[SPOILERS] The Regency of Aegon III

[Ran]

I suspect he'll approve in his way, given his own history.

The false Daerons must be post-regency.

[desire]

Poor guy but the book it's self what a snooze lol as thank god for the art that would turn septons blind loras was right after all. 

[Destiny Arrives]

Man i felt for him but respected him in the end. Guy was interested in his small counsel until Peake upset him. Gets his brother back and almost loses him to the same KG he didn't want as well.

Poor Lod Rowan almost convinced him he was betrayed until Visearys steeped in.

[zionius]

Just noticed, it says Larys's bones would return to Harrenhal "years later", which hints Alys Rivers would held Harrenhal for years, maybe till 151 AC.

[Lord Varys]

13 minutes ago, zionius said:

Just noticed, it says Larys's bones would return to Harrenhal "years later", which hints Alys Rivers would held Harrenhal for years, maybe till 151 AC.

That's my idea, too. And it is not just that hint, but also the reference to Dark Sister and when it was recovered.

My guess is that Alys' 'Jon Snow' is going to wield it in his rebellion against the pretender and false king, Aegon III, riding either his own dragon (if he has one, Vhagar could certainly have produced an egg while she was with Aemond and Alys in the wilderness) or on Silverwing or the Cannibal.

I'm also reasonably confident that Morning/Rhaena might be killed in that fighting, and possibly Baela as well. Perhaps Viserys joins the fighting on his own dragon. In any case, I think that conflict will finally kill all the healthy Targaryen dragons, resulting in them being stuck with crippled hatchlings who finally expire in 153 AC.

[Maia]

I was a bit disappointed that we didn't get more on Baela and Rhaena and that their relationship with their brother Aegon wasn't as close as I hoped. Though, admittedly they had a great scene and affected things in significant ways by their match-making.  GRRM better not shuffle them off into insignificance and/or kill them in chidlbirth at a young age! Though, the fact that Elaena's kids by Alyn Oakenfist remained bastards and that they never married suggests to me that Baela outlived him - at least, it should be Baela and not some second wife brought in to replace her and prevent Alyn - Elaena marriage! I was also very much surprised that Alyn - Baela match wasn't arranged by Corlys, but was something that they cooked up themselves and that, in fact, Alyn was rescuing his niece/cousin from the regents. I also somehow expected at least Baela to be a little bitter that Alyn inherited Velaryon lordship to which she and her sister  had  significant claims, but apparently not, and presumably she will be the de-facto lord of Driftmark anyway, with Oakenfist away on his voyages so much and troublesome Velaryon cousins largely out of the picture. Also, did her dragonfire burns heal without trace? This would be rather odd, given Aegon II's and Alyn's scars.

Baela also has been through more than was apparent in previously published fragments  - having her head literally on the block twice, being imprisoned and under a constant threat of death/mutilation during her captivity. Sadly, it looks like whatever education Rhaena enjoyed as Maid of the Vale's ward won't find much application, as it doesn't look like she'll be a member of Dragonsbane's government or a wife of paramount of the Reach. Though there is still a faint hope that she might become a de-facto council member with Garmund as her "beard", like was done with that Fossoway woman and later will be with Elaena Targaryen.

18 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm also reasonably confident that Morning/Rhaena might be killed in that fighting, and possibly Baela as well.

Doesn't Rhaena need time to marry Garmund and have her 6 daughters by him? Morning "didn't live long", allegedly. As to Baela - see above. Honestly, at least _some_ women should live long, too.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Maia said:

I was a bit disappointed that we didn't get more on Baela and Rhaena and that their relationship with their brother Aegon wasn't as close as I hoped.

Since Aegon III was only close to Viserys I wasn't surprised about that. And considering that the girls weren't with him and Rhaenyra for most of the war this is also not very surprising.

1 hour ago, Maia said:

Though, admittedly they had a great scene and affected things in significant ways by their match-making.  GRRM better not shuffle them off into insignificance and/or kill them in chidlbirth at a young age! Though, the fact that Elaena's kids by Alyn Oakenfist remained bastards and that they never married suggests to me that Baela outlived him - at least, it should be Baela and not some second wife brought in to replace her and prevent Alyn - Elaena marriage!

Oh, I could see Alyn have multiple wives easily enough. But it is actually implied that he is already a widower when he dies considering Elaena hoped to marry him after his return from his last voyage - from which he didn't come back. So we can safely say that Baela was (long?) dead in the 170s.

1 hour ago, Maia said:

I was also very much surprised that Alyn - Baela match wasn't arranged by Corlys, but was something that they cooked up themselves and that, in fact, Alyn was rescuing his niece/cousin from the regents. I also somehow expected at least Baela to be a little bitter that Alyn inherited Velaryon lordship to which she and her sister  had  significant claims, but apparently not, and presumably she will be the de-facto lord of Driftmark anyway, with Oakenfist away on his voyages so much and troublesome Velaryon cousins largely out of the picture. Also, did her dragonfire burns heal without trace? This would be rather odd, given Aegon II's and Alyn's scars.

Yeah, the fact that Corlys didn't arrange that match makes little sense. George could have given us at least a betrothal if he wanted to keep Baela's escape story - Corlys died before the wedding, and certain regents then tried to arrange a new marriage for Baela, say.

There was never a mentioning of any proper scars and the like, just that she was burned and battered after the dragon fight. That could have hinted at severe injuries or just mild ones - it was never clear.

1 hour ago, Maia said:

Baela also has been through more than was apparent in previously published fragments  - having her head literally on the block twice, being imprisoned and under a constant threat of death/mutilation during her captivity. Sadly, it looks like whatever education Rhaena enjoyed as Maid of the Vale's ward won't find much application, as it doesn't look like she'll be a member of Dragonsbane's government or a wife of paramount of the Reach. Though there is still a faint hope that she might become a de-facto council member with Garmund as her "beard", like was done with that Fossoway woman and later will be with Elaena Targaryen.

Right now Rhaena is the factual mistress/lady of Dragonstone. That's not insignificant at all.

1 hour ago, Maia said:

Doesn't Rhaena need time to marry Garmund and have her 6 daughters by him? Morning "didn't live long", allegedly. As to Baela - see above. Honestly, at least _some_ women should live long, too.

If Rhaena/Morning were to die in 150-51 AC she has more than enough time for her six pregnancies, especially if she were to have one set of twins.

I expect her to marry Garmund in the late 130s, not later than 140 AC.

It is nowhere said that Morning didn't live long. Where are you getting this. The dragon seems to be hale and healthy and Rhaena would be the only dragonrider the Targaryens could use against a dragonriding pretender while the Cannibal and Silverwing remain riderless. Given Baela's personality and desire to fly again I'm sure she will make an attempt on either of those dragons if no other eggs hatch and bring forth healthy dragons.

And Viserys is basically the only male Targaryen left who is of the right age and the personality to claim another dragon. Aegon III will never do that - and it is very likely that the Broken King's fear of dragons is going to be the main cause of Alys Rivers' continuing control over Harrenhal until the time has come to try to overthrow the pretender and false king. If the dragon of Alys' son grows quickly, and they continue to have a strong garrison at Harrenhal then the castle cannot be taken by storm nor be starved out - at least not without a dragonrider on Aegon III's side - and Aegon III is never going to allow his sister to ride to war on dragonback or to challenge another dragonrider with Morning. Not after what happened to his mother.

[Mrs.Grumpy]

On 11/22/2018 at 11:35 AM, Ran said:

I suspect he'll approve in his way, given his own history.

The false Daerons must be post-regency.

What was the things you liked about Aegon’s regency. I remember you and Linda talking about it youtube. 

 

Was it the cattle show? 

 

I think it wasn’t that interesting tbh 

[Bernie Mac]

On 11/22/2018 at 10:31 AM, M.Alhazred said:

Anyone else think that Lord Cregan will feel the need to say something to Ageon III about his dismissal of Manderly? He is one of his bannermen after all or would it be better not to say anything to this "Sullen Boy"?

Cregan would probably have wanted his Lord of White Harbor back in the North and attending to his own affairs rather than the Crown's. 

His might have been a very different reign were it not for that one flaw in him—his coldness when it came to those he ruled. His brother, Prince Viserys—who in his last years served as his Hand—had the gift of charm, but he himself grew stern after his wife abandoned him and their children for her native Lys.

It sounds like Viserys does not become Hand for a number of years, are we about to see a pretty high turnover of Hands in Aegon's reign? I can see Alyn briefly getting the position and proving disastrous but as things stand at the end of the regency I have no idea who will be his first. 

[zionius]

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That's my idea, too. And it is not just that hint, but also the reference to Dark Sister and when it was recovered.

Nice catch!

Though I feel Dance 1.5 theory is too bold, I couldn't think of a better explanation for Harrenhal held by rebels for 20 years and Morning dead in 20 years...

[Ran]

9 hours ago, Mrs.Grumpy said:

What was the things you liked about Aegon’s regency. I remember you and Linda talking about it youtube. 

 

Was it the cattle show? 

 

I think it wasn’t that interesting tbh 

I enjoyed the general intrigues, the adventures of Alyn Velaryon, and in particular the way Argon and Viserys held out in Maegor's after Peake's machinations. Also feel Marston Waters is an intriguing and tragic figure.

[The Bard of Banefort]

Was Corwyn Corbray's history retconned? Wiki says he was a regent, but I don't remember that being mentioned. 

Also, who do you suspect will become Hand now that Manderly's gone? If I remember correctly, Tywin was the youngest Hand at about 20, so I'm guessing it will be a few years before Viserys is named Hand. 

[The Wondering Wolf]

I guess Kermit Tully would be an option.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, zionius said:

Nice catch!

Though I feel Dance 1.5 theory is too bold, I couldn't think of a better explanation for Harrenhal held by rebels for 20 years and Morning dead in 20 years...

I'd not say this thing has to be another Dance, just that it is likely going to be a struggle that involves multiple dragonriders. But then - it is practically confirmed that Alys Rivers and Aemond Targaryen were married considering that Gyldayn numbers Alys among the widows that came to the fore after the Dance - implying that Alys was indeed Prince Aemond's widow. Not to mention that their apparent marriage also provides us with the plot-relevant background for the fact that Aemond did not actually marry one of Borros' daughter during his time at Storm's End. There was never given a reason for that.

If it were true then Aemond's son most definitely has a better claim than the Broken King and his brother and half-sisters and their children - especially since Aegon III only came into his throne by treason and murder - Cregan Stark is right when he says that Aegon III's rise to power is a huge stain on his honor. That may come back and haunt him. Aemond's son can give exactly the same legal reasons for his claim as many people expect Aegon and Jon Snow to give in the main series. So if they have a strong claim - or are even 'the rightful king' then sure as hell this is also the case for Aemond's son.

1 hour ago, Ran said:

I enjoyed the general intrigues, the adventures of Alyn Velaryon, and in particular the way Argon and Viserys held out in Maegor's after Peake's machinations. Also feel Marston Waters is an intriguing and tragic figure.

Marston Waters could be a tragic figure, but since there are also hints he was in on the plot he may have been just a very stupid villain. One has to keep in mind that especially he had a very good reason to dread the moment King Aegon III came of age - they both knew what Marston had done while Rhaenyra was eaten by Sunfyre, and only an utter moron would delude himself a King Aegon III ruling in his own right would not allow his memories of that to influence his political decisions - meaning that Waters may have very likely been afraid to lose his head on the king's sixteenth nameday.

A King Viserys II would have needed regents some time more, and he doesn't have any memories of his mother's death.

1 hour ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Was Corwyn Corbray's history retconned? Wiki says he was a regent, but I don't remember that being mentioned.

It is mentioned more than once in the text.

1 hour ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

I guess Kermit Tully would be an option.

That is not a bad guess. Considering it will be Aegon III's call it is very difficult to say considering we have pretty much no idea who the man trusts aside from his brother and Alyn Velaryon - and Alyn cannot be the Hand until he is twenty - which he isn't by the end of the Regency, never mind that he is also on his second voyage (but he will be back home in 138 AC considering that's the year he returns Addam's remains to Driftmark).

[The Bard of Banefort]

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

 

It is mentioned more than once in the text.

 

I guess I'll have to re-visit the regency then. Was his death mentioned as well?

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I guess I'll have to re-visit the regency then. Was his death mentioned as well?

Sure. It is actually described in the book, marking the point in the Arryn succession struggle when things really explode. After all, killing a regent of the king is the same as attacking the king. This cannot be ignored.

[Ran]

Quote

Marston Waters could be a tragic figure, but since there are also hints he was in on the plot he may have been just a very stupid villain. 

I think he was a man of modest ability and with a certain level of moral weakness, rather than a villain. He was the mostly the puppet of other men, but what makes him tragic to me is that he clearly did care about the honor of being a Kingsguard knight, which informed his decision not to storm Maegor's Holdfast and risk harming the king, and made him make the right choice in the end. That Graceford and Tessario tried to argue he was the main instigator of the plot was nonsense, a view Gyldayn implicitly supports -- he was a follower, not a leader, and we do not know fully what led him to choose as he did to begin with. Yet it seems, given his conduct, that he believed what he was doing was for the king's best.

If he was truly frightened of his fate if Aegon III matured, he would not have held back in taking Maegor's Holdfast by force. So I don't consider that at all a motivation. Frankly, I don't think Aegon III was vengeance-minded anyways.

Small details like his preventing Baela Targaryen from being killed strike me as suggesting a more complicated figure than a villain or a hero. I've always had a fondness for the everyman, and Waters is another such character, a human, flawed figure without any grandiose or epic qualities.

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, Ran said:

I think he was a man of modest ability and with a certain level of moral weakness, rather than a villain. He was the mostly the puppet of other men, but what makes him tragic to me is that he clearly did care about the honor of being a Kingsguard knight, which informed his decision not to storm Maegor's Holdfast and risk harming the king, and made him make the right choice in the end. That Graceford and Tessario tried to argue he was the main instigator of the plot was nonsense, a view Gyldayn implicitly supports -- he was a follower, not a leader, and we do not know fully what led him to choose as he did to begin with. Yet it seems, given his conduct, that he believed what he was doing was for the king's best.

I don't think he was the main instigator but one really has to wonder how this entire plot could have worked if Marston wasn't in on most of it. And as Lord Commander of the Kingsguard and Hand most of the formal power outside the circle of conspirators rested with him, not whoever was moving the pieces in the Red Keep - and who that was is still a mystery, possibly Clarice Osgrey, considering that the guys all seemed to be pawns. I'm not sure this plot could have worked as well as it did at first without Marston actually knowing quite a lot. I mean, they were actually moving against the King's Hand and a Lord Regent in Thaddeus Rowan, and they basically had no authority whatsoever to do that or to actually name a new Hand of the King afterwards.

He may not have been involved in the attempt on the lives of Aegon III and Daenaera but what 'evidence' could have the other conspirators have given to him that the Rogares and Lord Rowan had been behind that? Pretty much none prior to the confession gained by torture - which Waters as Hand must have authorized.

Besieging the king in his own castle was a very dangerous thing to do, storming Maegor's even worse.

I agree that Waters could have been a pawn believing - or tricking himself into believing - to do 'the right thing' but I think there is also a pretty good chance that he realized that to command an attack on Maegor's Holdfast and the king himself while at the same time not only being a Kingsguard but also the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard. And that's just an unnatural thing to do. One can see why he would be reluctant to do this, especially when he has every reason to expect that Aegon III will have to open the gates sooner or later anyway. They were under no pressure to rush things.

And if Marston developed second thoughts about the plot during the days of the siege Viserys' revelation of the charade in front of the court may have given him the final nudge to turn his cloak and throw his lot in with Aegon III. 

7 hours ago, Ran said:

If he was truly frightened of his fate if Aegon III matured, he would not have held back in taking Maegor's Holdfast by force. So I don't consider that at all a motivation. Frankly, I don't think Aegon III was vengeance-minded anyways.

See above for his lack of motivation to storm the castle. Aegon III's desire for vengeance we don't yet know at this point - but even if he didn't feel strongly about that it makes very little sense to assume that Marston would have believed that a king who repeatedly expresses his displeasure about him serving in a high and exalted position at his court would keep him there.

Marston may have not expected to lose his head after the king had come of age - but he may have expected to be shipped to the Wall or he may have feared to find some poison in his drink...

The fact that Aegon III apparently dismissed Grand Maester Munkun from his council - Alford is Grand Maester in 153 AC with Munkun only returning in Baelor's day, at least according to TWoIaF - would also imply that the king did not tolerate men around him he thought he could not trust. The way the regents and Manderly are dismissed strongly implies the court is going to be cleansed of such elements as Aegon III and Viserys cannot trust. And Munkun would actually be pretty much at the top of that list considering how much he ingratiated himself with both Peake and Marston Waters later on.

But perhaps the Munkun-Alford-Munkun conundrum in TWoIaF is actually a mistake? I don't know that.

7 hours ago, Ran said:

Small details like his preventing Baela Targaryen from being killed strike me as suggesting a more complicated figure than a villain or a hero. I've always had a fondness for the everyman, and Waters is another such character, a human, flawed figure without any grandiose or epic qualities.

Oh, I think Marston was a reasonably good/normal man, and certainly better than the likes of Alfred Broom(e), especially back on Dragonstone. But people do change when they live at court, and Marston clearly became Peake's men during the man's reign - to what degree remains unclear.

[The Grey Wolf]

Can we actually be sure Aemond's son really is Aemond's? Considering all of Alys's previous children were stillborn and there is no mention of the boy having the Targaryen look I wouldn't be surprised if GRRM underwhelmed us by making Alys Rivers into another version of Essie.

Also, considering how many child/baby lords with female regents (Elenda Caron, Johanna Westerling, Sharis Footly, Sabitha Frey, Lady Tyrell) come out of the Dance I'm surprised Daeron I's conquest didn't get more pushback initially.

[Back door hodor]

Good discussion so far. Something I want to touch on that I haven't seen discussed in this thread yet it dragons, specifically, aegon IIIs attitude towards them.

I could see him being an very big part of why there are no more dragons after him, meaning I think its possible that he in some way sabotaged eggs or hatchlings so they would not hatch. I will be very interested to see both how mourning(reanas dragon) dies, and who becomes the next archmeaster.(maybe the maester on ds is a better suspect though).