Aline de Gavrillac Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Eddard Waters said: Then his bannermen turn on him because they don't want to have there lands ceased and be butchered by the combined might of the rest of Westeros I doubt this. There are many who would want to take this opportunity to better their luck. The Greyjoys might ally with a former enemy with the promise that should the Lannisters win, and they most likely will, the Iron Isles can have its independence. Lannister gold can hire thousands of sellswords. Tywin can reach out to the Golden Company and promise them Baratheon lands. I think you will find many families will side with the lions. Most houses are still recovering from the death toll of the rebellions. House Lannister was basically unscathed. Tywin could make a back door deal with the second-most powerful houses in each kingdom. Frey, Bolton, Hightower, Yronwood may answer his call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddard Waters Posted November 19, 2018 Author Share Posted November 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Aline de Gavrillac said: I doubt this. There are many who would want to take this opportunity to better their luck. The Greyjoys might ally with a former enemy with the promise that should the Lannisters win, and they most likely will, the Iron Isles can have its independence. Lannister gold can hire thousands of sellswords. Tywin can reach out to the Golden Company and promise them Baratheon lands. I think you will find many families will side with the lions. Most houses are still recovering from the death toll of the rebellions. House Lannister was basically unscathed. Tywin could make a back door deal with the second-most powerful houses in each kingdom. Frey, Bolton, Hightower, Yronwood may answer his call. The Yronwoods would have no reason to rebel, Mace Tyrell is married to a Hightower, Walder Frey is definitely going to see this as an opportunity to install Cleos Frey as the new Warden of the West, Unlike Robb, Eddard doesn't trust Roose, the Golden Company is currently in the service of the B̶l̶a̶c̶k̶f̶y̶r̶e̶s̶ Taragaryns, and Balon might see this as the perfect time to reave the rich Westerlands. With the Westerlands most likely under blockade by the Redwyne Fleet, getting those sellswords is going to be difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bernie Mac Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 17 minutes ago, Eddard Waters said: The Yronwoods would have no reason to rebel, Dorne is not going to do anything. They've made their deal with the Targs, it is in their best interest to sit back and let the other factions weaken each other. 17 minutes ago, Eddard Waters said: Mace Tyrell is married to a Hightower, And? If Robert murders his wife, children and goes to war against his father-in-law is Mace not going to have second thoughts? 17 minutes ago, Eddard Waters said: Walder Frey is definitely going to see this as an opportunity to install Cleos Frey as the new Warden of the West, lol when do lords from other regions get to dictate who will be warden? What are you basing this on? 17 minutes ago, Eddard Waters said: Unlike Robb, Eddard doesn't trust Roose, Eddard's also pretty honourable and is disgusted with child killers. He's not going to war for another mad king. 17 minutes ago, Eddard Waters said: the Golden Company is currently in the service of the B̶l̶a̶c̶k̶f̶y̶r̶e̶s̶ Taragaryns, Not currently, they only agree to invade after they know Tywin's dead. 17 minutes ago, Eddard Waters said: and Balon might see this as the perfect time to reave the rich Westerlands. He didn't want to do it when Tywin and his army where in the Riverlands, with Tywin at home it seems less likely 17 minutes ago, Eddard Waters said: With the Westerlands most likely under blockade by the Redwyne Fleet, getting those sellswords is going to be difficult. Why would Tywin have them travel for months longer by going all the way around Westeros? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddard Waters Posted November 19, 2018 Author Share Posted November 19, 2018 36 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said: And? If Robert murders his wife, children and goes to war against his father-in-law is Mace not going to have second thoughts? Their deaths would allow Margaery to become Queen. Even if Mace has second thoughts about a Marg-Robert match, he stayed loyal to Aerys up until the Sack of Kings Landing, why wouldn't he stay loyal to Robert? 36 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said: lol when do lords from other regions get to dictate who will be warden? What are you basing this on? If Tywin, Kevin, and Tygett's lines are extinguished, Cleos Frey (Genna Lannister's son) is heir to the Westerlands, staying loyal to Robert may allow Cleos to inherit the West, besides Walder has little reason to turn against Robert, at worst he'll stay neutral. 36 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said: Eddard's also pretty honourable and is disgusted with child killers. He's not going to war for another mad king. How would Robert be another Mad King in Ned's eyes? Jon Arryn (Eddard's foster father) is supporting the twincest accusations. Joffrey, Tommen, and Myrcella are by their mere existence, threats to rightful succession. Eddard would certainly be disgusted, but he won't rise in Rebellion against Robert. (BTW, I do not support murdering children for any reason what so ever, I was just looking at the situation from a utilitarian point of view). 47 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said: He didn't want to do it when Tywin and his army where in the Riverlands, with Tywin at home it seems less likely Most of the realm is united against Tywin and only Tywin, this is the perfect opportunity to reave the west. If Eddard stays neutral, any invasion of the North would be doomed for failure, Balon should be aware of this. 58 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said: Why would Tywin have them travel for months longer by going all the way around Westeros? How would Tywin get the sellswords into the Westerlands then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bernie Mac Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 10 hours ago, Eddard Waters said: Their deaths would allow Margaery to become Queen. Robert's never even met the 14 year old daughter of Mace, she's not on his radar. He's also unlikely to rush into a marriage after killing his wife and children, especially not to someone who is pretty much Cersei version 2 (given her large, rich family and her close relationship to Loras). Quote Even if Mace has second thoughts about a Marg-Robert match, Of course he would. Robert's crown would be hugely unstable, his reputation ruined either he's humiliated by being cuckolded for 15 years or he's cursed for murdering his own children (or even a bit of both). The Tyrell's killed Joffrey for fear he might do the same to Marg as he did to Sansa, what Robert did was much worse and there is zero chance Robert would allow Loras to join the Kingsguard after Jaime. Marg would be fucked if a child looked more like her than him. She and her family would be crazy to risk it. Quote he stayed loyal to Aerys up until the Sack of Kings Landing, why wouldn't he stay loyal to Robert? The Targs granted the Tyrell's the Reach, and the Targs had never lost control in almost 3 centuries. It is an entirely different scenario, the Reach can afford to be patient, they would not need to do much. Quote If Tywin, Kevin, and Tygett's lines are extinguished, But they are not. And Cleos is in the West, he's part of those same armies. Quote Cleos Frey (Genna Lannister's son) is heir to the Westerlands, staying loyal to Robert may allow Cleos to inherit the West, besides Walder has little reason to turn against Robert, at worst he'll stay neutral. Of course he will stay neutral, the majority of the realm would stay neutral. Robert going to war over being humiliated is not an honourable cause for war. Quote How would Robert be another Mad King in Ned's eyes? By murdering innocents, one of the reasons Ned did not want to tell Robert was he was fearful of Robert doing something like your OP suggests "Ned could not let that happen again. The realm could not withstand a second mad king, another dance of blood and vengeance. He must find some way to save the children." Ned's an honourable man, he is not going to war to fight wars for another Mad King. Quote Jon Arryn (Eddard's foster father) is supporting the twincest accusations. Except he's not, he was still investigating. Even on his deathbed he did not reveal his suspicions but gave a vague hint. Quote Joffrey, Tommen, and Myrcella are by their mere existence, threats to rightful succession. Eddard would certainly be disgusted, but he won't rise in Rebellion against Robert. Never claimed he would, he would sit it out. Quote Most of the realm is united against Tywin and only Tywin, this is the perfect opportunity to reave the west. That's not actually true. If Jon Arryn lives then Jaime is never made Warden of the Vale and Tyrion never captured by Cat in the Riverlands. In your own scenario only Dorne and Kings Landing has an issue with the Lannisters, not most of the realm. And the Martell's also hate Robert, if he murders another three royal children they are likely to assume he ordered Elia's children's deaths as well. Quote If Eddard stays neutral, any invasion of the North would be doomed for failure, Balon should be aware of this. How does this relate to anything I've said? Quote How would Tywin get the sellswords into the Westerlands then? If, in your scenario, he's going to war he would have them attack. It is a 10k army, it would be entirely pointless having them go to the Westerlands only for them to move out once they arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Mormont Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Jon Arryn was not stupid. He will tell Robert in private, after he places Jamie, Cersie and the kids in custody. Preferably he would look to catch Jamie and Cersie no there is no denying it, but I think he can talk Robert into a better "plan" than mounting all their heads on spikes. A story is concocted and Jamie is executed for another high crime. Cersie is kept prisoner in the Red Keep until she dies of an illness, while the kids are fostered out. Robert takes a new wife and disowns the kids as soon as he has new ones. Robert keeps Tywin in check by holding the kids hostage since they are still his grandchildren. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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