Jump to content

Bowen Marsh's Plan


Euron III Greyjoy

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

The Wall doesn’t stop wights. The attack in AGOT at Castle Black proved that. 

Bowen Marsh is an idiot. His assassination of the Lord Commander leaves dysfunction in the ranks and will leave the Watch vulnerable to the white walkers. One can reason with wildlings, wights will attack and kill anyone they see. Leaving wildlings outside the Wall? The White Walkers/wights will kill them and make more wights, who, as I say, will attack anyone until they are ripped to pieces or set on fire.

I agree - he is an idiot. We know the wall doesn't stop wights. What about actual Others?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even if Marsh survives there is nothing saying he will end up in charge. And as I tried to point out earlier, there is actually a difference in how the different "branches" of the NW think. Builders and Stewards have a tendency not to think that there is anything going on except a lot of Wildlings gathering at the Wall. The rangers have a tendency to side with Jon in regards to what the actual threat is. Notice that the both of the people we know that stabbed Jon were stewards. Thorne was an exception in that he didn't really go north of the Wall until Jon sent him. Anyhow, the NW leadership isn't decided by who killed the last commander, but rather by who the majority choose.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, bent branch said:

Even if Marsh survives there is nothing saying he will end up in charge. And as I tried to point out earlier, there is actually a difference in how the different "branches" of the NW think. Builders and Stewards have a tendency not to think that there is anything going on except a lot of Wildlings gathering at the Wall. The rangers have a tendency to side with Jon in regards to what the actual threat is. Notice that the both of the people we know that stabbed Jon were stewards. Thorne was an exception in that he didn't really go north of the Wall until Jon sent him. Anyhow, the NW leadership isn't decided by who killed the last commander, but rather by who the majority choose.

Yeah, wasn't there a line in the books that said something about Jon's biggest supporters being the Rangers, whilst the other two factions where split. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/14/2018 at 3:04 PM, King Aegon I Targaryen said:

I'm not sure what's going to happen to Bowen Marsh straight after Jon's stabbing, I have seen detailed theories on how he will get out of this alive, and I've also seen theories on how he will die straight away. For the sake of the argument lets just say he gets out of this alive, what is his plan to deal with the Others? 

He doesn't have a plan.  Bowen reacted to Jon's announcement.  That was why the assassination was hurried.  Jon admitted to setting Mance Rayder free and compounded the problem when he announced his plan to attack the Boltons.  Bowen had to act quickly.  There was no plan.  He was too desperate to find a way to stop Jon.

I hope Bowen will be alright.  The situation doesn't look good for him.  He should send a letter of apology to the Boltons and blame it all on Jon.  Which is not untrue.  Request their help in dealing with the wildlings that Jon set loose in the north.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, lrresistable said:

How do you reason that?

the plan was this in exchange for the Nights Watch heading North to rescue the Wildlings at Hardhome. They have no reason to go fight the Boltons with Jon dead now, and no reason to try rescue the ones at Hardhome because there is no safe refuge anymore in this scenario if they left to go save them, at least without killing the entire NW first; The Wall would be shut behind them.

 

It's pretty clear there'll be some kind of takeover at The Wall and Martin will have in mind for partisans on both sides to die. Some free folk may flee South, but i imagine more will fight because the NW have hostages & The Wall is the only safe haven left to them with Winter coming.

 

I don't remember how many Wildlings out-number the Black Brothers, but it's somewhere in the multiplier. They aren't a cohesive force and are factitious and will be fighting each-other with Jon's death, though a good amount will try ride the line and stay out of it. I'm not sure if they have access to the armoury, or if the ones at the Shield Hall were combat ready when Jon sent for them, but if i remember correctly, they do man several castles on The Wall.


We'll most likely get to see what goes down from Melisandre's POV. She'll burn Shireen and maybe Bowen and his co-conspirators, if the fighting force of Wildlings at Castle Black doesn't get them first

The people in the aftermath of Jon's stabbing still think Ramsay is coming for them and will make preparations for that

 

 with food supplies being so dire, they are all reliant on the Braavosi to send the promised food aide

The wildlings believe their king is still alive and under Bolton custody.  Yeah they will rescue Mance Rayder.  Or die trying.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most  joined him up with him to escape the Others and try pass through The Wall. They don't really place value on Kingship like Southerners do, he was a means to an end in very strenuous circumstances

 

Mance failed the Free Folk and got routed. Wildlings despise weakness and with his 'capture' that just adds more to the failure. I doubt they're going on a suicide mission to Winterfell  to go rescue him before first securing The Wall.

 

I'm not saying a faction won't eventually try go save Mance, but it's ride or die with the Black Brothers at Castle Black right now. If the traitors win the coup happening at the moment against Jon's pro-wildling alliance forces, all those unnecessary mouths (their people, wives & children) will be kicked from The Wall.

 

Breaking their oaths made to the legitimate faction of the NW that are being betrayed right now and fleeing down South to go get him just puts them between enemies on both sides, in hostile territory.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, King Aegon I Targaryen said:

What was his opinion on the matter? 

That Bowen Marsh is part of a plot to get rid of Jon Snow, Wildlings ans Queensmen is something resembling the red wedding. He also claims that the reaction of the black brothers is motivated in large parts due to Jon's sucide mission to Hardhome.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/15/2018 at 10:18 AM, Lollygag said:

It looks like we saw the last of the attack and there was no indication at all that anyone witnessed it.

I think a lot of people witnessed it...

Quote

 

The knight's cloak flapped in the cold air. Of white wool it had been, bordered in cloth-of-silver and patterned with blue stars. Blood and bone were flying everywhere.

Men poured from the surrounding keeps and towers. Northmen, free folk, queen's men … "Form a line," Jon Snow commanded them. "Keep them back. Everyone, but especially the queen's men." 

 

I don't think GRRM would describe a mere handful of men as pouring out of the keeps and towers. It's an unknown number, but it has to be considerable. Also, who is he directing to form a line?   

Quote

Horse and Rory fell in beside Jon as he left the Shieldhall. I should talk with Melisandre after I see the queen, he thought. If she could see a raven in a storm, she can find Ramsay Snow for me. Then he heard the shouting … and a roar so loud it seemed to shake the Wall. "That come from Hardin's Tower, m'lord," Horse reported. He might have said more, but the scream cut him off.

Val, was Jon's first thought. But that was no woman's scream. That is a man in mortal agony. He broke into a run. Horse and Rory raced after him. "Is it wights?" asked Rory. Jon wondered. Could his corpses have escaped their chains?

We know Leathers is at the scene, but Horse, Rory and Leathers couldn't be expected to form much of a line. "Then he heard the shouting" seems to imply multiple people shouting at once. We know Othell and his builders left the shieldhall at roughly the same time as Bowen, so they are likely to be on the scene as well. Anyone who heard the shouting would be gravitating toward it, curious as to what's going on. That's only natural. So there would have been plenty of witnesses.

If Bowen survives, I think it will be in custody.

There are a fair number of clues that Othell is not in on the plot with Bowen, and I agree with @Seams that Bowen is not the actual ringleader. In my estimation , that would be Thorne and there are clues that would suggest that he is actually at CB, but out of sight.

We know that the great majority of the NW would not support him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, bemused said:

I think a lot of people witnessed it...

I don't think GRRM would describe a mere handful of men as pouring out of the keeps and towers. It's an unknown number, but it has to be considerable. Also, who is he directing to form a line?   

We know Leathers is at the scene, but Horse, Rory and Leathers couldn't be expected to form much of a line. "Then he heard the shouting" seems to imply multiple people shouting at once. We know Othell and his builders left the shieldhall at roughly the same time as Bowen, so they are likely to be on the scene as well. Anyone who heard the shouting would be gravitating toward it, curious as to what's going on. That's only natural. So there would have been plenty of witnesses.

If Bowen survives, I think it will be in custody.

There are a fair number of clues that Othell is not in on the plot with Bowen, and I agree with @Seams that Bowen is not the actual ringleader. In my estimation , that would be Thorne and there are clues that would suggest that he is actually at CB, but out of sight.

We know that the great majority of the NW would not support him.

There's definitely a lot of people around but my impression is that Wun Wun's spectacle is supposed to have been a credible distraction from what happened with Jon and Marsh. I have some problems with how the series treats the observation abilities of the people of that world as it seems very different than what's realistic in our world. Varys' people only notice what they expect, Ned not recognizing Rodrick whom he saw every day for years and just saw a few weeks ago, LF also employs Varys' thing with Sansa despite her looking just like Catelyn whom everyone just saw there fairly recently and very memorably, all are hard for me to believe. I don't really follow how these should work.

But no one calls out. No one intervenes. Nothing from Jon indicating anyone saw. Nothing indicating Wick or Marsh feared intervention in the slightest. No one joined in. If there had been witnesses, it would have gone down differently, either people stopping it or joining in. But there's nothing so I have to go with that even though Wun Wun isn't enough for me to believe that no one notices the fight.

If the Wall is to fall as has seemed inevitable from the beginning of the series, Jon has to be removed and in Marsh we have a perfect person to facilitate it falling. As the 999th LC of the NW no less. Also if Jon is to survive in any capacity, he can't be at the Wall as survivors aren't believable given the buildup of the Others and wights. If the KitN and RLJ things are to have impact on the plot, then Jon needs to be moved away from the NW in some way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Lollygag said:

But no one calls out. No one intervenes. Nothing from Jon indicating anyone saw. Nothing indicating Wick or Marsh feared intervention in the slightest. No one joined in. If there had been witnesses, it would have gone down differently, either people stopping it or joining in. But there's nothing so I have to go with that even though Wun Wun isn't enough for me to believe that no one notices the fight.

If the Wall is to fall as has seemed inevitable from the beginning of the series, Jon has to be removed and in Marsh we have a perfect person to facilitate it falling. As the 999th LC of the NW no less. Also if Jon is to survive in any capacity, he can't be at the Wall as survivors aren't believable given the buildup of the Others and wights. If the KitN and RLJ things are to have impact on the plot, then Jon needs to be moved away from the NW in some way.

From the moment the attack begins, Jon's attention is wholly taken up with the attack itself. I don't assume any and all shouting (e.g.) has stopped because he's not giving a complete running commentary. Nor do I assume that no-one intervenes or joins in in any way. We have a very limited view from Jon's POV. It's not only incomplete  as to what all onlookers are doing due to the fact that he's completely preoccupied by the attack, but I think we have to allow that his perception of what's going on out of his line of sight can be wrong.

This is in regard to the third "dagger" which he can't see because it's behind him .. it could as easily be a sudden push, shoving him out of the way (or a blow that's poorly aimed)... and the fourth "knife" which he never feels - possibly because though he assumes a fourth knife is coming, it never does. (He has taken note of Bowen and his three companions in the sheildhall, and two of them have attacked him, so to assume four is very reasonable.)

I think both Wick and Bowen do show signs of some apprehension about possible intervention and/or consequences. "For the watch" is a hoped for verbal shield. 

Quote

 

 When he put his hand to the side of his neck, blood welled between his fingers. "Why?"

"For the Watch." Wick slashed at him again. This time Jon caught his wrist and bent his arm back until he dropped the dagger. The gangling steward backed away, his hands upraised as if to say, Not me, it was not me. Men were screaming.

 

For me, "It was not me' translates to "not my idea to do this" .. and on a side note, it seems entirely possible that at least some of the men screaming at this point could be reacting to the attack on Jon.

Bowen's tears have never seemed to me to be tears of regret for Jon or having to perform a hard duty, but for himself (he knows there will be consequences)... tears of self pity and fear. I suspect that like Wick, this was not Bowen's idea either... at least not solely his. He's been groomed and led to it. I suspect that if he doesn't go through with it (in spite of there being witnesses) he will have to answer to Thorne.

I agree that it seems inevitable that the Wall will fall (or be breached or overrun) but I don't think that will happen until probably the end of TWoW. (Or even the beginning of ADOS?)

Though I think Jon survives very much intact, I do think he will be moved away from the wall at some point ... just not yet.

But I doubt Bowen will ever become LC. He would have to be elected, and that seems very unlikely. His chances seem almost slim as Thorne's were. The men have never thought he was good for much but counting and they're not likely to forget that he led 100 of them to their deaths chasing the Weeper.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, bemused said:

From the moment the attack begins, Jon's attention is wholly taken up with the attack itself. I don't assume any and all shouting (e.g.) has stopped because he's not giving a complete running commentary. Nor do I assume that no-one intervenes or joins in in any way. We have a very limited view from Jon's POV. It's not only incomplete  as to what all onlookers are doing due to the fact that he's completely preoccupied by the attack, but I think we have to allow that his perception of what's going on out of his line of sight can be wrong.

This is in regard to the third "dagger" which he can't see because it's behind him .. it could as easily be a sudden push, shoving him out of the way (or a blow that's poorly aimed)... and the fourth "knife" which he never feels - possibly because though he assumes a fourth knife is coming, it never does. (He has taken note of Bowen and his three companions in the sheildhall, and two of them have attacked him, so to assume four is very reasonable.)

I think both Wick and Bowen do show signs of some apprehension about possible intervention and/or consequences. "For the watch" is a hoped for verbal shield. 

For me, "It was not me' translates to "not my idea to do this" .. and on a side note, it seems entirely possible that at least some of the men screaming at this point could be reacting to the attack on Jon.

Bowen's tears have never seemed to me to be tears of regret for Jon or having to perform a hard duty, but for himself (he knows there will be consequences)... tears of self pity and fear. I suspect that like Wick, this was not Bowen's idea either... at least not solely his. He's been groomed and led to it. I suspect that if he doesn't go through with it (in spite of there being witnesses) he will have to answer to Thorne.

I agree that it seems inevitable that the Wall will fall (or be breached or overrun) but I don't think that will happen until probably the end of TWoW. (Or even the beginning of ADOS?)

Though I think Jon survives very much intact, I do think he will be moved away from the wall at some point ... just not yet.

But I doubt Bowen will ever become LC. He would have to be elected, and that seems very unlikely. His chances seem almost slim as Thorne's were. The men have never thought he was good for much but counting and they're not likely to forget that he led 100 of them to their deaths chasing the Weeper.

Blast! My post got eaten!

Short version:

There's only two people in the fight, so Jon and Marsh would both notice someone showing up in the line of sight between just two points. And I can't think of any other battle written in such a misleading way for the reader. Tyrion noticed Pod intervening in the Battle of Blackwater. Credibility of any witness should they exist and do and say nothing to Marsh killing the LC is also a problem given our otherwise mild-mannered steward accountant.

The apprehension makes sense. It was a stupid crime of passion but it looks like they got lucky. Agree Marsh's motivations are complicated. He's a pretty complex character when you give him a good look.

Marsh is a bad choice, but the lack of choices has been a thing with the NW from the beginning. Criminals, rapists, murderers, illiterates, whatnot. Jeor went on about it. Became an issue again when they were forced to elect a 16 year old. Choices are worse now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...