood (bannerman to House Vance), Maester Roone with Lychester. All three Houses are present at the siege of Riverrun. 

Tytos Blackwood might as well have told Jaime point blank that he would not give up Brynden Tully if he knew where he was and Jonos Bracken may have bent the knee, but he hasn't forgotten that his son and his nephew were killed, that one of his daughters was raped and that his castle was burned along with his crops and animals.

The situations in the north and the riverlands are similar. They hate the Freys like the northmen hate the Boltons and they are not Lannister fans either and the ancestral seat of their liege lord has been handed over to someone who has no business having it. 

There are really interesting things that emerge when we start breaking down all of this. 

A kindred spirit!   Thanks for that.  There is so much wonderful mire.  Yah, I can see hating the Freys in the light you cast.   We have a leader in my country who says the most inappropriate things.   Stuff like this shouldn't be able to fall out of a world leader's mouth.  I am occasionally embarrassed by this because he is the leader and I fear people will think I put him there.   Silly, but can you imagine the shame, dismay or horror the Riverlands natives (would) feel at the Frey's actions?   Walder wasn't thought well of as far back as Dunk & Egg and he never made a good name for himself or his house.    He lucked into a money maker.    

I mentioned the bolded in a different reply above.    I'm glad you brought it up and think it's odd, too.   Any thoughts on who Blackfish would trust with his intentions?   You feel free to come back and deposit any more curiosities that strike your fancy.   I get the feeling you see it much the way I do, but you seem to have some clearer ideas about where it's all going.   

[Seams]

9 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

. . . If I was there I would try to put things back together under whatever rule they gave me...then I get to thinking about the rule they did give...Lannisters and Freys? There is no rich Riverlands heritage in either family.   (Part of why I don't get why the Tullys, newcomers than the Freys, are such a big deal?)   It is a wicked hostile corporate takeover.

 

9 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

. . . As the journey continues I am finding more glitches or direct connections and I reckon this little conversation is my realization of the difference in organization in the politics of the North and Riverlands. And I know I'm a sucker, but the Riverlands did take Robb as their king rather readily. None of this makes clear sense except when a brilliant detective can make a connection between the past and present.  Well done!  

Same as it ever was, I've got this itch to discuss all things Riverlands,  . . . I would be very happy to know any further thoughts you have in any of this chaos.   

Here's another thought that just came out of thin air.

" . . . The innkeep never hung another sign, so men forgot the dragon and took to calling the place the River Inn. In those days, the Trident flowed beneath its back door, and half its rooms were built out over the water. Guests could throw a line out their window and catch a trout, it's said. There was a ferry landing here as well, so travelers could cross to Lord Harroway's Town and Whitewalls. "

"We left the Trident south of here, and have been riding north and west . . . not toward the river but away from it."

"Aye, my lady," the septon said. "The river moved. Seventy years ago, it was. Or was it eighty? It was when old Masha Heddle's grandfather kept the place. It was her who told me all this history. . . . "

(AFfC, Chap. 37, Brienne VIII)

Rivers move. We know the story of House Manderly, forced to move from the Westerlands to the North, in spite of their wealth and prominence. The Rhoynar were forced to leave Essos and take refuge in Dorne. Children from the "wrong side of the sheets" are named Rivers, and we see Brynden Rivers relocate to the far North, beyond the Wall. Maybe this comes into play in a more "fluid" approach to governance or loyalty to leadership.

I keep meaning to get back to my "Key to all Mythologies" approach to the Dunk & Egg stories (I know you can appreciate that Middlemarch reference) and I'm sure the diverted Chequy Water, the stream separating Coldmoat and Standfast, is part of this moving rivers symbolism. Another example: as they travel the Rhoyne river, Tyrion and his companions aboard the Shy Maid make an unexpected and weird return to the lurking stone men at the Bridge of Dream. I suspect this is not a magical time travel event but that the boat got caught up in an oxbow that had reconnected to the river during a time of high water, returning them to a point below the bridge they had already passed.

Just to complicate things, I think the Wall is supposed to be compared to a river in some ways. In some recent thread, I suggested that Donal Noye fighting the giant in the tunnel near Castle Black is like Robert fighting Rhaegar at the Ruby Ford.

As for their willingness to take Robb as their king, keep in mind that he was born at Riverrun. He ordered that the sword Ice be returned to him at Riverrun. His crown was made by the smith at Riverrun. Of course, I am ever pondering the wolf - flow - fowl pun, wondering whether they are interchangeable, or whether there is something about the unification of opposites. At any rate, when wolf (Ned) married flow (Catelyn), their children probably took on aspects of both Houses.

You mention all your current irons in the fire on so many hot ASOIAF topics, and I sympathize completely! The absolute best thing, though, is when you can connect a couple or three topics in a way that makes sense. Your point about the small folk stepping into the BwB vacancies left by slain knights and squires is really sparking me on a variety of topics. I wonder whether one of GRRM's points is that Riverrun and Darry and Harrenhal are somewhat beside the point, and we should really be looking at a place like the inn at the crossroads to understand who "rules" the Riverlands. The Heddle family may be the real leaders. It is no accident that Gendry has taken up residence there - we may see a unification of the Baratheon (Bellringer, Peach) line with the Heddle line, if Gendry settles down with Willow or Jeyne.

If this "smallfolk = legitimate" theory is correct, it could also explain why Jaime muses that Sansa should marry an innkeeper - he's not foreshadowing Sansa hooking up with Gendry (although I can't rule out such a plot twist) but might be confirming my hunch that Sansa is a descendant of royalty and should be legitimized.

I just re-read the wiki entry for Amerei "Gatehouse Ami" Frey, and found a key bit of information in the identity of her first husband. After she was found having group sex with a bunch of grooms, she was quickly married off to a hedge knight, Ser Pate of the Blue Fork. So there are her "river" bona fides - she was married to a "river" before he was killed by Gregor Clegane and then she embarked on her unconsummated marriage to Lancel Lannister.

One more thought off the top of my head: when Catelyn and Robb are traveling to the Twins, unaware that they are heading toward their doom, they have a really hard time crossing the rain-swollen river. Like the Whispering Wood, was the river trying to warn them not to go in that direction? Edmure effectively shuts down the Lannister army, turning them back at every place they want to cross the river. Turns out, Robb wanted the Lannisters to cross the river and he was ready to crush their army if they had reached their destination. The Game in the riverlands seems to be a river crossing game and this might help to sort out the apparent conspiracies.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

10 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I mentioned the bolded in a different reply above.    I'm glad you brought it up and think it's odd, too.   Any thoughts on who Blackfish would trust with his intentions?   You feel free to come back and deposit any more curiosities that strike your fancy.   I get the feeling you see it much the way I do, but you seem to have some clearer ideas about where it's all going.   

I don't know that the ideas are much clearer, but on my end, it's really at the siege of Riverrun that I started getting the sense that there was something much bigger going on in the riverlands. The money trail for me in this is who is part of Jaime's host as he travels the riverlands, who he meets and the information that's shared in the presence of these people.

Jaime has the sons of three river lords with him. He has Lew Piper, Lord Piper's son and he's got Garrett Paege. These two are his squires and they are also his hostages. And he has Hugo Vance with him as well. Hugo Vance, we are told in the appendix of ASoS is a friend and companion of Edmure Tully (he and his brothers, in fact). The other thing we are told in the text is that Hugo Vance's father, Lord Norbert, served Lord Darry as squire with Brynden Tully. So there is a connection here that runs far deeper to the extent that Norbert Vance proposes that he goes to Riverrun to parlay with Blackfish and end the siege of Riverrun, an idea that's dismissed by another river lord, Clement Piper. 

Edmure did not take that well. The next day he avoided her entirely on the march, preferring the company of Marq Piper, Lymond Goodbrook, Patrek Mallister, and the young Vances. (Catelyn V, ASOS 45)

Jaime notes the Houses that are present, and you have the Houses that are Frey bannermen (Charlton, Erenford, Haigh). You have House Goodbrook, Piper, both the Houses Vance and Smallwood and House Roote (reluctant and recalcitrant).

House Goodbrook is married into House Frey and one of its members participates in the Red Wedding and dies there. Lymond Goodbrook, we don't know what's happened to him, but House Goodbrook is at the siege, which might indicate that its lord is a hostage.

Marq Piper is a hostage at the Twins. Patrek Mallister was taken to Seagard by Black Walder and he threatened to hang him if he didn't surrender which he did in the end. And we've got the young Vances. Karyl Vance has only daughters, so the young Vances are likely to be Norbert's sons who could all be held at the Twins (save for the one who is a maester). 

House Roote is also present, but we don't know all that much about them.

Hugo Vance is at Darry at the feast when the BwB, the raid on the Saltpans are discussed. He knows where Harwin Plumm for instance is chasing after outlaws and he knows who will be leaving Jaime's host to do the same. He knows which Freys are at Darry (Jaime himself thinks that the Freys are there to stake their claim) and he knows Lancel's marriage to Ami has gone belly up. 

We know the maester of one of the Houses Vance was assisting Beric's Brotherhood by passing information along to them. And Ravella Smallwood was helping with information, food and shelter.

And we get the meeting between Tom and Edmure and later the meeting between Edmure and his uncle. A camp with 4,000 men, camp followers and so on is fertile ground for information. Edmure himself could have heard things.

Brynden could be anywhere. Like may, though, I think he's going to turn up to rescue Edmure and the other hostages that are being moved to Casterly Rock. I think his priority is going to free Edmure who isn't only his nephew (family), but also his liege lord (duty). 

This is sort of the way I break it down in my mind. There's obviously a lot more than this going on. 

[Megorova]

I think, that Thoros is staying in Riverlands, because he was ordered to do so by Shiera Seastar, who is also a shadowbinder Quaithe, and the Three-eyed Crow. She's planning to perform some sort of bloodmagic ritual, on the Isle of Faces, and for that she needs 7 people with dragon blood - Rhaegar's "rubies".

When Mirri Maz Duur was making preparations to save Drogo's life, thru magic she has summoned there several people, and among them Thoros - "Inside the tent the shapes were dancing, circling the brazier and the bloody bath, dark against the sandsilk, and some did not look human. She glimpsed the shadow of a great wolf, and another like a man wreathed in flames." <- most likely, it's a Red Priest, and there's not that many of them in ASOIAF, not to guess, which of them was it. Quaithe has warned Dany about Moqorro. Something like that ritual is not Benerro's level. He's a High Priest of R'hllor, so it's unlikely, that that was him. There's also Melisandre, but she's a woman, and there's Ezzelyno, but he's just some random insignificant extra character. So it was Thoros, and thus he is connected to Quaithe/Shiera Seastar. Probably, same as Mirri Maz Duur, and maester Marwyn, Thoros is also one of Shiera's agents.

I think, that Shiera is GRRM's parallel to Morgana le Fay, and thus she is some sort of great mastermind, and shadow puppeteer, that is pulling by strings all important characters. So whatever conspiracy is happening in Riverlands, it's magic related, and it was orchestrated by Shiera Seastar.

[Megorova]

On 11/15/2018 at 5:33 AM, Curled Finger said:

Did I miss some point about the Tully's importance?

Maybe they are carriers of dragonblood.

My theory is based on this information (links):

Spoiler

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Falena_Stokeworth

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Jeyne_Lothston

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Bastard_of_Harrenhal

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Lucas_Lothston_(father_of_Manfryd)

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Manfred_Lothston

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/House_Whent

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Petyr_Baelish#Early_Life

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Gwayne_Corbray

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Minisa_Tully

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Ben_Blackthumb

I think, that the Bastard of Harrenhal is a secret son of Aegon IV Targaryen and Aegon's bastard-daughter, Jeyne Lothston. In span of First Blackfyre Rebellion he was knighted. Then he went to Braavos, to meet with others like him - unacknowledged bastards of Aegon IV - children of Bellegere Otherys - Bellanora, Narha, and Balerion; and with his Blackfyre relatives. There he has fathered a bastard-son, either with Bellanora, or Narha, or with one of their daughters, or with some random girl from Braavos. This bastard-son is Petyr Baelish's great-grandfather, the sellsword from Braavos, that was hired by Lord Corbray. Because Corbrays were indebted to Blackfyres - Daemon I has spared Kingsguard Gwayne Corbray, and was killed because of his kindness. So if Daemon's family asked Lord Corbray to hire into his service certain sellsword from Braavos (who was bloodrelated to Blackfyres. If my theory is correct, then the Bastard of Harrenhal was half-brother of Daemon I Blackfyre, and thus his son, that Braavosi sellsword, was first cousin of Daemon's children), then Lord Corbray did what they asked him.

The Bastard of Harrenhal has fathered a bastard-son in Braavos, but in Westeros he was a knight, and was in service of his mother's family - House Lothston. So he left either his bastard-son or his pregnant girlfriend in Braavos, and returned to Westeros. There he married, and established House Whent. And then overthrew House Lothston, and became Lord of Harrenhal.

Ben Blackthumb has worked for the last Lord Lothston, then for grandfather and father of Shella Whent, and later for Shella. Shella is from the same generation as Littlefinger's grandparents. She's very old. She was married to Lord Walter Whent, and by 281 was mother of his five children. Her four sons participated in Tournament at Harrenhal, that was eventually won by Rhaegar. And her youngest child, her daughter, was supposed to be Queen of Love and Beauty of that Tournament. Shella's four sons were adults, probably already had their own children. While Littlefinger at the time of that Tournament was only 12-13 years old (born in 268).

There's 12 years age gap between Robb and Rickon Stark, 25 years age gap between Rhaegar and Daenerys Targaryen. When Rhaegar was born, his father, Aerys was 15 years old, and his mother, Rhaella, was 13 or 14 years old. Rohanne Webber, grandmother of Tywin Lannister, gave birth to her last son, Jason, in 229, when she was 43 or 44 years old. So very early pregnancies, and very late pregnancies, are both a possibility in ASOIAF. Rhaella Targaryen became grandmother, when she was 34 or 35, and became a mother for a third time, when she was 38 or 39. Rhaella's daughter, Dany, was 4 years younger, than Rhaella's granddaughter, Rhaenys.

So it's possible, that during Tournament at Harrenhal, Shella Whent was in her 40s (45+), and had 30 years old son, three more sons of various ages, and a 12-16 years old daughter, and was grandmother of children, that were older (or close in age) than this daughter. If in 281, during Tournament, Shella Whent was 45-50 years old (gave birth to her oldest son, when she was 15, and gave birth to her daughter, when she was 33-38), then in 300, at the time of her death, prior Littlefinger became newest Lord of Harrenhal, Shella was 64-69 years old. At this time Petyr was 31 or 32 years old. If Shella's children would have been still alive, then they could have been same age as Petyr's parents. And if Shella's granchildren and youngest children would have been alive, then they would have been approximately same age as Littlefinger.

(I think, there's a reason why GRRM revealed to readers pieces of information about LF's ancestors (from his great grandfather to his father), and Shella Whent's ancestors (thru Ben Blacktumb, who has served to the last Lord Lothston, then to Shella's grandfather and father), and why this pieces are covering approximately the same time period. Because family history of House Whent and House Baelish are clues, that they are connected, that they have the same ancestor - the Bastard of Harrenhal, that was secret son of Jeyne Lothston and Aegon IV Targaryen.)

So it's likely, that Shella Whent was old enought to be LF's grandmother, i.e. was from the same generation as LF's grandparents. So Shella's father was from the same generation as LF's great grandfather, who was a sellsword from Braavos. And Shella's grandfather, who was first Whent Lord of Harrenhal, is from the same generation as LF's great great grandfather. So it's possible, that that sellsword from Braavos, was half-brother of Shella's father, and bastard-son of Shella's granfather, who was originally the Bastard of Harrenhal, and secret son of Aegon IV and Jeyne Lothston, and then became first Lord Whent of Harrenhal.

Hoster Tully's wife was Minisa Whent. Thus, it's possible, that Catelyn Tully, Lysa and her son Robert Arryn, Edmure Tully and his little son, and all of Catelyn's children, and Petyr Baelish are all carriers of dragonblood, thru their Whent ancestors.

So they could be Rhaegar's rubies - Bran, Sansa, Arya, Rickon, Robert Arryn, Edmure and his child.

P.S. Jeyne Lothston became Aegon's mistress in 178, and soon after that was evicted from court, supposedly because she had a pox. But I think, that the reason for her exile was her pregnancy. And even for Targaryens to impregnate your own daughter was overboard, so the pregnancy was concealed from everyone. And the baby was taken into Lothston's household at Harrenhal, because Lucas Lothston declared, that this child is his bastard-son, from some insignificant woman. Maybe Jeyne died in childbirth, so her fake father, Lucas, decided to take the baby. Depending on when exactly Aegon evicted Jeyne from court, her child could have been born in 178-180. So by the time of his participation in a meelee at KL, in 193, where he lost to Ser Arlan, he was 13-15 years old.

I think, that either the Bastard of Harrenhal or his son, that sellsword from Braavos, who was Littlefinger's great grandfather, was named Baelor or Bael. Aegon IV had children named Bellonara and Balerion, and one of his bastards, Daemon I Blackfyre, for some time was thought to be son of King Baelor Targaryen. So Baelor or Bael is a fit name for a Targaryen bastard-son or grandson.

And Baelish, last name of Littlefinger, is a derivative from Bael or Baelor. Bael ish 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

On 11/13/2018 at 11:31 PM, Curled Finger said:

Some thing or one else? We saw what Bracken tried to do to Blackwood when Jamie ends the siege of Raven Tree Hall, the loss of Darry from Lannister control, the rumors and stories and vicious truth about the state of affairs.  With all this land grabbing why hasn't anyone tried to wrestle the Inn at the Crossroads from the ragged surviving Weddles?

Something that I just thought of with regard to the Inn at the Crossroads. 

The inn used to be part of House Darry's lands prior to Robert's Rebellion. So it's sort of interesting that the BwB under Lady Stoneheart is essentially coming and going from the inn even though there are Freys that seem to have taken up residence at Darry. 

[Curled Finger]

2 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Something that I just thought of with regard to the Inn at the Crossroads. 

The inn used to be part of House Darry's lands prior to Robert's Rebellion. So it's sort of interesting that the BwB under Lady Stoneheart is essentially coming and going from the inn even though there are Freys that seem to have taken up residence at Darry. 

Curious.  The Darrys are certainly implied to be in cahoots with the BWB.  But they are also implied to support a Targaryan Restoration.    I realize this is probably nothing, but I'm picking at threads because everything in the Riverlands bugs me.   How could both those tie ins, if true, serve each other?   Those Darrys are into things, but they aren't big players...or are they?