[SPOILERS] Military matters and population development (including cities)

[Universal Sword Donor]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, yeah, my mistake. But there we see it again - Gregor fought in apparently two wars/battles - the sack of KL (no battle as such) and whatever battle he fought in on the Iron Islands (there seem to have been three - one on each of the islands Robert invaded).

That doesn't make him an expert in warfare, does it

I mean it’s all relative. He’s not commanding the armies, but he is trusted to lead the van. He’s trusted to lead a chevauchee twice across the Riverlands. Clearly he’s someone Tywin, who we can safely consider a warfare expert, entrusts him with critical roles and missions. 

When the Wo5K erupts, how many expert commander are there really?

Tywin, Robert, Ned, Stannis, Tarly, maybe Kevan?

it seems like the characters are generally ascribing warfare expertise to anyone who’s fought in battles and commanded something more than an honor guards. Frankly that’s a pretty fair assessment given how rare pitched battles actually were.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

I mean it’s all relative. He’s not commanding the armies, but he is trusted to lead the van. He’s trusted to lead a chevauchee twice across the Riverlands. Clearly he’s someone Tywin, who we can safely consider a warfare expert, entrusts him with critical roles and missions.

Yeah, I'm not doubting that Gregor is incompetent in what he does or anything. Just that his experience isn't exactly that of a professional soldier.

1 minute ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

When the Wo5K erupts, how many expert commander are there really?

Tywin, Robert, Ned, Stannis, Tarly, maybe Kevan?

it seems like the characters are generally ascribing warfare expertise to anyone who’s fought in battles and commanded something more than an honor guards. Frankly that’s a pretty fair assessment given how rare pitched battles actually were.

My whole point there was to make it clear that 'being the best soldier in the Realm' (Tarly) doesn't mean all that much if you rarely (if at all) fight any wars. I'm honestly not understanding what this assessment can be worth when Tarly clearly never commanded a proper army in a fight against a major enemy army. Such talk creates the appearance as if Tarly was this great military mind and general who fought in a hundred battles and won a lot of victories when in fact he pretty much fought in no battle that we know of. He doesn't even seem to be old enough to actually have served as a squire on the Stepstones.

And this entire civil war/rebellion warfare is not exactly proper warfare as such, considering most of the civil wars we see do involve backstabbing and betrayal - e.g. Rhaenyra taking KL, Aegon II taking Dragonstone, Tywin sacking KL, Ramsay taking Winterfell, the Red Wedding, etc. This is, in the end, just infighting, and hardly the kind of thing that actually helps people learn the art of true warfare - meaning trying to outmaneuver an enemy on his or her own turf, subduing an enemy country, etc. We actually see how bad Westerosi are at proper war in the  failed Targaryen attempts to subdue the Dornish.

The Dornish Marches seem to be the only places where there is a martial culture of note, but only due to their long wars with the Dornish. Those are over for a century so even that culture should be somewhat in decline.

And dealing with wildlings and clansmen and robbers and outlaws and the occasional rebel lord isn't exactly proper warfare.

In that sense the idea that the Westerosi knights are actually well-prepared to deal with a Dothraki invasion might actually not be all that well-founded. Those guys actually do constantly fight - both amongst each other as well as against their neighbors.

It is also a reason why the Ironborn seem to be as tough and experienced as they are. They actually live their savage warrior culture to this day - no longer (regularly) at the Westerosi coasts but abroad. The majority of them are experienced warriors and killers - unlike, I'd say, most of the Westerosi knights. Brienne never killed a man before AFfC. How many men did Loras or Garlan kill before the Blackwater/Storm's End? How many men did Ned or Stannis kill in battle? We don't know. The veterans of the War of the Ninepenny Kings seem to be the only veterans of a proper war we know in the main series. They actually invaded foreign territories and had to fight a proper enemy both on land and at sea. And they really learned a few things there.

I think the whole martial culture thing would have worked much better if there was a reason why Westerosi knights needed to stay sharp - like, say, more uncivilized/wild places where more wildlings were threatening the knights, more thick forests full of wild men which important trade routes crossed, etc. The continued existence of the clansmen of the Mountains of the Moon really gets ridiculous if one thinks about the relative size of those mountains and the continued existence and age of the Kingdom of Mountain and Vale (+ the 150 years of Targaryen dragon rule). How on earth could the Arryns not subdue those people? And why on earth did not Warden of the East ever petition a Targaryen king - Jaehaerys I, say - and his dragonriders to actually help them eradicate this nuisance using the same strategy Jaehaerys I used to deal with the second Vulture King? It should have been very easy. And Lord Rodrik lost both his father and uncle to the clansmen. One should think that would have caused him to be pretty pissed... And he was very close to the Iron Throne.

But I never questioned the setting in that regard until now. In relation to outside threats Westeros is very much a peaceful paradise. Aside from some wildlings here and there there are no real threats, and no Free City seems to have ever fought a war with either the Iron Throne or any of the Seven Kingdoms before the Conquest.

[Free Northman Reborn]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, I'm not doubting that Gregor is incompetent in what he does or anything. Just that his experience isn't exactly that of a professional soldier.

My whole point there was to make it clear that 'being the best soldier in the Realm' (Tarly) doesn't mean all that much if you rarely (if at all) fight any wars. I'm honestly not understanding what this assessment can be worth when Tarly clearly never commanded a proper army in a fight against a major enemy army. Such talk creates the appearance as if Tarly was this great military mind and general who fought in a hundred battles and won a lot of victories when in fact he pretty much fought in no battle that we know of. He doesn't even seem to be old enough to actually have served as a squire on the Stepstones.

And this entire civil war/rebellion warfare is not exactly proper warfare as such, considering most of the civil wars we see do involve backstabbing and betrayal - e.g. Rhaenyra taking KL, Aegon II taking Dragonstone, Tywin sacking KL, Ramsay taking Winterfell, the Red Wedding, etc. This is, in the end, just infighting, and hardly the kind of thing that actually helps people learn the art of true warfare - meaning trying to outmaneuver an enemy on his or her own turf, subduing an enemy country, etc. We actually see how bad Westerosi are at proper war in the  failed Targaryen attempts to subdue the Dornish.

The Dornish Marches seem to be the only places where there is a martial culture of note, but only due to their long wars with the Dornish. Those are over for a century so even that culture should be somewhat in decline.

And dealing with wildlings and clansmen and robbers and outlaws and the occasional rebel lord isn't exactly proper warfare.

In that sense the idea that the Westerosi knights are actually well-prepared to deal with a Dothraki invasion might actually not be all that well-founded. Those guys actually do constantly fight - both amongst each other as well as against their neighbors.

It is also a reason why the Ironborn seem to be as tough and experienced as they are. They actually live their savage warrior culture to this day - no longer (regularly) at the Westerosi coasts but abroad. The majority of them are experienced warriors and killers - unlike, I'd say, most of the Westerosi knights. Brienne never killed a man before AFfC. How many men did Loras or Garlan kill before the Blackwater/Storm's End? How many men did Ned or Stannis kill in battle? We don't know. The veterans of the War of the Ninepenny Kings seem to be the only veterans of a proper war we know in the main series. They actually invaded foreign territories and had to fight a proper enemy both on land and at sea. And they really learned a few things there.

I think the whole martial culture thing would have worked much better if there was a reason why Westerosi knights needed to stay sharp - like, say, more uncivilized/wild places where more wildlings were threatening the knights, more thick forests full of wild men which important trade routes crossed, etc. The continued existence of the clansmen of the Mountains of the Moon really gets ridiculous if one thinks about the relative size of those mountains and the continued existence and age of the Kingdom of Mountain and Vale (+ the 150 years of Targaryen dragon rule). How on earth could the Arryns not subdue those people? And why on earth did not Warden of the East ever petition a Targaryen king - Jaehaerys I, say - and his dragonriders to actually help them eradicate this nuisance using the same strategy Jaehaerys I used to deal with the second Vulture King? It should have been very easy. And Lord Rodrik lost both his father and uncle to the clansmen. One should think that would have caused him to be pretty pissed... And he was very close to the Iron Throne.

But I never questioned the setting in that regard until now. In relation to outside threats Westeros is very much a peaceful paradise. Aside from some wildlings here and there there are no real threats, and no Free City seems to have ever fought a war with either the Iron Throne or any of the Seven Kingdoms before the Conquest.

I don’t think Martin intends for it to be questioned, no more than how animals survive a 5 year Winter north of the Wall.

It would seem that low level warfare happens a lot more than you give credit for. Knights are supposed to be experienced warriors, who train in the yard for 8 hours a day, every day from the age of 12 or 13.

The famous “principle of expertise” should apply here, namely that if you have done something for 10,000 hours you can be considered an expert in it.

By that yardstick a knight easily has 10,000 hours of training by the time he is 18, and is therefore an expert swordfighter.

More so than some sellsword who cannot afford to spend 8 hours a day, every day training with his sword, but instead probably grew up in some Flea Bottom scrounging for food, picking pockets or working for a tanner, baker or smith, if he was lucky.

[Universal Sword Donor]

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, I'm not doubting that Gregor is incompetent in what he does or anything. Just that his experience isn't exactly that of a professional soldier.

My whole point there was to make it clear that 'being the best soldier in the Realm' (Tarly) doesn't mean all that much if you rarely (if at all) fight any wars. I'm honestly not understanding what this assessment can be worth when Tarly clearly never commanded a proper army in a fight against a major enemy army. Such talk creates the appearance as if Tarly was this great military mind and general who fought in a hundred battles and won a lot of victories when in fact he pretty much fought in no battle that we know of. He doesn't even seem to be old enough to actually have served as a squire on the Stepstones.

And this entire civil war/rebellion warfare is not exactly proper warfare as such, considering most of the civil wars we see do involve backstabbing and betrayal - e.g. Rhaenyra taking KL, Aegon II taking Dragonstone, Tywin sacking KL, Ramsay taking Winterfell, the Red Wedding, etc. This is, in the end, just infighting, and hardly the kind of thing that actually helps people learn the art of true warfare - meaning trying to outmaneuver an enemy on his or her own turf, subduing an enemy country, etc. We actually see how bad Westerosi are at proper war in the  failed Targaryen attempts to subdue the Dornish.

The Dornish Marches seem to be the only places where there is a martial culture of note, but only due to their long wars with the Dornish. Those are over for a century so even that culture should be somewhat in decline.

And dealing with wildlings and clansmen and robbers and outlaws and the occasional rebel lord isn't exactly proper warfare.

In that sense the idea that the Westerosi knights are actually well-prepared to deal with a Dothraki invasion might actually not be all that well-founded. Those guys actually do constantly fight - both amongst each other as well as against their neighbors.

It is also a reason why the Ironborn seem to be as tough and experienced as they are. They actually live their savage warrior culture to this day - no longer (regularly) at the Westerosi coasts but abroad. The majority of them are experienced warriors and killers - unlike, I'd say, most of the Westerosi knights. Brienne never killed a man before AFfC. How many men did Loras or Garlan kill before the Blackwater/Storm's End? How many men did Ned or Stannis kill in battle? We don't know. The veterans of the War of the Ninepenny Kings seem to be the only veterans of a proper war we know in the main series. They actually invaded foreign territories and had to fight a proper enemy both on land and at sea. And they really learned a few things there.

I think the whole martial culture thing would have worked much better if there was a reason why Westerosi knights needed to stay sharp - like, say, more uncivilized/wild places where more wildlings were threatening the knights, more thick forests full of wild men which important trade routes crossed, etc. The continued existence of the clansmen of the Mountains of the Moon really gets ridiculous if one thinks about the relative size of those mountains and the continued existence and age of the Kingdom of Mountain and Vale (+ the 150 years of Targaryen dragon rule). How on earth could the Arryns not subdue those people? And why on earth did not Warden of the East ever petition a Targaryen king - Jaehaerys I, say - and his dragonriders to actually help them eradicate this nuisance using the same strategy Jaehaerys I used to deal with the second Vulture King? It should have been very easy. And Lord Rodrik lost both his father and uncle to the clansmen. One should think that would have caused him to be pretty pissed... And he was very close to the Iron Throne.

But I never questioned the setting in that regard until now. In relation to outside threats Westeros is very much a peaceful paradise. Aside from some wildlings here and there there are no real threats, and no Free City seems to have ever fought a war with either the Iron Throne or any of the Seven Kingdoms before the Conquest.

The Soviets and the Americans had/have trouble with the Taliban despite having modern tech that far outstrips dragons. Asymmetric warfare lasting for generations isn’t exactly a new thing 

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I don’t think Martin intends for it to be questioned, no more than how animals survive a 5 year Winter north of the Wall.

Anyone should question stuff like that. But he sort of elaborated on that - when winter gets too bad men migrate south and steal from those who still have food.

6 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

It would seem that low level warfare happens a lot more than you give credit for. Knights are supposed to be experienced warriors, who train in the yard for 8 hours a day, every day from the age of 12 or 13.

This doesn't make any sense. For one, low level warfare, if it existed, would be mentioned occasionally - you cannot just claim something is the case without giving as any evidence that this is the case. Against that we have various characters who would have been involved in such things not mentioning/thinking about them. Even the great Jaime Lannister and Barristan Selmy didn't fight in (m)any proper wars. Hunts for outlaws are not wars, nor do they involve many people. You don't raise a proper army for stuff like that.

Secondly, training for stuff doesn't prepare you to actually do things. War is not a game, just as killing men in battle isn't something you can learn in the practice yard. Brienne is a good sword fighter but she hasn't been bloodied until AFfC and this shows and nearly gets her killed.

It is also a huge difference whether you fight against savages in bad armor/with no discipline/hunt down outlaws who run and hide when they see armored knights and or whether you face another contingent of trained and well-equipped knights who went through the same training as you did. Very few knights should actually be involved in campaigns of the latter sort.

Finally, there is little evidence that knights continue to go through that rigorous training after they have reached a certain point in age or taken on additional responsibilities like being a lord. Less than half of the knights in Westeros should be actually be spending eight hours a day in the practice yard. What would be the point of that? Most knights train for tourney, anyway, and tourneys are not war. Some things there overlap, but not all of them. Do you see Eddard Stark doing any practice in the yard? Tywin Lannister? Robert or Stannis Baratheon? Edmure Tully? Lord/King Robb Stark? King Joffrey Baratheon? 

6 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

More so than some sellsword who cannot afford to spend 8 hours a day, every day training with his sword, but instead probably grew up in some Flea Bottom scrounging for food, picking pockets or working for a tanner, baker or smith, if he was lucky.

Unlike a pompous knight who may or may not ride actually to war in his life a sellsword's entire life is the quality of the sword and the sword arm he sells. It must be in too shape or else that man's life and/or career is over.

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The Soviets and the Americans had/have trouble with the Taliban despite having modern tech that far outstrips dragons. Asymmetric warfare lasting for generations isn’t exactly a new thing 

Well, apparently nobody ever even tried to bring them to heel, or did they? And it should have been remarkably easy. The clansmen are surrounded completely by enemy territory - especially after the Conquest (before that they could have made common cause, occasionally, with the Riverlanders against the Vale). They cannot get provisions/support from outside the Seven Kingdoms. So have the dragonriders destroy all visible settlements of the clansmen - and burn all the crops and herds they have up there - while leading an army up there to deal with the survivors. Kill as many as you can and/or capture as many as you can and relocate them to other places. Any survivors you may have overlooked won't stand a chance next winter if most/all of their food sources are destroyed.

It is not that hard. Exactly the same kind of strategy as Jaehaerys I used for the second Vulture King.

I mean, the blasted failure of Orys Baratheon and his knights during the First Dornish War is also based completely on utter dumbness on his part. If either Vhagar or Meraxes or Balerion had been with him the Wyls would have all burned.

[Corvinus85]

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, that's all possible, and I'm not saying that there is not a small amount of men who are professional warriors and who actually know how to kill.

It just seems those must always be just a tiny fraction among the men who actually march to war in any of the armies.

Take a man like Jaime as an example - arguable the greatest knight of his generation. Yet it what wars did this man fight prior to the Greyjoy Rebellion? None. He didn't fight in Robert's Rebellion, and the campaign against the Kingswood Brotherhood was basically just police work (although with a bunch of cool duels and some darings raids/attacks).

I agree that only a small fraction is war knowledgeable. My point was that elites do have war experience because of many factors. Jaime may not have participated in a full blown war prior to the Wo5K, but he did learn war lessons even from the Brotherhood campaign.  

Technically, I should say Jaime didn't learn all that much from that, since he managed to get himself ambushed. Also, he likely participated in the Greyjoy rebellion, but we don't know if it was more than just fulfilling his role as a Kingsguard.

[Three-Fingered Pete]

1 minute ago, Corvinus said:

Jaime may not have participated in a full blown war prior to the, but he did learn war lessons even from the Brotherhood campaign.  

 

He must have had something going for him since he was on the short list for Warden of the East.

[Universal Sword Donor]

41 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It is not that hard. Exactly the same kind of strategy as Jaehaerys I used for the second Vulture King.

Yeah it is that hard and it's also not really worth doing.

41 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I mean, the blasted failure of Orys Baratheon and his knights during the First Dornish War is also based completely on utter dumbness on his part. If either Vhagar or Meraxes or Balerion had been with him the Wyls would have all burned.

In Planetos, they tried to do this in Dorne and it failed miserably. In the real world they've tried to do this in any number of places,. FARC lasted for 50 years. The communists in Vietnam / French Indochina did it for a decade.  The Taliban has been resisting and hiding from two superpowers since the early 80s. Really Afghanistan is a pretty good real world analogue since it's been a thorn in every conquering power's side since Alexander the Great

[Corvo the Crow]

The discussion seems to have somewhat shifted but anyway, no war experience = not a good soldier is rather nonsenical.

These guys (knights and other household men as well as militias) train on a regular basis , everyday for many hours( militias not as much but still they train).

I doubt much of the early WWII Germans had much war experience, but they had better training than most and this (though there were other factors and perhaps some veterans of france) was the reason they performed better than soviets, especially on the armored warfare aspect. 

In earlier Arab-Israeli wars, Arabs’ equipment was on par(if not better) than Israeli’s, yet their training/education was not so they are defeated again and again.

[Ran]

53 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Yeah it is that hard and it's also not really worth doing.

In Planetos, they tried to do this in Dorne and it failed miserably. In the real world they've tried to do this in any number of places,. FARC lasted for 50 years. The communists in Vietnam / French Indochina did it for a decade.  The Taliban has been resisting and hiding from two superpowers since the early 80s. Really Afghanistan is a pretty good real world analogue since it's been a thorn in every conquering power's side since Alexander the Great

Yep. Maybe the very specific way the Wyls dealt with Orys would not have worked, but they could certainly have made the place impassable and a deathtrap, and the Wyls have their tunnels to hide away in. 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Corvinus said:

I agree that only a small fraction is war knowledgeable. My point was that elites do have war experience because of many factors. Jaime may not have participated in a full blown war prior to the Wo5K, but he did learn war lessons even from the Brotherhood campaign.  

Technically, I should say Jaime didn't learn all that much from that, since he managed to get himself ambushed. Also, he likely participated in the Greyjoy rebellion, but we don't know if it was more than just fulfilling his role as a Kingsguard.

Jaime is a good fighter. Nobody ever called him a great general.

1 hour ago, Trefayne said:

He must have had something going for him since he was on the short list for Warden of the East.

Yeah. His rich as hell dad the king was indebted to and his sweet sister the queen.

41 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Yeah it is that hard and it's also not really worth doing.

It would be worth doing for House Arryn alone considering how many Arryn kings and lords have been killed by clansmen.

41 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

In Planetos, they tried to do this in Dorne and it failed miserably. In the real world they've tried to do this in any number of places,. FARC lasted for 50 years. The communists in Vietnam / French Indochina did it for a decade.  The Taliban has been resisting and hiding from two superpowers since the early 80s. Really Afghanistan is a pretty good real world analogue since it's been a thorn in every conquering power's side since Alexander the Great

Those situations are not really comparable. Dorne is not the Mountains of the Moon, and the Red Mountains/Boneway is not Dorne, either. Orys Baratheon would have never been lured into the trap that he was had he had a scout available who could fly and burn the enemy.

Your Vietnam/Afghanistan examples involve vast territories of land far away from the home front with the enemy being able retreat into other countries (like Pakistan, for instance), allowing them to regroup, recruit more men, get in supplies, etc. After all, the US were able to finance and support the mujaheddin back in the day. But nobody, presumably, would have supported the wildlings of the Mountains of the Moon had the Targaryens and Arryns decided to put an end to them once and for all.

1 minute ago, Ran said:

Yep. Maybe the very specific way the Wyls dealt with Orys would not have worked, but they could certainly have made the place impassable and a deathtrap, and the Wyls have their tunnels to hide away in. 

Those stones tumbling down on them and the dead animals, etc. barring their way wouldn't have worked if a dragonrider had scouted the surrounding area each day.

And even tunnels wouldn't have saved the Wyls if the Conqueror had actually raised another army to work in concert with Balerion and Vhagar to root them out. If Jaehaerys I could do that with the Vulture King, Aegon I and Visenya could certainly have done with with all the Dornish lords in the Red Mountains. If they put their will and their resources to the whole thing. Instead the First Dornish War was basically over in the sense of a concentrated effort to conquer Dorne after the initial campaign failed. The Targaryens apparently never led another proper army into Dorne until the days of Daeron I.

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

It would be worth doing for House Arryn alone considering how many Arryn kings and lords have been killed by clansmen.

And yet they haven't raised a large host to go commit genocide on the mountain clans? Honestly minor raids aren't really worth the time or effort and how many Arryn kings have been killed by the clans? Definitely none post AC. The closest we get is one of the Arryn daughters being seized on her way to her marriage. Honestly based on the condition of the High Road it doesn't seem like it gets that much traffic. The one thing people keep noting about it is its dangers, even beyond the mountain clans.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Those situations are not really comparable. Dorne is not the Mountains of the Moon, and the Red Mountains/Boneway is not Dorne, either. Orys Baratheon would have never been lured into the trap that he was had he had a scout available who could fly and burn the enemy.

I wasn't talking about the ambush. I was talking about the fact Dorne used asymmetric warfare for hundreds of years to keep the IT away

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Your Vietnam/Afghanistan examples involve vast territories of land far away from the home front with the enemy being able retreat into other countries (like Pakistan, for instance), allowing them to regroup, recruit more men, get in supplies, etc. After all, the US were able to finance and support the mujaheddin back in the day. But nobody, presumably, would have supported the wildlings of the Mountains of the Moon had the Targaryens and Arryns decided to put an end to them once and for all.

The Americans also have satellites to track movement, night vision, complete air superiority, and much better weapons, yet we can't wipe them out either. The clans know where they can hide themselves, their family, food and live in the mountains. Any Arryn army would need to bring all their supplies with them and they are far from home.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Those stones tumbling down on them and the dead animals, etc. barring their way wouldn't have worked if a dragonrider had scouted the surrounding area each day.

Piles of rocks are common in the mountains, or so I have heard. You can put the equivalent of ghilly netting over dead animals or anything else you want to hide. This is even assuming that the Vale could beg. steal or borrow a dragonrider to do that in the first place. You'd have to have scouts on the ground too, and they would be perfect targets for the mountain clans to ambush.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

And even tunnels wouldn't have saved the Wyls if the Conqueror had actually raised another army to work in concert with Balerion and Vhagar to root them out. If Jaehaerys I could do that with the Vulture King, Aegon I and Visenya could certainly have done with with all the Dornish lords in the Red Mountains. If they put their will and their resources to the whole thing. Instead the First Dornish War was basically over in the sense of a concentrated effort to conquer Dorne after the initial campaign failed. The Targaryens apparently never led another proper army into Dorne until the days of Daeron I.

I still have yet to hear a compelling reason why the mountain clans merit such a response in the first place. Getting Vhagar and Balerion to do anything in tandem basically is calling it a threat to the realm. The mountain clans are barely a threat to the borders of the Vale.

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

And yet they haven't raised a large host to go commit genocide on the mountain clans? Honestly minor raids aren't really worth the time or effort and how many Arryn kings have been killed by the clans? Definitely none post AC. The closest we get is one of the Arryn daughters being seized on her way to her marriage. Honestly based on the condition of the High Road it doesn't seem like it gets that much traffic. The one thing people keep noting about it is its dangers, even beyond the mountain clans.

Two lords and a couple of Arryn heirs have been killed by the clansmen in FaB alone. There are more in TWoIaF.

The high road is the main pass into the Vale from the Riverlands. If that doesn't get much traffic then there would be essentially no overland trade between the Vale and the rest of the Seven Kingdoms - while that's possible it is not very likely.

9 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

I wasn't talking about the ambush. I was talking about the fact Dorne used asymmetric warfare for hundreds of years to keep the IT away.

There were two big wars. Not centuries of war. And neither stretched over more than a couple of years. The First Dornish War was basically over after the loss of the invading armies.

9 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The Americans also have satellites to track movement, night vision, complete air superiority, and much better weapons, yet we can't wipe them out either. The clans know where they can hide themselves, their family, food and live in the mountains. Any Arryn army would need to bring all their supplies with them and they are far from home.

I'm not sure what the objectives in those American campaigns are. They don't want to conquer those lands, but they sure as hell could kill all their enemies. They do have nuclear weapons. If those wars were about wiping out people it could be easily and effectively done.

9 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Piles of rocks are common in the mountains, or so I have heard. You can put the equivalent of ghilly netting over dead animals or anything else you want to hide. This is even assuming that the Vale could beg. steal or borrow a dragonrider to do that in the first place. You'd have to have scouts on the ground too, and they would be perfect targets for the mountain clans to ambush.

Come on, I'm talking about those traps. You would have to be a moron to not see rocks dragged to certain place to throw them down on the men beneath, or to mistake rocks blocking the path as natural rock formations.

Not sure what use scouts on the ground would be if you have a dragonrider. The way to do this would be exactly Jaehaerys I's strategy with the Vulture King. Destroy all visible lairs and keeps. Drive them in one direction until they have no other place to hide. And then kill them all. It should be that hard. And even if a few of them survived/got away you could still basically destroy the clansmen culture by relocating all the surviving clansmen you captured.

And if you repeat that kind of approach each decade, say, they will likely sooner or later come down of their own free will to yield, anyway.

9 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

I still have yet to hear a compelling reason why the mountain clans merit such a response in the first place. Getting Vhagar and Balerion to do anything in tandem basically is calling it a threat to the realm. The mountain clans are barely a threat to the borders of the Vale.

The second Vulture King was no threat to the Realm, either.

Now that I think of that it gets even more silly. Prince Daemon and Caraxes actually lived in the Vale for a couple of years. He was married to the Lady of Runestone. Yet nobody in the Vale ever thought about making use of the dragon in a campaign against the clansmen? The guys who killed Lady Jeyne's father and brothers? That's just unbelievably stupid. As is the fact that Lord Rodrik apparently never asked Jaehaerys I's and his own brothers-in-law to help avenge the deaths of his father and uncle.

[Universal Sword Donor]

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Two lords and a couple of Arryn heirs have been killed by the clansmen in FaB alone. There are more in TWoIaF.

The high road is the main pass into the Vale from the Riverlands. If that doesn't get much traffic then there would be essentially no overland trade between the Vale and the rest of the Seven Kingdoms - while that's possible it is not very likely.

There were two big wars. Not centuries of war. And neither stretched over more than a couple of years. The First Dornish War was basically over after the loss of the invading armies.

I'm not sure what the objectives in those American campaigns are. They don't want to conquer those lands, but they sure as hell could kill all their enemies. They do have nuclear weapons. If those wars were about wiping out people it could be easily and effectively done.

Come on, I'm talking about those traps. You would have to be a moron to not see rocks dragged to certain place to throw them down on the men beneath, or to mistake rocks blocking the path as natural rock formations.

Not sure what use scouts on the ground would be if you have a dragonrider. The way to do this would be exactly Jaehaerys I's strategy with the Vulture King. Destroy all visible lairs and keeps. Drive them in one direction until they have no other place to hide. And then kill them all. It should be that hard. And even if a few of them survived/got away you could still basically destroy the clansmen culture by relocating all the surviving clansmen you captured.

And if you repeat that kind of approach each decade, say, they will likely sooner or later come down of their own free will to yield, anyway.

The second Vulture King was no threat to the Realm, either.

Now that I think of that it gets even more silly. Prince Daemon and Caraxes actually lived in the Vale for a couple of years. He was married to the Lady of Runestone. Yet nobody in the Vale ever thought about making use of the dragon in a campaign against the clansmen? The guys who killed Lady Jeyne's father and brothers? That's just unbelievably stupid. As is the fact that Lord Rodrik apparently never asked Jaehaerys I's and his own brothers-in-law to help avenge the deaths of his father and uncle.

Because it's not worth the time or effort?

[Lord Varys]

5 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Because it's not worth the time or effort?

I find that hard to swallow. Especially since it should have been a considerable thorn in the side of the lords of the Vale for centuries.

I mean, why did King Aerys II move against the Kingswood Brotherhood? Why do they hunt down robbers and outlaws and the like? All that is worth the effort. As was the second Vulture King. Facing periodical invasions of a not insignificant part of your kingdom isn't something that is usually ignored.

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I find that hard to swallow. Especially since it should have been a considerable thorn in the side of the lords of the Vale for centuries.

I mean, why did King Aerys II move against the Kingswood Brotherhood? Why do they hunt down robbers and outlaws and the like? All that is worth the effort. As was the second Vulture King. Facing periodical invasions of a not insignificant part of your kingdom isn't something that is usually ignored.

I don't. Kingswood is a lot easier to traverse than the high road and the small folk were more than willing to turn them over once they were given some boons. 

As to the vulture king, I can't really comment since I don't have FAB around me, but if it was was an invasion that differs substantially than raids of the MC.

the mountain clans were lawless brigands, descending from the heights to rob and kill and melting away like snow whenever the knights rode out from the Vale in search of them.  

the clans that dwelt in the mountain fastnesses were brigands and murderers who bowed to no law but the sword.

Ser Donnel thought it would be easy: "If it were up to me, I would take a hundred men into the mountains, root them out of their fastnesses, and teach them some sharp lessons."

Clearly it is not since Jon Arryn nor any other lord bothered to do so.

You could ask the same thing about Skagos or the Wildlings. Periodic raids seem far more acceptable than mounting the large, costly expeditions to essentially commit genocide over a huge mountain range.

[HexMachina]

6 hours ago, Trefayne said:

 

He must have had something going for him since he was on the short list for Warden of the East.

Yep. His name

[Corvo the Crow]

Is it safe to carry information over to the other thread?