Condoning Renly Baratheon

[The Sunland Lord]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Because you were using it as support for a point that doesn't seem to play out it the books. Of all the brothers or family members who've died fighting each other, the only ones I can really point to as having a negative effect on their reputation is Maekar and Tyrion. That wasn't war though. That was a trial by seven and murder. It would have been hard for the IB to think less of Euron but he wasn't even really connected by most to Balon's death.

Which is why I wrote that it was "probably" later, since you started grasping at straws. Then again you were the one who said that Stannis *actually* killed Renly but I usually don't butthurt unless someone else starts doing so. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

6 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

Which is why I wrote that it was "probably" later, since you started grasping at straws. Then again you were the one who said that Stannis *actually* killed Renly but I usually don't butthurt unless someone else starts doing so. 

I'm debating the assertion that killing Stannis in battle would matter much at all

[Universal Sword Donor]

28 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Really?! When?

She mentions in AFFC that she had been forced to kill Robert earlier than she wanted and that she wanted Stannis and Renly dead before then. 

his meddling had forced her to rid herself of Robert sooner than she would have liked, before she could deal with his pestilential brothers

We are initially told by Renly that he feared the Lannisters, they weren't merciful, and then he follows up later with him saying he'd have ended up like Ned had he remained, in chains or dead.

28 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

That's the problem. Renly's willingness to usurp and rob his own immediate family is what makes him dirty. Shameless and sacrilegious too...

Renly is also an unreliable narrator as it is obvious that he doesn't know what the hell he's talking about. Everyone from Sunspear to Castle Black knows that his situation and Robert's situation are completely different.

Dorne seems indifferent. The Reach and Stormlands don't seem to care.

But in the broad stroke, the rebellion by Robert was started by his foster father to save his life. Renly is starting a rebellion and acquiring a father in law to save his life.

28 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

As a matter of fact, if Lyanna was raised from the dead and given to him in marriage at the cost of his crown and his wealth, Robert would gladly give it all away and be riding off into the sunset before you could say "Don't Mess With Texas."

No debate there but he fought the war to save his life. If he fought it for Lyanna, he would have rebelled long before Aerys demanded his head. 

28 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Being king didn't matter to him when he called his banners, it didn't matter to him when he condoned the murder of Rhaenys and Aegon(???), it didn't matter to him when Joffrey was born, it didn't matter when he tried to compete in his own tourney and it didn't matter to him on his deathbed.

It seems to be everything that Renly ever cared about though.

Renly dreamt of being a king as a child then schemes of not being murdered as an adult. Of the three options he tried, only the last one involved increasing his power or wearing a crown.

[Arthur Peres]

36 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

clearly they were. 99.9999%  of the realm did not know. 

99.99999% of the realm does not live in the same court. Pycelle, Tyrion, Stannis, Eddard, LF, Varys, all finded it out. 

Cersei and Jaime were doing it in front of a passed out Robert. They were not discrete.

42 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Loras is one of the best knights in the series, you thinking he was chosen based on being Renly's 'boyfriend' comes across as homophobic. 

Loras is Renly boyfriend or lover if you wish. My text is that Renly is replacing his best men for his boyfriend...playing favorites.

45 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Clearly there was a lot more to him than that, you don't become the most supported ruler in the war of the five kings if there is little other than vanity to your character. 

 Honestly, and this is the fandom in general, people are too hung up on modern day gay stereotypes when they think of Renly. 

You are being very judmental here... Renly is potrayed almost like a cartoon character. He is vain, he cares for little things like making Stannis wait instead of going to the point, he want the shining sword of his brother, he likes his personal guard in bright collors, even for Catelyn that didn't knew about Renly's homossexuality observed that Renly payed more attention to Loras than to his wife in public.

Renly got the support of two regions, and not all of the stormlords supported him. His is not a very good diplomate as he is took for granted Dorne and he didn't even try to reach other regions like the North or the Vale.

52 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

but it was not fully formed. it is idiotic to attack without your full strength when Tywin has 20k and you may still need to beat the North and Riverlands.

 every battle should be about as few casualties as possible. 

No it isn't. If you have the moment now, you act now. Renly was waiting for support that would never come, like the Dornish.

If Tywin wins a decisive victory against Robb he will have his 20k plus the army of Stafford and the ressources from the Westerlands. With his gold and reputation he could also gain the support of the crowlands or force some of the houses of the riverlands to support him, and this is not couting the moral bust and the experiece of his army would gain.

If Robb wins a decisive victory against Tywin he will not need Renly anymore and has no reason to swear his alligiance to the "late King Renly".

[Universal Sword Donor]

7 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

99.99999% of the realm does not live in the same court. Pycelle, Tyrion, Stannis, Eddard, LF, Varys, all finded it out. 

Cersei and Jaime were doing it in front of a passed out Robert. They were not discrete.

And yet no one else in the castle found out about it, not even the other KG or servants. We see 6 people find out out of the hundreds of sworn swords, KG, lords at court, and various servants. That is a tiny percentage.

7 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Renly got the support of two regions, and not all of the stormlords supported him. His is not a very good diplomate as he is took for granted Dorne and he didn't even try to reach other regions like the North or the Vale.

Taking Dorne for granted is not good diplomacy but he is gunning for the same goal as then (downfall of the Lannisters). He has Mace watching his back with an army while the Dornish are in their passes. He received Robb and opened negotiations. The Vale wasn't even willing to negotiate with Catelyn herself. They are a non issue at this point. 

Diplomacy wasn't his main strategy. It was secondary. He was intending to bludgeon or threaten to bludgeon everyone to stepping back in line underneath his rule. The fact he is smart enough to reject Stannis' offer because he'd lose Mace while still rewarding Stannis with SE shows me his grasp on diplomacy and realpolitik isn't bad at all. You can, however, criticize his magicpolitik as he didn't know about the formidable shadow baby 

 

[Arthur Peres]

3 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Taking Dorne for granted is not good diplomacy but he is gunning for the same goal as then (downfall of the Lannisters). He has Mace watching his back with an army while the Dornish are in their passes. He received Robb and opened negotiations. The Vale wasn't even willing to negotiate with Catelyn herself. They are a non issue at this point. 

Diplomacy wasn't his main strategy. It was secondary. He was intending to bludgeon or threaten to bludgeon everyone to stepping back in line underneath his rule. The fact he is smart enough to reject Stannis' offer because he'd lose Mace while still rewarding Stannis with SE shows me his grasp on diplomacy and realpolitik isn't bad at all. You can, however, criticize his magicpolitik as he didn't know about the formidable shadow baby 

 

I agree with you on Stannis. But even when he is making concessions in search for alliance and making peace with his brother, he keeps insulting him. He is a very poorly diplomate, so much so that he even threats Stannis without realising because of his poorly words. He is more concern in playing petty games like making Stannis wait than to go to the point.

He receives Catelyn and he offers her nothing... He talks about giving her justice and revenge, but he let clear to her that he won't move his army. He talks about reward but he offers nothing that Robb doesn't have already. He would let her go with warning threat. She came looking for a alliance and would have leave with a warning

If he is willing to make his move with Highgarden and Storm's end alone, he should act while he has the moment.

18 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

And yet no one else in the castle found out about it, not even the other KG or servants. We see 6 people find out out of the hundreds of sworn swords, KG, lords at court, and various servants. That is a tiny percentage.

Who knows how many people finded it out. After thinking a little names like Lysa, Lancel and Hugh also start to pop up...is not very hard. it's not like we have the pov or dialogue of every server in the castle.

[Universal Sword Donor]

20 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

I agree with you on Stannis. But even when he is making concessions in search for alliance and making peace with his brother, he keeps insulting him. He is a very poorly diplomate, so much so that he even threats Stannis without realising because of his poorly words. He is more concern in playing petty games like making Stannis wait than to go to the point.

Stannis, the 'inflexible', poor with people newly crowned king, took it as as a threat. Renly corrects him, so it really comes down to who you believe. Renly is definitely mocking Stannis in that entire conversation.

20 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

He receives Catelyn and he offers her nothing... He talks about giving her justice and revenge, but he let clear to her that he won't move his army. He talks about reward but he offers nothing that Robb doesn't have already. He would let her go with warning threat. She came looking for a alliance and would have leave with a warning

If he is willing to make his move with Highgarden and Storm's end alone, he should act while he has the moment.

His plan was to let Stark and Lannister beat each other to pulp and let KL eat itself alive. The slow methodical approach means he is alienating no one until he is forced into battle. That's why Robb sent Catelyn in the first place. Robb had an alliance offer, just not the one he wanted. Negotiations take time. Henry V spent months negotiation with John the Fearless just for him not to show up during the Agincourt campaign.

20 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Who knows how many people finded it out. After thinking a little names like Lysa, Lancel and Hugh also start to pop up...is not very hard. it's not like we have the pov or dialogue of every server in the castle.

Lysa knows because LF told her, though I dont' recall where it's certain if she knows. Lancel gives no indication that he knows, and Jaime privately muses what would happen if he told Lancel. Hugh .... gives zero indication of knowing and GRRM leaves it wide open as to why he dies (in book and in SSM)

[Arthur Peres]

9 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

His plan was to let Stark and Lannister beat each other to pulp and let KL eat itself alive. The slow methodical approach means he is alienating no one until he is forced into battle. That's why Robb sent Catelyn in the first place. Robb had an alliance offer, just not the one he wanted. Negotiations take time. Henry V spent months negotiation with John the Fearless just for him not to show up during the Agincourt campaign.

I know that, but that can go very wrong.

Just to give a example, Stalin wanted the British Empire and the Nazi Germany to destroy each other, he failed and Germany grew much stronger in the process. The Starks could beat the Lannisters decisive or the other way around. 

13 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Lysa knows because LF told her, though I dont' recall where it's certain if she knows. Lancel gives no indication that he knows, and Jaime privately muses what would happen if he told Lancel. Hugh .... gives zero indication of knowing and GRRM leaves it wide open as to why he dies (in book and in SSM)

Fine, take Kevan then.

[Angel Eyes]

This is why I personally don't like Renly.

He's leapfrogging the line of succession, and caused dissent amongst any and all forces who might stand a chance against the Lannisters. If Renly hadn't declared himself King, Robb wouldn't have felt the need to either.

He's a hypocrite. He doesn't seem to buy the accusation that Robert's children are incest-born bastards, and in fact accuses Stannis of spreading the lie to become king himself. The trouble is that Renly is trying to replace Cersei with Margaery Tyrell, which implies he... does know, otherwise why is he trying this hair-brained scheme of getting Margaery into Robert's bed by saying that Margaery looks like Lyanna Stark to Lyanna's brother Ned, who is the only remaining person who best remembers what she looked like? (that's not going to score points with Ned).

He would have been happy to slaughter Stannis, and one of the reasons why Stannis dislikes him is that Renly shows him no respect as a brother. The reason why Stannis was part of Robert's Rebellion is that he owed Robert as a younger brother. If Stannis hadn't held Storm's End there, the Tyrells would have slaughtered Renly.

Renly has no respect for the people; he says he'd be a good king and yet he lays siege to King's Landing leading to riots. He doesn't even allow a Great Council to decide the succession. Stannis does care about the people, why else does he go up to the Wall to fight wildlings and the wights?

He also mocks his niece Shireen and his bodyguard Brienne, and even repeats the lies about Shireen just to make Stannis mad.

[Universal Sword Donor]

29 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

This is why I personally don't like Renly.

He's leapfrogging the line of succession, and caused dissent amongst any and all forces who might stand a chance against the Lannisters. If Renly hadn't declared himself King, Robb wouldn't have felt the need to either.

From a reader's perspective, yes.

From Westerosi perspective he's skipping the line of succession by crowning himself or recognizing Stannis as king.

29 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

He's a hypocrite. He doesn't seem to buy the accusation that Robert's children are incest-born bastards, and in fact accuses Stannis of spreading the lie to become king himself. The trouble is that Renly is trying to replace Cersei with Margaery Tyrell, which implies he... does know, otherwise why is he trying this hair-brained scheme of getting Margaery into Robert's bed by saying that Margaery looks like Lyanna Stark to Lyanna's brother Ned, who is the only remaining person who best remembers what she looked like? (that's not going to score points with Ned).

Or he was trying to get Cersei out of a position of power because he thinks the Lannisters want him dead. Cersei definitely does. Connecting the dots from the admittedly weak Marg scheme -- Cersei was worried about being set aside -- to his desire to have Ned be Lord Protector and Regent of Joffrey doesn't strike me as any evidence of him knowing about the twincest.

29 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

He would have been happy to slaughter Stannis, and one of the reasons why Stannis dislikes him is that Renly shows him no respect as a brother. The reason why Stannis was part of Robert's Rebellion is that he owed Robert as a younger brother. If Stannis hadn't held Storm's End there, the Tyrells would have slaughtered Renly.

Stannis expects blind adherence to tradition. Renly wants a meritocracy. He offers Stannis quite the prize after Stannis attacked him. Pretty much no one likes Stannis and Stannis doesn't like many people either. We have no idea if Tyrell would have slaughtered Renly. Stannis and Renly would have been excellent hostages against the rebels, worth far more alive than dead.

29 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Renly has no respect for the people; he says he'd be a good king and yet he lays siege to King's Landing leading to riots. He doesn't even allow a Great Council to decide the succession. Stannis does care about the people, why else does he go up to the Wall to fight wildlings and the wights?

He also mocks his niece Shireen and his bodyguard Brienne, and even repeats the lies about Shireen just to make Stannis mad.

Stannis had to be convinced by Davos to care about the kingdom. And he specifically calls out the kingdom, not the small folk. We have no idea what Renly would have done after blackwater or SE if he had lived. He was using a blockade as a military strategy. He'd argue it was for the long term health of the kingdom, to save .  War hurts the common folk but the repeated refrain throughout all of this is that no one particularly cares about them.

[Universal Sword Donor]

41 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

I know that, but that can go very wrong.

Just to give a example, Stalin wanted the British Empire and the Nazi Germany to destroy each other, he failed and Germany grew much stronger in the process. The Starks could beat the Lannisters decisive or the other way around. 

The Starks cannot really grow stronger in the interim. The Lannisters had already lost at Oxcross by the time of the parlay.

41 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Fine, take Kevan then.

Kevan figured it out after the letter had gone and Cersei went full paranoia. Even so, it's one man in a large group

[Arthur Peres]

2 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The Starks cannot really grow stronger in the interim. The Lannisters had already lost at Oxcross by the time of the parlay.

Oxcross only happened after it. Tarly even calls Robb coward for not taking the field, and Catelyn says something about another Lannister army in Casterly Rock.

The North still wasn't attacked by the Ironborn at this point. Robb could call more men if needed, his men would also be much more expirenced now. The Riverlord with more time could also reorganize their troops. The prestige of Robb would go sky high, he could hire mercenaries and soo on.

Tywin himself beat the riverlands without big losses.

Just because someone is fighting does not mean they're getting weaker.

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

3 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Oxcross only happened after it. Tarly even calls Robb coward for not taking the field, and Catelyn says something about another Lannister army in Casterly Rock.

The North still wasn't attacked by the Ironborn at this point. Robb could call more men if needed, his men would also be much more expirenced now. The Riverlord with more time could also reorganize their troops. The prestige of Robb would go sky high, he could hire mercenaries and soo on.

Tywin himself beat the riverlands without big losses.

Just because someone is fighting does not mean they're getting weaker.

Tarly calls her out for not executing Jaime, and she replies he's been actually fighting not holding tourneys. He wanted Robb to declare fealty himself. I can't find mention of another Lannister host in that conversation. That's irrelevant either way since Oxcross had happened before the parlay, they just didn't know it. Bitterbridge to SE is at least few weeks away. KL doesn't find out about Oxcross until after Renly dies.

Those men would have taken months to assemble and get down to the RL and it's not like Robb would have an entirely new host of 20K either. He took the creme of the crop with him.  The RL are half torn between defending their lands and listening to Edmure/Robb. Edmure mustered 11K for the battle of the fords, which is soon after Oxcross. How many more troops he has to spare we don't know but he had a while to marshal those. We don't know if Robb has the coin to hire mercenaries, if there are mercenaries, or if they would join him over Tywin. More to the point we see how difficult it is to get reinforcements from overseas (golden companies, bracken & myrish crossbowmen). 

Tywin fought the Riverlands with 35K men and lost more than 15K. That's hardly insignificant. 

But generally yes, staying in the field longer, let alone fighting, assures they are getting weaker barring extraordinary circumstances. We see deserters, men begging to return home, men too injured or sick to march, and death from disease all throughout the books, specifically referring to armies. The only army we see that increases its numbers after its initial deployment is Stannis and that's because a dozen lords switched sides after Renly's death. Everyone else's army gradually decreases in numbers, from battle or other causes, or is taking part in a siege which serves as a rallying point (see Stannis and Rodrik near winterfell). 

[Arthur Peres]

6 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

 Tywin fought the Riverlands with 35K men and lost more than 15K. That's hardly insignificant. 

 

I was talking before Robb shows up. Tywin had 35k men in the beggining.  After that he won a decisive victory, capture several castles and siege riverrun, and he still had 35k. Without Robb, Tywin would crush the riverlands without losses.

9 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

We don't know if Robb has the coin to hire mercenaries, if there are mercenaries, or if they would join him over Tywin. More to the point we see how difficult it is to get reinforcements from overseas (golden companies, bracken & myrish crossbowmen). 

Well, if Robb beats Tywin and wins his war he would demand coin. He also could get more gold through ransons.

[Universal Sword Donor]

10 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

I was talking before Robb shows up. Tywin had 35k men in the beggining.  After that he won a decisive victory, capture several castles and siege riverrun, and he still had 35k. Without Robb, Tywin would crush the riverlands without losses.

Well, if Robb beats Tywin and wins his war he would demand coin. He also could get more gold through ransons.

Tywin definitely took the RL by storm, sweeping through a defenseless (or severely underdefended) region while its LP was immobile and attacked a party under the King's banner. Tywin did to the RL what Robb did to Tywin, catch his enemies unawares.

If Robb beats and captures Tywin, then he can demand coin but he lacks the men to take CR and H2H he has slightly more men than Tywin. It's a long shot for that kind of victory to work. That was why Renly's plan had some merit. Let two relatively even opponents beat each other up while he gathers his strength.  His army is large enough and has enough quality that a decisive victory by either side still leaves him strong enough to overwhelm the winner, secure KL, garrison taken castles, and open up multiple theaters of war that his enemies can't defend as well as he can attack them.

Had I been Renly, I'd have sent a solid chunk of my troops north to do what Robb did but ideally he doesn't have to burn and pillage bordering regions. 

[Angel Eyes]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

From a reader's perspective, yes.

From Westerosi perspective he's skipping the line of succession by crowning himself or recognizing Stannis as king.

Or he was trying to get Cersei out of a position of power because he thinks the Lannisters want him dead. Cersei definitely does. Connecting the dots from the admittedly weak Marg scheme -- Cersei was worried about being set aside -- to his desire to have Ned be Lord Protector and Regent of Joffrey doesn't strike me as any evidence of him knowing about the twincest.

Stannis expects blind adherence to tradition. Renly wants a meritocracy. He offers Stannis quite the prize after Stannis attacked him. Pretty much no one likes Stannis and Stannis doesn't like many people either. We have no idea if Tyrell would have slaughtered Renly. Stannis and Renly would have been excellent hostages against the rebels, worth far more alive than dead.

Stannis had to be convinced by Davos to care about the kingdom. And he specifically calls out the kingdom, not the small folk. We have no idea what Renly would have done after blackwater or SE if he had lived. He was using a blockade as a military strategy. He'd argue it was for the long term health of the kingdom, to save .  War hurts the common folk but the repeated refrain throughout all of this is that no one particularly cares about them.

But nobody sets aside a 15-year-marriage without major backlash. Only a zealot like Baelor the Blessed divorced his wife, and that’s because he had nothing to lose by divorcing his sister. Tywin Lannister on the other hand foots half the crown’s bill, and put two houses six feet under for rebellion, how well will he take a slight like a daughter being set aside?

Renly may talk meritocracy, and yet he insults them behind their backs. 

 

[Trigger Warning]

Pure temptation right here. 

[Arthur Peres]

45 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

 Had I been Renly, I'd have sent a solid chunk of my troops north to do what Robb did but ideally he doesn't have to burn and pillage bordering regions. 

All Renly needed was to capture the city. Almost all his problems would be resolved there.

He gets the throne, holding the city gives him more legitimacy, and he needs it. He can also pose as the savior of the city, by letting the suplies in.

He gets Sansa and Ice, it could be used to force Robb to swear fealty. In his place I would even turn him Joffrey alive if possible, let the northem have their own justice.

He gets the Redwynes. with it's fleet he can now blocked Lannisport, invade Dragonstone, supplie the Castle of Storm's end by sea, or ivande the Iron islands. 

He gets glory and prestige for a easy military victory.

He would still have to face Tywin, but the Lannister would be badly outnumbered and without any ally.

[Universal Sword Donor]

2 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

But nobody sets aside a 15-year-marriage without major backlash. Only a zealot like Baelor the Blessed divorced his wife, and that’s because he had nothing to lose by divorcing his sister. Tywin Lannister on the other hand foots half the crown’s bill, and put two houses six feet under for rebellion, how well will he take a slight like a daughter being set aside?

I agree with you on this one. It would be a foolish thing to do, but there are a few things going for it:

1) Cersei is worried about being set aside

2) Robert is pretty much

2 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Renly may talk meritocracy, and yet he insults them behind their backs. 

In this particular vein, the meritocracy starts with Renly and goes where he sees fit (e.g. Loras as leading the van)

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

All Renly needed was to capture the city. Almost all his problems would be resolved there.

He gets the throne, holding the city gives him more legitimacy, and he needs it. He can also pose as the savior of the city, by letting the suplies in.

He gets Sansa and Ice, it could be used to force Robb to swear fealty. In his place I would even turn him Joffrey alive if possible, let the northem have their own justice.

He gets the Redwynes. with it's fleet he can now blocked Lannisport, invade Dragonstone, supplie the Castle of Storm's end by sea, or ivande the Iron islands. 

He gets glory and prestige for a easy military victory.

He would still have to face Tywin, but the Lannister would be badly outnumbered and without any ally.

See if he takes the city ASAP, he has little control over what happens to the inhabitants. There is no guarantee that Sansa would survive or that he would recover ice. Ilyn Payne was commanded to kill Cersei and Sansa if Stannis took the city. It wouldn't be any different with Renly.

He already has half of the Redwyne twins and Horas fights in the BotB (and gets hurt). The downside of the Redwyne fleet is that it's months away from DS and SE. Would be quite useful to blockade the Lannisters but the IB are a complete wild card.

The biggest issues I see with going for the jugular are:

1) Tommen is outside of KL at Rosby

2) Tywin can take Renly's army in the rear unless Renly puts a massive army on the KR

3) KL is basically revolting and starving. Bringing food that far will require barges and ships that Renly hasn't collected yet. It took a while for food to start coming into KL. It was also Stannis' biggest issue if he took KL. He'd be stuck besieged in a city with no way to feed his army and the population. Same situation forced the crusaders to fight at Antioch but Tywin's army is much better led than Kerbogha's was.