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Heresy 214 The Last Heretic


Melifeather

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14 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

I saw that, but we were discussing who GRRM killed, but now needs, and is the reason for the delay of Winds.

Yes, but I thought all of those things were covered in the initial question that @JNR had posted.

On 12/9/2018 at 1:46 PM, JNR said:

OK, here's the list of qualifications (I'm adding some new ones):

Must be something GRRM never thought of until recent years, yet set up well enough anyway that it would seem organic if GRRM rolled it out

Must involve multiple storylines in TWOW (as we know it to exist, anyway)

Must be cool enough -- "a great twist" -- that GRRM would bother going to that trouble, knowing it would delay TWOW quite a bit... even though he is already becoming the most resented writer in F/SF history because of his delays

Can't be something the show could do, or could have done as of about two years ago, because they killed a character GRRM has not killed

I also have the impression (but am not sure) that GRRM feels he "painted himself into a bit of a corner over this," and even though it's not impossible as it is on the show, he still wishes he hadn't killed some character who's connected to it all.

Partially because in those article quotes that I listed above referenced GRRM's great twist that involved a dead character from the show who is not dead in the books, and also that GRRM seems to think this is a great twist was worth slowing down his finishing Winds by a couple years.  I mentioned that I didn't know if it had anything to do with Gabaldon's comments. I was addressing the questions listed above, while stating I wondered if it was or was not possible that this "great twist" involved Gabaldon's comments or not. Sorry if that confused the issues.

 

And now it's time for work, so I will be ducking out for several days. :cheers:

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32 minutes ago, St Daga said:

Well, term pregnancies can be between 38 and 42 weeks (although until recently, this definition was 37-42wks), so a normal pregnancy can be much shorter, as well. I agree, it could also be longer than average. And I did mention above that we have no idea what Rhaella's previous pregnancy lengths might have been. Some women deliver well before 38 weeks with no harm to baby or mother!

Ah, the definition I remember is that a pregnancy is considered late-term after 41 weeks and post-term after 42. Definitions probably varies by country (and time)

 

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51 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Are you conflating the two days and assuming Jaime saw Rhaella the morning after she was raped, because it doesn’t read that way. He said the next time he saw her was the morning of the day she left.

This interpretation is also interesting, as it would indicate Rhaella was hiding at least the time it took Darry to reach the Trident together with Rhaegar's army. I have two weeks travel time in my head, but I didn't find a book quote. The distance seems to be 500 miles, a roman army would have maybe needed 3-4 weeks for that distance. It would be faster if Rhaegar would have used ships. 

If the army was already there it would of course be faster. 

I find this interesting because the wounds should have somehow healed in that time. And if they didn't heal maybe that would explain why she died in child bed. Anyway, when calculating the pregnancy, the travel time should also be accounted for.

 

Also while researching, I found this random quote:

It was true. The Knight of Flowers could not have reached his second name day when Robert slew Prince Rhaegar on the Trident. Few of the others were very much older. 

That is oddly specific, almost as if someone has thought about ages between Rhaegar's son Aegon and Loras. Also Loras strangely enough fits the Rhaegar type of charmer. But there are no further indications, I just found it oddly specific. 

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4 hours ago, SirArthur said:

We certainly have to add a lot of head canon to fill the gaps, like morning/midnight, pie/turkey when everything else in Dany's memory is in order, not visible injuries but need for hood and cloak, a Targaryen informant in KL directly after the sack, when the maesters control the ravens. Remember that ravens are not a telegraph system. They have to be delivered first. 

Going to the ship ≠ sailing on the ship.  We have no idea how much time passed between these two events, or why.

Aerys would have had no apparent motive to send Rhaella to Dragonstone before he'd heard Rhaegar lost, since Rhaegar was expected to win.  That he sent her after the Trident is very well supported in various ways -- for instance, Ned asks the KG in his dream about Viserys "fleeing" to Dragonstone.  Before the Trident, Viserys was a prince who had nothing to flee.

Jaime hears a rumor that Rhaella's thighs were chewed and believes it.  Perhaps it was true, perhaps not; no one saw her thighs as far as I know.

There also doesn't seem to be much need for a Targ informant.  The events of the Sack were widespread public knowledge and there are endless ways such information could have come to Dany's ears.

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2 hours ago, St Daga said:

I guess this part is my timeline hang up. Rhaella's rape is tied to Chelsted's death, but Chelsted's death isn't necessarily tied to the Battle of the Trident.

Ah, well, I'm not at all sure Aerys only raped her once.  He certainly raped her after Chelstead burned, but I see no reason to conclude that was the beginning or end of it. 

Aerys was not a nice guy... and as I pointed out before, he would, right before sending her to Dragonstone, have had the motive of trying to sire another Targ heir as a hedge against his family's obliteration.  (He doesn't seem to have cared for Elia or her children because they weren't full-blood Targs, hence naming Viserys his heir.)

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40 minutes ago, St Daga said:

I mentioned that I didn't know if it had anything to do with Gabaldon's comments. I was addressing the questions listed above, while stating I wondered if it was or was not possible that this "great twist" involved Gabaldon's comments or not. Sorry if that confused the issues.

Yeah, like you, I'm very unsure whether the Gabaldon stuff is relevant to the "great twist."  It certainly might be, but we haven't been told that.

However, this is another qualification I forgot: that bit about how GRRM thought (at first, at least) that there were only "three, four" characters involved. 

That probably narrows things a bit.  Hrm...

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1 hour ago, JNR said:

Aerys was not a nice guy... and as I pointed out before, he would, right before sending her to Dragonstone, have had the motive of trying to sire another Targ heir as a hedge against his family's obliteration.  (He doesn't seem to have cared for Elia or her children because they weren't full-blood Targs, hence naming Viserys his heir.)

I find the entire Aerys mood comment from Jaime ( They slept apart and did their best to avoid each other during the waking hours. But whenever Aerys gave a man to the flames, Queen Rhaella would have a visitor in the night. ) funny in the context of this (did he burn someone when the news arrived ?) and more interesting in the context of A+J=T. What did he do to Joanna Lannister and did he have to burn someone ? Somehow the theory dodges the question. 

 

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18 hours ago, SirArthur said:

I find the entire Aerys mood comment from Jaime ( They slept apart and did their best to avoid each other during the waking hours. But whenever Aerys gave a man to the flames, Queen Rhaella would have a visitor in the night. ) funny in the context of this (did he burn someone when the news arrived ?) and more interesting in the context of A+J=T. What did he do to Joanna Lannister and did he have to burn someone ? Somehow the theory dodges the question. 

 

Aery's real turning point into madness was his capture during the Defiance of Dunkensdale in 277, and even after that he only got worse gradually. 

Jamie and Cersei were born in 266 and Tyrion in 273, so if he fathered any of them, he was much more sane than at the end of his life. 

Aerys also had many lovers and lost interest quickly, probably a very different relationship than with his wife. 

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16 hours ago, SirArthur said:

find the entire Aerys mood comment from Jaime ( They slept apart and did their best to avoid each other during the waking hours. But whenever Aerys gave a man to the flames, Queen Rhaella would have a visitor in the night. ) funny in the context of this (did he burn someone when the news arrived ?)

The canon certainly makes that a possibility, yes.

Canon reads, re Chelsted:

Quote

Aerys burnt him alive for that, and hung his chain about the neck of Rossart, his favorite pyromancer.

Canon reads re Rossart:

Quote

Queer that they never ask who killed Rossart . . . but of course, he was no one, lowborn, Hand for a fortnight, just another mad fancy of the Mad King.

Therefore, we know Rossart was only Hand for roughly two weeks, ending during the Sack when Jaime killed him.

That sure makes it sound as if Chelsted burned, Rossart appointed Hand, and Rhaella was raped by Aerys...all about a fortnight before the Sack. 

Well, that is just about when Aerys would have learned that Rhaegar was beaten at the Trident.

Which was also the event that led him to name Viserys his heir, and send Viserys and Rhaella to Dragonstone.  It's a chronological and common sense fit.

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19 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:
20 hours ago, St Daga said:

Yes, that is correct. Day 1 of pregnancy is counted from the first day of a women's last menstrual cycle. Conception usually occurs around day 14 of pregnancy cycle, depending on the length of a woman's cycle, at or near the end of week two. Fetal growth starts at conception, of course, but the pregnancy is determined to have started before this.

 

This shows that at 55 years of age people can still learn something new! :o

It's kind of an odd fact that I only stuck in my head because of my job. And it's not really logical, because it would make more sense if pregnancy (according to weeks, anyway) started at conception. I figure I learn something new every day, or I try to, but no more than one thing, because it might overload my brain if I try to put too much in at one time! :D

19 hours ago, Tucu said:
19 hours ago, St Daga said:

Well, term pregnancies can be between 38 and 42 weeks (although until recently, this definition was 37-42wks), so a normal pregnancy can be much shorter, as well. I agree, it could also be longer than average. And I did mention above that we have no idea what Rhaella's previous pregnancy lengths might have been. Some women deliver well before 38 weeks with no harm to baby or mother!

Ah, the definition I remember is that a pregnancy is considered late-term after 41 weeks and post-term after 42. Definitions probably varies by country (and time)

You are correct on those terms, as well. Term, which is technically 40 weeks, can also include 37-42 weeks, but then that section is divided up, just to make things more confusing! So 37 weeks to 38+6 is "early term", 39 weeks to 40+6 is "full term", the 41st week is "late term" and after 42 weeks is "post term". And all of these definitions might not mean anything much in this story, because  GRRM is making his whole world up, and he can do anything he wants with it. 

All this was probably not worth my mentioning, but I was just trying to narrow down the time of conception, related to the event's in KL, because following the timeline in different POV's can sometimes be maddening to me! Which might be exactly as GRRM intended!

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IMO Jon is older than we think, and likely born 9 months after the tourney at Harrenhal. If Dany is 9 months older than Jon, then perhaps she was conceived a lot earlier than we think. If Aerys raped Rhaella multiple times leading up until she was sent to Dragonstone, there's no telling how far along Rhaella was when she left, or how long after she arrived to Dragonstone before she gave birth. It's even possible that Aerys rape before she left and the voyage could have been stressful enough to cause her to go into labor. And I can't imagine that King Robert would have left her in peace on Dragonstone for very long, in fact I can't imagine he wouldn't try to capture her within a month of taking the throne!

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8 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

IMO Jon is older than we think, and likely born 9 months after the tourney at Harrenhal. If Dany is 9 months older than Jon, then perhaps she was conceived a lot earlier than we think. If Aerys raped Rhaella multiple times leading up until she was sent to Dragonstone, there's no telling how far along Rhaella was when she left, or how long after she arrived to Dragonstone before she gave birth. It's even possible that Aerys rape before she left and the voyage could have been stressful enough to cause her to go into labor. And I can't imagine that King Robert would have left her in peace on Dragonstone for very long, in fact I can't imagine he wouldn't try to capture her within a month of taking the throne!

I have thought about Aerys raping Rhaella after he burned Rickard. But this went nowhere as it happened too early in the war but too late for Aegon ...

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I guess it won't fit but I don't have time to look up the events and timelines:

- Rhaegar gets Lyanna pregnant right after Harrenhal, their child stays in KL as "Aegon"

- Rhaegar and Lyanna move South to hide real Aegon in the water gardens.

- Rhaegar returns alone and gets killed in battle

- KL gets sacked and Gregor smashes "Aegon"

- Lyanna miscarries a second child and dies at the ToJ

- Ned returns with Jon, who is his son with?

 

 

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4 hours ago, alienarea said:

I guess it won't fit but I don't have time to look up the events and timelines:

- Rhaegar gets Lyanna pregnant right after Harrenhal, their child stays in KL as "Aegon"

- Rhaegar and Lyanna move South to hide real Aegon in the water gardens.

- Rhaegar returns alone and gets killed in battle

- KL gets sacked and Gregor smashes "Aegon"

- Lyanna miscarries a second child and dies at the ToJ

- Ned returns with Jon, who is his son with?

 

 

Well, I think the story is quite different than your theory.

Prior to the tourney at Harrenhal, I posit that Lyanna somehow got mixed up with a group known as the Kingswood Brotherhood. They are portrayed as bandits, but I think they were actually an honorable group, and a parallel to Beric Dondarrion's group that Ned sent out to deal with Ser Gregor Clegane's raiders.

The KWB were trying to gain intelligence on an earlier group of raiders sent out by King Aerys that was also kidnapping highborn maidens. King Aerys wanted these young girls to provide "dragon seeds" to be used in his attempts to hatch dragon eggs.

When Ser Gerold Hightower accompanied Princess Elia through the Kingswood, they were attacked by the Kingswood Brotherhood. Not to rob them of their coin, but because they had dragon eggs. 

(Edited - rearranged order) King Aerys sends out a detachment to deal with the Kingswood Brotherhood giving Ser Arthur Dayne command since Hightower was injured. They find and engage the KWB, but Merrett Frey gets captured. Lord Crakehall ends up ransoming him back, but not before Lyanna/Wenda brands Merrett's backside. It is not known what happened to "Wenda", but the "bandits" are effectively disbanded. Merrett ends up with a cracked skull somehow, and Jaime ends up knighted by Arthur on the field.

I think Jon Snow is Ashara and Ned's son, conceived at Harrenhal. Jaime is invested into the Kingsguard as a reward for his valor during the disbandment of the KWB.

At one of the feasts held during the ten days of the tourney, Rickard finished his negotiations with Jon Arryn to marry Lyanna to Robert. The sniffling during Rhaegar's performance probably had more to do with her father's decision than to the sadness of the song. The conversation between Ned and Lyanna was then prompted by her tears.

Rhaegar never kidnapped Lyanna, even though he may have suspected her participation, not just as the Knight of the Laughing Tree, but as her secret identity as Wenda the White Fawn. After Lyanna was crowned the Queen of Love and Beauty, she got spooked and ran. She went back to hide in the Riverlands - an area that she knew well from when she was Wenda.

Gregor Clegane was one of the groups looking for the Knight of the Laughing Tree after the tourney. He and his men end up at an inn and raped the innkeeper's daughter, Layna. I posit that the "daughter" ended up being Lyanna, and Gregor brought her back to Tywin at Kings Landing, and they placed her in the Black Cells.

Also after the tourney, Rhaegar had Varys swap out Aegon for the Pisswater Prince and took Aegon (Elia's child) to Dorne for safekeeping.

Meanwhile, Ashara learns she's pregnant, but nothing can be done about a marriage to Ned, because the Starks and Daynes were on opposite sides of the Rebellion. She's sent to court in disgrace to become Elia's handmaiden.

When Brandon hears Lyanna was captured, he rides to Kings Landing. Maybe Aerys realized who he had then? If Aerys suspected that Lyanna was working with the Kingswood Brotherhood, then that would further explain his violent reaction to Brandon.

When Elia was taken into custody, and Rhaella left, Ashara found a way to escape the Red Keep much like Sansa did, and was the true identity of the Fisherman's Daughter that Ned encountered when he left to call his banners. She ends up giving birth at White Harbor, and Ned convinces her to let him raise Jon while she goes on to Braavos and into exile as Septa Lemore. This is how Jon and his wet-nurse Wylla ended up at Winterfell before Catelyn and Robb. Even though Jon is described as slender, and maybe small for his age, there was no real way to hide his age other than for Maester Luwin to try and calm Catelyn's fears by telling her that bastards grow up faster.

Rhaella gives birth to Dany very soon after arriving to Dragonstone. The stay couldn't have been very long, because like I've posited earlier, I just can't see Robert allowing her to remain on that island while he's on the throne. After her death, Willem Darry took Viserys and Dany to Braavos, and must have taken refuge with Illyrio.

After the sack of Kings Landing, Ned found Lyanna dying down in the Black Cells from a festering wound she suffered during the encounter with Gregor Clegane and his men. She never gave birth to any child. After she died, Ned had her body packed in salt in a barrel and shipped home while he went to Storms End to lift the siege. Later, he and Howland return Dawn to Starfall. 

 

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1 hour ago, Tucu said:

@Feather Crystal

The disbanding of the Brotherhood happened before the tourney. Jaime was still a squire and was knighted during the campaign and was returning home when he made a stop in King's Landing and Cersei had the idea of him becoming a Kingsguard.

Oh yeah, that's right. I hate it when I forget a detail! It doesn't change my belief that Lyanna was involved with the KWB, and ran after the tourney. Perhaps she was caught by Ser Gregor Clegane's men then? They were one of the groups out searching for the Knight of the Laughing Tree.

I went back and revised my post. Thanks for pointing out my mistake! 

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4 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Oh yeah, that's right. I hate it when I forget a detail! It doesn't change my belief that Lyanna was involved with the KWB, and ran after the tourney. Perhaps she was caught by Ser Gregor Clegane's men then? They were one of the groups out searching for the Knight of the Laughing Tree.

I went back and revised my post. Thanks for pointing out my mistake! 

The issue that I have with you r theory is that it doesn't match the manner that Ned says she died in. Specifically a bed of blood. Sure there a plenty of ways to bleed out, but all of them are rather quick. certainly not lasting the entire rebellion (9 Months ish at the shortest estimation). 

 

Ned also speaks of a tower long fallen and we haven't heard of any towers that fell in Kings Landing. No, I think that Lyanna died in the South. She may not have died in childbirth, but the text gives us a fairly good guess as to where she passed away. 

 

That said, I think you are onto something with her being Wenda. I have speculated that she wasn't kidnapped at all, but ran away from everything after the tourney. 

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1 hour ago, Janneyc1 said:

The issue that I have with you r theory is that it doesn't match the manner that Ned says she died in. Specifically a bed of blood. Sure there a plenty of ways to bleed out, but all of them are rather quick. certainly not lasting the entire rebellion (9 Months ish at the shortest estimation). 

 

Ned also speaks of a tower long fallen and we haven't heard of any towers that fell in Kings Landing. No, I think that Lyanna died in the South. She may not have died in childbirth, but the text gives us a fairly good guess as to where she passed away. 

 

That said, I think you are onto something with her being Wenda. I have speculated that she wasn't kidnapped at all, but ran away from everything after the tourney. 

http://houseofblackandwhite.freeforums.net/thread/449/maegors-holdfast-real-tower-joy

If my link works it will take you to my essay that provides evidence that Maegor’s Holdfast is the tower of joy.

Robert died in a bed of blood too. No birth required. Lyanna could have died of a wound incurred during her captivity. Neither Ned’s dream or waking memories of her death include finding a baby.

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