I think I need volunteers to discuss this Top Secret Theory and determine if I should release it publicly

[SirArthur]

So GRRM has to be protected from the fans, when we find out the illuminati conspiracy. And because this is the case, the OP creates a secret, closed committee to protect the masses.

Hell yeah. 

So will future posts about the "true" interpretation of GRRM's books be deleted by the committee ? Because it is a dangerous idea ....

[rustythesmith]

4 hours ago, SirArthur said:

So GRRM has to be protected from the fans, when we find out the illuminati conspiracy. And because this is the case, the OP creates a secret, closed committee to protect the masses.

Hell yeah. 

So will future posts about the "true" interpretation of GRRM's books be deleted by the committee ? Because it is a dangerous idea ....

I probably wouldn't liken an impressive mystery in a storybook to the illuminati, but I see how the exaggeration demonstrates your distaste for secrecy.

It is a minority of readers who enjoy engaging with the puzzles to the degree that Martin enjoys writing them, but those of us who enjoy doing the grueling research, rereads and mental gymnastics value the opportunity to play the puzzles ourselves. When an answer to the magnitude of R+L=J is told to you, that opportunity is lost forever. It's a trade off though, because discussing the answer as a community is quite enjoyable too, and would not be possible if it hadn't been shared. Still, most of us will never know if we would have discovered RLJ using our own wits. I'm not saying the trade was or wasn't worth it, but that it isn't the sort of thing that can be undone.

Given the truth will out phenomenon, a single idea can conceivably unravel an entire tapestry. One idea fits into place, unlocks another and that another, until we're left holding a string rather than a tapestry that could be hung back on the wall for future readers to enjoy. I think we all sense the intricacy of the knitting beneath the surface because Martin gives us glimpses of it now and then. So I don't think it's impossible that somebody can stumble upon a loose strand and use it to unravel nearly the whole damn thing, permanently changing the landscape of the fandom in ways that might be enjoyable in the short term but not in the long term.

No, to answer your question. I don't think any idea should be censored once it has been shared publicly. The first reason is that it isn't possible. Ideas can't be tied down, and attempts to squelch the truth have a way of drawing more attention to it. The second is that the sharing of ideas and interpretations is somewhat of an inalienable right of each fan. If one person's inalienable right doesn't matter, then none of them do. It's a slippery slope argument, but I think it's right. Here is a quote in the same vein.

Quote

"If Joffrey should die . . . what is the life of one bastard boy against a kingdom?"

"Everything," said Davos, softly.

 

I'm not suggesting that the collective is justified to censor the individual. Only trying to explain why the individual might feel compelled to censor himself.

[The Map Guy]

Its a gift to be able to find hidden puzzles and then decipher them.

That is how World War II was won on both European & Pacific campaigns. The Brits decoded the German messages, the American decoded the Japanese messages.

[SirArthur]

13 minutes ago, rustythesmith said:

It is a minority of readers who enjoy engaging with the puzzles to the degree that Martin enjoys writing them, but those of us who enjoy doing the grueling research, rereads and mental gymnastics value the opportunity to play the puzzles ourselves. When an answer to the magnitude of R+L=J is told to you, that opportunity is lost forever. It's a trade off though, because discussing the answer as a community is quite enjoyable too, and would not be possible if it hadn't been shared. Still, most of us will never know if we would have discovered RLJ using our own wits. I'm not saying the trade was or wasn't worth it, but that it isn't the sort of thing that can be undone.

I don't believe in Rhaegar as Jon's daddy. That prob. breaks your logic at that point. But as I don't want this to slide into another r+l discussion, let me give you another argument.

 

Do you know what I would do, if I wouldn't want mysteries spoiled and explore the entire book on myself, even after multiple reads ? Not join a forum. Because that is more or less the point of a forum. To talk about the books and see them from different perspectives. 

[SirArthur]

4 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

Its a gift to be able to find hidden puzzles and then decipher them.

That is how World War II was won on both European & Pacific campaigns. The Brits decoded the German messages, the American decoded the Japanese messages.

Now GRRM, a writer of fiction, is in a war. This gets better every post. 

[rustythesmith]

55 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

I don't believe in Rhaegar as Jon's daddy. That prob. breaks your logic at that point. But as I don't want this to slide into another r+l discussion, let me give you another argument.

The reasoning I used remains intact. All you've done is break the hypothetical. Replace R+L=J with any theory you prefer, and it demonstrates my point just as well.

Quote

Do you know what I would do, if I wouldn't want mysteries spoiled and explore the entire book on myself, even after multiple reads ? Not join a forum. Because that is more or less the point of a forum. To talk about the books and see them from different perspectives.

How many TV show watchers do you think heard R+L=J without ever seeking it out? I don't see how your point relates to this situation. If a reader decides that he wants to censor himself, I don't suppose you are suggesting that we hold a gun to his head and force him to speak.

[SirArthur]

2 minutes ago, rustythesmith said:

 How many TV show watchers do you think heard R+L=J without ever seeking it out? I don't see how your point relates to this situation. If a reader decides that he wants to censor himself, are you going to hold a gun to his head and force him to speak?

Now I'm holding a gun, because I'm against secrecy when discussing a work of fiction. Don't read an interpretation of Hamlet, if you haven't read Hamlet. That's all I can say any more. Don't discuss ASOIAF, if you won't get spoiled. 

my god

[rustythesmith]

7 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

Now I'm holding a gun, because I'm against secrecy when discussing a work of fiction. Don't read an interpretation of Hamlet, if you haven't read Hamlet. That's all I can say any more. Don't discuss ASOIAF, if you won't get spoiled. 

my god

When somebody uses hyperbole or parallelism to demonstrate a point, you misrepresent the hyperbole or parallel as if it weren't hyperbole or parallelism. You do this because it makes it easier for you to avoid the intellectual responsibility to engage with the points. This tactic may work on some people, but it signifies to me that you have run out of points and lack the character to admit it.

[The Coconut God]

If you have a new and interesting theory, you should just post it and stake your claim. I highly doubt people will take it as seriously as you think.

I was pretty sure my Exodus theory was going to "break the Internet", or at least leave a bigger mark on the fandom than D+D=T and Lemongate, but I keep championing it and it turns out nobody cares. It's one thing to be 100% convinced your theory makes sense, another to think that George actually intended it to read like that, and yet another to convince the fan base without proof from the man himself.

Looking forward to the reactions.

[The Piper Report]

So I know I'm a new here but are people really falling for this?  The OP appears to be grandstanding trying to garner attention and make himself appear as a grand-old ASOIAF theorist.  A theory that will break the internet and ruin GRRM?  Have you heard of Pizzagate?  The internet is full of crazy theories, theories more insane than Pizzagate and the internet has yet to be broken; lives have yet to be ruined.  There are many crazy ASOIAF theories as well.

For starters, as the OP said, it is a theory, not a fact.  Many people theorize about other people, it's called rumors and gossip.  The theory will be speculation based on context in the books.  It may be creative, it may have some interesting tidbits, but at the end of the day it is a theory.  This thread, on the other hand, is similar to elementary school tactics kids used to tease each other and build up their own self-importance.

Kid 1: "I know a huge secret about X"

kid 2: "Really?  What is it?"

Kid 1: "Sorry, not telling.  It's my secret.  Hey everyone, I have a secret about X but I'm not telling you.  Be sure to beg me for the secret and give me your full attention for days and weeks on end, and then maybe I will tell you.  Or maybe I won't.  But trust me, it's huge!."

I don't know, kind of immature, especially doing it on a public forum by creating your thread with the sole purpose of getting people to beg you to release the theory or to join you and then maybe (or maybe not) relay the grandest ASOIAF theory of all time.  It would have been more appropriate to PM trusted members on the board yourself and discuss it with them, then if you decided to post it then make your own thread and post the theory as a spoiler.  You could have even told everyone the steps you went through to post it.  This way you aren't leading people on and raising people's curiosity over a theory you may not even release.  You should have kept everyone ignorant until you and those you contacted agreed to release it. 

Very immature behavior, OP

[Ser Jozz of House Hozz]

@The Map Guy  Do I qualify for a place on the #Theoryguard

In all seriousness though just post your theory. If it breaks the internet then great. If it doesn't then at least it will cause discussion. Do not trust the #Theoryguard and their oath. Vows are words, and words are wind.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

5 hours ago, The Piper Report said:

So I know I'm a new here but are people really falling for this?    <snip>

Stop spoiling our fun.  The op has created a lot of fun and ammusment, and dreams of pink stretch the return.

[rustythesmith]

The way I see it, there's a clear set of possibilities here.

1. His theory is right and he's right about the impact it will have.

2. His theory is right and he's wrong about the impact it will have. You could summarize the whole ending of the series and tie up all the loose ends neatly with a bow on top in a way that everyone can understand, but still the fandom wouldn't believe it. Many would dismiss it for a variety of reasons and move on. When you look at theories from past eras that turned out to be spooky accurate, they weren't the most highly regarded theories. They're hidden in some obscure corner where it either went completely ignored or received high praise by a very small group of people.

3. His theory is wrong.

 

Number 3 doesn't threaten anything but your ego.

People are afraid of feeling stupid if they get duped by somebody on an ego trip. Who cares if you feel stupid for a minute? What do you think an ego maniac is getting from it anyway other than some fleeting enjoyment? I think people are overlooking the possibility that his concern is genuine. There is a real possibility and in fact an inevitability that somebody at some point in this series will figure out a number 1 scenario. It has happened in the past and becomes increasingly likely going forward. And in that case, it's possible that we'd be happier not having something immensely cool spoiled for us in a lame list of bullet points rather than through the story itself.

People read that and think "Oh you would have us censor everything" which is completely missing the point. No, of course I would not have us censor anything. I would however appreciate not being spoiled on some particularly cool thing if possible, and I would respect the individual who knew about it and was able to keep their silence against the temptation of things that are ultimately worthless like karma or "you were right" a decade later, in order to allow the millions of other people to enjoy it in their own way and time. We saw what the media did with R+L=J and it is entirely unavoidable even if you wanted to avoid it. It appears all over headlines and you hear it in casual conversation. The notion that you can just ignore everything by staying away from forums is either dishonest or naive.

That said, I'm skeptical that a historical parallel can unravel something like AA. People tend to rely on historical parallels too much when predicting the story. Like the Night Lamp theory for example is a great theory and maybe something like it will happen, but Martin doesn't copy and paste real world history into ASOIAF. He uses it to inspire some elements, sometimes heavily and sometimes loosely. Because of that, a historical parallel can indicate what won't happen just as easily as it can indicate what will happen. They're neat and intriguing catches but as far as I can tell they don't have a lot of predictive utility.

[the Other Wolf]

On 11/22/2018 at 12:47 AM, rustythesmith said:

Use the text to define the text.

What are you smoking?  This is crazy talk!  

Too bad many others do not understand this principle and get mad when you point it out, e.g. when someone tries to convince you of something to come in the books using the fan fiction they created or when using a similar historical story as absolute fact of what is to come without using the text to define the text to bring the theory home.

[SirArthur]

1 hour ago, rustythesmith said:

We saw what the media did with R+L=J and it is entirely unavoidable even if you wanted to avoid it. It appears all over headlines and you hear it in casual conversation. The notion that you can just ignore everything by staying away from forums is either dishonest or naive.

Most people who use "it is known" do not even know the context of that quote and most people who bring up R+L have prob. never heard about Ser Oswell Whent or how he is related to the characters in our story. Or how unfinished the Whent family tree is. 

It is one thing to know a line, a completely different thing to know the story. And a third thing to have a story confirmed in a book that has not even been released. 

R+L has consequences for Rhaegar, consequences the media or the series never even brings up. And this is before we even discuss the possibility that GRRM is trolling us and R stands for Robert.

[JNR]

On 11/21/2018 at 11:47 PM, rustythesmith said:

It is very rare that people express certainty about any remotely complex or long standing mystery.

How is it possible anyone could write a thing like that about a site like this?

Ah.  I see you've written a whopping forty posts.  That's how.

3 hours ago, SirArthur said:

R+L has consequences for Rhaegar, consequences the media or the series never even brings up. And this is before we even discuss the possibility that GRRM is trolling us and R stands for Robert.

Well, GRRM has studiously avoided discussing R+L=J for two decades.   And in the canon, the theory that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna never comes up at all.

So there's no trolling happening there.  If the theory proves incorrect, what it means is  that the fans deluded themselves, like Flat Earthers, into thinking they knew the truth when they did not.

However, GRRM has said this -- many times, over and over, for years:

Quote

How many children did Scarlett O'Hara have? Three, in the novel. One, in the movie. None, in real life: she was a fictional character, she never existed. The show is the show, the books are the books; two different tellings of the same story.

There have been differences between the novels and the television show since the first episode of season one. And for just as long, I have been talking about the butterfly effect. Small changes lead to larger changes lead to huge changes...

So if we try to use the show to "confirm" any theory about the future books, we are very likely to make fools of ourselves. 

Media analysts and forum users have both often fallen into this logical pitfall.  It's been kinda funny watching it happen; the most outstanding instance I recall was a particular Vox article.

We also know, factually, that the show productions aren't even consistent with each other.  We know this because HBO has told us, about the forthcoming show, that on it we will learn "the true origin of the white walkers."

This means, of course, that Benioff and Weiss were only guessing in their version of the origin of the white walkers on their show, and they got it wrong.  Their version was not true.

Goodness gracious.  I wonder what else they were only guessing about, and got wrong...

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

12 hours ago, The Piper Report said:

So I know I'm a new here but are people really falling for this? 

7 years between books, man.

George, you see what's the wait doing to us? Do you see?

[rustythesmith]

1 hour ago, JNR said:

How is it possible anyone could write a thing like that about a site like this?

Ah.  I see you've written a whopping forty posts.  That's how.

You seem to be under the impression that reading and writing are the same thing. I understand that the misrepresentation conveniently enables the member measuring contest you are trying to insinuate with your comment about post count, but reading and writing aren't in fact the same thing. I began reading this site two years before I signed up and a year before I began posting. I'm familiar with this site, the asoiaf fandom as a whole, and the frequency and degree of truth claims. They are common in conversation, because conversation would become cumbersome if each of us felt the need to qualify every utterance with "I think" or some variation. But when you engage with people you find that, more often than not, they are not as immovable as they first seemed. There is an element of showmanship too, I think. It is sometimes more entertaining to watch a person champion an idea confidently than to cautiously crawl toward each point. In that case, the idea's resilience is tested as a group.

In recent years I've noticed a rise in frustration from the audience with attempts at group activities. An increasing number of fans don't seem to want to hear about asoiaf unless answers to their burning questions are delivered to them on a silver platter. But thankfully that cultural shift is less pronounced on westeros.org.
 

Quote

 

Well, GRRM has studiously avoided discussing R+L=J for two decades.   And in the canon, the theory that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna never comes up at all.

So there's no trolling happening there.  If the theory proves incorrect, what it means is  that the fans deluded themselves, like Flat Earthers, into thinking they knew the truth when they did not.

However, GRRM has said this -- many times, over and over, for years:

So if we try to use the show to "confirm" any theory about the future books, we are very likely to make fools of ourselves. 

Media analysts and forum users have both often fallen into this logical pitfall.  It's been kinda funny watching it happen; the most outstanding instance I recall was a particular Vox article.

We also know, factually, that the show productions aren't even consistent with each other.  We know this because HBO has told us, about the forthcoming show, that on it we will learn "the true origin of the white walkers."

This means, of course, that Benioff and Weiss were only guessing in their version of the origin of the white walkers on their show, and they got it wrong.  Their version was not true.

Goodness gracious.  I wonder what else they were only guessing about, and got wrong...

 

SirArthur, I would only echo JNR because I agree with much of what he said. I differ on the white walkers point. I don't think the tagline of the spinoff excludes the possibility that the origin of the white walkers is in alignment with the origin of the Others in the books. I can prove that the origins will be in alignment in show and book using the text but it is a long proof.

The word "true" may simply mean "a closer look at" or "another perspective of." It does seem to suggest that GoT will leave us in the dark about the white walkers though. Or at least that it may leave us wanting to know more.

[Gertrude]

10 hours ago, Pebble said:

Stop spoiling our fun.  The op has created a lot of fun and ammusment, and dreams of pink stretch the return.

You haaaaad to bring this up :p

I won't lie, the pink stretch came to my mind as I was reading this thread too.

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

On 11/21/2018 at 5:10 PM, Makk said:

Who's going to be the #theoryslayer? 

Six of the seven #Theoryguard members will probably slay the theory before it can be made public.