Heresy 214 The Last Heretic

[St Daga]

5 hours ago, SirArthur said:

This is mainly ignored in discussions in favour of our corn king. In the most extreme case (which includes dornish law), the real throne claimant "king/queen" could even be Rhaenys' ghost in the fat black tomcat Arya chases. 

So here is my little bit of Rhaenys is alive and she is Arianne tinfoil. I don't have much, so this won't take too long, I promise!

Part of this ties to the hints we have in the story about Targaryen's and cats or kittens, most especially. We know that Princess Rhaenys had her black kitten named Balerion, and this is probably the cat that grew to be the fierce black tom cat in the Red Keep, the cat that stole Tywin's quail right off his dinner plate. I love that cat! Of course, this could imply that some part of Rhaenys could live on in that cat, and I totally like that concept, too.

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"Rhaenys was a child too. Prince Rhaegar's daughter. A precious little thing, younger than your girls. She had a small black kitten she called Balerion, did you know? I always wondered what happened to him. Rhaenys liked to pretend he was the true Balerion, the Black Dread of old, but I imagine the Lannisters taught her the difference between a kitten and a dragon quick enough, the day they broke down her door." AGOT-Eddard XV

Rhaenys had her black kitten Balerion. This is what we know of Rhaenys' death! 

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This time, Ned resolved to keep his temper. "Your Grace, the girl is scarcely more than a child. You are no Tywin Lannister, to slaughter innocents." It was said that Rhaegar's little girl had cried as they dragged her from beneath her bed to face the swords. The boy had been no more than a babe in arms, yet Lord Tywin's soldiers had torn him from his mother's breast and dashed his head against a wall. AGOT-Eddard II

Then this...

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Ser Amory was almost as bestial with Rhaenys. I asked him afterward why it had required half a hundred thrusts to kill a girl of . . . two? Three? He said she'd kicked him and would not stop screaming. If Lorch had half the wits the gods gave a turnip, he would have calmed her with a few sweet words and used a soft silk pillow." His mouth twisted in distaste. ASOS-Tyrion VI

and 

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"I am not lying. Ser Amory dragged Princess Rhaenys out from under her father's bed and stabbed her to death. He had some men-at-arms with him, but I do not know their names." He leaned forward. "It was Ser Gregor Clegane who smashed Prince Aegon's head against a wall and raped your sister Elia with his blood and brains still on his hands." ASOS-Tyrion IX

So, Rhaenys had her black kitten, which she named after a mighty Targaryen dragon.She was in Maegor's Holdfast, probably in a tower room. She was hiding under a bed, dragged from beneath it, and brutally murdered. It all makes horrible sense, and it fits what we are told. According to an SSM by GRRM, who stated that Rhaenys looked like a Martell, so most likely she had dark hair, dark eyes and her complexion was probably medium or olive, in the way of the 

And I never gave all the information about Rhaenys death a second thought until this passage caught my attention.

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She must look a wretched creature. Arianne crawled from the bed, weak as a kitten. "Have Morra and Mellei prepare a bath," she told him, "and tell Timoth to bring me up some food. Nothing heavy. Some cold broth and a bit of bread and fruit." AFFC-The Princess in the Tower.

So, Arianne Martell is quite lovely, with dark hair, dark eyes. Her two POV's in Feast are not listed by her name, but as The Queenmaker, when she attempts to crown Marcella as Queen, and then as The Princess in the Tower. And I thought, hey, Rhaenys was a princess in a tower, she is associated with being drug out from under a bed, while Arianne is crawling from bed, but that seems an interesting coincidence. Weak as a kitten and the princess with a kitten! 

It's pretty loose, I admit. But the phrasing of Arianne and the bed and weak as a kitten is something I have a hard time ignoring. Most people think I am nuts, and I probably am, especially since GRRM has pretty much declared the Princess Rhaenys murdered. But what if she was snuck out  of Kings Landing? What if she made it to Dorne? What better place for Doran to hide her than in plain site, but under an assumed identity!

I find the idea very ironic that if Arianne is Rhaenys, then she actually tried to place another person on her throne, and using Dornish laws of inheritance to do. Ironic because she would have been accidentally using Myrcella to usurp her own throne, at least by Dornish law, as Rhaegar's eldest child. In the conversation between Doran and Arianne in The Princess in the Tower chapter, "promise" comes up several times in regards to Arianne and we know that the "Prince that was Promised" is an old Targaryen prophecy, at least according to Maester Aemon. And Doran clutches a onyx dragon (black dragon=Balerion), presses it into Arianne's hand and tells her "Fire and Blood". What is more Targaryen than a black dragon and fire and blood?

As I said, GRRM took almost all of the wind out of my sails on this, but part of me holds it deep in my tinfoil drawer. I haven't read the Arianne (finally using her name for her POV chapter) in Winds, so there might be information there the destroys my theory even more. But part of this is the fun of trying to figure out what GRRM is plotting, and so even if I am wrong, I will continue to look into the text for things that might be clues.

[St Daga]

7 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I find it really interest that you associated the Titan of Braavos with Winterfell, er rather that Arya does, because I’ve identified the Titan as parallel to Walder Frey - the Lord of the Croosing. The passages you’ve described connect Walder as being responsible for Arya’s mother and brother’s deaths. They are the two “stars” of Winterfell.

I totally get the parallel between Walder Frey and the Titan, in the sense that they guard or control a water way. Perhaps even in the sense that they are guardians of a sort but willing to fight and defend their people/families. But I am not sure I see the connection to Robb and Catelyn as the fires in the Titan's eyes, which would relate to two stars of Winterfell. Especially since Catelyn was not supposed to be killed at the Red Wedding, only taken as a hostage. And would they be blue stars instead of red fires? Perhaps I am looking at it too hard?

Is it possible that the inversion to the water and land of Essos is the land and water of Westeros. If the Titan stands on two pieces of land and lets people pass beneath him on the water, that perhaps somewhere in Westeros we have two bodes of water with a passage of land between them, and someone allows the passage of people by this land. This reminds me a bit of the idea of the neck. Who controls the neck but Howland Reed, with Moat Cailin at the top, guarding the north if they get through the neck.. I don't know if Howland has stone imagery about him, but he does have bronze, in his scaled shirt. Of course, Walder Frey certainly could be seen to be associated with the neck, as well. I am just trying to feel it out, I guess.

ETA: After thinking on it a bit more, the fire in the Titan's eyes does fit the vengeance in Walder Frey. His intention was only to have Robb killed which fit's the one fire, but then Catelyn is also killed, which leads to the imagery of one fire becoming two!

[SirArthur]

4 hours ago, St Daga said:

I find the idea very ironic that if Arianne is Rhaenys, then she actually tried to place another person on her throne, and using Dornish laws of inheritance to do.

I have looked into it some time ago and as far as I can tell, Arianne is too old. Rhaenys is in that weird spot just before the big birth explosion (of known characters) during the rebellion. We have discussed the age difference between Rob and Jon and Rhaenys has not 1 year but 4 years towards Arianne. 

[St Daga]

12 hours ago, SirArthur said:

17 hours ago, St Daga said:

I find the idea very ironic that if Arianne is Rhaenys, then she actually tried to place another person on her throne, and using Dornish laws of inheritance to do.

I have looked into it some time ago and as far as I can tell, Arianne is too old. Rhaenys is in that weird spot just before the big birth explosion (of known characters) during the rebellion. We have discussed the age difference between Rob and Jon and Rhaenys has not 1 year but 4 years towards Arianne. 

I admit the age thing is an argument against the theory. But just because Arianne thinks she is 23, that doesn't mean she really is 23. There is something so strongly hinting at some kind of baby swap with all those children at the water gardens. Of course, it certainly could be many people besides Arianne. That is the only way I could see it happening, and still, it would be a stretch to pass this swap off, considering the ages the girls would have been!

Arianne is interesting to me, since she is considered quite beautiful. We don't know what Mellario looks like, but Doran is just a regular dude. Perhaps Arianne get's her looks from her mother. Areo certainly thinks she get's her short stature from Mellario, and her looks.

I will admit to wondering if that line about Arianne crawling from her bed, weak as a kitten, is just GRRM teasing his fan base a bit, and I took the bait, hook, line and sinker! Perhaps the words are just meant to serve as a reminder that the Martell's feel like they deserve some revenge, reminding us of the terrible deaths of Elia's children!

 

[JNR]

21 hours ago, alienarea said:

In case he intended Aegon to be real, and have a dance with dragons between him and Daenerys, Jon being R+L would be Targaryen overkill, wouldn't it be?

You mean artistically?  I would think so, yeah. 

To be fair, GRRM does often resort to what I would consider overkill.  Snowfyre once did a whole thread on nothing but GRRM's he's-dead-oh-wait-he's-not-really-dead plot device, and came up with dozens of examples.  (I would also say he overuses the device of characters who have identity problems and whose chapter titles reflect that.)

But since I don't believe Jon's parents are Rhaegar and Lyanna, I don't think that's a problem for GRRM; I think he always knew the answer to that mystery.

As to what exactly GRRM's new problem is? That might make an interesting Heresy thread.  Any good candidate would have to:

• Be something he never thought of until recent years, yet set up well enough anyway that it would seem organic if GRRM rolled it out

• Involve multiple storylines in TWOW (as we know it to exist, anyway)

• Be cool enough that GRRM would bother going to that trouble, knowing it would delay TWOW quite a bit... even though he is already  becoming the most resented writer in F/SF history because of his delays

 

[SirArthur]

2 hours ago, St Daga said:

I will admit to wondering if that line about Arianne crawling from her bed, weak as a kitten, is just GRRM teasing his fan base a bit, and I took the bait, hook, line and sinker! Perhaps the words are just meant to serve as a reminder that the Martell's feel like they deserve some revenge, reminding us of the terrible deaths of Elia's children!

The age difference is bigger than between Sansa and Arya. Saying that I realise that Jeyne Poole should have the age of Sansa and one of my theories is that Arya poses as Jeyne Poole posing as Arya. 

Hmm. There is definitly a strange element about the age difference between Arya and Jeyne, when Jon and Robb discuss their age. It's almost like Jeyne is the fake that should be unmasked. 

I feel the only thing that saves the Arianne-Rhaenys idea is Jeyne posing as Arya. This definitly opens up a lot of possibilities. The same age gap would also go in the other direction with Rhaenys->Margaery.

Double hmm. 

[St Daga]

5 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

The age difference is bigger than between Sansa and Arya. Saying that I realise that Jeyne Poole should have the age of Sansa and one of my theories is that Arya poses as Jeyne Poole posing as Arya. 

Hmm. There is definitly a strange element about the age difference between Arya and Jeyne, when Jon and Robb discuss their age. It's almost like Jeyne is the fake that should be unmasked. 

I feel the only thing that saves the Arianne-Rhaenys idea is Jeyne posing as Arya. The definitly opens up a lot of possibilities. The same age gap would also go in the other direction with Rhaenys->Margaery.

Double hmm.

Do we know how old Jeyne Poole is? I assume she is Sansa's age because they are such good friends, but it would be interesting if she was actually older than Sansa by a year or two. My best friend is two years older than me. Arguably, I guess that Jeyne could also be younger than Sansa. I have never given it much thought at all, honestly. And although Jeyne seems to be successfully believed to be Arya, I am not sure how many people really believe that the true Arya Stark has fallen into Bolton hands. (even though, ironically at Harrenhal, she did) And this switch was made after theses girls were supposedly older, but it still happened. You make a really good point, and it's one I have never even considered before. 

 

[St Daga]

2 hours ago, JNR said:

To be fair, GRRM does often resort to what I would consider overkill.  Snowfyre once did a whole thread on nothing but GRRM's he's-dead-oh-wait-he's-not-really-dead plot device, and came up with dozens of examples.  (I would also say he overuses the device of characters who have identity problems and whose chapter titles reflect that.)

I will have to see if I can find this thread that you are referring too! Does it ever go into the oddness of Ned's death? Sometimes, most recently when I was rereading Tyrion's escape from the black cells, I wonder if it's possible that GRRM somehow got the Neddard out of KL, too? Like 98% of me believes Ned's death is legit, but a little bit of me wonders. But GRRM has gotten so much traction over the years for the death of Ned, who seemed to be the major protagonist of the story, that even if he wanted to put that storyline  in reverse, I think the world might revolt! I am sure that 2% of hope just is me clinging to how much I liked Ned's character and has no basis in this fictional reality...

Still, for a man who has made a bit of a big deal about the death of characters, we have several examples of "oops, I was kidding, that was just a chapter break". The Hound will be a big one, if the Grave Digger turns out to be Sandor!

[St Daga]

2 hours ago, JNR said:

As to what exactly GRRM's new problem is? That might make an interesting Heresy thread.  Any good candidate would have to:

• Be something he never thought of until recent years, yet set up well enough anyway that it would seem organic if GRRM rolled it out

• Involve multiple storylines in TWOW (as we know it to exist, anyway)

• Be cool enough that GRRM would bother going to that trouble, knowing it would delay TWOW quite a bit... even though he is already  becoming the most resented writer in F/SF history because of his delays

This would make a very good discussion topic!

 

[Melifeather]

3 minutes ago, St Daga said:

This would make a very good discussion topic!

 

Why wait? Go ahead and discuss now. We need to finish Heresy 214 by Christmas so BC can start fresh with 215.

[Brad Stark]

On 12/8/2018 at 1:28 PM, St Daga said:

This is interesting. It certainly vaguely denies any answer about Aegon, while telling us with "no doubt" that Rhaenys was slain. I have seen this before, and I must say I have some tinfoil that Rhaenys did survive, so this has always deflated my nice oragami tinfoil about Rhaenys. Of course, it's Aegon we are talking about, and I would agree that GRRM has had baby Aegon's survival on his mind for a long time now. Whether Aegon turns out to be Young Griff/Aegon or some other character, it is hard to say. Honestly, as far as Young Griff goes, I have bounced back and forth like a ping pong ball about whether he is the real deal or red herring. Still can't decide!

This quote could also hint that GRRM is purposely leading us down the path of Aegon's survival, wanting us to take the bait and bite down. But what his ultimate purpose would be in this case, I really can't say.

It is evidence either Aegon survived or someone is pretending to be Aegon, the 2nd I still think is more likely. 

[JNR]

1 hour ago, St Daga said:

I will have to see if I can find this thread that you are referring too! Does it ever go into the oddness of Ned's death?

Here it is.  He begins the whole discussion by talking about Ned, in fact... though he doesn't nominate Ned as a candidate.

He also doesn't list Syrio Forel, I'm sure because we don't really know Syrio's fate.  But I've always thought there's a great chance Syrio is still alive.

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

Why wait? Go ahead and discuss now.

OK, here's the list of qualifications (I'm adding some new ones):

• Must be something GRRM never thought of until recent years, yet set up well enough anyway that it would seem organic if GRRM rolled it out

• Must involve multiple storylines in TWOW (as we know it to exist, anyway)

• Must be cool enough -- "a great twist" -- that GRRM would bother going to that trouble, knowing it would delay TWOW quite a bit... even though he is already becoming the most resented writer in F/SF history because of his delays

• Can't be something the show could do, or could have done as of about two years ago, because they killed a character GRRM has not killed

I also have the impression (but am not sure) that GRRM feels he "painted himself into a bit of a corner over this," and even though it's not impossible as it is on the show, he still wishes he hadn't killed some character who's connected to it all.

[SirArthur]

13 minutes ago, JNR said:

I also have the impression (but am not sure) that GRRM feels he "painted himself into a bit of a corner over this," and even though it's not impossible as it is on the show, he still wishes he hadn't killed some character who's connected to it all.

I don't know if Hoster Tully is the dead character who shouldn't be dead. He is in a great position for deeply embedded twists.

[Matthew.]

14 minutes ago, JNR said:

OK, here's the list of qualifications (I'm adding some new ones):

• Must be something GRRM never thought of until recent years, yet set up well enough anyway that it would seem organic if GRRM rolled it out

• Must involve multiple storylines in TWOW (as we know it to exist, anyway)

• Must be cool enough -- "a great twist" -- that GRRM would bother going to that trouble, knowing it would delay TWOW quite a bit... even though he is already becoming the most resented writer in F/SF history because of his delays

• Can't be something the show could do, or could have done as of about two years ago, because they killed a character GRRM has not killed

I would add two more things:

- He made the comment about deciding on the twist (with the note that the show couldn't do it) before Season 6 had aired; granted, it had, by that point, been written and filmed, so he might have been referencing a character he knew would die in the show, but starting off by analyzing characters that died in season 1 - 5 might be a good starting place

- And, with that in mind, here's a useful list from GRRM himself from his notablog in early 2016:

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Just consider. Mago, Irri, Rakharo, Xaro Xhoan Daxos, Pyat Pree, Pyp, Grenn, Ser Barristan Selmy, Queen Selyse, Princess Shireen, Princess Myrcella, Mance Rayder, and King Stannis are all dead in the show, alive in the books.

Theoretically, Jojen should be in that list as well... unless Jojen Paste turns out to be true. 

[Brad Stark]

6 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

I would add two more things:

- He made the comment about deciding on the twist (with the note that the show couldn't do it) before Season 6 had aired; granted, it had, by that point, been written and filmed, so he might have been referencing a character he knew would die in the show, but starting off by analyzing characters that died in season 1 - 5 might be a good starting place

- And, with that in mind, here's a useful list from GRRM himself from his notablog in early 2016:

Theoretically, Jojen should be in that list as well... unless Jojen Paste turns out to be true. 

Jojen's omission is almost proof of Jojen paste. 

[Matthew.]

32 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

Jojen's omission is almost proof of Jojen paste. 

I'm a Jojen Paste believer as well, though I'm trying not to read too much into his absence from GRRM's list.

In any case I'll use that as a starting point for the person that I think isn't involved in the new twist: Bran and his coterie.

Between Bran I AGOT being the first chapter that was actually written for the series, and Anne Groell saying she knows Bran's ending, I suspect that GRRM's ideas with Bran are among the most longstanding, and the most fundamental to ASOIAF itself--and, that, in turn, Bran is among the most "concrete" POVs, the most immune to authorial whimsy; while the rest of the story was growing in the telling and spinning out of control, Bran essentially spent three books moving from Point A to Point B with very little 'plot' in between, because (IMO) the author didn't want to do anything to throw his path off course, or to allow his narrative to become a mess. 

____

My totally unscientific, gut intuition is that I think either the Wall or the Battle of Winterfell are the two locations where he might have both introduced a new twist and underestimated the broader narrative consequences of introducing his new twist, though I see potential for Dorne and Vaes Dothrak as well.

Barristan raises the prospect of a new twist in Meereen, but I shudder to think of a world in which GRRM has decided to add a twist to the Meereenese Knot, a plot that he already didn't have a handle on in the first place; yikes. 

[Melifeather]

I seem to recall an SSM that confirmed Syrio is dead.

[JNR]

3 hours ago, Matthew. said:

Theoretically, Jojen should be in that list as well... unless Jojen Paste turns out to be true. 

Yes, I think he should be on it, because GRRM said Mance is alive in the books. 

Well, that's an interesting remark, isn't it?  We don't really know that; the letter Jon got could have lied.   We only know Mance was last seen alive, albeit in a very dangerous situation. 

So this seems to be GRRM's thinking: that a character is still considered "alive" if the character was not shown getting killed.  If applied to Book Jojen, it means that Book Jojen is alive for the purposes of this discussion and belongs on that list.

I also still think someone should bring Jojenpaste to market as a commercial toothpaste.  Mostly white, but shot through with crimson.

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

I seem to recall an SSM that confirmed Syrio is dead.

You probably have this in mind:

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Then people asked questions. Someone asked if Syrio was dead. And he said to "draw your own conclusions" based on the fact that his sword was broken, etc, which I took to mean yes.

Well, this is GRRM being GRRM.  He's evasive, he misleads, but the truth is the floor of that room was littered with steel swords. And Syrio was dramatically faster and more skilled than Trant.  And really, Syrio didn't even need to fight. 

All he had to do was delay Trant long enough to let Arya get away.   He probably could  literally have skipped around Trant in a circle for three minutes without ever even needing a blade. 

Then, mission accomplished, he could have sailed off to somewhere beyond Lannister power (like Braavos), and taken up a hobby (like writing bloody plays about how the Lannisters had just staged a coup).

[Matthew.]

Further thoughts: Which of the "dead in the show, alive in the books" characters are the most irreplaceable? Which characters are the ones whose specific biography and bloodline, plot relevance, and present status means they can play a role in a twist that would be impossible to shift to a different character?

For example, Xaro Xhoan Daxos might have some personal history with Dany, but is there any "great twist" that requires him, specifically, as opposed to some other powerful Qartheen merchant, in some alternate universe where the show is attempting to do an adapted version of a twist? Personally, I think not.

So, these are the characters whose roles that I think are the hardest to shift:

Stannis: Necessary for any twist that requires his authority over his army, possibly necessary for any twists involving Melisandre and Azor Ahai

Myrcella: Necessary for any twists that would play on the succession, or Dorne and Aegon VI using her against Cersei

Shireen: King's blood, possibly necessary for any new twists that would function as a plot against Stannis

Selyse: May be necessary for plots against Stannis; possibly necessary for any plots/conspiracies being executed by Melisandre that would require Selyse's authority, or any conspiracies that Selyse herself might plan.

Semi-Replaceable:

Mance: Tricky, as he's certainly an important character, but I think twists that broadly involve the Free Folk, Horn of Winter, or return of the Others could be shifted to other Free Folk characters; the one caveat is if Mance himself is the twist--eg, we learn something important about his parentage and bloodline.

Barristan: Perhaps the author could play off of his reputation to have him betray Dany, but I'm not sure this really rises to the level of "great twist," much less one that would have entirely thrown the book off the rails; possibly knows things about Aerys II or Rhaegar that other characters wouldn't know, but I still feel like that's a "replaceable" quality

I feel that everyone else (including Jojen) is not so unique as to be impossible to replace, assuming one is trying to pull off some mind blowing twist; of course, GRRM's subjective take is that the show was making a mistake by killing off Mago, so my definition of an "essential character" might differ greatly from GRRM's. 

[Brad Stark]

We are missing some key elements of Syrio's story.  His job is to protect the Sealord, but somehow he ends up hired by Ned in King's Landing.  Ned later regrets his decision and says pretty much anyone could train Arya.  Then we have the mystery of how a Faceless man got into the black cells, the same man who takes an interest in Syrio's protégé.

The obvious interpretation is Syrio was captured and sent to the black cells after his fight with the wooden sword.  But either way we have a lot unanswered.